The quantitative analysis about evolution of historical population on Ming dynasty in China -- applied in historical demography about system scientific method.

Hong M
[Unpublished] 1993. Presented at the International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal, Canada, August 24 - September 1, 1993. Sponsored by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. 16 p.

An indirect analysis method based on the characteristics of the historical population of the Ming dynasty is presented by means f a hypothesis and the revised historical population data of the Population History of China. Results obtained about this historical population include 1) the model established about the evolutionary process of the population; 2) the reconstructed data of the population during disconnected years; and 3) reconstruction of the sex composition of the historical population. Historical population levels and the sex structure were reconstructed from AD 1368 to AD 1664. The average crude birth rate and mortality rate of male and female population was estimated in 8 different periods of the Ming dynasty. During the period 1368-98 the population increased from 63,827,000 to 8,040,000. During 1399-1404 it dropped by 12,101,000; only to increase again during the subsequent periods of 1406-12 by 14,860,000; 1413-60 by 14,856,000; 1461-1510 by 4,841,000; 1511-62 by 3,259,000; and 1563-1626 by 3,091,000. However, during 1627-46 the population declined again by 11,387,000, from 99,873,000 to 88,486,000. The analysis of the evolutionary process of the population exhibited a rising or falling trend. The evolution of population showed that 1) it had a closed population pattern; 2) the number of males was higher than that of females; 3) the trend of growth and decrease of males and females was the same as that of the total population in the period; 4) the crude birth rate of the male population was greater than that of females in each period of the Ming Dynasty. The male crude death rate was also greater than females in each period. The model using the method of system identification and system emulation allowed studying the evolutionary process of a historical population. The data were restored according to the principles of limitation and full causality.

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