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SAIS Review. 2004 Summer-Fall; 24(2):9-25.Russia is at the brink of a steep demographic decline--a peacetime population hemorrhage framed by a collapse of the birth rate and a catastrophic surge in the death rate. The following pages will attempt to demonstrate that post-Communist Russia is today beset by what may fairly be characterized as severe, dramatic, and even critical population problems. Russian social conditions, economic potential, military power, and international influence are today all subject to negative demographic constraints--and these constraints stand only to worsen over the years immediately ahead. Altering Russia's demographic trajectory would be a formidable task under any circumstances. Unfortunately, as of yet, neither Russia's political leadership nor the voting public that sustains it have really even begun to address the enormous magnitude of the country's demographic challenges. (author's)
JINKO MONDAI KENKYU/JOURNAL OF POPULATION PROBLEMS. 1996 Apr; 52(1):1-40.The Institute of Population Problems carried out the second public opinion survey on population issues in Japan on 15 June, 1995....[It] aimed at grasping current public opinions on population issues, and it also intended to derive [the] most recent reproduction indices in Japan, for the purpose of contributing to the population projections and the effective planning and management of the administration. Information is included on marriage intentions and timing, fertility decline, population size, urbanization, and attitudes toward the provision of foreign aid for population control. (SUMMARY IN ENG) (EXCERPT)
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT. 1990 Fall; 12(1):5-8.Cornucopians such as Julian Simon and Ben J. Wattenberg hold the opinion that the population explosion will lead to a better quality of life for everyone in the long run. They contend that hardships should be viewed as merely the incentive to attain economic prosperity through less expensive and more abundant resources. A necessary part of this argument is that the human population must continue to grow or it will begin to decline economically. In terms of the U.S., this includes birth, prolongation of life, and immigration. Support for this type of thinking is growing in the media and in the political halls of our country. Starting with demographic data up to 1960 and then predicting the future has shown some interesting results. The equation predicted a human population in 1980 of 3.969 billion (The actual was 445 million higher). The prediction for 1990 was 5.033 billion (in 1987 the population passed this figure). The time for the human population to double has been getting shorter each time it happens. It took from 1880 to 1950 to go from 1.25 billion to 2.5 billion--but only 37 years to get to 5 billion. The equation predicts another doubling in 20 years. However, if we take a linearly decreasing doubling times to its mathematical conclusion, then the world will end in 40 years. The process will have reached a region of instability well before 2026 when the human population will become infinite. So it seems that the cornucopian's theory is doomed to failure.
POPULI. 1989 Jun; 16(2):30-7.An explosion of demographic information has taken place in the last 10 years. Yet, the public does not seem to be concerned about population growth. Population must compete with many other issues which have also "exploded." In 1983, an article in the New York Times carried a headline that assumed that the UN had lowered its world population projection for the year 2000. No such downturn actually took place. Other such mistakes are also reported. In 1982, an article in the Christian Science Monitor had a headline that suggested that the population bomb had fizzled. However, it did publish another article stating that the population bomb had not fizzled. However, it did publish another article stating that the population bomb had not fizzled. The public has grown tired of crises. They are inclined to "tune out" the dire predictions of experts. An editorial page article from the Mobil Corporation is an example. Popular opinion on world population growth is the result of a process of what can be gleaned from the mass media. The consistent, accurate dissemination of world demographic pattern information to the public should be a high priority for the field of demographics, but is not. The mechanics of population change should be separated from the effects of that change. The demographic community should impart an understanding of the world situation and how it came about. Among the concepts that are not well understood, but not too complex are the fact that population growth has taken place in developed and developing countries in different ways. Too often population projections are taken too literally. An understanding of the simple arithmetic of population growth is basic to considering the impact of population growth upon countries. Now is the time to increase population understanding. Knowledge of population growth should not be left to demographers alone.
WIRTSCHAFT UND STATISTIK. 1987 Aug; (8):610-7.The authors examine recent population growth in the Federal Republic of Germany and present population statistics, the most recent of which are for 1986. A section on natural increase includes information on marriages and marriage age; births, including data on national origin; mothers' age structure; deaths, including stillbirths and infant deaths; births among resident foreigners; and public opinion concerning population size and growth. A section on growth due to migration examines internal migration and the international migration of German citizens and foreigners. Data and estimates are based on a variety of official and nonofficial sources.
[Three projections of population decline for Quebec: characteristics and implications for the working population] Trois scenarios de decroissance de la population quebecoise: caracteristiques et incidences sur la population active.
CAHIERS QUEBECOIS DE DEMOGRAPHIE. 1986 Oct; 15(2):181-212.After a brief review of various projections of population decline for Quebec, the author analyses some previous examples of depopulation, and emphasizes that public opinion will have to change much if immigration is to be used as a tool for avoiding population decline. He then investigates four implications of the projected decline: the size of the working population, its age and sex structure, the labor force participation ratio, and the economic dependency ratio. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Orlando, Florida/London, England, Academic Press, 1985. xii, 201 p.This book provides a survey of the subject of population decline in the context of the demographic history of the United States and Europe including the USSR since the mid-1800s. Following an overview of common misunderstandings concerning population decline, the authors "proceed in Chapters 2 and 3 to demonstrate the complex ways in which fears of population decline emerged in the period 1870-1940. In Chapter 4, [they] describe developments in the period 1945-1965, when these fears temporarily receded." Two subsequent chapters deal with aspects of the observed fertility decline since 1965 and various policy responses. In the concluding section, the authors "summarize the long debate over the nature and possible dangers of population decline, and then turn to the question of likely demographic trends, and what to do about them, in the foreseeable future." Fertility data and the texts of selected official policy statements on the subject are included in appendixes. (EXCERPT)
[Demographic trends and policy responses] Tendenzen der Bevolkerungsentwicklung und politische Reaktionen/Tendances demographiques et reponses politiques/Tendenze demografiche e risposte politiche
Bern, Switzerland, Bundesamt fur Statistik, 1982. 39 p. (Beitrage zur Schweizerischen Statistik/Contributions a la Statistique Suisse/Contributi alla Statistica Svizzera no. 95)This document is the text of a report prepared by the Swiss government on the objectives and measures of its policies affecting demographic trends. The Swiss population increased by 1.42%/year between 1950-60 and 1.45% from 1960-70, but by 1970-80 the growth rate had declined to .15%/year. Switzerland, with a population in 1980 of 6,366,000, has been a country of immigration for over a century. The declining population growth rate of the 1970s was caused by increasing controls on the number of foreign immigrants and guest workers and by a decline in the birth rate. The Swiss population is aging; in 1980 13.7% were 65 or over and only 27.7% were under 20. The proportion of never married adults has increased, the number of divorces has increased, and the age at 1st marriage has increased to 27.4 for men and 24.9 for women in 1979. Women in 1980 had an average of 1.53 children each, up from 1.49 in 1978. Life expectancy in 1979 was 72.1 for men and 78.7 for women, and infant mortality in 1980 was 9/1000 live births. The Swiss government has tended to play a passive role in matters of population, with the exception of the rapid increase in foreigners in the 1960s and 70s. Few studies of the attitudes of the Swiss population toward the country's demographic development have been done, but 5 surveys undertaken betwen 1970-81 demonstrate widespread support of the government's restrictive migration policies. Apart from its desire for a balance between the native and foreign populations, the Swiss government has not indicated its demographic preferences for the future. However, issues of fertility and family constitution have played a role in some measures such as family allowances. The migration policy, in addition to seeking a balance between the foreign and native populations, also aims to assure the integration of longterm foreign residents into the Swiss population. No official institute of demographic studies exists in Switzerland, but a number of agencies and commissions carry out some demographic functions. Responsibility for demographic functions is shared by federal and local governments.
[Demographic goals and population-relevant policy of the member states of the Council of Europe: a comparison of 11 selected government reports prepared for the European Population Conference in Strasbourg on September 21-24, 1982] Demographische Ziele und bevolkerungsrelevante Politik der Mitgliedslander des Europarates--ein Vergleich 11 ausgewahlter Regierungsberichte fur die Europaische Bevolkerungskonferenz in Strassburg vom 21. bis 24. September 1982
Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft. 1982; 8(3):412-27.The demographic goals and population-related policies of 11 countries are summarized and compared using as a source the government reports prepared for the 1982 European Population Conference. Consideration is also given to future population trends, government positions, and public opinion. Countries examined include Austria, Belgium, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Great Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey. (ANNOTATION)