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  1. 1
    321101

    Program scan matrix on child marriage: A web-based search of interventions addressing child marriage.

    International Center for Research on Women [ICRW]

    [Washington, D.C.], International Center for Research on Women [ICRW], [2007]. 25 p.

    The international community and U.S. government are increasingly concerned about the prevalence of child marriage and its toll on girls in developing countries. One in seven girls in the developing world marries before 15. Nearly half of the 331 million girls in developing countries are expected to marry by their 20th birthday. At this rate, 100 million more girls-or 25,000 more girls every day-will become child brides in the next decade. Current literature on child marriage has primarily examined the prevalence, consequences and reported reasons for early marriage. Much less has been analyzed about the risk and protective factors that may be associated with child marriage. Also, little is known about the range of existing programs addressing child marriage, and what does and does not work in preventing early marriage. The work presented here investigates two key questions: What factors are associated with risk of or protection against child marriage, and ultimately could be the focus of prevention efforts? What are the current programmatic approaches to prevent child marriage in developing countries, and are these programs effective? (excerpt)
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  2. 2
    171805

    The Secretary-General's global call to action against HIV / AIDS. Fact sheet.

    United Nations Special Session on HIV / AIDS (2001: New York)

    New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Public Information, 2001 Jun 9. [2] p. (DPI/2214/F)

    This fact sheet presents five priorities for action, six key factors to achieve these goals, and recommends partnering to carry out the campaign.
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  3. 3
    042591

    An evaluation of Pathfinder's early marriage education program in Indonesia, November-December 1984.

    Dornsife C; Mahmoed A

    Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, Pathfinder Fund, 1986 Feb. 41 p. (Pathfinder Fund Working Papers No. 4)

    Indonesian government officials determined in the early 1970's that an increase in marriage age as well as in the use of contraceptives would be needed to reduce the country's growth rate. In 1974, the Marriage Law Reform Act increased the minimun marriageable age, but compliance was rare. In 1981, Pathfinder initiated a campaign to address this. The 1st objective was to educate influentials (e.g. religious leaders). The 2nd objective was to gather information and promote discussion of societal norms that lead to early marriage and childbearing. The underlying assumptions were that non-compliance arose from a lack of knowledge about the marriage law and that norms promoting early marriage and fertility were amenable to change. The program reviewed in this working paper covers 6 projects with 5 prominent Indonesian organizations--3 women's groups, a national public health association, and a branch of the Family Planning Coordinating Board. The activities began with national seminars to discuss objectives. National and local-level activities followed, ranging from the publication of a national bulletin to training marriage counselors. Women's groups incorporated the education program into their ongoing functions. Program effects were widespread. Evaluators' assessment in 1984 found that the controversial topic of adolescent fertility has been intensively discussed at national and local levels. Their recommendations include: focusing work on large-impact organizations, evaluation of certain projects, support for various projects, concentrating on key issues. The training project management should be integrated into Pathfinder's schedule. Studies should be performed to make sure this desin is not too ambitious. Baseline data should be incorporated. The 2-year approach should be extended to 5, since the impact of marriage age legislation will not be felt for several years.
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  4. 4
    040810

    Global estimates and projections of population by sex and age: the 1984 assessment.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. ix, 385 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/70.)

    The report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high, and low variants for population growth for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1980. The data for smaller countries or areas are included in the regional population totals and are not given separately. This report supplements the report on the WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS AS ASSESSED IN 1984, which presents methods, data, assumptions, and a summary of major findings of the estimates and projections, as well as selected demographic indicators for every country or area of the world. The sex and age distributions of population in this report are based on the 10th round of the global demographic assessments undertaken by the UN Secretariat. They are derived from data that were available to the UN generally by the beginning of 1985; therefore, the figures presented supercede those that were previously published by the UN.
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  5. 5
    196123

    1987 ESCAP population data sheet.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Population Division, 1988. 1 p.

    This sheet gives the 1987 demographic estimates for Asian and Pacific countries and areas. Countries and areas are grouped under ESCAP, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia and the Pacific. Estimates are offered for mid-1987 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, male and female life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, % aged 0-14, % aged 65+, density, and population projected to 2010. Also included are 2 charts depicting the estimated and projected population of the ESCAP region by broad age group for 1960, 1985, and 2010, and the estimated and projected total fertility rate of ESCAP subregions, 1960 to 2010. Some estimates for the ESCAP region include a mid-1987 population of 2,805,056,000; a 1.82% average annual growth rate; a 27.5 crude birth rate; a 9.3 crude death rate; a fertility rate of 3.3; male and female life expectancies of 61.8 and 64.1, respectively; an infant mortality rate of 72; 89 persons/square kilometer; 33.5% of the population aged 0-14, 4.8% of the population aged 65+; and a population projected to reach 3,866,375,000 by 2010.
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  6. 6
    201463

    Mortality and health issues in Asia and the Pacific: report of a seminar held at Beijing in collaboration with the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China from 22 to 27 October 1986.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 169 p. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 78.; ST/ESCAP/485.)

    The Seminar on Mortality and Health Issues was held at Beijing from 22 to 27 October 1986 as a cooperative venture between the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China, as part of the project, "Analysis of Trends and Patterns of Mortality in the ESCAP Region." Part 1 of the report includes a summary of the Beijing recommendations on health and mortality and the report of the seminar. Part 2 contains papers on a comparative analysis on trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP region, an overview of the epidemiological situation in the region, health for all by the year 2000, and inequalities in health.
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  7. 7
    201464

    Trends and patterns of mortality in the ESCAP Region: comparative analysis.

    Ruzicka L; Kane P

    In: Mortality and health issues in Asia and the Pacific: report of a seminar held at Beijing in collaboration with the Institute of Population Research, People's University of China from 22 to 27 October 1986. New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. 33-105. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 78.; ST/ESCAP/485.)

    This study outlines the mortality transition in 6 developing countries: Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. The path and pattern of the mortality transition in these countries is compared to the transition in other countries in the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region. These 6 countries have striking similarities to others in the region: 1) they have all been exposed to colonialism in the past; 2) 30 or 40 years ago they were very similar in their demographic characteristics, and only in the last decade or so have they become increasingly heterogenous; and 3) they have suffered from the stagnation of economic growth and inflation. In at least 1 of the 6 countries, the Republic of Korea, mortality probably started declining early in this century. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, during the British colonial administration of the 1920s, the early decline of mortality was probably limited to urban areas. The onset of the mortality transition is more difficult to date in Thailand and Indonesia, but it probably did not begin before the mid-1940s. It is unlikely that major improvements in Chinese mortality began before the 1950s. In all 6 countries age and sex specific mortality rates declined, though the pattern of these changes varies greatly among them. In most instances, significant reductions in infancy and early childhood mortality occurred, lesser ones among adults, and least affected were older people. In some countries, the reduction of female mortality at some or all ages was proportionately greater than that of males, with a subsequent widening of the gap between the survival chances of males and females. There have been no major changes in the age and sex structure of the 6 populations other than those which have originated from the recent decline in fertility in some of them. The reduced numbers of higher order births, birth spacing, and the postponement of marriage and of births to very young mothers must have reduced infant, child, and maternal mortality. A significant contribution to the general decline of mortality accrues from 2 major trends: 1) rising urbanization, and 2) increasing adult literacy, especially of women. On the available evidence, it appears that in all the countries except Bangladesh the nutritional situation of the population has improved. Health care planning has been an integral part of developmental plans in all 6 countries of the ESCAP region. The health delivery systems in all 6 countries have greatly expanded in the last 35 years. 3 characteristics have made the mortality decline unique: the magnitude, speed, and universality of the decline.
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  8. 8
    014195

    Construction of the new United Nations model life table system.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):54-65.

    Previous systems of model life tables were based on empirical data from the now developed countries (the Coale and Demeny models) or, when patterns from less developed countries were included (the original UN set and the Lederman set), included data of poor or unknown quality. However, with the advent of new demographic techniques of data evaluation and of improved survey, census, and vital registration systems, it has become possible to construct a new model life table system based on reliable data from less developed countries and hence more applicable to demographic analysis within that milieu. The new UN model life tables are based on carefully evaluated age-sex specific mortality data found in developing countries. Analysis of these data indicated 4 major age patterns of mortality. These patterns have been labelled the Latin American pattern, the Chilean pattern, the South Asian pattern, and the Far Eastern pattern, according to the geographical region predominant in each pattern. An overall average pattern, labelled the general pattern, has also been constructed. Along with the model life tables themselves, the UN is also producing models of sex differences in life expectancy, single-year mortality, and stable populations. A manual of computer programs to facilitate use of these models is also being prepared. (author's)
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  9. 9
    267154

    Population trends and issues, statement made at the Meeting of the Netherlands Association of Demographers, The Hague, Netherlands, 14 September, 1983.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1983]. 7 p. (Speech Series No. 97)

    If world population is to stabilize by the end of the next century, it will be necessary to strengthen and sustain the downward trend in fertility already begun in most developing countries. Whatever reductions have been achieved in the rate of population growth are the result of fertility declines accompanied by moderate reduction in mortality. Added to the challenge of high birth, mortality and growth rates in some parts of the developing world, a number of issues of equal importance have emerged since the United Nations World Population Conference held in Bucharest in 1974. There are, for example, issues relating to aging, international and local migration, including urbanization, and the interrelationships between population, resources, the environment and development. Most of these problems have national as well as international dimensions. The Government of the Netherlands has taken important steps to alleviate some of these problems. For example, it considers that social and economic policy should constantly take in requirements resulting from changes in the age structure of the population. The Government has been a major donor to the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) since its inception and has contributed nearly US$105 million in 14 years.
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  10. 10
    026268

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  11. 11
    031396

    The changing roles of women and men in the family and fertility regulation: some labour policy aspects

    Oppong C

    In: Family and population. Proceedings of the "Scientific Conference on Family and Population," Espoo, Finland, May 25-27, 1984, edited by Hellevi Hatunen. Helsinki, Finland, Vaestoliitto, 1984. 62-83.

    There is growing evidence that labor policies, such as those advocated by the International Labor Organization (ILO), promote changes in familial roles and that these changes in turn have an impact on fertility. A conceptual model describing these linkages is offered and the degree to which the linkages hypothesized in the model are supported by research findings is indicated. The conceptual model specifies that: 1) as reliance on child labor declines, through the enactment of minimum age labor laws, the economic value of children declines, and parents adopt smaller family size ideals; 2) as security increases for the elderly, through the provision of social security and pension plans, the elderly become less dependent on their children, and the perceived need to produce enough children to ensure security in old age is diminished; and 3) as sexual equality in job training and employment and the availability of flexible work schedules increase, sexual equality in the domestic setting increases, and women begin to exert more control over their own fertility. ILO studies and many other studies provide considerable evidence in support of these hypothesized linkages; however, the direction or causal nature of some of the associations has not been established. Development levels, rural or urban residence, and a number of other factors also appear to influence many of these relationships. Overall, the growing body of evidence accords well with ILO programs and instruments which promote: 1) the enactment of minimum age work laws to reduce reliance on child labor, 2) the establishment of social security systems and pension plans to promote the economic independence of the elderly, 3) the promotion of sexual equality in training programs and employment; 4) the promotion of the idea of sexual equality in the domestic setting; and 5) the establishment of employment policies which do not unfairly discriminate against workers with family responsibilities.
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  12. 12
    031005

    A survey of population in the ESCAP region.

    Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.

    In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.
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  13. 13
    032288

    Prospects of population growth and changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries.

    Otomo A; Obayashi S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.
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  14. 14
    032290

    Prospects of mortality in developing countries.

    Ueda K

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 39-57, 326-7. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    A comparative study on mortality trends of developing countries was conducted by making use of UN projections of mortality measures. These mortality measures projected by the UN were used to observe future prospects of general mortality trends in selected countries. Under several research projects of the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), some attempts were made to analyze recent trends of cause-specific mortality covering several selected countries. Estimates of future changes in cause-specific mortality may be considered useful to supply basic information needed for social and economic development planning of a country. Trends of mortality changes in the 1950s and 1960s were characterized in many countries by a rapid decline. Such a declining trend of mortality was brought about initially by a successful control of infectious and parasitic diseases accompanied by improvements in living conditions of the people in general. Thus the mortality of less developed countries that had been affected to a greater extent directly by infectious and parasitic diseases could be improved more drastically at such a stage. After the 1970s the pace of decline in mortality slowed down gradually to a considerable extent all over the world but was more prominent among more developed countries. In most countries mentioned in this discussion, regardless of whether they are more or less developed, the crude death rate is expected to reach the lowest level within a few decades. In many instances of developing countries, the crude death rate is assumed to reach such a minimum level in and around 2000. After reaching the lowest level, the crude death rate will turn to increase in varying degrees. Such a rise in crude death rate does not imply deterioration of mortality conditions. The crude death rate is often affected by the sex-age composition of the population. In contrast to the crude death rate, in most countries selected here, the expectation of life at birth is expected to expand steadily towards the future during the whole duration of this projection. An analytical observation was made on the cause-specific mortality for 10 selected countries covering the period from 1970 to the latest year for which basic data were available on the 8th (1965) revision of International Statistical Classification. Future prospects of cause structure of deaths will be very much influenced by proccesses effected by policy making and planning, and projections of cause-specific mortality should be made with an aim toward providing useful information for policy making and planning for national development.
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  15. 15
    032293

    Future prospects of the number and structure of the households in developing countries.

    Kono S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
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  16. 16
    268351

    Breastfeeding: growth of exclusively breastfed infants.

    Huffman SL

    Mothers and Children. 1985 Nov-Dec; 5(1):5, 7.

    Currently standards from industrialized countries are used to assess the growth patterns of breastfed infants in developing countries. Infant growth faltering is interpreted as an indicator of insufficient lactational capacity on the mother's part. 2 recent articles suggest the need for a critical reappraisal of current growth standards and their use for evaluating the adequacy of infant feeding practices. The most commonly used standards to evaluate infant growth are derived from the US National Center for Health Statistics based on anthropometric data collected in the US population 3-month intervals up to the age of 3. During this period, infant feeding practices varied greatly. Many babies were bottle-fed and given supplemental feedings early in life. No large sample of exclusively breastfed infants has been studied from birth on, and thus a standard for breastfed infants is not available. A study of fully breastfed infants was done in England and suggests that there are differences in growth rates. Among a population of 48 exclusively breastfed boys and girls, for the 1st 3 to 4 months of life, growth of breastfed infants was greater than National Center for Health Statistics Standards, while after 4 months growth velocity decelerated more quickly than the standard. The growth of infants studied in Kenya, New Guinea and the Gambia appears to falter at 2-3 months of age using the NCHS standard. Findings suggest that current FAO/WHO recommended energy intakes may be excessive. Recent studies in the US support this assertion. The adequacy of the milk production for the infants in this US study done in Texas was illustrated by their growth rates. Length for age percentiles were higher than the NCHS standards throughout the study though at birth they did not differ significantly. 1 reason these breastfed infants were able to maintain growth despite less than recommended energy intakes is that the ratio of weight gain/100 calories of milk consumed was 10-30% higher among the breastfed infants compared to formula fed infants, suggesting a more efficient use of breastmilk than formula. There is a need for studies of exclusively breastfed infants with larger samples to determine what growth pattern should be considered the norm.
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  17. 17
    033687

    Demographic trends and their development implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)

    This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
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  18. 18
    034572

    China: long-term development issues and options. The report of a mission sent to China by the World Bank.

    Lim E; Wood A; Porter I; Taylor RP; Byrd W; Tidrick G; King T; Tims W; Pohl G

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. xiii, 183 p. (World Bank Country Economic Report)

    This report summarizes the conclusions of a World Bank study undertaken in 1984 to identify the key development issues China is expected to face in the next 20 years. Among the areas addressed by chapters in this monograph are agricultural prospects, energy development, spatial issues, international economic strategy, managing industrial technology, human development, mobilizing financial resources, and development management. China's economic prospects are viewed as dependinding upon success in mobilizing and effectively using all available resources, especially people. This in turn will depend on sucess in reforming the system of economic management, including progress in 3 areas: 1) greater use of market regulation to stimulate innovation and efficiency; 2) stronger planning, combining indirect with direct economic control; and 3) modification and extension of social institutions and policies to maintain the fairness in distribution that is basic to socialism in the face of the greater inequality and instability that may result from market regulation and indirect controls. Over the next 2 decades, China can be expected to become a middle-income country. The government has set the goal of quadrupling the gross value of industrial and agricultural output between 1980 and 2000 and increasing per capita income from US$300 to $800. China's size and past emphasis on local self-sufficiency offer opportunities for enormous economic gains through increased specialization and trade among localities. Increased rural-urban migration seems probable and desirable, although an increase in urban services and infrastructure will be required. The expected slow rate of population increase is an important foundation for China's favorable economic growth prospects. On the other hand, it may not be desirable to hold fertility below the replacement level for very long, given the effects this would have on the population's age structure. The increase in the proportion of elderly people will be a serious social issue in the next century, and reforms of the social security system need to be considered.
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  19. 19
    200356

    Causes of mortality change: observations based on the experience of selected countries in the ESCAP Region.

    Ruzicka LT

    In: Mortality and health issues: review of current situation and study guidelines. Bangkok, Thailand, U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1985. 93-97. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 63.)

    In the past 30 years or so, mortality has declined in all countries, and the member countries of Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) are no exception to this general trend. Standardization is most often used in a limited fashion to account for the effect on demographic indices of a changing age and sex structure of the population; this chapter uses it to examine the fast decline in mortality. A decline in mortality may be due to any of the following processes: 1) reduction of exposure to risk, or an increased proportion of the population protected from the risk by immunization or other preventive measures; 2) introduction of effective treatment may result in the considerable reduction of case fatality, and hence of mortality from a given disease; and 3) intervention along both lines. Foremost among the studies of variation of mortality levels among the countries at various stages of socioeconomic development are those associating measures of national income and life expectancy at birth. Economic advance appears not to be a major factor in more recent mortality reductions; a large part of the decline has resulted from the application of broad-based public health programs of insect control, environmental sanitation, and immunization. Mother's educational level, family income, family size, and pattern of child spacing have demonstrable effects on the probability of child survival. Further advancement to understand the complex fabric of social and bioligical processes involved in health protection and health impairments that often lead to death requires joint formulation at the planning stage of methodologies and concepts combining suitable factors from different disciplines. The multidisciplinary approach to research in mortality would lend assurance to the results of studies and would provide a firmer basis for the development of relevant policies to reduce morbidity and mortality.
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  20. 20
    008184
    Peer Reviewed

    A randomized, double-blind study of six combined oral contraceptives.

    World Health Organization [WHO]. Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction. Task Force on Oral Contraceptives

    Contraception. 1982 Mar; 25(3):231-41.

    A randomized, controlled, clinical trial comparing 6 combined oral contraceptives (OCs) with 50 mcg or less of ethinyl estradiol was undertaken in 10 WHO Collaborating Centers for Clinical Research in Human Reproduction. A total of 2430 women entered the trial and were observed for 28,077 woman-cycles. All low-dose combined OCs demonstrated equivalent efficacy with 1-year pregnancy rates of 1-6%. However, discontinuation rates for medical reasons differed significantly between the treatment groups with the preparation containing 20 mcg ethinyl estradiol and that containing 400 mcg norethisterone acetate being associated with higher discontinuation rates due to bleeding disturbances. Even among the preparations which did not differ in discontinuation rates, the reasons for discontinuation did differ. Women receiving norethisterone preparations tended to discontinue because of bleeding disturbances while those receiving the levonorgestrel-containing preparations tended to discontinue because of complaints of nausea and vomiting. (author's)
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  21. 21
    782923

    Afghanistan: a demographic uncertainty.

    SPITLER JF; FRANK NB

    Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12p

    Compiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
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  22. 22
    783432

    Fertility differentials in Karnataka 1971: a census analysis.

    KANBARGI R

    Seminar Paper, Bombay, India, International Institute for Population Studies, June 1978. 9 p

    In the 1971 census in India, data on current fertility were collected for the 1st time. Various factors affecting fertility (fertility differentials) were revealed after studying the data: 1) Rural and urban residence data show higher fertility in rural areas, with total marital fertility rate estimated to be 4.56 and 4.09 in rural and urban populations, respectively. The difference was mainly due to lower fertility among the currently married women of urban areas in the age group of 18 years and above. 2) Educational attainment of women data indicate that fertility among the illiterate group was lower as compared to those women who have read up to the graduate level in rural areas, whereas urban fertility was lower in all categories except graduate level or above. 3) Age at marriage data indicate that in Karnataka the total marital fertility rates declined sharply as age at marriage increased in both urban and rural areas. 4) Religion data show that total marital fertility by religion and place of residence was lowest among Hindu women. Christians exhibited highest fertility in rural areas, and Muslims had the highest urban fertility. 5) Differentials in scheduled caste, tribe, and nonscheduled population show lower fertility rates among nonscheduled as compared to scheduled population. Among the scheduled castes and tribes, the latter show higher fertility.
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  23. 23
    800088

    Guyana.

    Intercom. 1980 Jan; 8(1):14.

    Guyana, a former British colony of about 830,000 population, in the 1970 Census had a composition of 52% East Indian, 31% African, and the balance Amerindian, Portuguese, Chinese, and mixed descent. The crude birth rate is believed to have peaked in 1957-59 at 44.5/1000; by 1978 the birth rate had dropped to about 28.3/1000. The World Fertility Survey of 1975 found that a total fertility rate of 7.1 children/woman in 1961 dropped to 4.4 in 1974. The largest decline in childbearing was in the over 30 age group and the under 20's. Knowledge of contraceptive methods is high; over 95% of a sample of ever-married women had heard of some method. Contraceptive usage is not as high as knowledge; of women exposed and with a partner, 38% said they were contracepting. The pill (11%) and female sterilization (10%) were the 2 most popular effective methods. Usage was lowest among women in common law marriages and visiting unions. Guyanese women overall preferred 4.6 children. Women age 20 thought 3.4 ideal; those over 40 reported 5.8 children as their choice. African women, who marry later than Indian women, preferred more children, 4.8, compared to 4.6 for Indian women. Rural women wanted 4.9 children while urban women wanted 4.3. The crude birth and death rates combine to give a rate of natural increase of 2.1% per year.
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  24. 24
    266260

    Innovative projects--Companigonj health project, Noakhali.

    Chowdhury SA

    [Unpublished] 1978. Paper presented at National Workshop on Innovative Projects in Family Planning and Rural Institutions in Bangladesh, Dacca, Bangladesh, Feb. 1-4, 1978. 21 p.

    The author describes the establishment of a rural health service in Companigonj thana in Bangladesh done jointly by the government and international relief agencies. Provision was made for integrated health services including family planning, child health services, maternal health services, nutrition programs, and both curative and preventive medicine. Field workers, mostly female, were trained to provide medical services not requiring a doctor's presence. The author finds a marked increase in attendance at the health service over a period of years. The government should intensify its participation in the health service component for the program to have a chance of taking hold. Tables to illustrate the experience of the program in money expended; numbers of patients; cost per patient; clinic attendance by age, sex; hospital deliveries; new family planning acceptors; contraceptive usage; mortality and birth rate and causes of death by age; and antenatal follow up.
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  25. 25
    267120

    Population and global future, statement made at the First Global Conference on the Future: through the '80s, Toronto, Canada, 21 July 1980.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1980]. 6 p. (Speech Series No. 57)

    The United Nations has always considered population variables to be an integral part of the total development process. UNFPA has developed, in response to national needs, a core program of population assistance which has found universal support and acceptance among the 130 recipient countries and territories. Historically, these are: family planning, population policy formulation and population dynamics. The following emerging trends are foreseeable from country requests and information available to the Fund: 1) migration from rural to urban areas and increased growth in urbanization; 2) an increased proportion of aged which has already created a number of new demands for resources in both developing and developed countries; 3) a move toward enabling women to participate in economic and educational activities; and 4) a need for urgent concern over ecological issues which affect the delicate balance of resources and population.
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