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    090038

    Population in the 22nd century, from the United Nations long range projections.

    Grinblat JA

    In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 2, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 249-58.

    Information is provided on the population of the world to the year 2150 based on UN long-range projections. 9 major areas were consolidated into Group 1 (Northern America, Europe, Oceania, and USSR) and Group II (China, India, Other Asia, Latin America, and Africa). The long-range projections use as a base the population size for 2025 from 1 of the 4 variants of the 1990 Revision. Extensions were prepared to the 1990 Revision: the medium, medium/low, low, medium/high, high, and constant fertility extensions. According to the medium fertility extension, the population of the world but be multiplied by 4.6 between the years 1950 and 2150, growing from 2.5 billion to 11.5 billion, and eventually stabilize at 11.6 billion a half century later. By the year 2150 there will be 33% more old people, aged 65 and over, than children under age 15, and 50% as many very old people, aged 80 and over, as children. In 2150 the proportion of the population under age 15 will be 18%, having declined from 32% in 1990 and 21% in 2050. In 2150, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will be 24%; up from 6% in 1990 and 14% in 2050. The proportion of aged 80 and over will increase from 1% in 1990 to 3% in 2050 and 0% in 2150. The range in projected population size, for the year 2150, between the low and high fertility extensions is 4.3 billion persons to 28.0 billion persons assuming future fertility stabilized at 1.7 r 2.5 children/woman. Although the areas in Group 1 include about 20% of the population of the world in 1990, they will contribute less than 2% of the increase in the world population between 1990 and 2150, with more than 98% taking place in the areas of Group II (medium extension). The growth of the world population will take place essentially in the Group II. Africa will continue to be the fastest growing area. Its population is projected to be multi lied by 14 between 1950 and 2150. Its share of the world population will reach 27% in 2150 with a total of 3 billion and 90 million inhabitants.
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