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  1. 1
    010484

    Laos: progress will be slow.

    Ramdoyal R

    World Health. 1982 Jun; 28-9.

    The Lao People's Democratic Republic, a country faced with the problem of ensuring an outlet to the sea, suffers from all the undesirable economic and social consequences which being a landlocked country entails. Foreign products which Laos needs will be bought at a high cost in time and in scarce foreign exchange, but without foreign exchange the country is unable to obtain what it needs for economic and social development. The local manufacture of many items that are important for the country's growth remains limited because its dependence on supplies from abroad has always retarded technical development. At this time the national economy is advancing too slowly in relation to its capacity and to domestic demand. A factor seriously affecting the capacity for development has been the protracted war in which Laos has been embroiled by its geographical position. Health services, particularly in rural areas, reflect this situation as do all the other essential services. Defective communication networks have contributed to the weakness of the health sector. For many years the country has been receiving assistance from the World Health Organization (WHO) tailored to its needs, but the insecurity created by the war has precluded penetration into the most remote and poorest areas. Currently, the low rate of graduation from secondary schools limits the recruitment of people to be trained for the many vacant posts in the health services. WHO has the technical capacity for helping Laos to speed up its health development process, but it must first overcome the most important hurdle by introducing a more efficient system of management and creating among the staff the necessary confidence and decision making ability that are required. WHO is now helping Laos to deal with the priority problems that have been identified, i.e., the most common and most serious diseases. Malaria has been brought under control in 2 of 13 provinces. A drinking water supply project is being financed, and an immunization campaign against the common diseases of childhood has been initiated. Health education is another problem area. In rural areas WHO is primarily concerned with a project for developing primary health care so that improved health services can be made available in the most remote regions.
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  2. 2
    014194

    Long-range global population projections, as assessed in 1980.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.

    UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)
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  3. 3
    015065

    UNFPA allocations for contraceptives as of 31 December 1981 [tables]

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    [Unpublished] 1982 Apr. 63 p.

    A series of 3 lengthy tables provide data as of December 1981 on: 1) UNFPA allocations for contraceptives from 1969-84, 2) distribution of contraceptives by type from 1969-77 to 1981 by regions within agencies, and 3) distribution of contraceptives by type from 1969-84 by regions within agencies. Data in the 1st table are presented for the periods 1969-77 and subsequent single years for individual countries within the regions Subsaharan Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Pacific, Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East separately for condoms, pills, IUDs, injectables, spermicides, and others. As of 1984, it is estimated that the UNFPA will have provided 6,727,626,000 gross of condoms, the overwhelmining majority in Asia and the Pacific; 7,464,607,000 cycles of pills; 4,372,305,000 IUDs; and 2,696,937,000 doses of injectables, mostly in Asia and the Pacific. Cumulative country and regional totals are provided. The 2nd table provides information on distribution of contraceptives by project within regions for the period 1969-77 and subsequent single years through 1981 by the UNTCD, International Labour Organization (ILO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Health Organization (WHO), UNFPA, non-governmental organizations, and UNICEF for condoms, pills, IUDs, injectables, spermicides, and others. The 3rd table follows the format of the 2nd but the initial period covered is 1969-81, with single year data provided for 1982-84 and cumulative totals for 1969-84.
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  4. 4
    266148

    Community participation in improving environmental situation--a case study of Panchkhal. Part II.

    Upadhya DP

    Joicfp Review. 1983 Spring; (6):25-31.

    During 1980, the Integrated Family Planning and Parasite Control Project initiated the construction of 5 low-cost toilets in the rural Panchkhal Project area of Nepal for demonstration purposes on a subsidy basis. On recommendation from the members of the cooperation committee, these toilets were constructed within school premises located in different Village Panchayats. The overall strategy adopted during the parasite control program was to generate community participation in latrine construction. In the fiscal year 1981, 30 more subsidized sanitary toilets were built in the pilot area. With a view to determine how many families would be interested in constructing sanitary toilets on a subsidy basis towards the later part of 1981, the Project invited applications from the people of the pilot area. This was done to check people's attitudes towards the program. The response was encouraging. By the end of 1981, there were 300 applications; interest would have increased if the Project could aid all of the potential applicants. UNICEF has been involved in latrine construction by granting money and aiding in latrine design. The Panchkhal experience shows that community people are prepared to spend as much as 75% of the building costs for constructing sanitary toilets, when they are convinced that their health will improve as a result. Those who can afford the toilets will pay Nepal Rs25 (about US$1.90); those who cannot pay cash will provide labor to make the cement slabs. The very poor sector of the community, upon recommendation of members of the cooperation committees, may be given squatting slabs free of charge, if they are interested in constructing latrines. Constraints to the program include: difficult geography for constructing latrines; deforestation and dried-up wells; high illiteracy; lack of higher education facilities; and lack of appropriate technology. Recommendations call for distribution of materials at a nominal charge; casting the slabs over the household pits in difficult terrains; health education to motivate the community to adopt preventive measures against malnutrition and infection; and community organization for community participation. A field questionnairre and survey results obtained in 1982 are appended to the summary.
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  5. 5
    032862

    Onchocerciasis.

    Connor DH; Meyers WM; Gibson DW

    In: Simpson TW, Strickland GT, Mercer MA, ed. New developments in tropical medicine, II. Washington, D.C., National Council for International Health [NCIH], 1983. 111-18.

    Onchocerciasis, a disease caused by the parasite onchocerca volvulus, is now recognized by the World Health Organization as one of the world's major public health problems. Until recently, few western physicians had heard of the disease and many thought of it as rare and unimportant, characterized by benign "parasite tumors" of the skin. Transmission of the parasite by the vector blackfly is limited by climate and habits of the fly to defined endemic regions in tropical Africa, North Yemen, southern Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil, Columbia, and Ecuador. An estimated 40 million people are infected with the parasite and all but 1 million fo these live in tropical Africa. The economic impact of the disease has been devastating. It can force communities away from adjacent fertile land, which reduces agricultural production. To confirm diagnosis of the disease, either microfilariae or adult worms must be detected and/or recovered from the patient and identified by their specific morphologic features. During the 1970s, a long-range program to control the transmission of O. volvulus was developed and is being implemented by the WHO, supported by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and other agencies, known as the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP). The program's purpose is to reduce or arrest transmission by killing the vector blackfly. Breeding places along rivers and streams of savanna regions are being systematically sprayed. It is hoped that onchocerciasis will be reduced to a sufficiently low level so that it no longer is a public health problem or an obstacle to socioeconomic development. The adult worm lives an estimated 11-16 years and the gravid females continue to generate millions of microfilariae that live about 2 years. Without a long-term (e.g., 20 year) program, blackflies could reinvade the OCP area from other regions whici would resume the cycle from the reservoir of adults and microfilariae of O.volvulus still harbored by older people in the area.
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  6. 6
    039113

    Measles: summary of worldwide impact.

    Assaad F

    REVIEWS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES. 1983 May-Jun; 5(3):452-9.

    This summary of the worldwide impact of measles discusses epidemiology, reported incidence, clinical severity, community attitudes toward measles, and the impact of immunization programs on measles. Measles, 1 of the most ubiquitous and persistent of human viruses, occurs regularly everywhere in the world except in very remote and isolated areas. Strains of measles virus from different counties are indistinguishable, and serum antibodies from diverse population have identical specificity. Yet, the epidemic pattern, average age at infection, and mortality vary considerably from 1 area to another and provide a contrasting picture between the developing and the developed countries. In the populous areas of the world, measles causes epidemics every 2-5 years, but in the rapidly expanding urban conglomerations in the developing world, the continuous immigration from the rural population provides a constant influx of susceptible individuals and, in turn, a sustained occurrence of measles and unclear epidemic curves. In the economically advanced nations, measles epidemics are closely tied to the school year, building up to a peak in the late spring and ceasing abruptly after the summer recess begins. Maternal antibody usually confers protection against measles to infants during the 1st few months of life. The total number of cases of measles reported to WHO for 1980 is 2.9 million. Considering that in the developing world alone almost 100 million infants are born yearly, that less than 20% of them are immunized against measles, and that various studies indicate that almost all nonimmunized children get measles, less than 3 million cases of measles in 1980 is a gross underestimate. There was adecrease in the global number of reported cases of measles during the 1979-80 period due primarily to the reduction in the number of cases in the African continent and, to a lesser extent, in Europe. It is premature to conclude that such a reported decline is real and that it reflects the beginning of a longterm trend. The contrast between the developed and the developing worlds is most marked in relation to the severity and outcome of measles. Case fatality rates of more than 20% have been reported from West Africa. It has been estimated that 900,000 deaths occur yearly in the developing world because of measles, but data available to WHO indicate that the global case fatality rate in the developing world approaches 2% (in contrast to 2/10,000 cases in the US), and the actal mortality may be greater than 1.5 million deaths per year. The advent of WHO's Expanded Program on Immunization has brought about an awareness of the measles problem. Whenever and wherever measles vaccine has been used effectively on a large scale, a marked reduction in the number of cases has been recorded.
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  7. 7
    024950

    Country profile: Sierra Leone.

    International Planned Parenthood Federation. Africa Region; Planned Parenthood Federation of Sierra Leone

    [Nairobi, Kenya], International Planned Parenthood Federation, Africa Region, [1983]. 28 p.

    This profile of Sierra Leone discusses the following: geographical features; neighboring countries; ethnic and racial groups and religion; systems of government; population, namely, size, distribution, age/sex distribution, and women of reproductive age; socioeconomic conditions -- agriculture, industry, exports, imports, employment, education, health, and social welfare; family planning/population -- government policies, programs, Planned Parenthood Association of Sierra Leone (PPASL), nongovernment organizations and voluntary agencies, private organizations, sources of funding, and future trends of policies and programs; and the history, constitution, and structure and administration of the PPASL. According to the 1974 census, the population of Sierra Leone totaled 2,735,159. In 1980 it was estimated to have grown to 3,474,000. With an average annual growth rate of about 2.7%, it is expected to reach 6 million in 2000 and to have doubled in 27 years. Sierra Leone has a population density of 48 people/sq km. In 1974, 27.5% of the population lived in urban centers with 47% living in Freetown alone. The indigenous population includes 18 major ethnic groups; the Temne and Mende are the largest of these. The percentage of nonnationals increased from 2.7% in 1963 to 2.9% in 1974 and includes nationals mainly from the West African subregion with a sprinkling of British, Lebanese, Americans, Indians, and others. In 1974 the sex ratio was 98.8 males/100 females. In 1981 it was estimated that 41% of the total population was under age 15 and 5% over age 65, making the dependency burden very high. Agriculture is now the main focus of the government's development policy. Minerals are an important source of foreign exchange. It was estimated in 1980 that the total economically active population would reach 1.2 million, of whom the majority would be employed in agriculture. Women made up approximately 1/3 of the economically active population in 1970. The adult literacy rate recently has been estimated at 12% of the population. The government allows the PPASL to freely operate in the country, but it has not as yet declared a population policy. In 1973 the government did recognize the effects of rapid population growth on the nation's socioeconomic development. As a pioneering organization in family planning, the PPASL has made considerable effort in promoting the concept of responsible parenthood. Its motivational programs are geared towards informing and educating the public on the need for having only those children whom individuals and couples can adequately provide for in terms of health, nutrition, education, clothing, and all other basic necessities. Family planning services are provided to meet the demand thus created to enable families and individuals to exercise free and informed choice for spacing or limiting of children. Between 1971 and 1983 the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) provided financial assistance to Sierra Leone for population activities in the amount of US$2,659,382.
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  8. 8
    064720

    PEAS evaluation research. Population Education in the Agricultural Sector.

    DEEMAR

    Bangkok, Thailand, DEEMAR, 1983 Nov. [8], 27, [27] p. (UNFPA/FAO Project THA/83/PO4; J.9616)

    This evaluation research reports on the effectiveness of the Thai learning program for 500 civil servants who then incorporate the population education into their jobs as trainers. A sample of 100 trainers representing 6 provinces and regions were evaluated for content and process of integration information, for innovative approaches, for identifying systems which facilitate integration, and for identifying bottlenecks. Informal contact and monthly meetings or already formal groups have been the vehicles for transmission of information. Horizontal integration among staff and co-workers is high as well as among villagers in vertical integration. No follow-up is made after contact and little active participation occurs after POPED. In order to expand contact with the rural population, more training among middle management position needs to be addressed within the organization. Interorganization is overall 86%. The most talked about topics among villagers were population growth and natural resources (86%), age at marriage (81%), population density and land distribution (79%), and nutrition (70%). The most difficult topics were migration (21%), planning for a family (13%), economic and social consideration in marriage (14%), and sex of children (14%). Trainers perceived family planning in general as the most important topic and key to the success of the effort.
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  9. 9
    332284

    Progress on sanitation and drinking-water. 2010 update.

    WHO / UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation.

    Geneva, Switzerland, World Health Organization [WHO], 2010. [60] p.

    This report describes the status and trends with respect to the use of safe drinking-water and basic sanitation, and progress made towards the MDG drinking-water and sanitation target. As the world approaches 2015, it becomes increasingly important to identify who are being left behind and to focus on the challenges of addressing their needs. This report presents some striking disparities: the gap between progress in providing access to drinking-water versus sanitation; the divide between urban and rural populations in terms of the services provided; differences in the way different regions are performing, bearing in mind that they started from different baselines; and disparities between different socioeconomic strata in society. Each JMP report assesses the situation and trends anew and so this JMP report supersedes previous reports. The information presented in this report includes data from household surveys and censuses completed during the period 2007-2008. It also incorporates datasets from earlier surveys and censuses that have become available to JMP since the publication of the previous JMP report in 2008. In total, data from around 300 surveys and censuses covering the period 1985 - 2008, has been added to the JMP database. The updated estimates for 2008, 2000 and 1990 are given in the statistical table starting on page 38. This table for the first time shows the number of people who gained access to improved sanitation and drinking-water sources in the period 1990-2008. It is important to note that the data in this report do not yet reflect the efforts of the International Year of Sanitation 2008, which mobilized renewed support around the world to stop the practice of open defecation and to promote the use of latrines and toilets. (Excerpt)
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  10. 10
    776116

    The diffusion of a population-related innovation: the Planned Parenthood affiliate.

    BROWN LA

    Columbis, Ohio, Ohio State University, Department of Geography, (1977). (Studies in the Diffusion of Innovation Discussion Paper No. 37) 24 p

    The supply side of family planning spread in the U.S. is studied by examination of the diffusion of Planned Parenthood affiliates in this country. This diffusion is an example of nonprofit-motivated polynuclear diffusion with central propagator support. Such diffusion was key to increasing availability of and information regarding family planning services. The temporal pattern of the diffusion followed the process outlined: high growth from 1916-1939, very slow growth from 1940-1960, and high growth from 1961-1973. This process was initiated in response to birth rate changes and other social events, governmental initiative, and organizational changes within the central propagator. The diffusion spread from the largest cities to surrounding communities, and from north and east to west and south. The number of women in the 15-44 age group and the number of these women ever-married were 2 specific variables of importance in the spread; median family income and median school years completed for the 3rd organizational period were variables of importance in the organizing capacity of the diffusion.
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  11. 11
    260738

    Final report.

    Post-World Population Conference Consultation for the Economic Commission for Western Asia (1975: Doha)

    Report prepared for UNFPA/UN Interregional Consultative Group of Experts on the World Population Plan of Action, Geneva, 1975. 25 p

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  12. 12
    000352

    Seven billion by 2010.

    Fincancioglu N

    People. 1981; 8(2):26.

    The slowed down world population growth rate masks the magnitude of the net population increase. This warning comes in the new set of population projections prepared by the United Nations Population Division in 1980. These estimates, submitted to the 21st session of the Population Commission in January, indicate that the annual rate of growth of the world population had declined from 2% about 15 years ago to 1.7% and may decline to 1.5% by the end of the century. The world population has increased by 1.9 billion in the last 3 decades; 2.6 billion people are expected to be added in the coming 3 decades, bring the world population to 7 billion by 2010. About nine-tenths of the annual increase is having to be absorbed in the developing countries, despite a substantial decline in the birth rate of 41/1000 in 1960-65 to 32/1000 at present. Most of the decline has occurred in China and in several Asian and Latin American countries. Little or no decline is yet apparent in South Asia and Africa. By 1978 only 7 out of 24 Western developed countries had fertility rates above the replacement level. The UN Population Division's analyses of government policies in 165 countries show that 84 governments consider fertility levels in their countries to be satisfactory, 22 too low and 59 too high. 17 governments have policies to increase fertility and 39 to reduce it.
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  13. 13
    015189

    Report of the evaluation of UNFPA assistance to the ECWA regional population programme.

    Sirageldin I; Jones EF; Kannisto V; Mehani M; Seklani M; Bravo-Casas GA

    [Unpublished] 1981. 126 p.

    This evaluation of UNFPA assistance to the Economic Commission for Western Asia (ECWA) Regional Population Program consists of 8 chapters which describe the terms of reference and methodology of the evaluation; provide general information on the ECWA region and its population situation and activities; describe the institutional context of the regional population program; assess the objectives and inputs of the program; discuss substantive areas including data collection, demographic analysis, population and development, population policies, and dissemination of work; assess operational activities including conferences and workshops, technical assistance, special studies, and publications and clearinghouse; review managerial aspects including staffing, coordination mechanisms, monitoring, and administrative matters; and comment on the program proposed for 1980-83 and the future of the program. The evaluation mission concluded that the program of work, strategy, specification, phasing, and budgeting of the program components have been well designed and executed and are in accord with the mandate given to ECWA, the available resources, and the perceptions of the countries of the region. The major strengths of the program were considered to be the ability to organize high quality meetings in the region, backstopping and promotional activities in data collection, and publication. Activities related to demographic analysis are still in a process of development and are expected to receive greater emphasis. The areas of population and development and population policy are still weak. The major difficulties encountered were mostly of an administrative and procedural nature, such as recruitment problems and poor monitoring. The mission recommended that ECWA and UNFPA support continue and that gradual expansion of the program be undertaken.
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  14. 14
    198649

    International Conference on Population, 1984. Population distribution, migration and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development, Hammamet (Tunisia), 21-25 March 1983

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, N.Y, United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, 1984. vi, 505 p. (no. ST/ESA/SER.A/89)

    These are the proceedings of one of the four expert groups convened in preparation for the International Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in August 1984. The aim of the expert groups was to examine critical, high-priority population issues and to make recommendations for revisions to the World Population Plan of Action. The present publication concerns the relationships among population distribution, migration, and development. It contains a report of the discussions and a list of recommendations concerning population distribution and internal migration, international migration, and the promotion of knowledge and policies. The report also includes a selection of background papers. These papers include a review of population distribution, migration, and development in relation to the World Population Plan of Action; a review of technical cooperation in this area; and a description of United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) assistance in the field of migration and population distribution.
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  15. 15
    027665

    [National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development] Reunion Nacional sobre Poblacion, Recursos, Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO], 1984. 120 p.

    Opening remarks, presentations, comments, and conclusions are presented from the Mexican National Conference on Population, Resources, Environment, and Development, the last of a series of conferences held in preparation for the 1984 World Population Conference. The 3 papers, each with a commentary, concerned questions regarding the balance between population, resources, the environment, and development to be addressed by the World Population Conference; population, resources, and environment; and population and development. A list of comments of participants and the closing remarks are also included. Several concluding statements summarized the main points of the debate: 1) Relationships between demographic variables and economic and social processes are highly complex and the World Population Conference should take such complexities into account. 2) Reproductive and migratory behavior of the population is just 1 element influencing and being influenced by social and economic development. The decreasing rate of population growth alone cannot lead to development. 3) The quest for a better balance between resource utilization and environmental conservation, with the resulting improvement in living standards, requires immediate and realistic measures on the part of the State and the participation of the people not merely as objects but also as active subjects through their community organizations. 4) The regional dimension must be included in the analysis of disequilibrium between population and development, at both national and international levels, in order to provide a better comprehension of phenomena such as migration, urbanization, production and distribution of food, environmental deterioration, ant the qualitative development of the population. 5) Better conceptual, analytical, informative, and planning instruments must be developed regarding the themes of population and development. In particular, instruments for the medium- and longterm should be developed, since the time frame of population processes exceeds the usual programming limits. 6) Questions suitable for a forum such as the World Population Conference must be distinguished from those relating to national population policy. Nevertheless, common principles exist, such as full respect for human rights, national sovereignty, and the fundamental objectives of population policy, which should be to contribute to elevating the level and quality of life of human beings.
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  16. 16
    026752

    Global distribution of schistosomiasis: CEGET/WHO Atlas. Distribution Mondiale de la schistosomiase: Atlas CEGET/OMS.

    Doumenge JP; Mott KE

    World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales. 1984; 37(2):186-99.

    Schistosomiasis, the most prevalent of the water-borne diseases, is endemic in 74 tropical developing countries and infects over 200 million persons in rural and agricultural areas. However, recent advances in diagnostic techniques, new antischistosomal drugs, and accumulated understanding of the epidemiology of the infection offer improved prospects for schistosomiasis control. Morever, adaptation of quantotative parasitologic techniques for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis will make more data available for use in national control programs. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been instrumental in providing reliable reference material on the geographic distribution of schistosomiasis and, on the basis of a survey of Member States, collaborated with Centre d'etudes de geographic tropicale (CEGET), in the development of an Atlas. This volume consists of topographic relief maps that identify the presence of absence of schistosomiasis by village or locality. There are wide variations in the prevalence, intensity of infection, ans species of parasite according to ecologic differences, snail intermediate hosts, and occupational and cultural norms. The Atlas also highlights the relationship of water resource development projects to schistosomiasis endemicity. Attention to such data may lead to the selection of project areas known not to be endemic. More sophisticated geographic analyses based on land form, soil and geologic characteristics, ground water level, and agricultural land use have been used predictively in Japan. The Atlas is expected to serve as a reference point to evaluate the global progress in schistosomiasis control.
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  17. 17
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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  18. 18
    030796

    Burma: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, UNFPA, 1985 Mar. viii, 68 p. (Report No. 70)

    The UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) is in the process of an extensive programming exercise intended to respond to the needs for population assistance in a priority group of developing countries. This report presents the findings of the Mission that visited Burma from May 9-25, 1984. The report includes dat a highlights; a summary and recommendations for population assistance; the national setting; population policies and population and development planning; data collection, analysis, and demographic training and research;maternal and child health, including child spacing; population education in the in-school and out-of school sectors; women, population, and development; and external assistance -- multilateral assistance, bilateral assistance, and assistance from nongovernmental organizations. In Burma overpopulation is not a concern. Population activities are directed, rather, toward the improvement of health standards. The main thrust of government efforts is to reduce infant mortality and morbidity, promote child spacing, improve medical services in rural areas, and generally raise standards of public health. In drafting its recommendations, whether referring to current programs and activities or to new areas of concern, the Mission was guided by the government's policies and objectives in the field of population. Recommendations include: senior planning officials should visit population and development planning offices in other countries to observe program organization and implementation; continued support should be given to ensure the successful completion of the tabulation and analysis of the 1983 Population Census; the People's Health Plan II (1982-86) should be strengthened through the training of health personnel at all levels, in in-school, in-service, and out-of-country programs; and the need exists to establish a program of orientation to train administrators, trainers/educators, and key field staff of the Department of Health and the Department of Cooperatives in various aspects of population communication work.
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  19. 19
    050982

    Report on international financial resources for maternal/child health and family planning.

    Maine D; Wray JD; Wallace M; Belsey MA; Foo-Gregory CL

    [Unpublished] 1985. 47 p. (MCH/85.4)

    Despite improvements during the last decade in the health of women and children in developing countries, a great deal remains to be done. Barriers to continued progress take a number of forms, including financial and institutional. A study of existing data on international funding for maternal/child health and family planning (MCH/FP) shows the following: in 1983 the total official development assistance funding from developed countries totalled US$39.6 billion; 72% of these funds were dispersed through bilateral agencies, the rest through multilateral agencies (in 1983); nearly 6% of bilateral funds were allocated to the health sector (which includes population); analysis of 77 UNDP country reports indicates that about 1/10th of development funding is devoted to health and population; this proportion varies considerably by geographical region, being highest in Latin America and lowest in Africa; funding for MCH/FP programs constitutes about 1/15th of health and population funds reported by the UNDP; again, this proportion is lower in Africa than in Asia or Latin America, although this may be changing; in terms of women and children to be served, it appears that, on average, international funding for MCH/FP programs provides less than US$1 each; a survey of donor agencies indicates that most donors are willing to increase their funding of MCH/FP programs; when the donors were asked to name factors that would induce them to increase MCH/FP funds, the 2 most common answers were: more requests for funding, and , better evidence of unmet needs. Institutional barriers to optimal utilization of MCH/FP resources are discussed, including those often encountered in nongovernmental, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as in host countries and industry. Finally, a number of models for effective utilization of development funds are drawn from experience and developed. They include models of global, national, institutional and health services efforts. (author's)
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  20. 20
    031976

    Ghana: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 Jul. vii, 59 p. (Report No. 68)

    This report of a Mission visit to Ghana from May 4-25, 1981 contains data highlights; a summary of findings; Mission recommendations regarding population and development policies, population data collection and analysis, maternal and child health and family planning, population education and communication programs, and women and development; and information on the following: the national setting; population features and trends (population size, growth rate, and distribution and population dynamics); population policy, planning, and policy-related research; basic data collection and anaylsis; maternal and child health and family planning (general health status, structure and organization of health services, maternal and child health and family planning activities, and family planning services in the private sector); population education and communication programs; women, youth, and development; and external assistance in population. Ghana gained independence in 1957. The country showed early promise of rapid development. Although well-endowed with natural and human resources, Ghana now suffers from food scarcity, inadequate infrastructure and services, inflation, inequities in income distribution, unemployment, and underemployment. Per capita gross national product (GNP) was $400 in 1981; between 1960-81 the average annual growth of GNP was -1.1%. A high rate of natural increase of the population has compounded development problems by intensifying demands for food, consumer goods, and social services while simultaneously increasing the constraints on productivity. The population, estimated at 13 million in mid-1984, is growing at a rate of 3.25% per annum. Immigration and emigration have contributed to changes in the size and composition of the population. Post-independence development policies favored the urban areas, encouraging a steady rural-to-urban shift in the population. At the same time, worsening socioeconomic conditions spurred the emigration of professional, managerial, and technical personnel and skilled workers. Ghana was the 1st sub-Saharan African nation to establish an official population policy. Since the formulation of the policy in 1969, successive governments have remained committed to its emphasis on fertility reduction while increasing attention to the problems of mortality and morbidity and rural/urban migration. Recognizing the need to intensify the commitment to population policies, the Mission recommends support for a program to further the awareness of policy makers of the relationship between population trends and their areas of responsibility. The Mission recommends the creation of a special permanent population committee and the strengthening of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning's Manpower division. The Mission also makes the following recommendations: the provision of training, technical assistance, and data processing facilities to ensure the timely provision of demographic data for socioeconomic planning; data collected in the pilot program of vital registration be evaluated before the system is expanded; the complete integration of maternal and child health and family planning and general health services within the primary health care system; and improvement in women's access to resources such as education, training, and agricultural inputs.
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  21. 21
    031753

    [World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.

    Vallin J

    Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
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  22. 22
    031969

    China: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 May. xii, 156 p. (Report No. 67)

    A Needs Assessment and Program Development Mission visited the People's Republic of China from March 7 to April 16, 1983 to: review and analyze the country's population situation within the context of national population goals as well as population related development objectives, strategies, and programs; make recommendations on the future orientation and scope of national objectives and programs for strengthening or establishing new objectives, strategies, and programs; and make recommendations on program areas in need of external assistance within the framework of the recommended national population program and for geographical areas. This report summarizes the needs and recommendations in regard to: population policies and policy-related research; demographic research and training; basic population data collection and analysis; maternal and child health and family planning services; management training support for family planning services; logistics of contraceptive supply; management information system; family planning communication and education; family planning program research and evaluation; contraceptive production; research in human reproduction and contraceptives; population education and dissemination of population information; and special groups and multisectoral activities. The report also presents information on the national setting (geographical and cultural features, government and administration, the economy, and the evolution of socioeconomic development planning) and demographic features (population size, characteristics, and distribution, nationwide and demographic characteristics in geographical core areas). Based on its assessment of needs, the Mission identified mjaor priorities for assistance in the population field. Because of China's size and vast needs, external assistance for population programs would be diluted if provided to all provincial and lower administrative levels. Thus, the Mission suggests that a substantial portion of available resources be concentrated in 3 provinces as core areas: Sichuan, the most populous province (100,220,000 people by the end of 1982); Guandong, the province with the highest birthrate (25/1000); and Jiangsu, the most densely populated province (608 persons/square kilometer. In all the government has identified 11 provinces needing special attention in the next few years: Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin, Shaanxi and Shandong, in addition to Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan.
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  23. 23
    268323

    The miracle of a mountain moving out to the sea: the creation of new human space.

    Kuroda T

    Joicfp Review. 1985 Oct; 10:39-40.

    Port Island is an artificial island made up of sand and soil from Mount Takakura in the Rokko mountain range of Japan. The materials were carried to the coast of Suma a distance of 7.1 kilometers by a specially devised overhead conveyor belt from Kobe City. Work on the island still continues today. On the average, 7000 dump trucks a day have been mobilized at the conveyor belt facilities. The materials are transported from the coast by pusher-barges that have specially designed bottoms that open and dump the building materials on the sea bed. The island is linked to Kobe City by a huge bridge. It is serviced by a fully automatic monorail. A new city was also created at the site where the sand and soil were removed. A joint study with the Kobe City authority and local experts under the support and cooperation of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was initiated. The administrative structure and financing required of a project of this magnitude need to be examined. The organizational structure and management style of local governments undertaking the project were non-bureaucratic, efficient and flexible. Kobe City authorities secured the necessary funds by issuing the German mark bond. A research on Kobe City and the redistribution of population is planned. More living space and better living conditions resulted from the project.
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  24. 24
    268442

    A summary of the report on the evaluation of MEX/79/P04 "Integration of population policy with development plans and programmes".

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 Jul. 19, [9] p.

    The objective of this UNFPA project was to build the institutional and methodological base for integration of population policy into and its harmonization with national, sectoral and state policies or socioeconomic development in Mexico. More specifically, the project was to achieve integration of population policy with 6 sectoral plans, 24 state plans and the Master Development Plan within 3 years. Although the Mission considers it an achievement that the project signed agreements with all 31 states and the Federal District, no formal contacts had been made with the 6 sectors. Mexico's National Population Council (CONAPO) coordinated the project. The Mission recommended that support to integration activities be continued on the basis of the experience that has been acquired. Therefore it is necessary 1) to strengthen the activities at the state level; 2) to support the development of methodologies considering the impact of socioeconomic plans and programs on demographic variables and to provide a comprehensive program of international technical experience; 3) to recognize that responses to ad hoc support activities are an important integration instrument for both sectors and states; and 4) to exact greater clarity concerning the role of the project in the National Population Program. A lack of aedquately trained personnel proved to be a continual obstacle to implementation. The Mission recommends that at an early stage in the development of such projects a thorough assessment of the human resource requirements and existing capacity for integration of demographic and socioeconomic variables be made and that, based on this assessment, a specific training strategy be developed and incorporated in the project's design. In addition to training, the project also included research support activities; the outputs, however, were descriptive rather than analytical, which can be traced to both the design and execution of the work plan for research activities. The UNFPA's funding constraints and its management of reduced funds further complicated the project's execution, which suffered from high personnel turnover and lack of coordination of project activities.
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  25. 25
    268443

    Report on the evaluation of SEN/77/P04: population/socio-spatial/regional planning (population/amenagement du territoire).

    Fabri MY; Pool DI; Simonen M

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. xiii, 34, [7] p.

    The Senegal population/socio-spatial/regional planning project illustrates a truly integrated approach to population and development planning. The evaluation Mission concluded overall that the project's achievements are positive. The project's main accomplishments have been the establishment of a sophisticated population data bank, the preparation of national and regional population projections, an analysis of migration movements, and the production of related maps and tables using primarily 2ndary data sources. The technical quality and detail of the work undertaken, as well as its potential usefulness, were high. However, the Mission also found that various constraints specific to this project have considerably limited its achievements. These include inadequately formulated project objectives and planned activities, poorly defined conceptual framework, low absorptive capacity of the implementing agency, and severe United Nations Fund for Population Activities budget reductions. The value of the work was found to be lessened because the data assembled have not yet been systematically integrated into other relevant data banks, properly disseminated or utilized. The Mission recommended measures which will help conserve the valuable data bank and other results of the project and will assist in the transfer to nationals of the knowledge and skills to update and utilize the data bank. Limited outside assistance--financial and technical--is needed for some of the recommended measures.
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