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Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1982; 11(4):22-4.2 population targets for the Asian and Pacific regions were established in 1981-82: 1) by the Asian Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development at Beijing, China to attain 1% population growth rate for the Asian region by the year 2000, and 2) by the 3rd Asian and Pacific Population Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka, to attain replacement level of fertility by the year 2000. In an attempt to ascertain whether these targets can be achieved and/or related, the Population Division of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) prepared population projections in which the 2 targets are achieved. These projections were prepared by aggregating the total population of member countries. When net reproduction rate (NRR) equals 1 (replacement level fertility) it will lead to a stable population with a growth rate of zero. In the short-term a population with replacement level fertility will continue to increase if it has a young age structure due to previous higher levels of fertility. Some projections for the period 1980-2005 are: 1) population growth rate will decrease from 1.78% to 1.05%, 2) total fertility rate will decrease from 3.63-2.11, 3) male life expectancy will increase from 59.8-67.3, and 4) infant mortality rate will decrease from 67.3-34.5. For the ESCAP region, a target of NRR of 1 would be easier to achieve than a growth rate of 1%. The UN projects the total population of the region to be 3,382,000,000 in the year 2000. If the NRR can be lowered to 1 by then, however, the total population would be 3,342,000,000 and if the growth rate can be reduced to 1% by the end of the century the resulting population would be 3,300,000,000. Major demographic benefits will be attained in terms of the age structure of the population if a 1% growth rate is achieved; the proportion under age 15 was 37.1% in 1980 but will be 27.2% in 2000 with a dependency ratio of 48.8 compared to 70.8 for 1980.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)
Kwaluseni, Swaziland, University College of Swaziland Department of Law, Law and Population Project, 1982. 75 p.This report describes the findings of a 2-year research project conducted principally by the Law Department of the University College of Swaziland with input from the Geography Department and the Ministry of Health, funded by UNFPA. The study questions the extent to which the legal system can be used as an instrument of population policy and development. In this context population policy and development can be characterized as processes which increase approximation to the goal of an optimum population. The different essays dealing with the various aspects of law and population underline the multidimensional and complex character of the population problem. The monograph is divided into 3 parts. Part 1 describes the population including spatial distribution, age-sex distribution and the implications of population growth for development in the area. Part 2 describes the institutions governing family growth and planning including traditional methods of birth control and attitudes towards contraception. The laws of marriage, illegitimacy, and adoption are discussed including the Common Law and Statutory Position, and the Income Tax Law is described. Part 3 contains discussions on the uses of the resources of the country from a legal point of view. This includes theory of property law, the morphogenesis of property regimes and 4 alternatives suggested for the future of property law in Swaziland. Population and development is an interactive process because what can be achieved through access to land affects what can be achieved in social investment, education, and health. This study attempts to deal with the larger social setting, the socioeconomic matrix, than with technical legal provisions in order to avoid the narrow analyses of the past.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
In: Current problems in obstetrics and gynecology, Vol. 5, No. 6, edited by John M. Leventhal. Chicago, Illinois, Year Book Medical Publishers, 1982. 4-41.This article addresses the medical aspects of population growth, with specific focus on a demographic overview, population policies, family planning programs, and population issues in the US. The dimensions of the population problem and their implications for social and economic development are reviewed. The world's response to these issues is discussed, followed by an assessment of what has been accomplished, particularly as it relates to the record of national family planning programs in developing countries. The impact of population growth on such issues as education, available farm land, deforestation, and urban growth are discussed. Urban populations are growing at an unprecedented rate, posing urgent problems for action. From a public health perspective, data are reviewed which demonstrate that having children at short intervals (2 years) or at unfavorable maternal ages (18 or 35) and/or parity (4) has a negative impact on maternal, infant and childhood morbidity and mortality, particularly in developing countries. Increasing the age of marriage, delaying the 1st birth, changing and improving the status of women, increasing educational levels and improving living conditions in general also are important in reducing population growth. Probably the most important, but most controversial intervention, has been the development of national family planning programs aimed at increasing the public's access to modern contraceptive and sterilization methods. India was the 1st country to declare a formal population policy (in the 1950s) with the goal of reducing population growth. Currently, close to 35 countries have formal policies. The planned parenthood movement, with central support from the London office of the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), has played a most important role in making family planning services available. 2 population issues in the US today are reviewed briefly in the final section: teenage pregnancy and the changing age structure.
Population 70. Family Planning and Social Change. (Proceedings of the Second Conference of the Western Pacific Region of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, Tokyo, 13-16 October 1970.)
Tokyo, International Planned Parenthood Federation, Western Pacific Region, April 1971. 191 pThis booklet includes all the papers presented at the Second Conference of the Western Pacific Region of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, in Tokyo in 1970. The papers are on different aspects of social change in the Asian countries in the 1970s population, food resources, manpower resources, economic development, changing family patterns, urbanization, and the status of women.
Teheran, Iran, Population and Manpower Bureau, Planning Division, November 1973. 75 p. (Unpublished)The structure and characteristics of Iran's current population are analyzed, and an attempt is made to review and analyze Iran's population evolution and determine its future trends in the light of the research studies conducted by various organizations. Until the second half of the nineteenth century there was no population census in Iran. The period after 1946 was marked by an increase in the annual population growth rate. The size and structure of the population bears a direct relationship to changes in the economic and social conditions. The population strategy of Iran is designed so as to slow down the rate of population growth by reducing the birthrate. This study demonstrated that it cannot be expected that the population growth rate will decrease to 2% annually in the next 20 years. The death rate will decrease to .8% and the birthrate will decrease to 3-3.4%. The article provides tables on the size of population, living conditions, population changes, and urbanization trends based on the projections of this study.
Bucharest, U.N., (E/Conf.60/3). 1974; 97.The Report of the Secretary General on Recent Population Trends and Future Prospects includes a discussion of the growth of population. Noted is the fact that the world's population of 2500 million in 1950 increased to 3900 million by early 1974. It is expected that this figure will increase to 4000 million during 1975. The annual percentage rate of increase is expected to slow down between now and the year 2000, but world population will still be increasing in the 1900s about as rapidly as it did during the 1950s. Most of the population increase has occurred in the developing countries where incomes are lowest and educational and employment opportunities for the young are limited. The remaining 11 subject areas of the report concentrate on births, deaths a nd natural increase; prospects of stabilizing population; paths of transition from high to low fertility; factors of declining fertility in the processes of development and modernization; effects of governmental policy and action programs on fertility trends; modernization of mortality; international migration; population strucutre, labor force and dependency; the density of population; agricultural population and land; and urbanization and metropolitan concentration. 5 figures are included which present information on the population in major areas of the world; the impact of sex and age structure, nuptiality and marital fertility on crude birthrates; trends in expectation of life at birth in selected countries; sex-age structure of the population in less and more developed regions; and urban, rural and agricultural population in the more and less developed regions of the world. 2 annexes provide a glossary of demographic terms used in this document and 20 tables relating to the contents of the report.
(London, IPPF), May 1975. 15 p.Population data was gathered by the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) to use for budgetary purposes. Statistical population tables are presented for 222 countries grouped into 8 large regions. The tables show: total population, growth rates and birthrates for the countries and regions for each year since 1970. Based on these figures, projections for 1976 are made. The number of women in the 15-44 year age group for each country and region is given. A standard formula yields the number of women at risk, correcting for sterile couples, sexually inactive women, and those not having 3 children yet. IPPF figures are compared with the latest United Nations projections.
In: Joyce, J.A., comp. World population, basic documents: volume 2, modern times. Dobbs Ferry, New York, Oceana, 1976. p. 439-481An overview of the world population crisis is presented with an emphasis on historical perspective, the dichotomy between developing and developed countries, and the purposes and accomplishments of the U.N. system of organizations relevant to the field of population. Discussions of the following areas are included: 1) past and prospective future population trends; 2) the implications of high fertility and rapid population growth on health, food, employment, education, and migration; 3) the growth of national population policies and some specific examples of policies adopted at the international level; and 4) the development and financing of the various population programs in the U.N. system.
[Panorama of Costa Rica, 1973. Demographic and social aspects] Panorama de Costa Rica, 1973. Aspectos demograficos y sociales.
Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Poblacion (CESPO), Departamento de Investigacion, Universidad de Costa Rica, 1974. 37 pA broad synthesis of some socioeconomic and demographic aspects of the population of Costa Rica at the end of 1973 is presented. It covers population size, number of households, marital status of women of reproductive age, age at marriage, population growth, age structure and distribution, ethnic and religious elements, educational level, economic activity, future tendencies, population growth and economic development, historical aspects of the population problem, and the national family planning program. Costa Rica had an annual growth rate of 3.8% in the period 1950-1960; by 1972 the rate was 2.5%. The drop did not seem to be due to the family planning program, though the program's existence may have accelerated the process. Because of the high growth rates, the population is young and dependency rates are high. However, the drop in the birthrate will significantly alter the population structure by the year 2000 such that only 34.1% will be under 15 and 4.4% will be over 65. That fact together with the economic prospects of the country should result in a significantly higher standard of living for the populous in the next decade. The role of the family planning program will become increasingly important as modernization succeeds in lowering mortality rates and increasing longevity.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12pCompiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
New York, UN, 1979. 279 p. (Population studies No. 62)This report was prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat on the basis of inputs by the Division, the International Labour Organisation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the World Health Organization. Tables are presented for sex compositions of populations; demographic variables; percentage rates of change of unstandardized maternal mortality rates and ratios; population enumerated in the United States and born in Latin America; urban and rural population, annual rates of growth, and percentage of urban in total population, the world, the more developed and the less developed regions, 1950-75; crude death rates, by rural and urban residence, selected more developed countries; childhood mortality rates, age 1-4 years; and many others. The world population amounted to nearly 4 billion in 1975, a 60% increase over the 1950 population of 2.5 billion. The global increase is about 2%. The average death rate in developing areas has dropped from 25/1000 in 1950 to about 15/1000, a 40% decline. Estimates of birth rates in developing countries are 40-45 for 1950 and 35-40/1000 for 1975. Most of the shifts in vital trends in the less developed regions are still at an early stage or of limited geographical scope.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, World Fertility Survey, and International Institute for Population Studies. Regional Workshop on Techniques of Analysis of World Fertility Survey data: report and selected papers. New York, UN, 1979. 15-36. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 44)The World Fertility Survey provides data from national maternity history inquiries. Detecting trends and differentials is only as accurate as the data collected. Where evidence suggests error, the analysis may be restricted to obtaining only a measure of fertility level. The basic data is the date and order of birth of each live born child for a sample of women in the reproductive period, according to the current age of the women and their duration of marriage. The cohort marker is usually separated into 7 5-year classes determined by age at interview; sample of women is representative of the female population of childbearing age. Total births for each cohort are allocated to different periods preceding the survey date. Reading down the columns gives the births to different cohorts over different ranges in the same time interval preceding the survey. To detect omissions, check the overall sex ratio and the sex ratios by periods; examine the trends of infant mortality by cohorts and periods; an excess of male mortality over female indicates poor reporting of dead female children and/or of sex (a common omission). From data on age of mother and number of surviving children at the survey and estimates of mortality level, the numbers of births at preceding periods may be calculated.
In: Brass W, Coale AJ, Demeny P, Heisel DF, Lorimer F, Romaniuk A, Van de Walle E. The demography of tropical Africa. Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1968. 515-27.There is no information on fertility or mortality representative of numbers of Nigerian people. Vital statistics are registered in Lagos but are not representative of the country. The first census was taken in 1952-53 but contained no information of fertility and mortality. The 1962 census was invalidated. The political confusion surrounding the 1963 census will probably invalidate it. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. The 1963 census of 56 million is an overestimate, but is much larger than the other countries. According to UN estimates based on the 1953 census, the gross reproduction rate was 3.7 and the crude birth rate between 53 and 57. Age data for boys is recorded systematically as lower than those of girls of the same real age until age 15. Slower physical development and the desire to avoid taxation may account for the discrepancies. Certain tribes tend to conceal their number of children, particularly the first born. Among Moslems it is impossible to check the number of married women who are in "purdah." Migration from and to areas of Nigeria probably affected the young adult male and was not reported. The area of highest fertility was estimated to be in Western Nigeria, particularly in the Yoruba region. The eastern region includes one low-fertility area, Cameroons Province, with a gross reproduction rate under 3.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Office of International Health, Division of Planning and Evaluation, 1976. 92 p. (Syncrisis: the dynamics of health, XVII)This article uses available statistics to analyze health conditions in Bangladesh and their impact on the country's socioeconomic development. Background information on the country is first given, after which population characteristics, health status, nutrition, national health policy and adminstration, health services and programs, population programs, environmental sanitation, health sector resources, financing of health care and donor assistance are examined. Bangladesh's 3% annual population increase is expected to increase already great population pressure and to have a negative impact on the health status of the population. Although reliable health statistics are lacking, infant mortality is estimated at 140 per 1000, 40% of all deaths occur in the 0-4 age group, and maternal mortality is high. Infectious diseases exacerbated by malnutrition are the main causes of death. 4 key factors are responsible for the general malnutrition: 1) rapidly growing population, 2) low per capita income, 3) high incidence of diarrheal diseases, and 4) dietary practices that restrict nutrient intake. Most of the population has access only to traditional health services, and medical education is hospital oriental and curative, with minimal emphasis on public health. The level of environmental sanitation is extremely low.
Washington, D.C., U.S. Office of International Health, Division of Planning and Evaluation, 1976. 144 p. (Syncrisis: the dynamics of health, XIX)This report uses available statistics to examine health conditions in Senegal and their interaction with socioeconomic development. Background data are presented, after which population, health status, nutrition, environmental health, health infrastructure, facilities, services and manpower, national health policy and planning, international organizations, and the Sahel are discussed. Diseases such as malaria, measles, tuberculosis, trachoma and venereal diseases are endemic in Senegal, and high levels of infant and childhood mortality exist throughout the country but especially in rural areas. Diarrhea, respiratory infections, and neonatal tetanus contribute to this mortality and are evidence of the poor health environment, and lack of basic services including nutrition assistance, health education, and potable water. Nutrition in Senegal appears to be good in general, but seasonal and local variations sometimes produce malnutrition. Lowered fertility rates would reduce infant and maternal mortality and morbidity and might slow the present decline in per capita food intake. At present the government of Senegal has no population policy and almost no provisions for family planning services. Health services are inadequate and inefficient, with shortages of all levels of health manpower, poor planning, and overemphasis on curative services.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.
New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
The degree of success achieved in the population projections for Latin America made since 1950: sources of error: data and studies needed in order to improve the basis for calculating projections.
In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 27-33. (E/CONF.41/4)High, medium, and low population size and age-sex structure projections, prepared by the United Nations in 1954-1955 for 15 Latin American countries, were compared to recent census data in an effort to evaluate the success of the projections, to identify sources of error, and to suggest ways to improve projections in the future. For the countries as a whole, the high projections underestimated the actual population by 3.35%, the medium projections underestimated the population by 4.5%, and the low projections underestimated the population by 7%. Deviation for individual projections ranged from a 14.03% overestimation of the Peruvian population to a 15.05% underestimation of the Costa Rican population. In general, projections were considered unsuccessful except for those made for Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Argentina. The projections for each country were examined and the sources of error were identified. In some cases, even though the projections were not grossly deviant from the actual population, the results were due to a series of errors which happened to cancel each other out. Errors were due either to the inappropriate use of methodological procedures or to the failure to adequately anticipate fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Errors can be minimized in the future by improving the population base data on which the projections are made. Although progress was made in improving census-taking in Latin America during the 1950s, censuses taken since 1960 have once again declined in quality. Furthermore, many countries still lack adequate vital records systems. Until the quality of the vital records and census systems is improved, sample surveys should be used to develop population base data for making projections. There is also a need to improve data gathering in reference to international migration patterns and trends.
New York, Foreign Policy Association, 1980 Oct. 80 p. (Headline Series 251)World population will be facing serious problems in the 1980s and 1990s as a result of 2 population trends which are presently dominating the demographic scene. The number of young people aged 15-30 in developing countries is increasing rapidly and they will be soon asserting themselves politically, economically, and socially. The 2nd trend which exists is the disparity between high population growth in the impoverished developing countries and the lower rates in the affluent industrial countries. This century's population growth has occurred primarily in the developing world and is the result of lower death rates rather than higher birthrates. The situation is attributable to demographic transition; however, the major demographic questions of how quickly birthrates will fall and how wide the gap will be before birthrates follow the classic transition remain unanswered. 3 approaches to help answer these and other demographic questions are: 1) demographic approach; 2) historical approach; and 3) observation of recent events. These various approaches are given attention in this monograph. The consequences of too rapid population growth can be seen in the low food supplies which exist leaving many in developing countries undernourished, in a decline in the quality of life, in the reduction of the potential capacity to produce what is necessary (diminished land resources, pollution of water and air), in the increases in the price of energy and natural resources, in the difficulties in acquiring employment opportunities, and in burgeoning urban growth (which puts a serious strain on housing, transportation, etc.). Family planning was adopted in various countries in the world despite government policies to counter this. While there is recognition of the need for measures to be taken to reduce fertility, the question of how to accomplish this still remains. A brief overview of developing country adoption of family policies is included. What become clear is that family planning programs do make a difference in birthrate reduction and in population growth control. An effective, extensive family planning/population program exists in the People's Republic of China; Indonesia, Colombia, Tunisia, and Mauritius are other countries with successful programs. Various socioeconomic factors influence fertility and they include: literacy and education, urbanization, improvement in the status of women, health, family or community structure, development (modernization), and even the lack of development. Population and development will be greatly affected in the future by the quality and depth of leadership. Government leadership and the private sector, donor agencies, as well as international leadership, especially that of the UNFPA, will be critical. Also included here are discussion questions and reading references for those who are interested.
People. 1981; 8(2):24.Partial results from the first nationwide census in modern Vietnam's history show that the country is now supporting over 54 million people, growing at about 2.3% per year. The census was held in October, 1979, with UNFPA assistance and involved 1.4 million census takers. There is a severe imbalance between males and females in the 25-45 age group, reflecting the casualties of the war. The sex ratio is 94.2 males for every 100 females. Women account for nearly 45% of the workforce and 60% of all rural workers. Over 80% of the population live in the countryside. During the last 20 years, the north has reduced its growth rate by nearly 30% with the rigorous implementation of birth control programs, especially in the most densely populated area of the Bac Bo Delta. Nearly 10% of the population (5 million) belong to the 55 or more ethnic minority groups found in the central mountain highlands and the provinces adjacent to Laos and China. Between 1960-74 these minorities grew by 3.3% a year, compared to a national figure of 2.9%. By the middle of 1976 the south was fully linked up with the network of family planning services, but the birth control campaigns have met with modest success. In 1977, the unified government established a population policy and set targets for reducing the population growth rate from 3% in 1978 to 1.5% in 1990, and 1% by the year 2000. Vietnam's population could be limited to 75 million by the year 2000.
[Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.
Comparative study on migration, urbanization and development in the ESCAP region. Country reports. 3. Migration, urbanization and development in Indonesia.
New York, UN, 1981. 202 p. (ST/ESCAP/169)The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific undertook a comparative study of migration, urbanization, and development in the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand participated in the project and other countries are expected to be added in the 1980s. This monograph outlined the major features of internal migration in Indonesia as revealed by data collected prior to the census and national surveys carried out or planned for the 1980s. Chapter 1 aimed to set the scene for the migration analysis which follows by examining similarities and differences in the economic, social, and demographic variables in the urban and rural sectors of Indonesia. Chapter 2 looks at the patterns of change in population distribution in Indonesia over the past 50 years. There is an examination of the changing patterns of urban growth and urbanization over the last 1/2 century in chapter 3. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of migration in the urbanization process. The next chapter examines some of the major sociodemographic and economic characteristics of migrants. Chapters 4 and 5 rely heavily on data which came from the 1971 census. The last chapter reviews the major problems relating to migration and urbanization in Indonesia and the policies which have followed which attempt to deal with those problems. The 1971 census was the main source of data used; however, migration data from the census suffer from shortcomings in detecting the level and nature of population mobility in Indonesia. Other limitations exist as well and these are all outlined in detail.
Populi. 1983; 10(1):13-35.Levels and trends of fertility throughout the world during the 1970s are assessed in an effort to show how certain factors, modifications of which are directly or indirectly specified in the World Population Plan of Action as development goals, affected fertility and conditions of the family during the past decade. The demographic factors considered include age structure, marriage age, marital status, types of marital unions, and infant and early childhood mortality. The social, economic, and other factors include rural-urban residence, women's work, familial roles and family structure, social development, and health and contraceptive practice. Recent data indicate that the rate at which children are born into the world as a whole has continued its slow decline. During 1975-80 there were, on the average, 29 live births/1000 population at mid year. During the preceding 5-year period, there occurred annually about 32 live births/1000 population. This change represents a decline of 3 births/1000 population worldwide and approximately 14 million fewer births over a period of 5 years. This change in the global picture largely reflects the precipitous downward course that appears to have characterized China's crude birthrate. There are marked differences in fertility levels between developing and developed regions. In developing countries, births occurred on the average at the rate of 33/1000 population during 1975-80, compared with only about 16/1000 in the developed nations. Levels of the crude birthrate varied even more among individual countries. The changes in levels and trends of fertility may be attributed to many of the factors noted in the Plan of Action as requiring national and international efforts at improvement. The populations of the less developed and more developed regions as a whole aged somewhat during the decade of the 1970s. In both regions, the number of women in the reproductive ages increased relative to the size of the total population, but the change was more marked in the less developed regions. Recommendations in the Plan of Action as to establishment of an appropriate minimum age at 1st marriage subsume existence of too low an age at 1st marriage mainly in certain developing countries. The Plan of Action calls for the reduction of infant mortality as a goal in itself using a variety of means. Achievement of this goal might also affect fertility. Recent findings concerning the influence of social, economic, and other factors upon fertility levels and change are summarized, with focus on topics highlighted in the World Population Plan of Action.