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  1. 201
    712748

    Population 70. Family Planning and Social Change. (Proceedings of the Second Conference of the Western Pacific Region of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, Tokyo, 13-16 October 1970.)

    Tokyo, International Planned Parenthood Federation, Western Pacific Region, April 1971. 191 p

    This booklet includes all the papers presented at the Second Conference of the Western Pacific Region of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, in Tokyo in 1970. The papers are on different aspects of social change in the Asian countries in the 1970s population, food resources, manpower resources, economic development, changing family patterns, urbanization, and the status of women.
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  2. 202
    014198

    Asian and Pacific population targets.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division. General Demography Section

    Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1982; 11(4):22-4.

    2 population targets for the Asian and Pacific regions were established in 1981-82: 1) by the Asian Conference of Parliamentarians on Population and Development at Beijing, China to attain 1% population growth rate for the Asian region by the year 2000, and 2) by the 3rd Asian and Pacific Population Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka, to attain replacement level of fertility by the year 2000. In an attempt to ascertain whether these targets can be achieved and/or related, the Population Division of the UN's Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) prepared population projections in which the 2 targets are achieved. These projections were prepared by aggregating the total population of member countries. When net reproduction rate (NRR) equals 1 (replacement level fertility) it will lead to a stable population with a growth rate of zero. In the short-term a population with replacement level fertility will continue to increase if it has a young age structure due to previous higher levels of fertility. Some projections for the period 1980-2005 are: 1) population growth rate will decrease from 1.78% to 1.05%, 2) total fertility rate will decrease from 3.63-2.11, 3) male life expectancy will increase from 59.8-67.3, and 4) infant mortality rate will decrease from 67.3-34.5. For the ESCAP region, a target of NRR of 1 would be easier to achieve than a growth rate of 1%. The UN projects the total population of the region to be 3,382,000,000 in the year 2000. If the NRR can be lowered to 1 by then, however, the total population would be 3,342,000,000 and if the growth rate can be reduced to 1% by the end of the century the resulting population would be 3,300,000,000. Major demographic benefits will be attained in terms of the age structure of the population if a 1% growth rate is achieved; the proportion under age 15 was 37.1% in 1980 but will be 27.2% in 2000 with a dependency ratio of 48.8 compared to 70.8 for 1980.
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  3. 203
    014194

    Long-range global population projections, as assessed in 1980.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.

    UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)
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  4. 204
    266010

    Law, population and development in Swaziland.

    Amoah PK; Mandara NA; Nhlapo RT; Simelane NO; Takirambudde PN

    Kwaluseni, Swaziland, University College of Swaziland Department of Law, Law and Population Project, 1982. 75 p.

    This report describes the findings of a 2-year research project conducted principally by the Law Department of the University College of Swaziland with input from the Geography Department and the Ministry of Health, funded by UNFPA. The study questions the extent to which the legal system can be used as an instrument of population policy and development. In this context population policy and development can be characterized as processes which increase approximation to the goal of an optimum population. The different essays dealing with the various aspects of law and population underline the multidimensional and complex character of the population problem. The monograph is divided into 3 parts. Part 1 describes the population including spatial distribution, age-sex distribution and the implications of population growth for development in the area. Part 2 describes the institutions governing family growth and planning including traditional methods of birth control and attitudes towards contraception. The laws of marriage, illegitimacy, and adoption are discussed including the Common Law and Statutory Position, and the Income Tax Law is described. Part 3 contains discussions on the uses of the resources of the country from a legal point of view. This includes theory of property law, the morphogenesis of property regimes and 4 alternatives suggested for the future of property law in Swaziland. Population and development is an interactive process because what can be achieved through access to land affects what can be achieved in social investment, education, and health. This study attempts to deal with the larger social setting, the socioeconomic matrix, than with technical legal provisions in order to avoid the narrow analyses of the past.
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  5. 205
    019819

    Demographic-economic model building for Japan.

    Ogawa N; Sadahiro A; Kondo M; Ezaki M

    In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)

    This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
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  6. 206
    268337

    Population growth: a global problem.

    Rosenfield A

    In: Current problems in obstetrics and gynecology, Vol. 5, No. 6, edited by John M. Leventhal. Chicago, Illinois, Year Book Medical Publishers, 1982. 4-41.

    This article addresses the medical aspects of population growth, with specific focus on a demographic overview, population policies, family planning programs, and population issues in the US. The dimensions of the population problem and their implications for social and economic development are reviewed. The world's response to these issues is discussed, followed by an assessment of what has been accomplished, particularly as it relates to the record of national family planning programs in developing countries. The impact of population growth on such issues as education, available farm land, deforestation, and urban growth are discussed. Urban populations are growing at an unprecedented rate, posing urgent problems for action. From a public health perspective, data are reviewed which demonstrate that having children at short intervals (2 years) or at unfavorable maternal ages (18 or 35) and/or parity (4) has a negative impact on maternal, infant and childhood morbidity and mortality, particularly in developing countries. Increasing the age of marriage, delaying the 1st birth, changing and improving the status of women, increasing educational levels and improving living conditions in general also are important in reducing population growth. Probably the most important, but most controversial intervention, has been the development of national family planning programs aimed at increasing the public's access to modern contraceptive and sterilization methods. India was the 1st country to declare a formal population policy (in the 1950s) with the goal of reducing population growth. Currently, close to 35 countries have formal policies. The planned parenthood movement, with central support from the London office of the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), has played a most important role in making family planning services available. 2 population issues in the US today are reviewed briefly in the final section: teenage pregnancy and the changing age structure.
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