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  1. 176

    China: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 May. xii, 156 p. (Report No. 67)

    A Needs Assessment and Program Development Mission visited the People's Republic of China from March 7 to April 16, 1983 to: review and analyze the country's population situation within the context of national population goals as well as population related development objectives, strategies, and programs; make recommendations on the future orientation and scope of national objectives and programs for strengthening or establishing new objectives, strategies, and programs; and make recommendations on program areas in need of external assistance within the framework of the recommended national population program and for geographical areas. This report summarizes the needs and recommendations in regard to: population policies and policy-related research; demographic research and training; basic population data collection and analysis; maternal and child health and family planning services; management training support for family planning services; logistics of contraceptive supply; management information system; family planning communication and education; family planning program research and evaluation; contraceptive production; research in human reproduction and contraceptives; population education and dissemination of population information; and special groups and multisectoral activities. The report also presents information on the national setting (geographical and cultural features, government and administration, the economy, and the evolution of socioeconomic development planning) and demographic features (population size, characteristics, and distribution, nationwide and demographic characteristics in geographical core areas). Based on its assessment of needs, the Mission identified mjaor priorities for assistance in the population field. Because of China's size and vast needs, external assistance for population programs would be diluted if provided to all provincial and lower administrative levels. Thus, the Mission suggests that a substantial portion of available resources be concentrated in 3 provinces as core areas: Sichuan, the most populous province (100,220,000 people by the end of 1982); Guandong, the province with the highest birthrate (25/1000); and Jiangsu, the most densely populated province (608 persons/square kilometer. In all the government has identified 11 provinces needing special attention in the next few years: Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin, Shaanxi and Shandong, in addition to Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan.
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  2. 177

    A survey of population in the ESCAP region.

    Asian and Pacific Population Programme News. 1985 Mar; 14(1):2-5.

    In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.
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  3. 178

    [External migration in 1983] Buitenlandse migratie in 1983

    Dekkers AJM; Kuijper H

    Maandstatistiek Van de Bevolking. 1985 Feb; 33(2):41-80.

    An analysis of international migration to and from the Netherlands in 1983 is presented. The demographic characteristics of both immigrants and emigrants are described, with attention to marital status, family relationship, sex, age, region of origin, and urban or rural residence. An appendix is included on the new U.N. recommendations concerning the collection of international migration statistics and the extent to which the Dutch data conform to these recommendations. (summary in ENG) (ANNOTATION)
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  4. 179

    Action by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974: monitoring of population trends and policies.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Council. Population Commission

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1984 Dec. 10. 15 p. (E/CN.9/1984/2/Add.1)

    Pursuant to the recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action adopted in 1974, which was reaffirmed by the International Conference on Population in 1984, the United Nations has been undertaking a biennial review of population trends and policies. At the 22nd session of the Population Commission, held in January 1984, the Commission requested the Secretary-General to prepare an addendum to the concise report on monitoring of population trends and policies for the 23rd session, bearing in mind the relatively short time span since the preparation of the last such report. The purpose of the present document is to provide the Population Commission with such information to facilitate its deliberation on the agenda item. Analyses show that the gradual slow-down of global population growth is still holding with the present rate estimated at 1.65%/year, down from 2% during the 1960s. Declines have occurred in both the developed and the developing countries. Regional diversity of population trends have been so large that an overall global assessment seems almost irrelevant for policy consideration at national levels. The future population growth rate is expected to decline slower than it did in the past 15 years unless population policies change significantly. During the 1980-85 period the working age population (15-64 years) in the developing countries is estimated to have increased, on the average, at an annual rate of 2.8%, the elderly population (60 and over) at 3% and women in the reproductive ages (15-49 years) at 2.9%. The most urgent problem for many developing countries is perhaps the continuing very rapid increase of the working age population. The aging of the population, which bears significant policy implications, is among the most salient features of population change in the world, except for Africa. Fertility rates in most developed countries continue to fluctuate at low levels. No current data on developing country rates are available. An overall improvement in mortality in most countries is noted. A high rate of urban population growth in developing countries is a tremendous problem facing these countries. International migration, social and economic implications, demographic perceptions and governmental policies are summarized. National sovereignty, human rights, cultural values and peace are stressed as important factors in population policies. Women's status is discussed as playing a role in population change.
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  5. 180

    Country statement: Ethiopia.

    [Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 21 p.

    This discussion of Ethiopia focuses on: sources of demographic data; population size and age-sex distribution; urbanization; fertility; marital status of the population; mortality and health; rate of natural increase; economic activity and labor force activity rates; food production; education; population policies and programs; and population in development planning. As of 1983, Ethiopia's population was estimated at 33.7 million. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Ethiopia has not yet conducted a population census, however, the 1st population and housing census is planned for 1984. The population is young with children under 15 years of age constituting 45.4% of the total population; 3.5% of the population are aged 65 years and older. The degree of urbanization is very low while the urban growth rate is very high. Most of the country is rural with only 15% of the population living in localities of 2000 or more inhabitants. In 1980-81 the crude birthrate was 46.9/1000. The total fertility rate was 6.9. Of those aged 15 years and older, 69.2% of males and 71.3% of females are married. According to the 1980-81 Demographic Survey the estimates of the levels of mortality were a crude death rate of 18.4/1000 and an infant mortality rate of 144/1000. At this time 45% of the population have access to health services. It is anticipated that 80% of the population will be covered by health care services in 10 years time. Ethiopia is increasing at a very rapid rate of natural increase; the 1980 estimation was 2.9% per annum. Despite the rich endowments in agricultural potential, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in food production and reamins a net importer of grain. Enrollment at various levels of education is expanding rapidly. There is no official population policy. Financial assistance received from the UN Fund for Population Activities and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund for population programs is shown.
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  6. 181

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  7. 182

    Fresh thinking on fertility.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Populi. 1983; 10(1):13-35.

    Levels and trends of fertility throughout the world during the 1970s are assessed in an effort to show how certain factors, modifications of which are directly or indirectly specified in the World Population Plan of Action as development goals, affected fertility and conditions of the family during the past decade. The demographic factors considered include age structure, marriage age, marital status, types of marital unions, and infant and early childhood mortality. The social, economic, and other factors include rural-urban residence, women's work, familial roles and family structure, social development, and health and contraceptive practice. Recent data indicate that the rate at which children are born into the world as a whole has continued its slow decline. During 1975-80 there were, on the average, 29 live births/1000 population at mid year. During the preceding 5-year period, there occurred annually about 32 live births/1000 population. This change represents a decline of 3 births/1000 population worldwide and approximately 14 million fewer births over a period of 5 years. This change in the global picture largely reflects the precipitous downward course that appears to have characterized China's crude birthrate. There are marked differences in fertility levels between developing and developed regions. In developing countries, births occurred on the average at the rate of 33/1000 population during 1975-80, compared with only about 16/1000 in the developed nations. Levels of the crude birthrate varied even more among individual countries. The changes in levels and trends of fertility may be attributed to many of the factors noted in the Plan of Action as requiring national and international efforts at improvement. The populations of the less developed and more developed regions as a whole aged somewhat during the decade of the 1970s. In both regions, the number of women in the reproductive ages increased relative to the size of the total population, but the change was more marked in the less developed regions. Recommendations in the Plan of Action as to establishment of an appropriate minimum age at 1st marriage subsume existence of too low an age at 1st marriage mainly in certain developing countries. The Plan of Action calls for the reduction of infant mortality as a goal in itself using a variety of means. Achievement of this goal might also affect fertility. Recent findings concerning the influence of social, economic, and other factors upon fertility levels and change are summarized, with focus on topics highlighted in the World Population Plan of Action.
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  8. 183

    Comparative study on migration, urbanization and development in the ESCAP region. Country reports. 3. Migration, urbanization and development in Indonesia.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    New York, UN, 1981. 202 p. (ST/ESCAP/169)

    The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific undertook a comparative study of migration, urbanization, and development in the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand participated in the project and other countries are expected to be added in the 1980s. This monograph outlined the major features of internal migration in Indonesia as revealed by data collected prior to the census and national surveys carried out or planned for the 1980s. Chapter 1 aimed to set the scene for the migration analysis which follows by examining similarities and differences in the economic, social, and demographic variables in the urban and rural sectors of Indonesia. Chapter 2 looks at the patterns of change in population distribution in Indonesia over the past 50 years. There is an examination of the changing patterns of urban growth and urbanization over the last 1/2 century in chapter 3. Chapter 4 focuses on the role of migration in the urbanization process. The next chapter examines some of the major sociodemographic and economic characteristics of migrants. Chapters 4 and 5 rely heavily on data which came from the 1971 census. The last chapter reviews the major problems relating to migration and urbanization in Indonesia and the policies which have followed which attempt to deal with those problems. The 1971 census was the main source of data used; however, migration data from the census suffer from shortcomings in detecting the level and nature of population mobility in Indonesia. Other limitations exist as well and these are all outlined in detail.
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  9. 184

    Population projections, 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population). [tables]

    Zachariah KC; Vu MT; Elwan A

    [Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.

    Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.
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  10. 185

    Vietnam census reveals imbalances.

    Fraser S

    People. 1981; 8(2):24.

    Partial results from the first nationwide census in modern Vietnam's history show that the country is now supporting over 54 million people, growing at about 2.3% per year. The census was held in October, 1979, with UNFPA assistance and involved 1.4 million census takers. There is a severe imbalance between males and females in the 25-45 age group, reflecting the casualties of the war. The sex ratio is 94.2 males for every 100 females. Women account for nearly 45% of the workforce and 60% of all rural workers. Over 80% of the population live in the countryside. During the last 20 years, the north has reduced its growth rate by nearly 30% with the rigorous implementation of birth control programs, especially in the most densely populated area of the Bac Bo Delta. Nearly 10% of the population (5 million) belong to the 55 or more ethnic minority groups found in the central mountain highlands and the provinces adjacent to Laos and China. Between 1960-74 these minorities grew by 3.3% a year, compared to a national figure of 2.9%. By the middle of 1976 the south was fully linked up with the network of family planning services, but the birth control campaigns have met with modest success. In 1977, the unified government established a population policy and set targets for reducing the population growth rate from 3% in 1978 to 1.5% in 1990, and 1% by the year 2000. Vietnam's population could be limited to 75 million by the year 2000.
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  11. 186

    World population: the present and future crisis.

    Piotrow PT

    New York, Foreign Policy Association, 1980 Oct. 80 p. (Headline Series 251)

    World population will be facing serious problems in the 1980s and 1990s as a result of 2 population trends which are presently dominating the demographic scene. The number of young people aged 15-30 in developing countries is increasing rapidly and they will be soon asserting themselves politically, economically, and socially. The 2nd trend which exists is the disparity between high population growth in the impoverished developing countries and the lower rates in the affluent industrial countries. This century's population growth has occurred primarily in the developing world and is the result of lower death rates rather than higher birthrates. The situation is attributable to demographic transition; however, the major demographic questions of how quickly birthrates will fall and how wide the gap will be before birthrates follow the classic transition remain unanswered. 3 approaches to help answer these and other demographic questions are: 1) demographic approach; 2) historical approach; and 3) observation of recent events. These various approaches are given attention in this monograph. The consequences of too rapid population growth can be seen in the low food supplies which exist leaving many in developing countries undernourished, in a decline in the quality of life, in the reduction of the potential capacity to produce what is necessary (diminished land resources, pollution of water and air), in the increases in the price of energy and natural resources, in the difficulties in acquiring employment opportunities, and in burgeoning urban growth (which puts a serious strain on housing, transportation, etc.). Family planning was adopted in various countries in the world despite government policies to counter this. While there is recognition of the need for measures to be taken to reduce fertility, the question of how to accomplish this still remains. A brief overview of developing country adoption of family policies is included. What become clear is that family planning programs do make a difference in birthrate reduction and in population growth control. An effective, extensive family planning/population program exists in the People's Republic of China; Indonesia, Colombia, Tunisia, and Mauritius are other countries with successful programs. Various socioeconomic factors influence fertility and they include: literacy and education, urbanization, improvement in the status of women, health, family or community structure, development (modernization), and even the lack of development. Population and development will be greatly affected in the future by the quality and depth of leadership. Government leadership and the private sector, donor agencies, as well as international leadership, especially that of the UNFPA, will be critical. Also included here are discussion questions and reading references for those who are interested.
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  12. 187

    The degree of success achieved in the population projections for Latin America made since 1950: sources of error: data and studies needed in order to improve the basis for calculating projections.

    Pelaez CA

    In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 3. Selected papers and summaries: projections, measurement of population trends. New York, UN, 1967. 27-33. (E/CONF.41/4)

    High, medium, and low population size and age-sex structure projections, prepared by the United Nations in 1954-1955 for 15 Latin American countries, were compared to recent census data in an effort to evaluate the success of the projections, to identify sources of error, and to suggest ways to improve projections in the future. For the countries as a whole, the high projections underestimated the actual population by 3.35%, the medium projections underestimated the population by 4.5%, and the low projections underestimated the population by 7%. Deviation for individual projections ranged from a 14.03% overestimation of the Peruvian population to a 15.05% underestimation of the Costa Rican population. In general, projections were considered unsuccessful except for those made for Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and Argentina. The projections for each country were examined and the sources of error were identified. In some cases, even though the projections were not grossly deviant from the actual population, the results were due to a series of errors which happened to cancel each other out. Errors were due either to the inappropriate use of methodological procedures or to the failure to adequately anticipate fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Errors can be minimized in the future by improving the population base data on which the projections are made. Although progress was made in improving census-taking in Latin America during the 1950s, censuses taken since 1960 have once again declined in quality. Furthermore, many countries still lack adequate vital records systems. Until the quality of the vital records and census systems is improved, sample surveys should be used to develop population base data for making projections. There is also a need to improve data gathering in reference to international migration patterns and trends.
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  13. 188

    World population prospects as assessed in 1973.

    United Nations

    New York, UN, 1977. 183 p. (Population Studies No. 60)

    The projections in this report cover the years 1970-2000. Quinquennial projections were prepared by sex and 5-year groups for each of 155 countries, 8 major areas, and 24 regions. Projections by sex and single years of age for population between ages 5-24 are provided for every region and country. Other demographic indicators were calculated for each region including population totals for males and females, sex ratio, percentage distribution by age category, dependency ratio, median age, crude birth and death rates, general and total fertility rate, life expectancy, and gross and net reproduction rate. In 1975 the world population was estimated at 4 billion; the medium variant projection for the year 2000 is 6.25 billion. The rate of growth is estimated at 1.9% for 1970. A downward trend is expected for 1985 when growth will slow to 1.6%. There will continue to be wide disparities in the rates of growth of developed and less developed nations. In the less developed regions the annual rate of growth is expected to maintain its current 2.3-2.4% for about 15 years, 1970-85, reaching 1.9%, after a downward trend, by 2000. The more developed regions should decline from .9% to .6%. The highest average annual rate of growth is in Latin America, 2.7%, (1970-5). In 1975 Africa had the highest annual rate of growth, expected to exceed 2.9% from 1985-2000. Only Eastern Africa and Middle America are expected to exceed 3% up to 1990-95.
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  14. 189

    Projection of world population (distinguishing more developed and less developed areas at present).

    Vavra Z

    In: United Nations. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs. Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August-10 September 1965. Vol. 2. Selected papers and summaries: fertility, family planning, mortality. New York, UN, 1967. 49-53. (E/CONF.41/3)

    U.N. world population projections place the world population in the year 2000 at anywhere between 6000 million and 7400 million. The less developed areas of the world are growing more rapidly than the developed areas. This will mean that the developed areas, which accounted for nearly 1/3 of the world population in 1960, will only account for less than 1/4 by the end of the century. The annual rate of increase suggests that the tempo of growth may be slowing slightly. The developing areas are still growing at twice the rate of the developed areas. Tables present these population projections and various projections on age structure of future populations. The world population, especially that in the developed countries, is aging, with all the concomitant social changes which that occurrence entails. The general problem of population growth must be handled within a context of socioeconomic developmental planning for each nation.
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  15. 190


    Menes RJ

    Washington, D.C., U.S. Office of International Health, Division of Planning and Evaluation, 1976. 144 p. (Syncrisis: the dynamics of health, XIX)

    This report uses available statistics to examine health conditions in Senegal and their interaction with socioeconomic development. Background data are presented, after which population, health status, nutrition, environmental health, health infrastructure, facilities, services and manpower, national health policy and planning, international organizations, and the Sahel are discussed. Diseases such as malaria, measles, tuberculosis, trachoma and venereal diseases are endemic in Senegal, and high levels of infant and childhood mortality exist throughout the country but especially in rural areas. Diarrhea, respiratory infections, and neonatal tetanus contribute to this mortality and are evidence of the poor health environment, and lack of basic services including nutrition assistance, health education, and potable water. Nutrition in Senegal appears to be good in general, but seasonal and local variations sometimes produce malnutrition. Lowered fertility rates would reduce infant and maternal mortality and morbidity and might slow the present decline in per capita food intake. At present the government of Senegal has no population policy and almost no provisions for family planning services. Health services are inadequate and inefficient, with shortages of all levels of health manpower, poor planning, and overemphasis on curative services.
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  16. 191


    Loomis SA

    Washington, D.C., U.S. Office of International Health, Division of Planning and Evaluation, 1976. 92 p. (Syncrisis: the dynamics of health, XVII)

    This article uses available statistics to analyze health conditions in Bangladesh and their impact on the country's socioeconomic development. Background information on the country is first given, after which population characteristics, health status, nutrition, national health policy and adminstration, health services and programs, population programs, environmental sanitation, health sector resources, financing of health care and donor assistance are examined. Bangladesh's 3% annual population increase is expected to increase already great population pressure and to have a negative impact on the health status of the population. Although reliable health statistics are lacking, infant mortality is estimated at 140 per 1000, 40% of all deaths occur in the 0-4 age group, and maternal mortality is high. Infectious diseases exacerbated by malnutrition are the main causes of death. 4 key factors are responsible for the general malnutrition: 1) rapidly growing population, 2) low per capita income, 3) high incidence of diarrheal diseases, and 4) dietary practices that restrict nutrient intake. Most of the population has access only to traditional health services, and medical education is hospital oriental and curative, with minimal emphasis on public health. The level of environmental sanitation is extremely low.
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  17. 192

    Fertility in Nigeria.

    Van de Walle E

    In: Brass W, Coale AJ, Demeny P, Heisel DF, Lorimer F, Romaniuk A, Van de Walle E. The demography of tropical Africa. Princeton, New Jersey, Princeton University Press, 1968. 515-27.

    There is no information on fertility or mortality representative of numbers of Nigerian people. Vital statistics are registered in Lagos but are not representative of the country. The first census was taken in 1952-53 but contained no information of fertility and mortality. The 1962 census was invalidated. The political confusion surrounding the 1963 census will probably invalidate it. Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. The 1963 census of 56 million is an overestimate, but is much larger than the other countries. According to UN estimates based on the 1953 census, the gross reproduction rate was 3.7 and the crude birth rate between 53 and 57. Age data for boys is recorded systematically as lower than those of girls of the same real age until age 15. Slower physical development and the desire to avoid taxation may account for the discrepancies. Certain tribes tend to conceal their number of children, particularly the first born. Among Moslems it is impossible to check the number of married women who are in "purdah." Migration from and to areas of Nigeria probably affected the young adult male and was not reported. The area of highest fertility was estimated to be in Western Nigeria, particularly in the Yoruba region. The eastern region includes one low-fertility area, Cameroons Province, with a gross reproduction rate under 3.
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  18. 193

    Screening procedures for detecting errors in maternity history data.

    Brass W

    In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, World Fertility Survey, and International Institute for Population Studies. Regional Workshop on Techniques of Analysis of World Fertility Survey data: report and selected papers. New York, UN, 1979. 15-36. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 44)

    The World Fertility Survey provides data from national maternity history inquiries. Detecting trends and differentials is only as accurate as the data collected. Where evidence suggests error, the analysis may be restricted to obtaining only a measure of fertility level. The basic data is the date and order of birth of each live born child for a sample of women in the reproductive period, according to the current age of the women and their duration of marriage. The cohort marker is usually separated into 7 5-year classes determined by age at interview; sample of women is representative of the female population of childbearing age. Total births for each cohort are allocated to different periods preceding the survey date. Reading down the columns gives the births to different cohorts over different ranges in the same time interval preceding the survey. To detect omissions, check the overall sex ratio and the sex ratios by periods; examine the trends of infant mortality by cohorts and periods; an excess of male mortality over female indicates poor reporting of dead female children and/or of sex (a common omission). From data on age of mother and number of surviving children at the survey and estimates of mortality level, the numbers of births at preceding periods may be calculated.
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  19. 194

    World population trends and policies: 1977 monitoring report. Vol. 1. Population trends.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, UN, 1979. 279 p. (Population studies No. 62)

    This report was prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat on the basis of inputs by the Division, the International Labour Organisation, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, and the World Health Organization. Tables are presented for sex compositions of populations; demographic variables; percentage rates of change of unstandardized maternal mortality rates and ratios; population enumerated in the United States and born in Latin America; urban and rural population, annual rates of growth, and percentage of urban in total population, the world, the more developed and the less developed regions, 1950-75; crude death rates, by rural and urban residence, selected more developed countries; childhood mortality rates, age 1-4 years; and many others. The world population amounted to nearly 4 billion in 1975, a 60% increase over the 1950 population of 2.5 billion. The global increase is about 2%. The average death rate in developing areas has dropped from 25/1000 in 1950 to about 15/1000, a 40% decline. Estimates of birth rates in developing countries are 40-45 for 1950 and 35-40/1000 for 1975. Most of the shifts in vital trends in the less developed regions are still at an early stage or of limited geographical scope.
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  20. 195

    Afghanistan: a demographic uncertainty.


    Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1978. (International Research Document No. 6) 12p

    Compiling population data for Afghanistan is made difficult by the nomadic population. Estimates of their numbers range from 1-2 million people, 9-14% of the total. A 1972-73 survey of the settled population accumulated data from approximately 21,000 households and 120,000 individuals. Pregnancy and marital histories were acquired from 10,000 women. The age-specific fertility rate was 8 per woman; crude birth rate, 43/1000. Estimated life expectancy for males was 34-42 years, for females, 36-41 years. The crude death rate is 28-32/1000. Of the 10,020,099 total settled population, 5,373,249 were male, 4,646,850 were female. The Afghan Family Guidance Association opened the first family planning clinic in 1968. By 1972 there were 18 clinics in operation. When surveyed, 3% of women over 15 knew about family planning, only 1/3 of these had used a family planning method. 66% males and 90% females over 15 were ever-married. About 11% of those over 6 years were literate, 18.7% males, 2.8% females.
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  21. 196

    [Panorama of Costa Rica, 1973. Demographic and social aspects] Panorama de Costa Rica, 1973. Aspectos demograficos y sociales.

    Bermudez MV; Gomez BM

    Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Poblacion (CESPO), Departamento de Investigacion, Universidad de Costa Rica, 1974. 37 p

    A broad synthesis of some socioeconomic and demographic aspects of the population of Costa Rica at the end of 1973 is presented. It covers population size, number of households, marital status of women of reproductive age, age at marriage, population growth, age structure and distribution, ethnic and religious elements, educational level, economic activity, future tendencies, population growth and economic development, historical aspects of the population problem, and the national family planning program. Costa Rica had an annual growth rate of 3.8% in the period 1950-1960; by 1972 the rate was 2.5%. The drop did not seem to be due to the family planning program, though the program's existence may have accelerated the process. Because of the high growth rates, the population is young and dependency rates are high. However, the drop in the birthrate will significantly alter the population structure by the year 2000 such that only 34.1% will be under 15 and 4.4% will be over 65. That fact together with the economic prospects of the country should result in a significantly higher standard of living for the populous in the next decade. The role of the family planning program will become increasingly important as modernization succeeds in lowering mortality rates and increasing longevity.
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  22. 197

    Human fertility and national development: a challenge to science and technology.

    United Nations

    In: Joyce, J.A., comp. World population, basic documents: volume 2, modern times. Dobbs Ferry, New York, Oceana, 1976. p. 439-481

    An overview of the world population crisis is presented with an emphasis on historical perspective, the dichotomy between developing and developed countries, and the purposes and accomplishments of the U.N. system of organizations relevant to the field of population. Discussions of the following areas are included: 1) past and prospective future population trends; 2) the implications of high fertility and rapid population growth on health, food, employment, education, and migration; 3) the growth of national population policies and some specific examples of policies adopted at the international level; and 4) the development and financing of the various population programs in the U.N. system.
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  23. 198

    World population, women aged 15-44, and women at risk by IPPF regions.

    International Planned Parenthood Federation [IPPF]. Evaluation and Social Sciences Department

    (London, IPPF), May 1975. 15 p.

    Population data was gathered by the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) to use for budgetary purposes. Statistical population tables are presented for 222 countries grouped into 8 large regions. The tables show: total population, growth rates and birthrates for the countries and regions for each year since 1970. Based on these figures, projections for 1976 are made. The number of women in the 15-44 year age group for each country and region is given. A standard formula yields the number of women at risk, correcting for sterile couples, sexually inactive women, and those not having 3 children yet. IPPF figures are compared with the latest United Nations projections.
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  24. 199

    Recent population trends and future prospects. (Item 7 of the provisional agenda)

    United Nations World Population Conference (1974: Bucharest)

    Bucharest, U.N., (E/Conf.60/3). 1974; 97.

    The Report of the Secretary General on Recent Population Trends and Future Prospects includes a discussion of the growth of population. Noted is the fact that the world's population of 2500 million in 1950 increased to 3900 million by early 1974. It is expected that this figure will increase to 4000 million during 1975. The annual percentage rate of increase is expected to slow down between now and the year 2000, but world population will still be increasing in the 1900s about as rapidly as it did during the 1950s. Most of the population increase has occurred in the developing countries where incomes are lowest and educational and employment opportunities for the young are limited. The remaining 11 subject areas of the report concentrate on births, deaths a nd natural increase; prospects of stabilizing population; paths of transition from high to low fertility; factors of declining fertility in the processes of development and modernization; effects of governmental policy and action programs on fertility trends; modernization of mortality; international migration; population strucutre, labor force and dependency; the density of population; agricultural population and land; and urbanization and metropolitan concentration. 5 figures are included which present information on the population in major areas of the world; the impact of sex and age structure, nuptiality and marital fertility on crude birthrates; trends in expectation of life at birth in selected countries; sex-age structure of the population in less and more developed regions; and urban, rural and agricultural population in the more and less developed regions of the world. 2 annexes provide a glossary of demographic terms used in this document and 20 tables relating to the contents of the report.
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  25. 200

    Iran's population - past, present and future.

    Alizadeh M

    Teheran, Iran, Population and Manpower Bureau, Planning Division, November 1973. 75 p. (Unpublished)

    The structure and characteristics of Iran's current population are analyzed, and an attempt is made to review and analyze Iran's population evolution and determine its future trends in the light of the research studies conducted by various organizations. Until the second half of the nineteenth century there was no population census in Iran. The period after 1946 was marked by an increase in the annual population growth rate. The size and structure of the population bears a direct relationship to changes in the economic and social conditions. The population strategy of Iran is designed so as to slow down the rate of population growth by reducing the birthrate. This study demonstrated that it cannot be expected that the population growth rate will decrease to 2% annually in the next 20 years. The death rate will decrease to .8% and the birthrate will decrease to 3-3.4%. The article provides tables on the size of population, living conditions, population changes, and urbanization trends based on the projections of this study.
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