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  1. 51
    104713

    The sex and age distribution of the world populations. The 1994 revision.

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. ix, 858 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/144)

    The population projections included in this UN volume were based on the 1994 revisions. Projections and estimates were given for national populations and regions. Sex and age distributions were provided for the period 1950-90 and projected figures were provided for 1995-2050. The projections included high, medium, and low fertility variants. Countries were included if their population exceeded 150,000. Smaller countries were included in regional totals only. A full description of methodology and projection assumptions was given in a prior publication, "World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision." Estimates were derived from available national data and adjusted for deficiencies and inconsistencies. The sex and age structure was set for the base year of 1990 and data was consistent with previous censuses and surveys and past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
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  2. 52
    103751

    New UN projections include local effects of AIDS.

    Kalish S

    POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Oct; 20(10):1-2.

    Reaching 5.5 billion in mid-1992, global population is basically on track with population projections made in 1990. About 60% of the world's population currently lives in ten countries; China and India together comprise 38% of the total. At the growth rate of 1.7%, 750 million people will be added to the world by the end of the decade, with populations of less developed countries growing four times faster than those in the more developed regions. Although the overall growth rate is as projected, all is not as expected at the country level. Compared with 1990 estimates, several African countries are growing more slowly than expected, largely due to AIDS. It is noted, however, that the UN's projected effects of the AIDS epidemic on population size are modest compared to recent speculation that AIDS could halt population growth in Africa. Latin America is also growing slower than expected due to a faster than expected decline in fertility. China is growing a bit faster than expected and India is growing a bit slower. With its 1992 revisions, the UN Population Division for the first time took into account the potential demographic impact of the AIDS pandemic. Life expectancies have been adjusted downward in the 15 countries where AIDS has the highest prevalence: Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. AIDS could reduce population growth by 20 million in these countries over the next 25 years. Population growth rates will nonetheless remain strongly positive in the next few decades with the rapid pace of fertility affecting future population growth far more than mortality or any other demographic parameter. The new projections also take into account recent international migration and sweeping global political changes.
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  3. 53
    101740

    Population redistribution in the context of rapid population growth: the urbanization of the ESCWA region 1950-2000.

    Sly DF; Serow WJ

    In: Population spatial distribution, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia [ESCWA]. Social Development, Population and Human Settlements Division. [Amman, Jordan], ESCWA, 1993 Aug 8. 1-37. (E/ESCWA/POP/1993/4)

    UN data was used to examine trends in urbanization in Western Asia (ESCWA region), to identify potential factors affecting urbanization, and to give an overview of the region's population policies. Over the past 40 years, the rate of urbanization in the region has been more rapid than anywhere else in the world. The world level of urbanization was 43% in 1990, in the ESCWA region it was 56%. By 1975, all countries in the ESCWA region experienced large urban increases, and the gaps widened between countries. The tendency was for increased changes with every five year period. Between 1960 and 1975, urban population growth was double or more than rural population growth, except for the United Arab Emirates. The pace of change slowed between 1975 and that projected for the year 2000. The gap narrowed between countries with high urbanization levels and those with moderately high levels. Increases in each 5 year interval were observed for South Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria; decreases were observed with each 5 year interval for Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and North Yemen. Zero order correlations with the Spearman rank ordering technique showed a low negative relationship between population size and level of urbanization. Density and percentage urban in the largest agglomeration were positively and strongly related to urbanization. More densely populated urban areas were subject to greater urban increases. The total economically active population was weakly correlated with level of urbanization (0.692). The percentage engaged in non-agriculture and services were more strongly correlated (0.830 and 0.714, respectively). Smaller populations tend to have more advanced nonagricultural employment. Per capita gross domestic product was strongly associated with the percentage urban (0.709), but weakly associated with the percentage urban in the largest agglomeration and not at all related to population density. Urbanization and infant mortality were inversely related (-0.681). Infant mortality was correlated more strongly with percentage economically active in services (-0.852) and in non-agriculture than density or percentage urban in the largest agglomeration. By 1990, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia had 80% of total population in urban areas. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates had urban populations ranging from 50% to 79%. Most governments in 1990 viewed their population distributions as less desirable. Nine out of 13 countries in 1976 recognized a policy objective of redistribution. All countries have a policy for promotion of small towns and intermediate sized cities. Seven countries out of 13 have policies for development of "new" towns and are using the development of public infrastructure and investment subsidies to encourage new development. Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Emirates are channeling urban development investment to specific industrial locations.
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  4. 54
    100113

    World growth rate slows, but numbers build up.

    Haub C

    POPULATION TODAY. 1994 Nov; 22(11):1-2.

    In 1992, the UN estimated annual world population growth at 1.68% for 1990-95. Official UN world population estimates and projections were, however, revised in 1994 to reflect the beginning of an apparent fertility transition in a number of sub-Saharan African, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries. This new series of UN estimates and projections reflects the resumption of a trend of declining world population growth rates which began in the mid-1960s, but stalled soon thereafter. UN demographers now calculate that over the period 1990-94, world population grew at 1.57% per year, lower than the 1.68% used in 1992, and significantly below the 1.73% per year growth rate over the period 1975-90 and the peak of 2.0% in the late 1960s. The current rate of population growth is the lowest recorded since World War II. The number of people added to world population will, however, increase annually until at least the year 2000. In mid-1994, there were 5.63 billion people in the world, 4.47 billion in developing countries and 1.16 billion in more developed countries. World population is projected to be 9.8 billion in the year 2050 in the medium series projection, 7.9 billion in the low series, and 11.9 billion in the high series. China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Pakistan, Japan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria are currently the only countries each with more than 100 million people. UN medium projections, however, indicate that by the year 2050 Ethiopia, Zaire, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Egypt, and Turkey should enter the 100-million-plus league.
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  5. 55
    099732

    Population and development. Background paper for the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September 1994.

    Blegved L; Pedersen VS; Rasmussen N; Silberschmidt M; Vilby K

    Copenhagen, Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida, 1994. [4], 63 p.

    This report identifies and discusses the central issues, problems, and contradictions in the population debate in order to provide background information for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and a basis for the development of Denmark's population policy. The introduction describes the 2 basic contradicting indicators of the unprecedented global annual growth rate of 93 million people and the equally unprecedented rapid decline in the total fertility rate in developing countries (from 6 in 1950 to 3.6 today). The next section deals with the links between population and development, including the risk of demographic traps and production and consumption traps. 6 major trends in population and sustainability are explored in terms of regional and national differences. Contradictions and myths in the population/development debate are then discussed. The third section of the report presents the demographic context including a short overview of population theories, the most recent global demographic projections, and the most important fertility determinants (infant and child mortality, the status of women, and the quality of services). Section 4 provides a discussion of the different approaches and rationales for the establishment of global and various national population policies and family planning (FP) programs. The final section is concerned with the transition from FP to sexual and reproductive health and rights. This discussion covers the role of vertical FP programs, integrated maternal-child health and FP services, and the transition to more comprehensive reproductive health services. Sexual and reproductive health is then considered within the gender framework and from a human rights perspective. Charts with data on population projections, the prevalence of contraceptive use in developing countries, and the total fertility rate since 1960 are appended.
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  6. 56
    096627

    Estimating Africa's AIDS toll.

    POPULI. 1994 Jun; 21(6):4.

    The Population Division of the UN Department for Economic and Social Information and Population Analysis has conducted a study of the AIDS pandemic's demographic impact in 15 Sun-Saharan countries. By 2005, these countries will have experienced 9 million AIDS deaths. 61% of these AIDS deaths will occur in just 4 countries (Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, and Zambia). The remaining 39% will occur in the 11 other countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe). Population growth rates will still be high, even though so many people will die from AIDS. In fact, the population is projected to increase more than 2-fold (138.4-297.9 million, between 1980 and 2005). By 2000- 2005, life expectancy in Uganda will have decreased 11 years due to Aids. People with AIDS die in their most economically and socially productive years. Thus, AIDS is affecting the size and quality of the labor forces in Sub-Saharan Africa as well as the rural agricultural sector, leading to likely food shortages. AIDS also takes away breadwinners and caregivers from families. In Berlin in September, 1993, the UN reported these findings to the round-table meeting entitled Population Policies and Programmes: The Impact of HIV/AIDS. The aim of this meeting was preparation for the upcoming International Conference on Population and Development.
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  7. 57
    094282

    A dramatic drop in human fertility.

    Wattenberg B

    BALTIMORE SUN. 1994 Mar 18; 25A.

    It is doubtful that the population will increase until it degrades the environment to the degree predicted by the UN, since worldwide fertility is decreasing greatly. A recent article in Scientific American, entitled "The Fertility Decline in Developing Countries," shows that birth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates had been very high, are falling. For example, during 1977-1978, Kenya had a total fertility rate of 8.3 but feel to 6.7 in 1989 and to 5.4 in 1993. This is one of the fastest declines in fertility ever. The fertility decline in Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Botswana and Zimbabwe) means a smaller global population than that projected by the UN. It will be more difficult to declare demographic doom at the International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo. The large fall in fertility will likely result in more money for global family planning. US President Clinton wants to contribute more money. The article showed that the drops in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa occurred even though the economy was weak. The leading determinants for this decrease were increase in age at first marriage, more female education, more contraceptive use, and urbanization. Besides, fertility has been falling in Latin America, Northern Africa, and Asia for many years. Developed countries have also experienced considerable declines in fertility: Russia 1.4, the former East Germany 0.8, Spain 1.3, and Japan 1.5. Despite these lower rates, the Un still uses higher fertility assumptions (2.1, replacement fertility) to project population growth to 7.8-10 billion people, depending on the scenario. The higher rates support the UN's belief that population growth causes food shortages and reduced natural resources.
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  8. 58
    092014

    Expert Group Meeting on Population Growth and Demographic Structure.

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):102-19.

    As part of the preparation for the forth-coming UN International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met in Paris, France, in November 1992 to discuss population growth and demographic structure. As part of the demographic background for the meeting provided by the UN Population Division, participants were informed that although the world population growth rate began to decline in the late 1970s, this decline has not yet resulted in declining absolute numbers, and the annual increment to the world population was not expected to decline to the level that existed in 1985 until the period 2020-25. World population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.3 billion in 1990. The medium variant population projection of the UN shows world population at 6.3 billion in 2000 and 8.5 billion in 2025 (the high variant shows 9.4 billion in 2025 and the low variant shows 7.6 billion). Population aging is expected to reach unparalleled levels in 2010-20. The meeting then considered the topics of population growth and socioeconomic development, confronting poverty in developing countries, demographic impacts of development patterns, demographic and health transitions, population growth and employment, social change and the elderly in developing countries, and social development and ageing in developed countries, The expert group meeting then prepared 19 recommendations aimed at governments, social institutions, and the international community. The recommendations call for political commitment to human resources development and population and development programs, especially in least developed countries, alleviation of poverty and social inequality, and equality of access to social and health resources that will lead to reduced mortality and fertility. Governments are urged to place a high priority on education and on increasing women's access to education and to remove barriers to economic independence for women. Health-sector priorities should be reassessed to provide the most cost-effective and efficient means of providing health care, reproductive health-care programs should receive high priority, and efforts should be made to minimize the effects of HIV infection and reduce the spread of AIDS. The needs of the elderly should be met with a "safety net," which should be developed in countries with no social security programs. The elderly should be recognized as an important human resource for development, and intergenerational equity should exist to accommodate their needs, with special efforts made to help them remain in their own homes and communities. Governments should collect accurate, comprehensive, and regular data on population characteristics and trends, and the international community should facilitate the comparative analysis of such data. Training should be provided to professionals in demography and related fields in developing countries.
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  9. 59
    083302

    Population projections for Mongolia: 1989-2019.

    Neupert RF

    ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL. 1992 Dec; 7(4):61-80.

    The State Statistical Office with the support of UNDESD and UNFPA prepared 3 projections. A standard cohort component method was used to project populations by sex and 5-year age groups for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019. 3 hypotheses were proposed. In Hypothesis 1, fertility was assumed to stabilize at a level of a TFR of 3.5 children per woman. In Hypothesis 3, fertility was assumed to decline up to the period 1990-2004 and up to the replacement level (2.23 children per woman during that period). Hypothesis 2 represents an intermediate situation between Hypothesis 1 and 3 which was considered as the most plausible future trend of fertility. According to Projection 2 the population of Mongolia will be almost 3.8 million in the year 2019. Projections 1 and 3 give total populations of 4.2 and 3.5 million, respectively. The difference between a TFR of 2.2 and 3.5 for the last quinquennium of the projection period resulted in a difference of around 700,000 people. The difference between Projections 1 and 2 is about 400,000 people. Considering the fertility assumptions adopted for these projections, it is not very likely that the size of the population at the turn of the century will be much smaller than 2.6 million or larger than 3 million. What is more uncertain is the scenario for the 2nd decade of next century. During the next 2 decades, the growth will become gradually more moderate. The main changes will be an increase in the proportion of the population between 15 and 64 years of age, a decline in the proportion of the young population of the young population resulting in a substantial decrease of the dependency ratio and an increase in the median age of the population. According to the 3 hypotheses, the young population will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. There will be a decline in the proportion of young to old people and an increase in the proportion of the population in the working age groups. Yet, all age groups will continue to increase in absolute terms. International migration may produce some deviations in this expected profile.
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  10. 60
    090038

    Population in the 22nd century, from the United Nations long range projections.

    Grinblat JA

    In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 2, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 249-58.

    Information is provided on the population of the world to the year 2150 based on UN long-range projections. 9 major areas were consolidated into Group 1 (Northern America, Europe, Oceania, and USSR) and Group II (China, India, Other Asia, Latin America, and Africa). The long-range projections use as a base the population size for 2025 from 1 of the 4 variants of the 1990 Revision. Extensions were prepared to the 1990 Revision: the medium, medium/low, low, medium/high, high, and constant fertility extensions. According to the medium fertility extension, the population of the world but be multiplied by 4.6 between the years 1950 and 2150, growing from 2.5 billion to 11.5 billion, and eventually stabilize at 11.6 billion a half century later. By the year 2150 there will be 33% more old people, aged 65 and over, than children under age 15, and 50% as many very old people, aged 80 and over, as children. In 2150 the proportion of the population under age 15 will be 18%, having declined from 32% in 1990 and 21% in 2050. In 2150, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will be 24%; up from 6% in 1990 and 14% in 2050. The proportion of aged 80 and over will increase from 1% in 1990 to 3% in 2050 and 0% in 2150. The range in projected population size, for the year 2150, between the low and high fertility extensions is 4.3 billion persons to 28.0 billion persons assuming future fertility stabilized at 1.7 r 2.5 children/woman. Although the areas in Group 1 include about 20% of the population of the world in 1990, they will contribute less than 2% of the increase in the world population between 1990 and 2150, with more than 98% taking place in the areas of Group II (medium extension). The growth of the world population will take place essentially in the Group II. Africa will continue to be the fastest growing area. Its population is projected to be multi lied by 14 between 1950 and 2150. Its share of the world population will reach 27% in 2150 with a total of 3 billion and 90 million inhabitants.
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  11. 61
    082184

    Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.

    Vu MT; Bos E; Levin A

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)

    Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
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  12. 62
    080981

    World population projections, 1992-93 edition. Estimates and projections with related demographic statistics.

    Bos E; Vu MT; Levin A; Bulatao RA

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992. vii, 515 p.

    Statistical tales provided population projections every 5 years between 1985 and 2030 and every 25 years between 1985 and 2150. Data were also given for the birth, death, natural increase, net migration, growth, fertility, net reproduction, and infant mortality rates. The projections were an update of this series in 1990, and take into account the impact of AIDS; other changes included the inclusion of the 15 countries of the former Soviet Union, the combined Germanys and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Croatia and Slovenia. The overview of trends and projections indicated that Southeast Asia and Latin America have had rapid mortality and fertility decline, while most sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have had little change. Population growth for mid-1992 was estimated to be 5.44 billion. the projection for the year 2000 was 6.17 billion, which was a 12% increase over 1992 figures. 8.34 billion was the expected population for 2025, and 12.2 billion for 2050, of which 88% would be in countries currently defined as developing. The difference between these projections and those previously published in the 1989-90 edition was minimal for more developed countries, and lower for less developed countries due to the impact of AIDS. Population concentration is currently 59% in Asia, 15% in Europe, 14% in America, 12% in Africa, and 1% in Oceania. Changes will occur such that Africa's population will double, Europe's will be halved, and Asia's will remain stable. The fastest growing region in Africa in East Africa, followed by West Africa and then North Africa in 1992. The lowest growth rates in 1992 are in Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Without China and India, the highest growth rates are found among low income countries. Upper income countries have only 10% of total world population. The population under 15 years of age is expected to decrease from 32% in 1992 to 25% in 2025; conversely, the elderly population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase from 6% in 1992 to 10% in 2025. Life expectancy is highest in Japan at 79 years and lowest in Guinea-Bissau at 39 years. The largest difference in life expectancy between men and women is in the Russian Federation at 10.5 years. There is low fertility, mortality, and slow growth in the Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova; moderate growth in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan; and mid to high fertility in the other republics.
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  13. 63
    100310

    More population policy needed, not less.

    Stolnitz GJ

    In: Population transition in south Asia, edited by Ashish Bose and M. K. Premi. Delhi, India, B. R. Publishing, 1992. 19-27.

    The author notes that, despite recent UN estimates of falling global population growth rates, "the realities in both the developing and developed regions point to increasing, not decreasing, demographic pressures on resources and productive capacities. Global and regional potentialities for attaining rising levels of living in the face of prospective increases in numbers appear to be diminishing, not expanding....[He finds that] population policy, both in the industrially advanced and developing regions, can no longer be regarded as a peripheral part of development programming efforts." (EXCERPT)
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  14. 64
    081435

    The UN long-range population projections: what they tell us.

    Haub C; Yinger N; Loffredo S

    Washington, D.C., Population Reference Bureau [PRB], International Programs, 1992 Dec. 22, [3] p.

    UN long range population projections are valuable as a source for a wide range of projections, for target setting, and as an information base for the policy process. The eventuality of mixed outcomes from different regions is expected. Medium projections could turn out to be too high or too low. China and India, as very populous countries, will determine the future world population total. Projections need to be continually re-estimated, because reproductive behavior changes in ways that can not be anticipated. The present period is marked by the fastest population growth ever experienced in history. Background on the first projections is given in addition to the current method of estimation by cohort components or survival rates from life tables by age, age specific birth rates, and migration by age. Projections are also available from the World Bank (since 1978) and the US Bureau of the Census (since 1986). UN projections have been available since 1951. Major gaffs have been made in the past, such as the well known error of the "missed" baby boom in the US. UN projections have fared better. Projection assumptions relate to classic demographic transition theory. Declines in the death rate are followed by declines in the birth rate, as the society develops. Preindustrial societies had high birth and death rates. The timing of the fertility decline varied between countries. The western model of fertility decline may not apply to developing countries. In developing countries, changes in birth and death rates have occurred within a much shorter period of time. Assumptions on how fast fertility may decline must be made on an individual country basis. Assumptions relate to when the country will reach replacement level and to the path of fertility decline. Mortality assumptions have less of an impact on projections. Immigration plays a major role and is dependent on countries' policies and refugee movements. The UN makes some assumptions; for instance, in the US and Canada there is expected to be a continuing net flow of immigrants, but UN projections assume international migration to be zero in the long run. The UN 1992 projections are different in that the assumption is not replacement level fertility but fertility levels which could be above or below replacement. 5 variants are offered which span a range projecting world population in 2050 from 6 to 21 billion.
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  15. 65
    074860

    World population projections, 1989-90 edition: short-and long-term estimates.

    Bulatao RA; Bos E; Stephens PW; Vu MT

    Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.

    The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
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  16. 66
    080426

    Population growth and its control.

    Notestein FW

    In: Overcoming world hunger, [compiled by] Columbia University. American Assembly. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, Prentice-Hall, 1969. 9-39.

    In 1969 in the less developed regions of the world, the gross reproduction rate was well above 2, while in the more developed regions it was well below 2. The high variant of the 1963 United Nations world population projections assumed that, after 1970 in the countries with moderately low fertility, the birth rates would be 25/1000 population compared to 20/1000 in lands with very low fertility. A birth rate of 32.6/1000 population for Mainland East Asia (dominated by China) and 43.0 for South Asia was predicted. The suggested average annual rates of global population growth between 1960 and 2000 ranged from a low of 1.5%, a medium value of 1.8% to the high value of 2.1%. From 3 billion in 1960, world population would rise to a low of 5.5 billion, a medium value of 6 billion, and a high value of 7 billion by 2000. THe projected growth for the less-developed regions was 2.1% as opposed to 1.0% even .8% in the more-developed regions IUDs, mainly the Lippes Loop. In 1969, at least 7 million women used then, Oral steroids became popular in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Britain, and their use was spreading in Europe and Latin America. In India more than 3.2 million sterilizations had been performed, and 2-3 million IUDs had been inserted. In Pakistan the rate of sterilizations was about 10,000 a month and that of IUD insertions over 60,000 a month. In South Korea and in Taiwan, more than 25% of the women of childbearing age were either sterilized or practicing modern contraception. In Taiwan, the birth rate was well over 40/1000 population in 1955 dropping to well below 30 by 1969. Similar low rates in Singapore and Hong Kong were clearly related to the growing prevalence and effectiveness of contraceptive practice. In South Korea,Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore active birth control programs rapidly reduced the birth rates.
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  17. 67
    079154

    Educational development: world and regional statistical trends and projections to 1985.

    UNESCO

    In: The population debate: dimensions and perspectives. Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974. Volume I. New York, New York, United Nations, 1975. 313-46. (Population Studies, No. 57; ST/ESA/SER.A/57)

    The school enrollment ratio is determined by dividing student enrollment at given educational levels by the student population size in appropriate age ranges which should be enrolled according to national regulations. Calculation and review of this ratio offers a quick view of the extent of educational participation in given countries or regions. Without allowing for future plans, intentions, or policy changes, this paper projects enrollment trends of youth aged 6-29 to 1985 based upon data reported for the period 1960-1970. Data were limited for many of the 24 United Nation regions considered, but severe lack of information precluded the incorporation of East Asia in the analysis. East Asia incorporates China, Hong Kong, Mongolia, and Macau. Ages were broken into 3 ranges of 6-11, 12-17, and 18-29 years. Marked differences exist between the more and less developed regions in the trend of enrollment in the youngest age grouping. Specifically, enrollment follows population growth in developed regions, while enrollment growth in developing countries is unrelated to population growth. Enrollments in the remaining 2 age groupings were indirectly projected by estimating the percentage of enrollment in a given grouping in a given year remaining in school 6 years later. These percentages were then extended linearly into the future. In general, rapid population growth in developing countries greatly strains educational systems at all levels. Disparities between developed and developing countries are likely to continue for quite some time. While developed countries will achieve almost universal enrollment for those aged 6-17 by 1975, developing countries would have to treble average annual enrollment increases realized in the 1960s to simply achieve universal enrollment for those aged 6-11 by 1985. Those aged 6-17 not enrolled in developing countries will decline from 58% in 1965 to 50% in 1985, but the absolute number of out-of-schoolers will increase by 53%. Finally, by 1985, developing countries will have 32% of those aged 6-29 enrolled compared to 59% of those in more developed regions. Lacking resources, most developing countries can hope to simply tread water with school enrollment in the face of rapidly expanding populations.
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  18. 68
    076548

    1991 ESCAP population data sheet.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Population Division

    Bangkok, Thailand, ESCAP, Population Division, 1991. [1] p.

    The 1991 Population Data Sheet produced by the UN Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) provides a large chart by country and region for Asia and the Pacific for the following variables: mid-1991 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, male life expectancy at birth, female life expectancy at birth, % aged 0-14 years, % aged 65 and over, dependency ratios, density, % urban, and population projection at 2010. 3 charts also display urban and rural population trends between 1980 and 2025, the crude birth and death rates and rate of natural increase by region, and dependency ratios for 27 countries.
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  19. 69
    091041

    The United Nations' long-range population projections.

    McNicoll G

    POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1992 Jun; 18(2):333-40, 394, 396.

    Population projections to 2150 have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations, based on the Division's 1990 assessment of world population. These projections are described and compared to earlier UN series and analogous projections published by the World Bank. In the medium variant, widely used as a 'best guess' of the demographic future, world population reaches 10 billion by 2050 but adds only another 1.5 billion over the 100 years following. Low and high variant totals, defined by long-run fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.5 lifetime births per woman, are 8 and 12.5 billion in 2050 and 4 and 28 billion in 2150. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
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  20. 70
    072825

    Preparing migration data for subnational population projections.

    Speare A

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. vii, 46 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/127)

    Methods pertaining to the preparation of migration data for subnational population projections as of 1992 are explained. A brief review of sources of data for migration projections (censuses, surveys, and registration data) reveals that the requirements are base period estimates of the level or rate of migration between regions, estimates of the age and sex distribution of migrants, and any indicators that show likely future trends. In a discussion of the measurement of the volume of migration from census date, data on residence at a fixed prior time, estimates based on previous place of residence and duration of residence, and estimates of net migration of census survival/ratio methods are relevant. Estimates of the distribution of migrants by age and sex are explained based on different age and sex data: on place of residence at a fixed prior date, on place of previous residence and duration of residence, on age distributions from surveys, and from registers. Also explained is the use of model migration schedules when there is little or no information about age. Baseline migration projections for future estimates which are reasonable and account for variable rates of migration by region are discussed. The objectives desired are sometimes contradictory in that using a long time frame in order to average out random or abnormal fluctuations conflicts with continuing recent nonrandom or unusual changes so that emergent trends will be projected; objectives are also to use the most recent data available which account for shifts in migration patterns and to ensure convergence of migration rates toward equilibrium at some future point. Alternative strategies are provided as well as adjustments to provide consistent results. Adjustments involve the projection of numbers of migrants rather than rates, the use of out-migrant data on destination to adjust in-migration, and the scaling of in-migration to equal out-migration. Recommendations for data collection are presented. Internal migration data are best served by census data which asks the question about place of residence at a fixed prior time preceding the census and with a time interval designation that is of interest for projections. Single year of age and prior year questions and 5 years before are desired due to the need for short-range projections and planning. The 5-year prior place of residence question must be available by current region of residence and age and sex. Specific examples of multiregional projections are included.
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  21. 71
    065732

    The sex and age distributions of population. The 1990 revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. viii, 391 p. (Population Studies No. 122; ST/ESA/SER.A/122)

    This statistical report includes the estimated and projected age distribution of the population based on high, medium, and low variants for 152 countries with populations greater than 300,000 between 1950 and 2025 in 5-year intervals. A world total as well as by continents and subregions are available along with the spatial groups; least developed countries, less developed regions (excluding China), the Economic Commission for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Pacific, Western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Grouped data reflect countries with populations both greater than and less than 300,000. This revision was begun in 1988 and completed in 1990 by the UN Population Division of the International Economic and Social Affairs Department in conjunction with other UN regional commissions and the Statistical Office. A discussion of methods and data used for these estimates, a summary of findings, and selected demographic indicators will be available in World Population Prospects, 1990, and in summary form in the UN World Population Chart, 1990. A magnetic tape and diskettes of these data are available on request for purchase.
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  22. 72
    071962

    Norway.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 222-5. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Norway's 1985 population of 4,142,000 is projected to grow to 4,261,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 20.1% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 21.1% were over the age of 60. 16.9% and 27.1% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 1.8 to -0.8 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 76.0 to 78.1 years, the crude death rate will increase from 10.7 to 12.2, while,e infant mortality will decline from 8.0 to 5.0. The fertility rate will rise over the period from 1.7 to 2.0, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 12.5 to 11.4. The 1977 contraceptive prevalence rate was 71.0, while the 1980 female mean age at 1st marriage was 24.0 years. Urban population will increase from 72.8% in 1985 to 79.9% overall by the year 2025. All of these levels and trends are considered acceptable by the government. Norway does not have an explicit population policy. A population committee was, however, created in 1981 to consider population and development, especially in the face of ongoing demographic aging. The government works to provide health for the population, maintain the level of immigration, and improve women's status. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  23. 73
    071961

    Nigeria.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 218-21. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Nigeria's 1985 population of 95,198,000 is projected to grow to 338,105,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 48.3% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 4.0% were over the age of 60. 38.8% and 4.6% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 33.3 to 22.7 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 48.5 to 64.5 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 17.1 to 6.8, while infant mortality will decline from 114.2 to 48.5. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 7.1 to 3.6, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 50.4 to 29.5. The 1981/2 contraceptive prevalence rate was 5.0, while the 1981/2 female mean age at 1st marriage was 18.7 years. Urban population will increase from 23.0% in 1985 to 53.0% overall by the year 2025. Immigration and emigration are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, fertility, and spatial distribution are not. Nigeria has an explicit population policy. It aims to reduce population growth, fertility, morbidity, mortality, and the rate of urbanization. Specific efforts to effect these changes include providing for family planning and maternal-child health, education, rural and urban development, enhanced women's status, and greater male responsibility. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  24. 74
    071960

    Niger.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 214-7. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Niger's 1985 population of 6,115,000 is projected to grow to 18,940,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 46.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 4.9% were over the age of 60. 38.0% and 4.8% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 28.1 to 20.3 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 42.5 to 58.5 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 22.9 to 9.4, while infant mortality will decline from 145.7 to 70.9. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 7.1 to 3.6, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 51.0 to 29.7. The 1959 female mean age at 1st marriage was 15.8 years. Urban population will increase from 16.2% in 1985 to 46.6% overall by the year 2025. Immigration and emigration are considered to be acceptable by the government, while population growth, morbidity, mortality, fertility, and spatial distribution are not. Niger does not have an explicit population policy. Efforts have, however, been taken to improve health care, education, food supply, overall living conditions, and spatial distribution. Rural areas receive particular attention. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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  25. 75
    071959

    Nicaragua.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: World population policies. Volume II. Gabon to Norway, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. New York, New York, United Nations, 1989. 210-3. (Population Studies No. 102/Add.1; ST/ESA/SER.A/102/Add.1)

    Nicaragua's 1985 population of 3,272,000 is projected to grow to 9,219,000 by the year 2025. In 1985, 46.7% of the population was aged 0-14 years, while 4.1% were over the age of 60. 31.1% and 7.8% are projected to be in these respective age groups by the year 2025. The rate of natural increase will have declined from 34.5 to 17.8 over the period. Life expectancy should increase from 59.8 to 72.6 years, the crude death rate will decrease from 9.7 to 5.1, while infant mortality will decline from 76.4 to 26.9. The fertility rate will decline over the period from 5.9 to 2.7, with a corresponding drop in the crude birth rate from 44.2 to 22.9. The 1981 contraceptive prevalence rate was 27.0, while the 1971 female mean age at 1st marriage was 20.2 years. Urban population will increase from 56.6% in 1985 to 77.9% overall by the year 2025. Population growth, fertility, and immigration are considered to be acceptable by the government, while morbidity, mortality, high emigration, and spatial distribution are not. Nicaragua does not have a explicit population policy. The government finds the country to be underpopulated, and therefore concentrates upon reducing morbidity, mortality, and urban migration, and adjusting spatial distribution. Population policy as it relates to development objectives is discussed, followed by consideration of specific policies adopted and measures taken to address above-mentioned problematic demographic indicators. The status of women and population data systems are also explored.
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