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POPULATION: AN ENGLISH SELECTION. 1996; 8:258-70.We...compare the UN projections made in 1994 to the previous set in 1992 and to the Blue Plan projections, for [Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey, the] six most populated [developing countries in the Mediterranean region]....We shall also consider more briefly the lesser populated countries. This will enable us to appreciate the changes that have occurred in the UN's perception of population growth in this region. (EXCERPT)
NEW YORK TIMES. 1996 Nov 17; 3.According to a UN survey covering 1990-1995, world population growth is 1.48%, significantly less than the 1.57% projected in the 1994 report. Fertility declined to an average of 2.96 children per woman; the projected figure was 3.1. The world's population could number 9.4 billion in 2050, nearly half a billion lower than the 1994 projection. World population now numbers 5.77 billion and will stabilize, sooner than expected, at 10.73 billion in 2200 (chart). Joseph Chamie, director of the UN Population Division, cites family planning programs of the 1960s and 1970s and recent programs improving women's status for creating a steady continuous fertility decline in every region. J. Brian Atwood, administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), called the gains heartening at a time when population and development assistance programs are being cut. International family planning program critic, Representative Christopher H. Smith (Republican, NJ), is concerned abortions will be funded. He believes that money would be better spent on improving children's lives and strengthening market economies to create better living standards and smaller families, and that Western family planning programs are culturally intrusive. Mr. Chamie responds that population declines are much slower if couples lack access to safe, culturally and religiously acceptable contraception. As seen in Bangladesh, Syria, and Turkey, where birth rates declined before living standards rose, socioeconomic growth is unnecessary to bring down fertility. Childbearing and marriage are being delayed, and people are being given the chance to choose better lives.
CONTRACEPTION. 1996 Jan; 53(1):1-7.In the year 2000, world population will exceed 6200 million and life expectancy will be over 68 years. The UN population projections for the coming 20 years after 1996 range from a low of 7100 million to a high of 7800 million. Between 1950 and 1992, in developing countries, life expectancy at birth increased by 29 years in China, by 24 years in India and Indonesia, by 21 years in Bangladesh, and by 16 years in Brazil. The gender difference in life expectancy is only 1 year in India, but 6 years in a number of developed countries. Corresponding increases in Australia were from 12.2 to 14.7 years for men and from 14.9 to 18.8 years for women. By the year 2025, the UN projects that the elderly (65 years and older) will constitute 10% of the population in Asia and more than 20% in North America and Europe, whereas 1.8% of the population of Asia, 4.6% of North America, and 6.4% of Europe will be very old (80 years and older). By the year 2030, there may be 1200 million postmenopausal women around the world, 76% of them in the developing countries. During the period 1990-2025 the elderly population of Sweden will increase by 33%, whereas that of Indonesia will increase by 414%. Between 2000 and 2100, the global population aged 15 years or younger will gradually decrease from 31.4% to 18.3%, while the population aged 65 and over will increase from 6.8% to 21.6%. The persistence of poverty in developing countries combined with aging poses a formidable challenge because the majority of old people receive little special support. The epidemiological dimension of aging embraces mortality and morbidity. Each year 39 million people die in the developing world mainly from infectious and parasitic diseases, noncommunicable and communicable diseases, and injuries. In the developed countries 11 million die primarily from cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms. In the developing countries noncommunicable diseases represent 87% of the disease burden resulting in increased isolation of the elderly. The ethical dilemma facing health care is poverty among the elderly.