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Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-East Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes.
POPULATION RESEARCH LEADS. 1991; (39):1-17.Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
ASIA-PACIFIC POPIN BULLETIN. 1991 Jun; 3(2):7-11.George Walmsley, UNFPA country director for the Philippines, discusses demographic and economic conditions in the Philippines, and present plans to revitalize the national population program after 20 years of only modest achievements. The Philippines is a rapidly growing country with much poverty, unemployment and underemployment, uneven population distribution, and a large, highly dependent segment of children and youths under age 15. Initial thrusts of the population program were in favor of fertility reduction, ultimately changing to adopt a perspective more attuned to promoting overall family welfare. Concurrent with this change also came a shift from a clinic-based to community-based approach. Fertility declines have nonetheless grown weaker over the past 8-10 years. A large gap exists between family planning knowledge and practice, with contraceptive prevalence rates declining from 45% in 1986 to 36% in 1988. Behind this lackluster performance are a lack of consistent political support, discontinuities in program implementation, a lack of coordination among participating agencies, and obstacles to program implementation at the field level. The present government considers the revitalization of this program a priority concern. Mr. Walmsley discusses UNFPA's definition of a priority country, and what that means for the Philippines in terms of resources nd future activities. He further responds to questions about the expected effect of the Catholic church upon program implementation and success, non-governmental organization involvement, the role of information and information systems in the program, the relationship between population, environment and sustainable development, and the status of women and its effect on population.
[Unpublished] . 10,  p.Based upon United Nations medium population projections, the population of developing countries will grow from 4,086 million in 1990, to 5,000 million by the year 2000. To meet this medium-level projection, 186 million contraceptive users must be added for a total 567 million in addition to increased contraceptive prevalence of 59% from 51%. This study estimates the number of contraceptive users, acceptors, and cost of contraceptive commodities needed to limit growth to this medium projection. Needs are estimated by country and method for 1990, 1995 and 2000, for medium, high, and low population projections. The number of contraceptive users required to reach replacement fertility is also calculated. Results are based upon the number of women aged 15-49, percent married, number married ages 15-49, and the proportion of couples using contraception. Estimation methodology is discussed in detail. Estimated users of respective methods in millions are 150 sterilizations, 333 IUD insertions, 663 injections, 7,589 cycles of pills, and 30,000 condoms. Estimated commodity costs will grow from $399 million in 1990 to $627 million in 2000, for a total $5.1 billion over the period. Pills will be the most expensive at $1.9 billion, followed by sterilizations at $1.4 billion, condoms $888 million, injectables $594 million, and IUDs $278 million. Estimated costs for commodities purchased in the U.S. show IUDs and condoms to be significantly more expensive, but pills as cheaper. With donors paying for approximately 25% of public sector commodity costs, developing country governments will need to pay $4.2 billion of total costs in the absence of increased commercial/private sector and donor support.