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  1. 1

    Social studies and population education. Book Two: man in his environment.

    University of Sierra Leone. Institute of Education

    Freetown, Sierra Leone, Ministry of Education, 1984. 80 p. (UNFPA/UNESCO Project SIL/76/POI)

    The National Programme in Social Studies in Sierra Leone has created this textbook in the social sciences for secondary school students. Unit 1, "Man's Origins, Development and Characteristics," presents the findings of archaeologists and anthropologists about the different periods of man's development. Man's mental development and population growth are also considered. Unit 2, "Man's Environment," discusses the physical and social environments of Sierra Leone, putting emphasis on the history of migrations into Sierra Leone and the effects of migration on population growth. Unit 3, "Man's Culture," deals with cultural traits related to marriage and family structure, different religions of the world, and traditional beliefs and population issues. Unit 4, "Population and Resources," covers population distribution and density and the effects of migration on resources. The unit also discusses land as a resource and the effects of the land tenure system, as well as farming systems, family size and the role of women in farming communities. Unit 5, "Communication in the Service of Man", focuses on modern means of communication, especially mass media. Unit 6, "Global Issues: Achievements and Problems," discusses the identification of global issues, such as colonialism, the refugee problem, urbanization, and the population problems of towns and cities. The unit describes 4 organizations that have been formed in response to problems such as these: the UN, the Red Cross, the International Labor Organization, and the Co-operative for American Relief.
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  2. 2


    United Nations. Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
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  3. 3

    [Recommendations of the Population World Plan of Action and of the United Nations Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development] Recomendaciones del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion y del Grupo de Expertos de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo.

    De Oliveira O

    In: Reunion Nacional sobre Distribucion de la Poblacion, Migracion y Desarrollo, Guadalajara, Jalisco, 11 de mayo de 1984, [compiled by] Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 21-31.

    Highlights are presented of the expert meeting on population distribution, migration, and development held in Hammamet, Tunisia, in March 1983 to prepare for the 1984 World Population Conference. Rafael Salas, Secretary General of the World Population Conference, indicated in the inaugural address of the meeting that changes in the past 10 years including the increasing importance of short-term movements, illegal migrations, and refugees would require international agreements for their resolution. In the area of internal migrations, Salas suggested that in addition to migration to metropolitan areas which continues to predominate, short-term movements of various kinds need to be considered in policy. Improvement in the quality of life of the urban poor is an urgent need. Leon Tabah, Adjunct Secretary General of the World Population Conference, pointed out that population distribution and migration had received insufficient attention in the 1975 World Population Conference, and that the World Population Plan of Action should be modified accordingly. Among the most important findings of the meeting were: 1) The Plan of Action overstressed the negative effects of urbanization and rural migration. Available evidence suggests that migration and urbanization are effects rather than causes of a larger process of unequal regional and sectorial development 2) The historical context of each country should be considered in research and planning regarding population movements. 3) Analyses of the determinants and consequences of migration were reexamined in light of their relationship to the processes of employment, capital accumulation, land tenure, technological change, ethnic and educational aspects, and family dynamics. 4) The need to consider interrelationships between urban rural areas in formulation of policy affecting population distribution was emphasized. 5) National development strategies and macroeconomic and sectoral policies usually have stronger spatial effects than measures specifically designed to influence population distribution, and should be examined to ensure compatability of goals. 6) Population distribution policies should not be viewed as ends in themselves but as measures to achieve larger goals such as reducing socioeconomic inequalities. 7) Multiple levels of analysis should be utilized for understanding the causes and consequences of population movements. 8) Programs of assistance should be organized for migrants and their families. 9) The human and labor rights of migrants and nonmigrants should be considered in policy formulation. 10) Policies designed to improve living and working conditions of women are urgently needed.
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  4. 4

    Population change and development in the ECWA region

    Caldwell P; Caldwell JC

    In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)

    This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
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  5. 5

    [World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.

    Vallin J

    Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.

    The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
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  6. 6

    Population and international economic relations.

    United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD]

    In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 383-402. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)

    Following an exploration of the interrelationships between population, development, and international economic relations, this paper discusses the trade requirements of a growing population under the International Development Strategy. The discussion concludes with some reflections concerning the nature of the structural adjustments in the world economy necessary to create an international environment supportive of the development needs of the developing countries and conducive to a sustained growth of the world economy. Because of the close link between production and international economic relations, any change in the rate of growth of population has implications for trading patterns and the flow of capital. Population also directly affects the level of consumption and hence, import demand for consumer goods and for raw materials and the capital equipment necessary to produce goods for final consumption. Evidence exists in support of the view that the savings rate could be influenced by demographic trends. Also the role of changing age structure of the population should not be discounted. The experience of the fastest growing developing countries reflects the strong links between development, industrialization, and international trade. Their liberal trading policies and outward orientations have contributed significantly to their success. Given the projected population growth for developing countries of 2.6% in the 1980s and 2.3% in the 1990s, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth target would be 4.4% in the 1980s and 4.7% in the 1990s. Achievement of the ambitious growth targets set by the International Development Strategy would only make a modest beginning towards narrowing the relative income gap between the developed and developing countries by 2000. Accelerating the growth of developing countries would require a faster accumulation of capital or an increase in the investment to GDP ratio from 26.7% in 1980 to 28.8% in 1990 and 27.6% in 2000. A table shows that the resulting external balance in the year 2000 would be 4.8% of the GDP of developing countries as a whole. The developed market economies will need to improve substantially their savings performance in order to make available financial resources needed by developing economies.
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  7. 7

    Report of the International Conference on Population, 1984.

    United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 101 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements E/CONF.76/19)

    The purpose of this Conference was to appraise the implementation of the World Population Plan of Action, adopted by consensus at Bucharest, 10 years ago. Full validity of the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action was reaffirmed and a set of recommendations for future implementation was put forth. The Conference confirmed that the principal aim of social, economic and human development, of which population goals are integral parts, is to improve the standards of living and quality of life of people. Population problems, e.g. economic difficulties, resource mobilization, population growth, high mortality and morbidity, migration, tremendous demographic differences between developed and developing countries, high fertility, inadequate family planning, rapid urbanization, continue. The interrelationship between economic and social development was stressed. Recommendations for action encompass the following areas: socioeconomic development, the environment and population, the role and status of women, development of population policies and promotion of knowledge and police. Recommendations for implementation concern the role of national governments, the role of international cooperation and monitoring, review and appraisal. Included in the section on population goals and policies are population growth, morbidity and mortality, reproduction and the family, population distribution and internal migration, international migration and population structure. The same basic goal of improving stansards of living and quality of life to pormote peace and security is refelected by the recommendations.
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  8. 8

    Country statement: Ethiopia.

    [Unpublished] 1984. Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 21 p.

    This discussion of Ethiopia focuses on: sources of demographic data; population size and age-sex distribution; urbanization; fertility; marital status of the population; mortality and health; rate of natural increase; economic activity and labor force activity rates; food production; education; population policies and programs; and population in development planning. As of 1983, Ethiopia's population was estimated at 33.7 million. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy. Ethiopia has not yet conducted a population census, however, the 1st population and housing census is planned for 1984. The population is young with children under 15 years of age constituting 45.4% of the total population; 3.5% of the population are aged 65 years and older. The degree of urbanization is very low while the urban growth rate is very high. Most of the country is rural with only 15% of the population living in localities of 2000 or more inhabitants. In 1980-81 the crude birthrate was 46.9/1000. The total fertility rate was 6.9. Of those aged 15 years and older, 69.2% of males and 71.3% of females are married. According to the 1980-81 Demographic Survey the estimates of the levels of mortality were a crude death rate of 18.4/1000 and an infant mortality rate of 144/1000. At this time 45% of the population have access to health services. It is anticipated that 80% of the population will be covered by health care services in 10 years time. Ethiopia is increasing at a very rapid rate of natural increase; the 1980 estimation was 2.9% per annum. Despite the rich endowments in agricultural potential, Ethiopia is not self-sufficient in food production and reamins a net importer of grain. Enrollment at various levels of education is expanding rapidly. There is no official population policy. Financial assistance received from the UN Fund for Population Activities and the UN International Children's Emergency Fund for population programs is shown.
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  9. 9

    [Examination and evaluation of the World Population Plan of Action. An analysis of population growth in Latin America] Examen y evaluacion del Plan de Accion Mundial sobre Poblacion. Analisis de crecimiento demografico en America Latina

    Lima Otero J; Garcia Quinones R

    Havana, Cuba, Universidad de la Habana, Facultad de Economia, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM], 1984. 49 p. (Publicaciones de CEDEM: Coleccion Investigaciones no. 63)

    Socioeconomic and demographic changes that have occurred in Latin America since the 1974 World Population Conference are reviewed using data from published U.N. sources. Factors affecting Latin American population growth and urbanization and determinants of Cuban population growth since 1970 are considered. (ANNOTATION)
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  10. 10

    Reflections on population.

    Salas RM

    New York, Pergamon, 1984. 240 p.

    This book, a sequel to "International Population Assistance: The First Decade," characterizes the work of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) with the developing countries up to 1984, relating these experiences to the issues before the 1984 International Conference on Population. The 1st chapter provides an overview of the significant developments in population up to the 1984 International Conference on Population. The next 7 chapters discuss the following main issues before the Conference and generally reflect the arrangement of the document to be brought before the Conference concerning recommendations for further implementation of the World Population Plan of Action: fertility, status of women and the family; morbidity and mortality; population distribution, internal and international migration; population growth and structure; promotion of knowledge and implementation of policies and programs; international cooperation and the role of UNFPA; and the year 2000 and beyond. Within each of these chapters, excerpts have been arranged in an analytic order, with the aim of facilitating the flow of arguments presented. Appendices contain the 5 "State of World Population Reports" issued from 1980-84 and 7 Rafael M. Salas statements which, primarily due to their focus on the population issues of particular importance to the major regions of the globe, are reproduced in their entirety. This volume reflects the process of population policymaking of the UNFPA with the developing countries in support of their population programs in the past 15 years. These policies were sanctioned and validated, both nationally by the countries themselves and globally by UN deliberative bodies and conferences. The experience of UNFPA in policy formulation indicates that an effective population policy must have its proper time perspective and must be scientifically determined in its component elements, normative and applicable at different levels, multisectoral in its emphasis, and measurable in its impact and consequenes.
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  11. 11

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  12. 12

    A critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to United Nations methods.

    Speare Jr, A

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 75-80. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    The changing character of urban growth in the latter part of this century will require a modification of the procedures used for uban projections. Definitions of urban areas need to be revised to move away from the concept of densely settled localities and to take into account forms of settlement in which "urban" populations are dispersed over wide areas. Since these newer, more dispersed, urban settlements present Governments with different problems from those presented by large densely-settled cities, and small towns present another set of problems, it would make sense to identify and make projections for 3 classes of urban settlement: central cities, peripheral urban areas and small towns. It is also argued that urbanization in the future may not proceed at the same rate as observed in the past and that some countries may remain primarily rural while other highly urbanized countries may experience declines in their levels of urbanization. While these results will be affected by the choice of urban definition, under any definition allowance ought to be made for a range of future patterns of urbanization. Computational methods have become relatively inexpensive and many countries are now providing much better base data for projections than was available a decade ago. These methods and data should be used to prepare alternative sets of urban-rural projections which take full account of the range of patterns of urbanization which may occur in the future. Finally, many nations have population redistribution policies which include measures to encourage or discourage the growth of particular cities or classes or urban settlement. While experience has shown that the specific numerical goals specified in such policies are rarely achieved and that growth often continues in areas where policies exist to discourage it, these policies often have some impact and should not be neglected. For countries which have fairly explicit redistribution policies, it would make sense to prepare 1 set of projections based on these policies. This set of projections would provide an illustration of how urbanization would depart from that expected from past trends if the policy objectives were realized and would aid in the discussion of these policy objectives.
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  13. 13

    The urban and city population projections of the United Nations: data, definitions and methods.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 67-74. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    This paper draws attention to the large variation in national practices to determine localities and to classify urban populations which has serious implicatons for any projections of urban and city populations, no matter what specific methodology is being used. There are many criteria by whichlocalities can be defined as urban: population size, population density, % labor force in non-agriucltural activities, function of the city, some other unspecified "urban" characteristics or a combination of several of these criteria. Population size is deemed the preferable criterion for designating localities as urban. This criterion is consistent with one of the classic definitions of urbanization: "Urbanization is a process of population concenttration. It proceeds in 2 ways: the multiplication of points of concentration and the increase in size of individual concentration." Population size is also the most widely available criteria for localities. Procedures used by the UN to estimate and project urban and city population are given. The UN utilizes a measure of urbanization called the urban-rural ratio (URR), which is defined as the ratio of the urban to the rural population for a country at a given point in time. While attempts are being made to provide as complete a coverage of cities as possible, no standard guidelines have so far been used to systematically include all cities that will reach 100,000 population during the projection period. It is hoped that detailed discussion of the data and the conceptual and procedural problems will lead users of the estimates and projections to carefully consult the respective sources and definitions when they use these results for comparative purposes.
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  14. 14

    Population: the Mexico conference and the future.

    Salas RM

    [Unpublished] 1984. 13 p. (UNFPA/ICP/84/E/2500)

    The complex relationship between population and development continues to be of critical concern for all countries of the World. World population is expected to increase to 6.1 billion by the year 2000 and stabilize at 10.5 billion by the end of the next century. This depends, however, on maintenance of the current momentum to reduce fertility. Although government programs to reduce fertility are available in countries covering 80% of the population of the developing world, levels of desired fertility in developing countries are higher than the fertility level necessary to attain eventual population stability (2.1 children/woman). The increase in the number of metropolitan centers and urbanization of the population have been striking features of the past decade. Changes in the volume, direction, and characteristics of international migration flows have raised concerns about human rights and the welfare aspects of these population movements. A significant feature of world demography has been the clearer emergence of intraregional similarities and interregional differences in population issues. Although the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action will remain valid in the decades ahead, national population goals must be systematically reassessed. Countries should seek consistency between national and global goals and policies, take a longterm perspective, be aware of the interrelationships of the specific recommendations, be conscious of changing perceptions of population issues, and be alert to the primacy of the individual and his rights. The link between population and global security, and the role of population in shaping political behavior, point to the need for international cooperation. A more satisfying future can be brought about only through determined, rational, and humane population policies.
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  15. 15

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
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  16. 16

    Latin America and the Caribbean and the International Conference on Population, statement made at the Twentieth Session of the Economic Commission for Latin America, Lima, Peru, 4 April, 1984.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1984]. 8 p. (Speech Series No. 110)

    This report examines 4 sectors of population activities (with particular reference to Latin America and the Caribbean) which will form the basis for the agenda of the International Conference on Population in August, 1984: 1) Fertility and the family--consequences of high birth rates, in particular in Central and Tropical South America are being felt in the rapid expansion of the regional labor force and in the marked rise in the number of elderly in the region. Genuine social and economic development can greatly accelerate both fertility and mortality transition, while at the same time facilitating a more balanced distribution of population and rural development. At the same time, population activities fully integrated with development can be expected to play a complementary role. 2 such activities are especially significant in that regard--improving the status and condition of women and strengthening integrated programs of maternal and child health and family planning. 2) Health and mortality--A great deal has already been done to reduce infant mortality through better health care and disease prevention, but among the poorest groups, malnutrition still weakens many children and exposes greater danger from diseases. Recent research reveals that chronic malnutrition is more commonly a result of poverty than of an absolute scarcity of food. This points towards the need for equity in income distribution in achieving a balance between population and food resources. 3) Distribution and migration--It is a commonplace in this region that population growth expresses itself largely as urban growth. Suggestions for relieving the strain include integrating urban changes with other forms of development, encouraging the growth of medium-sized urban centers and reduction of rural-urban and regional inequalities. 4) Population, resources, environment and development--population policies need to be successfully integrated with other aspects of development planning, which should include the need for regional food security, energy policies, and environmental protection
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  17. 17

    National growth, national strength, statement made at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, 8 January, 1984.

    Salas RM

    New York, N.Y., UNFPA, [1984]. 8 p. (Speech Series No. 105)

    The upsurge of population growth in Africa comes at a time when world growth rates, and the rates for all other regions of the world, have begun to decline. But growth itself is only one aspect of concern with population. Another and most important issue is the severe imbalance between resources and population which now exists in many African countries as the result of low levels of development and lagging utilization of natural resources, particularly for food production. Population growth is accompanied by explosive urban growth in amny centers, while international migration is also increasing, partly voluntary, partly under political or economic pressure. A new emphasis on population questions in Africa invites consideration of new policy directions and reassessment of some old ones. It will be convenient to deal with these under the 4 subjects which will form the basis for the agenda at this year's International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August, 1984. These are mortality and health; fertility and the family; population distribution and migration and population; and resources, environment and development. Each of these topics are considered with particular reference to the African experience.
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