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  1. 1

    [Papers presented at the First Study Director's Meeting on Comparative Study on Demographic-Economic Interrelationship for Selected ESCAP Countries, 29 October-2 November 1984, Bangkok, Thailand]

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    [Unpublished, 1984]. [82] p.

    This study group report 1) investigates quantitatively the process of population change and socioeconomic development to identify policy recommendations for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and 2) examines the application of the "systems approach" and econometric technics for population and development planning. These country-specific studies will help to clarify the interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic factors in the development process of each participating country and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) region in general. The meeting 1) reviewed major demographic and economic issues in each participating country, 2) reviewed extant work on model building in each country, and 3) outlined a preliminary system design. Several economic-demographic models are discussed. The participants recommended that 1) the models focus of similar issues such as migration and income distribution and 2) countries should adopt, whenever possible, a similar modeling methodology. Participants agreed that models should be based, where possible, on a base-year Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This poses no problems in Thailand or Malaysia as SAMs are already available for these countries. However, no SAM is currently available for the Philippines. Participants further recommended that the 3 models could be improved by greater collaboration among study directors during model formulation and estimation. Participants also expressed concern about the size of the computing budget and thought that models could be improved by an increased budget for computer time.
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  2. 2

    Familial roles and fertility.

    Oppong C

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and familiy. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 321-51. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)

    This paper presents a conceptual model indicating some of the established and hypothesized links between a number of labor laws and policies, in particular International Labor Organization (ILO) conventions, divisions of labor and resources by sex and age, familial roles and fertility. Brielfy outlined are the content and goals of some of the ILO conventions and programms that have a bearing on the conditions widely thought to be related to fertility decline. These include improved status of relatively deprive groups, such as women and children, and individual access to training, employment and incomes. These changes are viewed in terms of their potential impact on family relations, including changing parental roles and costs of bearing and raising children in view of the impact of diminishing child labor, and the increasing availability of social security benefits. Another aspect is sexual equality, in particular the impact of equality in the occupational sphere on equality in the domestic sphere and the consequent effects on reproduction. In addition, the impacts of social and spatial mobility are indicated and the potential effects on role conflicts, individualism and lower fertility. A thrust of the paper is to emphasize the critical intervening nature of changing familial roles, which have been neglected, both in labor reports and related activities as well as in the documentation and policy-making related to fertility. Micro-evidence from a variety of cultural contexts shows how changes and differences in allocations of tasks and resources and status benefits between kin, parents and offspring, wives and husbands are associated with changes and differences in fertility-related aspirations and patterns of regulation. Finally, the discussion serves to underline the pervasive and profound nature of the potential impacts of divisions of labor and employment policies on fertility levels, demonstrating that changes in familial roles and relations are central to this process of linkage. Thus, the need is made apparent for more knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of change in this area at the micro-level and in a variety of cultural areas, if government policies and programms are to achieve their specific goals with respect both to employment and demographic policies.
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  3. 3

    New currents and emerging emphasis in research and policy.

    Page HJ

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 107-23. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)

    The Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Family was assinged the identification of those areas in current scientific knowledge and concerns regarding fertility and family that were of greatest salience for policy formulation and implementation. Particular attention was to be paid to shifts that had occurred since the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest. This article is mainly an overview of the work of the Group and is organized around 3 main themes: 1) advances in knowledge of fertility levels and trends; 2) advances in understanding the relations between development, fertility and the family; 3)theoretical advances and practical experience with regard to policy formulation and implementation. 1) Knowledge of existing patterns of fertility and their composition has increased markedly over the last decade as a result of more data, better estimation techniques for measuring fertility levels and of new approaches to studying the reporductive process and family formation (e.g., the development of analytical models that allow quantification of the role of the various proximate determinants of fertility). A far-reaching realization is that proximate determinants of fertility may respond to the same set of factors but their responses may exhibit different elasticities. 2) In the understanding the relations between development, fertility and family, 2 main areas of concern can be identified. He level and type of analyses to date, especially the empirical ones, have been carried out at the micro-level, focusing on the individual decision maker. Although such models are advances over earlier ones developed largely from classical demographic transition theory, yet, their use has not been entirely satisfying because of the common failure to adequately specify the concepts involved and/or to substitute for them broad socioeconomic indicators in empirical work. In addition, institutional supports for and interrelations with particular patterns of fertility and family have been neglected, resulting, theoretical and practical impoverishment. The 2nd area of concern is the identification of those dimensions of family structure and function that are most intimately interlocked with modernization and fertility change. The discussion focuses on the interplay between modernization, the relationship between the generations, and between the sexes. Finally, there is an increasing awareness that a number of aspirations regarding fertility and family may be contradictory with respect to general advances in policcy formulation and implementation. 4 important trends can be discerned: 1) assessment of the potential utility and effectiveness of policy and programmatic efforts; 2) trends in the definition of desirable goals; 3) new directions in terms of the institutiona means for achieving these goals; and 4) shifts in the perception of the individual's freedom of choice.
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  4. 4

    Population projections: methodology of the United Nations.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 85 p. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    Upon a recommendation of the Population Commission, at its 20th session in January 1979, the Secretary General of the United Nations convened an Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections from 16 to 19 November 1981 at the UN Headquarters to discuss the methodology used for demographic projections and to consider the relationship of demographic projections to development change and population policies. The expert Group was also requested to provide guidelines and make recommendations to the Secretary-General on how to incorporate demographic changes into the methodology to be used for the next round of world population projections to be prepared by the UN Population Division in collaboration with the regional commissions. The papers prepared by members of the Expert Group as well as those prepared by the Population Division are reproduced in this publication. The recommendations of the Expert Group and a summary of the papers and discussion are also included. The topics addressed in this publication are: 1) problems in making population projections; 2) integration of socioeconomic factors in population projections; 3) population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies; 4) current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections; 5) expectations and progressive analysis in fertility prediction; 6) use of the intermediate factors in fertility projections; 7) family planning and population projections; 8) progress of work on a fertility simulation model for population projections at the UN Secretariat; 9) mortality trends and prospects in developing countries: some "best data" indications; 10) the urban and city population projections of the UN: data, definitions and methods; 11) a critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to UN methods; and 12) projections in Europe: some problems.
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