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[Statistical country yearbook: members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, 1984] Statisticheskii ezhegodnik stran--chlenov Soveta Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi, 1984.
Moscow, USSR, Finansy i Statistika, 1984. 456 p.This yearbook presents general statistical information for member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. A section on population (pp. 7-14) includes data on area and population; population according to the latest census; average annual population; birth, death, and natural increase rates; infant mortality; average life expectancy; marriages and divorces; urban and rural population; and population distribution by social group. (ANNOTATION)
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
Action by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974: monitoring of population trends and policies.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1984 Dec. 10. 15 p. (E/CN.9/1984/2/Add.1)Pursuant to the recommendation of the World Population Plan of Action adopted in 1974, which was reaffirmed by the International Conference on Population in 1984, the United Nations has been undertaking a biennial review of population trends and policies. At the 22nd session of the Population Commission, held in January 1984, the Commission requested the Secretary-General to prepare an addendum to the concise report on monitoring of population trends and policies for the 23rd session, bearing in mind the relatively short time span since the preparation of the last such report. The purpose of the present document is to provide the Population Commission with such information to facilitate its deliberation on the agenda item. Analyses show that the gradual slow-down of global population growth is still holding with the present rate estimated at 1.65%/year, down from 2% during the 1960s. Declines have occurred in both the developed and the developing countries. Regional diversity of population trends have been so large that an overall global assessment seems almost irrelevant for policy consideration at national levels. The future population growth rate is expected to decline slower than it did in the past 15 years unless population policies change significantly. During the 1980-85 period the working age population (15-64 years) in the developing countries is estimated to have increased, on the average, at an annual rate of 2.8%, the elderly population (60 and over) at 3% and women in the reproductive ages (15-49 years) at 2.9%. The most urgent problem for many developing countries is perhaps the continuing very rapid increase of the working age population. The aging of the population, which bears significant policy implications, is among the most salient features of population change in the world, except for Africa. Fertility rates in most developed countries continue to fluctuate at low levels. No current data on developing country rates are available. An overall improvement in mortality in most countries is noted. A high rate of urban population growth in developing countries is a tremendous problem facing these countries. International migration, social and economic implications, demographic perceptions and governmental policies are summarized. National sovereignty, human rights, cultural values and peace are stressed as important factors in population policies. Women's status is discussed as playing a role in population change.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 67-74. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)This paper draws attention to the large variation in national practices to determine localities and to classify urban populations which has serious implicatons for any projections of urban and city populations, no matter what specific methodology is being used. There are many criteria by whichlocalities can be defined as urban: population size, population density, % labor force in non-agriucltural activities, function of the city, some other unspecified "urban" characteristics or a combination of several of these criteria. Population size is deemed the preferable criterion for designating localities as urban. This criterion is consistent with one of the classic definitions of urbanization: "Urbanization is a process of population concenttration. It proceeds in 2 ways: the multiplication of points of concentration and the increase in size of individual concentration." Population size is also the most widely available criteria for localities. Procedures used by the UN to estimate and project urban and city population are given. The UN utilizes a measure of urbanization called the urban-rural ratio (URR), which is defined as the ratio of the urban to the rural population for a country at a given point in time. While attempts are being made to provide as complete a coverage of cities as possible, no standard guidelines have so far been used to systematically include all cities that will reach 100,000 population during the projection period. It is hoped that detailed discussion of the data and the conceptual and procedural problems will lead users of the estimates and projections to carefully consult the respective sources and definitions when they use these results for comparative purposes.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 17-20. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)Estimates of future population are calculated and interpreted in 3 different modes, each with its distinctive relation to the formulation of policy. Any account of the relation of forecasts to policy that overlooks these distinctions, risks confusion, if not self-contradiction. Briefly defined, the 3 modes are: 1) the concrete or unconditional forecast--that simply asserts what the future population will be; 2) the self-annulling forecast--primarily intended as a warning of what will happen unless something is done to prevent it; and 3) the difference or effect that a policy under consideration will have, that is, a sensitivity analysis. The unconditional forecast can be checked after the event by noting how close it came to the performance; this kind of checking has little meaning for either the self-annulling forecast or the sensitivity analysis. Impact is crucial in the 2nd mode: a projection cannot annul itself if no one pays attention to it. The United Nations projections as published are useful in the 1st and 2nd modes, but not directly for sensitivity analysis, which must be designed with the specific proposed policy in view.