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Report on the evaluation of SEN/77/P04: population/socio-spatial/regional planning (population/amenagement du territoire).
New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. xiii, 34,  p.The Senegal population/socio-spatial/regional planning project illustrates a truly integrated approach to population and development planning. The evaluation Mission concluded overall that the project's achievements are positive. The project's main accomplishments have been the establishment of a sophisticated population data bank, the preparation of national and regional population projections, an analysis of migration movements, and the production of related maps and tables using primarily 2ndary data sources. The technical quality and detail of the work undertaken, as well as its potential usefulness, were high. However, the Mission also found that various constraints specific to this project have considerably limited its achievements. These include inadequately formulated project objectives and planned activities, poorly defined conceptual framework, low absorptive capacity of the implementing agency, and severe United Nations Fund for Population Activities budget reductions. The value of the work was found to be lessened because the data assembled have not yet been systematically integrated into other relevant data banks, properly disseminated or utilized. The Mission recommended measures which will help conserve the valuable data bank and other results of the project and will assist in the transfer to nationals of the knowledge and skills to update and utilize the data bank. Limited outside assistance--financial and technical--is needed for some of the recommended measures.
New York, New York, United Nations 1984. 45 p. (Official Records, 1984, Supplement No. 2 E/1984/12 E./CN. 9/1984/9)The report of the 22nd session of the United Nations Population Commission includes the opening statements by the Under Secretary General for International Economic and Social Affairs, the Under Secretary General for Technical Cooperation for Development, the Director of the Population Division, and the Assistant Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. These are followed by a description of the actions taken by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974. A report on the progress of ongoing work in the field of population summarized for the following categories: 1) world demographic analysis; 2) demographic projections; 3) population policies; 4) population and development; 5) monitoring of population trends and policies; 6) factors affecting patterns of reproduction; 7) dissemination of population information; 8) technical cooperation; and 9) demograpahic statistics. Programs of work in the field of population for the biennium 1984-1985 and medium-term plan for the period 1984-1989 are provided for each of the 9 preceding categories as well as a consideration of draft proposals and a report on the continuity of work. The report concludes with the organization, attendance, and agenda of the session.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 17-20. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)Estimates of future population are calculated and interpreted in 3 different modes, each with its distinctive relation to the formulation of policy. Any account of the relation of forecasts to policy that overlooks these distinctions, risks confusion, if not self-contradiction. Briefly defined, the 3 modes are: 1) the concrete or unconditional forecast--that simply asserts what the future population will be; 2) the self-annulling forecast--primarily intended as a warning of what will happen unless something is done to prevent it; and 3) the difference or effect that a policy under consideration will have, that is, a sensitivity analysis. The unconditional forecast can be checked after the event by noting how close it came to the performance; this kind of checking has little meaning for either the self-annulling forecast or the sensitivity analysis. Impact is crucial in the 2nd mode: a projection cannot annul itself if no one pays attention to it. The United Nations projections as published are useful in the 1st and 2nd modes, but not directly for sensitivity analysis, which must be designed with the specific proposed policy in view.