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Statement by the leader of the Ethiopian Delegation to the International Conference on Population, Mexico City, 6-13 August, 1984.
[Unpublished] 1984 Aug. Presented at the International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August 6-13, 1984. 6 p.Since Ethiopia's land reform act of 1975 and the nationalization of its major industrial and financial institutions, the government has organized society, has raised the level of literacy from 7% to 63%, and has conducted a 1st population and housing census. Now, in a 10-Year Perspective Plan, population policy is identified as a major issue, reflecting the country's concern over its present high rate of population growth--2.9%/year--and its infant mortality rate of 144/1000 live births, with life expectancy at only 46 years. Health care stratgy, including safe drinking water, is another top government priority, as is improving the status of women. Family planning services are offered, and Ethiopia holds that international assistance should reflect national sovereignty rather than being conditional to any particular family planning policy.
[Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
[Statistical country yearbook: members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, 1984] Statisticheskii ezhegodnik stran--chlenov Soveta Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi, 1984.
Moscow, USSR, Finansy i Statistika, 1984. 456 p.This yearbook presents general statistical information for member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. A section on population (pp. 7-14) includes data on area and population; population according to the latest census; average annual population; birth, death, and natural increase rates; infant mortality; average life expectancy; marriages and divorces; urban and rural population; and population distribution by social group. (ANNOTATION)
In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
[World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.
Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
[Unpublished] 1984 Aug. Presented at the International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August 6-13, 1984. 8 p.The Philippines government has for 14 years pursued a policy of fertility reduction based on non-coercive community-based family planning programs. The country has programs to develop agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and minerals, its rural areas being given top priority. The population growth rate is expected to drop from the 2.8% rate of 1970-75 to 2.2% in 1987, with replacement-level fertility by the year 2000.. Life expectancy and infant mortality figures are also improving. Women have traditionally enjoyed high status in the Philippines, but further access to educational and employment opportunities is being advocated. A cooperative venture among Southeast Asian nations has formulated and implemented 19 projects to meet the challenge of rapid population growth. Gratitude is expressed for the help of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), along with a plea to conference participants to strengthen that organziation as well as the activities of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), of which there are 138 in the Philippines.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 60-6. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)This paper offers suggestions for guiding the next projection's exercise at the United Nations in light of third world life tables which, although severely limited, are believed to be relatively reliable. Of prime importance is the suggestion that expectation of life at birth in a number of less developed areas has begun to overtake and surpass the lower levels of such measures among the populations of developed countries. Although this is the 1st such occurrence on record, it is not likely to be reversed. A major implication of these patterns is that the causal linkages which have historically connected levels and patterns of socioeconomic development with those of mortality have become greatly attenuated. It is safe to say that major new causal mechanisms for reducing mortality have come into play which demographers have yet to comprehend adequately for purposes of projection. Another suggestion is to increase attention to the specific status and performance of national public-sector health programs (including water supply and sanitation) key factors affecting the onset and scale of mortality downtrends during the postwar decades. In addition, increasingly close attention needs to be paid to political disturbances, affecting health-care programs financing and associated delivery systems. With few exceptions, differences between female and male life expectancies at birth have been rising in the sample areas under review, implying that the gains over time for females have been higher than those for males. This directional pattern at both ages is remarkably similar to what has been found to hold with notable consistency among developed countries since 1920. Its prevalence suggests a bench-mark for checing the projected longevity differentials between males and females in the next UN exercise; at a minimum, these should be compared with past directions and magnitudes of change. Added or new attention should be given to comparisons between developed country and less developed country mortality measures; to how such measures vary by age at given points of time and shift by age over time; to sex differentials of both mortality levels and changes; and to the rapidly growing stocks of information becoming available on leading correlates of deaths, survival and morbidity rates. Such attention will enhance the quality, relevance and reliability of the future work of the UN on population projections.
[Unpublished] . Presented at the Second African Population Conference, Arusha, Tanzania, January 9-13, 1984. 3 p.Liberia's population characteristics and dynamics are briefly decribed, the current status of population data collection is noted, and the government's population policies and programs are summarized. National censuses were conducted in 1962 and 1974 with assistance from the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), and a 3rd census is planned for February 1984. National population growth surveys were conducted in 1969 and 1972, and demographic growth surveys were undertaken in 1978 and 1979. An administrative structure for registering births and deaths was recently created, however, most births occurring outside of hospitals and clinics will not be covered. In 1973, a demographic unit was established at the University of Liberia to develop the manpower needed to upgrade population data collection procedures. According to data collected in the 1974 censuses and subsequent surveys, the birthrate is 48.6, the death rate is 17.3, and the gross reproductive rate is 3.2. the total fertility rate is 6.7, and the infant mortality rate is 110.4. Life expectancy at birth is 49.1 for males and 52.5 for females. there are 97.3 males/100 females. The proprotion of the male population under 15 years of age is 47.9%, and the respective proportion for females is 46.9%. The total population is 1.8 million. Although Liberia does not have a population policy, the government recently established a National Population Committee to formulate a national policy and to coordinate population acitivities. 3.5% of Liberia's women of childbearing age currently use family planning services provided either by the International Planned Parenthood Federation or by the government with the assistance of UNFPA and the US Agency for International Development.