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[Reconciling censal and inter-censal data and determination of the population base] Conciliacion censal y determinacion de la poblacion base.
In: Metodos para proyecciones demograficas [compiled by] United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]. San Jose, Costa Rica, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, 1984 Nov. 13-42. (Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] Series E, No. 1003)This work describes procedures used by the Latin American Demographic Center (CELADE) for establishing a base population for projection in quinquennial age groups by means of evaluation of population censuses and reconciliation of demographic data for 2 or more intercensal periods. Demographic reconciliation refers to the array of procedures through which the degree of coverage of successive censuses is evaluated; age and sex distributions resulting from incomplete coverage, differential omission, and poor age reporting are corrected; the demographic dynamics of intercensal periods are made coherent with estimates of mortality, fertility, and migration from all available sources; and a base population for population projection is established. There are no fixed rules for evaluation and reconciliation of census data, because the history and quality of data collection in each country are unique. The compensatory equation, in which 2 or more population censuses are reconciled in regard to fertility, mortality, and international migration in intermediate years usually in terms of age cohorts, is an indispensable tool for demographers in developing countries. The need to add children born in the years between censuses and the different types of errors typifying different age groups means that the process of census reconciliation should be carried out separately for at least 3 age groups: children under 5, the 5-9 year cohort, and those over 10 years of age. The age group 0-4 is often the most seriously underestimated. Because the age group 5-9 years is often the best enumerated in Latin American population censuses, it can serve as the basis for correction of the population aged 0-4. The data required include the population aged 5-9 in single years in the last census, the deaths in children under 10 by year of birth and age at death in single years, and the annual number of births in the 10 years preceding the last census. Data from Panama illustrate that the results of this technique are not always acceptable, in which case correction of the 0-4 cohort may be accomplished by means of correction of births and deaths using indirect methods. Corrections for the 5-9 cohort, if required, can be made in a similar manner to that for the youngest group. Evaluation and correction of errors of omission and misreporting of age of the population over 10 is the most difficult because data sources are most often inadequate, these age groups have the greatest age and sex differentials and poorest age reporting, and are most likely to be effected by emigration. All available data should be utilized to produce a group of alternative estimates for each cohort based on diverse basic data and assumptions about such variables as the sex ratios for age agroups. The most likely values must then be selected or calculated. The process by which census results from 1950-80 were used to estimate the base population for a projection by components in Panama illustrates the procedure used by CELADE.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 67-74. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)This paper draws attention to the large variation in national practices to determine localities and to classify urban populations which has serious implicatons for any projections of urban and city populations, no matter what specific methodology is being used. There are many criteria by whichlocalities can be defined as urban: population size, population density, % labor force in non-agriucltural activities, function of the city, some other unspecified "urban" characteristics or a combination of several of these criteria. Population size is deemed the preferable criterion for designating localities as urban. This criterion is consistent with one of the classic definitions of urbanization: "Urbanization is a process of population concenttration. It proceeds in 2 ways: the multiplication of points of concentration and the increase in size of individual concentration." Population size is also the most widely available criteria for localities. Procedures used by the UN to estimate and project urban and city population are given. The UN utilizes a measure of urbanization called the urban-rural ratio (URR), which is defined as the ratio of the urban to the rural population for a country at a given point in time. While attempts are being made to provide as complete a coverage of cities as possible, no standard guidelines have so far been used to systematically include all cities that will reach 100,000 population during the projection period. It is hoped that detailed discussion of the data and the conceptual and procedural problems will lead users of the estimates and projections to carefully consult the respective sources and definitions when they use these results for comparative purposes.