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[Reconciling censal and inter-censal data and determination of the population base] Conciliacion censal y determinacion de la poblacion base.
In: Metodos para proyecciones demograficas [compiled by] United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]. San Jose, Costa Rica, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, 1984 Nov. 13-42. (Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] Series E, No. 1003)This work describes procedures used by the Latin American Demographic Center (CELADE) for establishing a base population for projection in quinquennial age groups by means of evaluation of population censuses and reconciliation of demographic data for 2 or more intercensal periods. Demographic reconciliation refers to the array of procedures through which the degree of coverage of successive censuses is evaluated; age and sex distributions resulting from incomplete coverage, differential omission, and poor age reporting are corrected; the demographic dynamics of intercensal periods are made coherent with estimates of mortality, fertility, and migration from all available sources; and a base population for population projection is established. There are no fixed rules for evaluation and reconciliation of census data, because the history and quality of data collection in each country are unique. The compensatory equation, in which 2 or more population censuses are reconciled in regard to fertility, mortality, and international migration in intermediate years usually in terms of age cohorts, is an indispensable tool for demographers in developing countries. The need to add children born in the years between censuses and the different types of errors typifying different age groups means that the process of census reconciliation should be carried out separately for at least 3 age groups: children under 5, the 5-9 year cohort, and those over 10 years of age. The age group 0-4 is often the most seriously underestimated. Because the age group 5-9 years is often the best enumerated in Latin American population censuses, it can serve as the basis for correction of the population aged 0-4. The data required include the population aged 5-9 in single years in the last census, the deaths in children under 10 by year of birth and age at death in single years, and the annual number of births in the 10 years preceding the last census. Data from Panama illustrate that the results of this technique are not always acceptable, in which case correction of the 0-4 cohort may be accomplished by means of correction of births and deaths using indirect methods. Corrections for the 5-9 cohort, if required, can be made in a similar manner to that for the youngest group. Evaluation and correction of errors of omission and misreporting of age of the population over 10 is the most difficult because data sources are most often inadequate, these age groups have the greatest age and sex differentials and poorest age reporting, and are most likely to be effected by emigration. All available data should be utilized to produce a group of alternative estimates for each cohort based on diverse basic data and assumptions about such variables as the sex ratios for age agroups. The most likely values must then be selected or calculated. The process by which census results from 1950-80 were used to estimate the base population for a projection by components in Panama illustrates the procedure used by CELADE.