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  1. 1
    021441
    Peer Reviewed

    A perspective on long-term population growth.

    Demeny PG

    Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.

    This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
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  2. 2
    267328

    The United Nations and the politics of population, 1960-74.

    Patton CG

    Ann Arbor, Michigan, University Microfilms International, 1984. [505] p.

    One form of international authority proposed by David Mitrany was that of an advisory and coordinating one where both the performance of a task and the means for its accomplishment remain mainly under national control. Mitrany's theoretical framework and its organizational analogue within the UN and national political arenas account for the emergence of a new UN population policy to cope with the rapid global population growth between 1960 and 1974. The most prestigious outcome of this policy was the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), whose centralized contributions came primarily from the US, Japanese, Swedish, and some other west European governments. Its aim is to assist governments in the development of national family planning programs and in related demographic and family planning training and research programs. UNFPA grants went to UN-system agencies, governments, and private organizations. Recipients include India, Pakistan, Egypt, Malaysia, Kenya, Nigeria and Mexico. A mew ideology emerged to support the concept of an interventionist policy to lower the birth rate. That ideology include the responsibility of each government for its own population; an emphasis on social framework for parental choices about family size; and a legitimate role for international assistance. How the UNFPA came into existence is a political process involving government delegations and officials, UN Secretarist staff, and representatives of selected religious and population transnational organizations. It is also a Laswellian social process model of 7 decision-outcomes marking the significant population events and interactions underlying the creation of UNFPA. 6 UN resolutions and 2 decisions by the Secretary-General denominate these decision outcomes. 2 analytic approaches account for these decision outcomes--the Parsonian concept of organized levels (institutional, managerial, and technical) in conjunction with the Laswellian concepts of centralization/decentralization and concentration/decontration, and the concept of coalitions, (legislative and programming). This expanded UN population policy process reveals the interconnectedness of elites and groups in a global network centered at UFPA. (author's modified)
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  3. 3
    024924

    Current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
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