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Ambio. 1984; 13(3):142-7.The Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities discussed population, resource, and environmental problems and issues which will be considered at the 1985 International Conference on Population. Although the global, annual population growth rate declined from 2.02%-1.67% between 1974-84, we can not be complacent. The decline in the growth rate was unevenly distributed. For example, most of the decline in Asia was accounted for by the decline in China's population growth rate. The world population will not stabilize until the end of the 21st century. Currently, the population is increasing by 78 million each year, and by the year 2000, the annual increase will be 89 million. There is a general world consensus that rapid population growth and the growth of massive urban centers is undesirable, that government should formulate and vigorously pursue population policies, that population must be integrated into development, and that population is a relevant factor in socioeconomic development. A wide range of issues will be dealt with at the 1985 International Conference on Population. There is still a high unmet demand for family planning in many countries, and contraceptive accessibility and delivery systems need to be improved. More attention must be focused on the impact of fertility on the family and the status of women. There is a growing imbalance between population and resources. Population growth and increased income levels heighten the demand for goods. The demand for goods is straining the world's resources base and contributing toward the degradation of the environment. Spatial distribution patterns frequently impede socioeconomic development. In response to the UN 5th Population Inquiry, 77 noted they were dissatisfied with some aspect of spatial distribution in their country. Latin American countries were concerned with urban primacy, the urban and rural distribution, and regional settlements. Asian and African countries were concerned primarily with the need to reduce rural to urban migration. Many changes are occuring in the area of international migration. Countries which in the past were the traditional recipients of permanent migrants, e.g., the US, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, have, in recent years, reduced the number of migrants they are willing to admit. The flow of migrant workers between countries is increasing and flow patterns are changing. Problems associated with illegal migration and with refugee movements must be addressed by the international community. It is now recognized that demographic variables should be integrated into development planning. This can best be achieved through the development of models such as the BACHUE models and the BARILOCHE model.
Studies in Family Planning. 1984 Nov-Dec; 15(6/1):296-302.The international Conference on Population, held in Mexico City in August 1984, met to review past developments and to make recommendations for future implementation of the World Population Plan of Action. Despite the several ifferences of opinion, the degree of controversy was minor for an intergovernmental meeting of this size. The 147 government delegations at the Conference reached overall agreement on recommendations for future international commitment to expanding population efforts in the future. This review examines the recommendations of the Mexico Conference with regard to health, family planning, women in development, research, and realted issues. The total 88 recommendations wre intended to reaffirm and refine the World Population Plan of Action adopted in Bucharest in 1974, and to strengthen the Plan for the next decade. Substantial improvement in development was noted including fertility and mortality declines, improvements in school enrollement and literacy rates, as well as access to health services. Economic trends, however, were much less encouraging. While the global rate of population growth has declined slightly since 1974, world population has increased by 770 million during the decade, with 90% of that increase in the developing countries. Part of the controversy at the Conference focused on the remarkable change of position by the US delegation, which largely reversed the policies expressed at Bucharest. The US delegation stated that population was a neutral issue in development, that development is the primary requirement in achieving fertility decline. Several recommendations emphasized the need to integrate population and development planning, and called for increased national and international efforts toward the eradication of mass hunger, illiteracy, and unemployment; achievement of adaquate health and nutrition levels; and improvement in women's status. The need for futher development of management, training, information, education and communication was recognized. A clear call to strenghten global efforts in population policies and programs emerged.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 101 p. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements E/CONF.76/19)The purpose of this Conference was to appraise the implementation of the World Population Plan of Action, adopted by consensus at Bucharest, 10 years ago. Full validity of the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action was reaffirmed and a set of recommendations for future implementation was put forth. The Conference confirmed that the principal aim of social, economic and human development, of which population goals are integral parts, is to improve the standards of living and quality of life of people. Population problems, e.g. economic difficulties, resource mobilization, population growth, high mortality and morbidity, migration, tremendous demographic differences between developed and developing countries, high fertility, inadequate family planning, rapid urbanization, continue. The interrelationship between economic and social development was stressed. Recommendations for action encompass the following areas: socioeconomic development, the environment and population, the role and status of women, development of population policies and promotion of knowledge and police. Recommendations for implementation concern the role of national governments, the role of international cooperation and monitoring, review and appraisal. Included in the section on population goals and policies are population growth, morbidity and mortality, reproduction and the family, population distribution and internal migration, international migration and population structure. The same basic goal of improving stansards of living and quality of life to pormote peace and security is refelected by the recommendations.
New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
[Unpublished] 1984. 13 p. (UNFPA/ICP/84/E/2500)The complex relationship between population and development continues to be of critical concern for all countries of the World. World population is expected to increase to 6.1 billion by the year 2000 and stabilize at 10.5 billion by the end of the next century. This depends, however, on maintenance of the current momentum to reduce fertility. Although government programs to reduce fertility are available in countries covering 80% of the population of the developing world, levels of desired fertility in developing countries are higher than the fertility level necessary to attain eventual population stability (2.1 children/woman). The increase in the number of metropolitan centers and urbanization of the population have been striking features of the past decade. Changes in the volume, direction, and characteristics of international migration flows have raised concerns about human rights and the welfare aspects of these population movements. A significant feature of world demography has been the clearer emergence of intraregional similarities and interregional differences in population issues. Although the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action will remain valid in the decades ahead, national population goals must be systematically reassessed. Countries should seek consistency between national and global goals and policies, take a longterm perspective, be aware of the interrelationships of the specific recommendations, be conscious of changing perceptions of population issues, and be alert to the primacy of the individual and his rights. The link between population and global security, and the role of population in shaping political behavior, point to the need for international cooperation. A more satisfying future can be brought about only through determined, rational, and humane population policies.
Draper Fund Report. 1984 Jun; (13):1-3.The UN International Conference on Population to be held in Mexico City in August 1984, responding to an unprecedented upsurge of interest in population over the last decade, offers developed and developing countries the opportunity to assess current and likely future population trends, to comment on programs and progress during the past 10 years, and to determine desirable future directions. More developing countries are reporting diminished declining fertility and family size in countries of widely varying ethnic, social, and economic makeup. Although it is likely that the future will bring a steadily declining rate of world population growth, culminating in stability, present trends indicate that it will take more than a century for world population to stabilize. Meanwhile growth continues. The developing world's annual average birthrate from1975-80 was twice as high as the developed world's. Also there are large areas, much of Latin America and most of Africa, where growth rates continue very high. Other areas, such as parts of Asia, do not follow the general declining trend despite trend despite, in some instances, a long history of population programs. Interest in population programs and demand for resources to support them are growing, but the population dimension is sometimes unrecognized in development planning. The experience of the last decade illustrates that population assistance can make a uniquely valuable contribution to national development when it is given in accord with national policies, is appropriate to local conditions and needs, and is delivered where it can make the most impact. Substantial evidence exists that women in the developing world undertand the risks of repeated pregrancy and would like to take steps to reduce them. It is evident that providers of family planning services are not yet sufficiently responsive to women's own perceptions of their needs and that the social and economic conditions which make family planning a reasonable option do not yet exist. Influxes of immigrants, short and long term, legal and illegal, create particular problems for receiving countries. It is important for sending countries to know what effect the absence of their nationals is having on the domestic economy and essential for receiving countries to consider the protection of the human rights of international migrants, including settlers, workers, undocumented migrants, and refugees. It is a particular responsibility of the industrialized nations to make careful use of limited resources and to ensure that their comsumption contributes to the overall balance of the environment. In most developing countries infectious and parasitic disease remains the primary cause of death, particularly among the young. Much of this toll is preventable. The International Conference on Population provides an opportunity to establish in broad terms the conditions and directions of future cooperation.
New York, Foreign Policy Association, 1984. 160 p.This expanded voters' guide to important foreign policy issues facing the US is intended to provide voters, information they need to take part in the national foreign policy debate and reach their own informed conclusions. The approach is nonpartisan and impartial and the style is telegraphic. Each of the 18 topics includes a list of significant questions, a presentation of essential background, an outline of policy choices and the pros and cons of each, and a brief bibliography. The book covers 5 major themes: leadership, national security, economic and social issues, critical regions, and the UN. The chapters cover: 1) president, congress, and foreign policy; 2) the arms race and arms control; 3) defense budget and major weapons systems; 4) nuclear proliferation; 5) jobs and international trade; 6) oil and energy; 7) the international debt crisis; 8) immigration and refugees; 9) Soviet Union; 10) the Atlantic alliance; 11) Lebanon, the Arabs, and Israel; 12) the Iran-Iraq war; 13) Central America; 14) Japan; 15) China and Taiwan; 16) South Africa and Namibia; 17) Third World: population, food, and development; and 18) the US and the UN.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
Algunas reflexiones sobre temas de poblacion antes de la Conferencia Internacional de Poblacion. Some population issues before the International Conference on population, statement made at El Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico, 6 March 1984.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 33 p. (Speech Series No. 108)Significant progress has been made in the last decade in understanding and responding to population issues in the areas of fertility, family planning, mortality, morbidity and health. This report considers these issues in the following contexts: moderation of population growth; population, resources and the environment; population distribution; internal migration; international migration; and integration of population with development. All these issues will be considered at the International Conference on Population, scheduled for August, 1984. The relevance of the Mexican experience in these areas is also weighed. 2 comments by Mexican representatives to the Conferences are included in this report.
International consultation of NGOs on population issues in preparation of the 1984 United Nations International Conference on Population: report of the consultation.
[Unpublished] . 83 p.196 individuals from 44 countries, representing national and international non-governmental organizations, bilateral agencies and intergovernmental organizations attended the consultation. The purposes of the consultation were: 1) to provide an overview of the contributions of non-governmental organizations to the implementation of the World Population Plan of Action through a wide range of population and population related programs carried out since the Plan was adopted in 1974; 2) to explore what non-governmental organizations believe needs to be done in the world population field during the balance of the century; 3) to prepare for participation in the January 1984 Conference Preparatory Committee meeting and in the Conference itself to be held in August 1984; and 4) to provide suggestions for activities of national affiliates relative to the 1984 Conference. This report provides a synopsis of the plenary sessions and their recommendations. Addresses by numerous individuals covered the following topics: the creative role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the population field; vital contributions of NGO's to the implementation of the world population plan of action; the family; population distribution and migration; population, resources, environment and international economic crisis; mortality and health; and NGO prospects for the implementation of the world population plan of action.