Important: The POPLINE website will retire on September 1, 2019. Click here to read about the transition.

Your search found 15 Results

  1. 1
    024920

    Recommendations.

    United Nations. Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
    Add to my documents.
  2. 2
    040872

    Expanded Programme of Immunization Eastern Mediterranean Region. A report for the EPI Global Advisory Group Meeting, Alexandria, 21-25 October 1984.

    Sulieman O

    [Unpublished] 1984. 10, [8] p. (EPI/GAG/84/WP.7.a)

    The strategy adopted by the Members States of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) to achieve the objective of the promotion of the Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) through primary health care (PHC) concentrates on strengthening synergistic integration of EPI with other services. Activities have been planned and implemented or are being implemented at the Regional Office and at the country level. 21 countries of the Region now have either a full-time or part-time manager or an EPI focal point. This is a considerable development, for in 1982 there were EPI managers in 9 countries. Except for 3 countries, all national EPI managers/focal points have received senior level training in EPI. At delivery points, vaccination is performed to a large extent by multipurpose health workers, but full-time vaccinators are available in about 6 countries. All field workers have received training at their respective regional levels. Limited financial resources continue to be 1 of the primary constraints of the program in the Region. Plans to resolve this problem include: counteracting wastage factors; close collaboration with the UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and other international agencies at the country level to standardize approaches and avoid overlap; tapping regional and international voluntary agencies to increase their contributions; and increased use of associate experts, UN volunteers, and national technical staff. The overall information system is to some extent weak and suffers from irregularity and a lack of continuity. Regular reports are received from 9 countries which have World Health Organization staff. Repeated requests from other countries yield incomplete and at times contradicting data. Research efforts are directed towards operational areas, and research in strategies, integration, community, and surveillance areas is being encouraged.
    Add to my documents.
  3. 3
    037161

    [National Conference on Fertility and Family, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oaxaca, April 13, 1984] Reunion Nacional sobre Fecundidad y Familia, Oaxaca de Juarez, Oax., a 13 de abril de 1984.

    Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]

    Mexico City, Mexico, CONAPO, 1984. 228 p.

    Proceedings of a national conferences on the family and fertility held in April 1984 as part of Mexico's preparation for the August 1984 World Population Conference are presented. 2 opening addresses outline the background and objectives of the conference, while the 1st paper details recommendations of a 1983 meeting on fertility and the family held in New Delhi. The main body of the report presents 2 conference papers and commentary. The 1st paper, on fertility, contraception, and family planning, discusses fertility policies; levels and trends of fertility in Mexico from 1900 to 1970 and since 1970; socioeconomic and geographic fertility differentials; the relationship of mortality and fertility; contraception and the role of intermediate variables; the history and achievements of family planning activities of the private and public sectors in Mexico; and the relationship between contraception, fertility, and family planning. The 2nd paper, on the family as a sociodemographic unit and subject of population policies, discusses the World Population Plan of Action and current sociodemographic policies in Mexico; the family as a sociodemographic unit, including the implications of formal demography for the study of family phenomena, the dynamic sociodemographic composition of the family unit, and the family as a mediating unit for internal and external social actions; and steps in development of a possible population policy in which families would be considered an active part, including ideologic views of the family as a passive object of policy and possible mobilization strategies for families in population policies. The conference as a whole concluded by reaffirming the guiding principles of Mexico's population policy, including the right of couples to decide the number and spacing of their children, the fundamental objective of the population policy of elevating the socioeconomic and cultural level of the population, the view of population policy as an essential element of development policy, and the right of women to full participation. Greater efforts were believed to be necessary in such priority areas as integration of family planning programs with development planning and population policy, creation of methodologies for the analysis of families in their social contexts, development and application of contraceptive methodologies, promotion of male participation in family planning, coordination of federal and state family planning programs, and creation of sociodemographic information systems to ensure availability of more complete date on families in specific population sectors. The principles of the World Population Plan of Action were also reaffirmed.
    Add to my documents.
  4. 4
    034500

    Implementation of action area four ("Meeting the Needs of Young People") of the IPPF three year plan 1985-87.

    International Planned Parenthood Federation [IPPF]. Evaluation and Management Audit Department

    [Unpublished] 1984 Dec. 11, [9] p. (PC/3.85/4)

    The objective of this paper is to assist the Central Council of the International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) in monitoring the implementation of the IPPF 1985-87 plan. Baseline information is provided on all 1985 youth projects proposed by grant receiving family planning associations (FPAs) in their 1985-87 Three Year Plans. Detailed analysis was confined to the 67 FPA 1985-87 Three Year Plans received at the International Office by September 1984. This number covers most of the Associations in the region; the exception is the Western Hemisphere where several of their plans arrived in London too late to be included in the analysis. For nongrant receiving Associations, summary information was extracted from regional bureau sources and a list of youth activities in these countries is shown in an appendix. A summary of 1985 youth activities supported by the IPPF Secretariat at both regional and international level is shown in a 2nd appendix. To provide the necessary background to an analysis of 1985 youth projects, all strategies proposed by FPAs in their 1985-87 Plans were examined. A total of 360 strategies were classified according to their main purpose. A further classification into 14 categories was then used to demonstrate their relationship to the IPPFs 1985-87 Action Areas. Information about the purpose of youth projects, the types of activity carried out, and whether the project was new or ongoing was also extracted from the FPA Plans. For the 67 FPAs whose Three Year Plans were reviewed, a total of 360 strategies were proposed for the 1985-87 period. The largest number of strategies were concerned with providing family planning services; male involvement was the least mentioned. A total of 34 FPAs specifically mentioned young people in their list of strategies. A further 17 FPAs proposed youth projects but did not as yet devote a special youth strategy for them. Taking into account all regions, a total of 51 Associations in 1985 intended to spend almost $2 million implementing 169 youth projects. The projects fell into 4 main types: family life and population education; training; increasing awareness of issues affecting young people; and family planning services. The number of new youth projects in 1985 varies from region to region, the highest number being in Africa. FPAs still have much to do to meet the new objective of involving parents and the community in preparing young people for responsible sexuality and family life.
    Add to my documents.
  5. 5
    268449

    Report on the evaluation of UNFPA assistance to the strengthening of the civil registration and vital statistics system in Sierra Leone: project SIL/79/P03.

    Kannisto V; Mehta DC; McWilliam J

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. x, 28 p.

    While Sierra Leone has a long tradition in registering births and deaths, dating back to the mid-1880s, registration has remained low. In order to improve registration coverage, the original project formulated in 1979 by the government included 3 immediate objectives; the strengthening of the civil registration system in a model area, the experimentation with field organization procedures most suitable for the registration system in the country, and the production of estimates of demographic variables in the model area and in the rest of the country. In the Tripartite Project Review held in 1981, 2 additional objectives were added to the project; the unification of the civil registration laws, including the provision of a uniform and universal legislation for the entire country, and the reorganization and training of the registration hierarchy. While the strategy to use a model area for the development was a sound one, without the law being enacted, new forms and registers could not be printed and thus few of the planned activities could take place. Of the 5 immediate objectives of the project, only one has been achieved--the passage of the Act of 1983 which provides the legal framework for registration to take place nationwide under the new system. Little progress has been made in the achievement of the 4 remaining objectives. The Evaluation Mission made recommendations concerning the need to reformulate the extension document early in 1985, taking into account the results of the Evaluation Mission, the concentration of government action on registration in the non-model areas, and thereafter the gradual expansion of registration to adjacent areas where more complete coverage is possible.
    Add to my documents.
  6. 6
    268444

    Report on the evaluation of UNFPA-sponsored country programme in Democratic Yemen, 1979-1984 and role of women in it.

    El-Sherbiny A; El-Khodary M; Molyneux M; Zouain G; Frieiro L

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Apr. xiii, 101 p.

    The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA)-sponsored Country Program was the 1st comprehensive effort in the field of population in Democratic Yemen, following earlier sub-sectoral interventions which benefitted from UNFPA assistance. This evaluation covers 1) the country program as such, focusing on the results achieved in terms of building national capacity for formulating and implementing population policies and programs; 2) the 7 component projects, one in data collection and analysis, a maternal child health/family planning project, and 5 in population education for different audiences; and 3) the women's dimension of the program. At the end of the 4th year of implementation, little had been done by the Country Program in terms of institution building and population policy. The program's achievements were hindered by factors such as an extreme shortage of national qualified staff, training facilities, poor program design, insufficient technical leadership and support, as well as unrealistic objectives. The 7 component projects were plagued with similar problems and made only modest acheivements. The Evaluation Mission expressed the view that long term international expertise to serve all projects would have been advisable as well as long term training abroad for a few people who could become leaders/advisors/administrators. In evaluating the role of women, the Mission found that women had participated in the implementation of all the projects evaluated but were mainly to be found in junior positions. The program as a whole contained a substantial portion of women among its direct beneficiaries comprising those who had been trained, employed and targeted as recipients of the services of the projects, although this varied considerably between projects. In general, the Mission was of the view that in the future a country program document should be prepared specifying the long term and immediate objectives for the population program as a whole.
    Add to my documents.
  7. 7
    268443

    Report on the evaluation of SEN/77/P04: population/socio-spatial/regional planning (population/amenagement du territoire).

    Fabri MY; Pool DI; Simonen M

    New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. xiii, 34, [7] p.

    The Senegal population/socio-spatial/regional planning project illustrates a truly integrated approach to population and development planning. The evaluation Mission concluded overall that the project's achievements are positive. The project's main accomplishments have been the establishment of a sophisticated population data bank, the preparation of national and regional population projections, an analysis of migration movements, and the production of related maps and tables using primarily 2ndary data sources. The technical quality and detail of the work undertaken, as well as its potential usefulness, were high. However, the Mission also found that various constraints specific to this project have considerably limited its achievements. These include inadequately formulated project objectives and planned activities, poorly defined conceptual framework, low absorptive capacity of the implementing agency, and severe United Nations Fund for Population Activities budget reductions. The value of the work was found to be lessened because the data assembled have not yet been systematically integrated into other relevant data banks, properly disseminated or utilized. The Mission recommended measures which will help conserve the valuable data bank and other results of the project and will assist in the transfer to nationals of the knowledge and skills to update and utilize the data bank. Limited outside assistance--financial and technical--is needed for some of the recommended measures.
    Add to my documents.
  8. 8
    031976

    Ghana: report of Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance.

    United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 1984 Jul. vii, 59 p. (Report No. 68)

    This report of a Mission visit to Ghana from May 4-25, 1981 contains data highlights; a summary of findings; Mission recommendations regarding population and development policies, population data collection and analysis, maternal and child health and family planning, population education and communication programs, and women and development; and information on the following: the national setting; population features and trends (population size, growth rate, and distribution and population dynamics); population policy, planning, and policy-related research; basic data collection and anaylsis; maternal and child health and family planning (general health status, structure and organization of health services, maternal and child health and family planning activities, and family planning services in the private sector); population education and communication programs; women, youth, and development; and external assistance in population. Ghana gained independence in 1957. The country showed early promise of rapid development. Although well-endowed with natural and human resources, Ghana now suffers from food scarcity, inadequate infrastructure and services, inflation, inequities in income distribution, unemployment, and underemployment. Per capita gross national product (GNP) was $400 in 1981; between 1960-81 the average annual growth of GNP was -1.1%. A high rate of natural increase of the population has compounded development problems by intensifying demands for food, consumer goods, and social services while simultaneously increasing the constraints on productivity. The population, estimated at 13 million in mid-1984, is growing at a rate of 3.25% per annum. Immigration and emigration have contributed to changes in the size and composition of the population. Post-independence development policies favored the urban areas, encouraging a steady rural-to-urban shift in the population. At the same time, worsening socioeconomic conditions spurred the emigration of professional, managerial, and technical personnel and skilled workers. Ghana was the 1st sub-Saharan African nation to establish an official population policy. Since the formulation of the policy in 1969, successive governments have remained committed to its emphasis on fertility reduction while increasing attention to the problems of mortality and morbidity and rural/urban migration. Recognizing the need to intensify the commitment to population policies, the Mission recommends support for a program to further the awareness of policy makers of the relationship between population trends and their areas of responsibility. The Mission recommends the creation of a special permanent population committee and the strengthening of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning's Manpower division. The Mission also makes the following recommendations: the provision of training, technical assistance, and data processing facilities to ensure the timely provision of demographic data for socioeconomic planning; data collected in the pilot program of vital registration be evaluated before the system is expanded; the complete integration of maternal and child health and family planning and general health services within the primary health care system; and improvement in women's access to resources such as education, training, and agricultural inputs.
    Add to my documents.
  9. 9
    030884

    Technical co-operation in the field of mortality and health policy.

    United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development

    In: Mortality and health policy. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Mortality and Health Policy, Rome, 30 May to 3 June 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 270-88. (International Conference on Population, 1984; ST/ESA/SER.A/91)

    This paper reviews the technical cooperation efforts undertaken by the United Nations Department of Technical Cooperation for Development (DTCD) to help combat the high mortality levels in developing countries and to evolve policies in response to the World Population Plan of Action. Although the transfer of medical technology and the provision of drugs and other medical supplies remain important means of controlling death and disease, there is growing recognition of the need to develop national skills to deal with mortality, to maintain a continuous record of mortality and morbidity levels and their response to ameliorative programs, and to analyze the interrelationships between demographic, health, and socioeconomic variables. DTCD has focused on data collection and analysis, the integration of research findings into population policy formulation, and training and skill development to facilitate self-reliance. However, the lack of regular mechanisms for coordinating the activities of the various United Nations agencies that play a role in in technical cooperation in the areas of mortality and health policy has been a serious limitation. Another problem has been the dearth of tested alternative techniques for conducting simple health surveys whose results could be used in planning. Closer cooperation between United Nations agencies in this field is urged. It is also important that the recent reassignment of a low priority to data collection and analysis on the part of the United Nations Development Program be reversed. Unless data collection, analysis, and evaluation are reassigned a high priority, planners will be forced to depend on subjective judgments to evolve mortality policies. Finally, technical cooperation activities that aim to integrate mortality and morbidity control into population policies must be responsive to human rights.
    Add to my documents.
  10. 10
    031024

    Qualitative content analysis: a Burkeian perspective.

    Starosta WJ

    In: Methods of intercultural communications research, edited by William B. Gudykunst [and] Young Yun Kim. Beverly Hills, California, Sage Publications, 1984. 185-94. (International and Intercultural Communication Annual, Vol. VIII)

    This chapter weds the traditions of rhetorical analysis to those of content analysis in the study of international organization pronouncements, that is, it relates a research perspective, explores possible extensions of that perspective, applies that perspective to intercultural communication, and critiques that application. Like Kenneth Burke, the author finds strength in paradoxes. Content analysis translates frequency of occurrence of certain symbols into summary judgments and comparisons of content of the discourse. By marking off units of time or space, it tallies the nature and types of symbols or classes of symbols per unit, prior to estimating or extrapolating the results to spaces or periods not directly observed. The concerns of the content analyst focus on the choice of a unit, the development and clear description of categories of symbols or themes to be quantified, the assurance that coders will intersubjectively agree on assignment of symbols to categories, and the ascertainment of direction for the materials counted. Content analysis is a means of counting and judging some matter based upon statistical central tendencies, yet the question remains as to which features of meaning are quantifiable. The suspicion that, more often than not, things of greater importance will be stated ina communique in direct proportion to their importance, is countered many times in cultural practice. Cultural indirection, ritual, cultural hierarchy, cultural "non sequiturs," or like variables weaken the tie between quantity and quality. Rhetoricians and humanists tend to be concerned with quality of communicative acts more than quantity. Kenneth Burke is an exception to this rule. He argues in "Philosophy of Literary Form" the need for measures of central tendency to disclose important concepts on the mind of a communicator. This analysis is extended from the study of a writer to a speaker, from a speaker to a set of speakers who face the same stimulus, to the definition of an outlook for an international organization, to the application of that organizational outlook to take to task a disrespectful member state. The progression, pairing, or contrasting of terms by a speaker disclose the "cornerstone terms" of the speaker's motivation. Presumably, the calculation of cornerstone points for persons suggests such points for groups or organizations of affiliation by that person; and the comparison of such points between groups and organizations will disclose the calculus for entire cultures. As Burke's symbolic analysis technique effectively discloses motivations ("factors") of the communicator, this holds out the hope that the tenets of a given culture could be disclosed through the analysis of cultural materials.
    Add to my documents.
  11. 11
    267640

    The use of indicators of financial resources in the health sector. L'emploi des indicateurs de ressources financieres dans le secteur de la sante.

    Parker DA

    World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales. 1984; 37(4):450-62.

    This article provides an overview of the application of financial resource indicators in health. The focus is on indicators at the country level, although in certain instances related sub-national indicators are considered as well. 1st the different categories of financial resource indicators are described. The international experience in data collection, and problems of data availability and comparability are reviewed. Although the points addressed are relevant to all countries, the discussion is most applicable to the developing world where health information is limited. Particular attention is given to the design adn use of financial resource indicators in monitoring progress towards the goal of health for all. Finally, the steps that may be taken to increase the contribution of financial resource indicators to the health development process are discussed. Viewed economically, the health sector consists of production and consumption of services which have relatively direct influence on population health status. The different types of resources may be linked to their respective prices to show the financial flows that operate within the health system. The sources and uses of funds are identified. 3 types of financial resource indicators can be identified: health within the national economy, the provision of funds from primary sources and the functional and programmatic uses of funds. The 1st type is concerned with the aggregate availability of funds within the national economy and the fraction of those funds which are allocated to health. The 2nd component relates to the origins of the funds which make up the total health expenditure, under the broad headings of public, private and external sources of health finance. The 3rd type refers to the variety of used to which funds from these sources are put (expressed in terms of function e.g. salaries), program type (e.g. primary health care), or activity (e.g. health education).
    Add to my documents.
  12. 12
    267361

    Technical co-operation in the field of fertility and the family.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 467-76. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)

    This paper refers to the substantive collaboration that the UN Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) has provided in the field of fertility and family. The objectives are: 1) to present, within the framework of the structure of its program, a review of the Department's experience in the implementation of the World Population Plan of Action; 2) to distill from this experience the major problems encountered as well as lessons learned; and 3) to synthesize from these a series of recommendations to improve technical co-operation activities. Within the the UN system, the DTCD is a major executing agency for projects funded by the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) at the country, intercountry and global levels. The Department's experience in the implementation of the Plan of Action is primarily to provide developing countries with support to develop or improve national capacities for data collection, evaluation, analyses and presenting the data in a form responsive to users. The long-term objective of this undertaking is to assist governments in creating the capacity for conducting all types of demographic data collection and analysis and to increase the capacity of governments to utilize effectively the data and analysis resulting from censuses, surveys and vital registration systems. The purpose of the UN program of training in population is to establish within developing countries a cadre of professionals capable of establishing a body of demographic knowledge within their own countries. The goal of the majority of the projects on population policy and development planning is to assist governments in the process of incorporating population variables into the national development planning process. The Department's program generates a process of development in such a way that training creates the ability to design and conduct fertility surveys, the analysis of which can be used in the formulation of policy to be incorporated into national development plans. Problems encountered during the last decade of experience include: 1) the lack of importance placed on the analysis of census, survey and vital registration results in the preparation of fertility studies; 2) government motivation; 3) countries that have clear-cut policies on fertility have often not implemented them as integral parts of the national development strategy; and 4) the lack of an infrastructure and other national counterpart support for population projects. Several recommendations are proposed with respect to the provision of future technical co-operation.
    Add to my documents.
  13. 13
    027076

    New currents and emerging emphasis in research and policy.

    Page HJ

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. Fertility and family. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 107-23. (International Conference on Population, 1984; Statements)

    The Expert Group Meeting on Fertility and Family was assinged the identification of those areas in current scientific knowledge and concerns regarding fertility and family that were of greatest salience for policy formulation and implementation. Particular attention was to be paid to shifts that had occurred since the 1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest. This article is mainly an overview of the work of the Group and is organized around 3 main themes: 1) advances in knowledge of fertility levels and trends; 2) advances in understanding the relations between development, fertility and the family; 3)theoretical advances and practical experience with regard to policy formulation and implementation. 1) Knowledge of existing patterns of fertility and their composition has increased markedly over the last decade as a result of more data, better estimation techniques for measuring fertility levels and of new approaches to studying the reporductive process and family formation (e.g., the development of analytical models that allow quantification of the role of the various proximate determinants of fertility). A far-reaching realization is that proximate determinants of fertility may respond to the same set of factors but their responses may exhibit different elasticities. 2) In the understanding the relations between development, fertility and family, 2 main areas of concern can be identified. He level and type of analyses to date, especially the empirical ones, have been carried out at the micro-level, focusing on the individual decision maker. Although such models are advances over earlier ones developed largely from classical demographic transition theory, yet, their use has not been entirely satisfying because of the common failure to adequately specify the concepts involved and/or to substitute for them broad socioeconomic indicators in empirical work. In addition, institutional supports for and interrelations with particular patterns of fertility and family have been neglected, resulting, theoretical and practical impoverishment. The 2nd area of concern is the identification of those dimensions of family structure and function that are most intimately interlocked with modernization and fertility change. The discussion focuses on the interplay between modernization, the relationship between the generations, and between the sexes. Finally, there is an increasing awareness that a number of aspirations regarding fertility and family may be contradictory with respect to general advances in policcy formulation and implementation. 4 important trends can be discerned: 1) assessment of the potential utility and effectiveness of policy and programmatic efforts; 2) trends in the definition of desirable goals; 3) new directions in terms of the institutiona means for achieving these goals; and 4) shifts in the perception of the individual's freedom of choice.
    Add to my documents.
  14. 14
    024930

    The urban and city population projections of the United Nations: data, definitions and methods.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 67-74. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    This paper draws attention to the large variation in national practices to determine localities and to classify urban populations which has serious implicatons for any projections of urban and city populations, no matter what specific methodology is being used. There are many criteria by whichlocalities can be defined as urban: population size, population density, % labor force in non-agriucltural activities, function of the city, some other unspecified "urban" characteristics or a combination of several of these criteria. Population size is deemed the preferable criterion for designating localities as urban. This criterion is consistent with one of the classic definitions of urbanization: "Urbanization is a process of population concenttration. It proceeds in 2 ways: the multiplication of points of concentration and the increase in size of individual concentration." Population size is also the most widely available criteria for localities. Procedures used by the UN to estimate and project urban and city population are given. The UN utilizes a measure of urbanization called the urban-rural ratio (URR), which is defined as the ratio of the urban to the rural population for a country at a given point in time. While attempts are being made to provide as complete a coverage of cities as possible, no standard guidelines have so far been used to systematically include all cities that will reach 100,000 population during the projection period. It is hoped that detailed discussion of the data and the conceptual and procedural problems will lead users of the estimates and projections to carefully consult the respective sources and definitions when they use these results for comparative purposes.
    Add to my documents.
  15. 15
    024921

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
    Add to my documents.