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In: Population, resources, environment and development. Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population, Resources, Environment and Development, Geneva, 25-29 April 1983, [compiled by] United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. New York, New York, United Nations, 1984. 383-402. (Population Studies No. 90; ST/ESA/SER.A/90; International Conference on Population, 1984)Following an exploration of the interrelationships between population, development, and international economic relations, this paper discusses the trade requirements of a growing population under the International Development Strategy. The discussion concludes with some reflections concerning the nature of the structural adjustments in the world economy necessary to create an international environment supportive of the development needs of the developing countries and conducive to a sustained growth of the world economy. Because of the close link between production and international economic relations, any change in the rate of growth of population has implications for trading patterns and the flow of capital. Population also directly affects the level of consumption and hence, import demand for consumer goods and for raw materials and the capital equipment necessary to produce goods for final consumption. Evidence exists in support of the view that the savings rate could be influenced by demographic trends. Also the role of changing age structure of the population should not be discounted. The experience of the fastest growing developing countries reflects the strong links between development, industrialization, and international trade. Their liberal trading policies and outward orientations have contributed significantly to their success. Given the projected population growth for developing countries of 2.6% in the 1980s and 2.3% in the 1990s, the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth target would be 4.4% in the 1980s and 4.7% in the 1990s. Achievement of the ambitious growth targets set by the International Development Strategy would only make a modest beginning towards narrowing the relative income gap between the developed and developing countries by 2000. Accelerating the growth of developing countries would require a faster accumulation of capital or an increase in the investment to GDP ratio from 26.7% in 1980 to 28.8% in 1990 and 27.6% in 2000. A table shows that the resulting external balance in the year 2000 would be 4.8% of the GDP of developing countries as a whole. The developed market economies will need to improve substantially their savings performance in order to make available financial resources needed by developing economies.
Development: Seeds of Change. 1984; 2:63-4.The need to completely rethink the practice of rural development strategy is clear, but the danger lies in restricting the reexamination to merely a fragment of the process--planning--when rural development should be considered in its entirety as a process in which rigid and conventional planning has serious limitations. The issue is not whether some "adaptation" of the classical approach will work, but whether the basic assumptions were meant for rural populations. Actually, practical experience shows that "success" has often been the result of respecting a more natural rural development process in which the following 6 principles have been interwoven: rural development cannot be based on classical planning methods that assume a planning implementation dichotomy; implementation must not be the application of a readymade plan, since planning, execution, and evaluation are a constantly ongoing interacting process; environmental complexity requires an analysis and a detailed dynamic comprehension of the ecological, human, political, economic, and institutional variables affected; the complexity and slow pace of the environment's evolution requires that, from the onset, the intervention occurs in a restricted geographical area over an extended time period of from 10-20 years; the participation of target groups in the implementation and evaluation of activities must depend on their increased participation in the ongoing design of the project; and the comprehensive mobilization of the population requires support from all the local structures (nongovernmental organizations, private sectors, peasant movements) in order to foster self development and a better balance of resources and power. These principles are not without important repercussions for both donor agencies and recipient countries. Recent experiences confirm the need to compromise and adapt the donor's organizational and political restrictions as well as the requirements of the recipient governments. If managing rural development is complex and difficult for a donor agency, it is often equally so for a local technical department. In sum, rural development is a social project involving the transformation of the human, economic, political, ecological, and institutional aspects of the rural society of a specific area. Rural development is an ambitious undertaking, and it has become increasingly evident that rural development is incompatible with classical planning approaches.
Development: Seeds of Change. 1984; 2:66-7.UN International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) experience over the last 20 years suggests that successful development for poor people is not possible without substantial grassroots involvement. This is the experience both in the developing and in industrialized countries. In the 1960s it became increasingly clear to UNICEF that if programs were to succeed with the small and landless farmers and the urban slum dwellers, there was no possibility of finding enough money to meet needs of these people through governmental channels. It was equally clear that in most places the existing patterns of development andeconomic growth would not reach these people until the year 2000 or thereabots. It was this that led UNICEF to adopt its basic services approach in the late 1960s and early 1970s, which implied that the cost of the most needed basic health services, education, and water had to be reduced to manageable limits. At this stage UNICEF began to articulate the imperative of using paraprofessionals, the need for much greater use of technology that was appropriate to rural and slum areas, and the importance of involving the people in this effort. Looking at those low income countries which have managed to achieve longer life expectancy and higher literacy rates, they are all societies which have practiced much more people's participation in economic and social activities than most other countries. These 3 very different societies -- China, South Korea, and Sri Lanka -- all have had a rather unique degree of people's participation in the development process. Grassroots participation in development is a very important element in developing and in industrial countries. 1 example concerns the whole question of proper nutrition practices, the promotion of breastfeeding, and the problem of the infant formula code. It was the people's groups which picked up the research results in the 1960s, which showed that breastfeeding was a better and more nutritious way of feeding children. The 2nd example pertains to the US government recommendation of significant cuts in UNDP and UNICEF, and the refusal of Congress to give in to those cuts. In regard to the developing countries, over the last year it has increasingly become the consensus of international experts that a childrens' health revolutioon is possible. The conclusion was based upon the fact that there were 2 new sets of developments coming together that created this new opportunity: some new technological advances in the development of rural rehydration therapy; and the capacity to communicate with poor people. With the whole emphasis on the basic human needs of the last 10 years, and on primary health care in the last 5 years, literally millions of health auxiliaries and community workers have been trained, a group of people who, if a country can mobilize them, can provide a new form of access.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1984. 13 p.An overview of the global economy is provided, with particular attention to the 3rd world, and focusing on 4 economic issues that deserve priority in 1984 and for some years to come: improving economic policy and performance in the industrial countries; liberalizing trade; reviving international capital flows; and improving economic policy in the developing countries. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the industrial countries as a group are likely to achieve economic growth of 3.5% in 1984, up from 2.25% in 1983 and negative growth in 1982. The World Bank estimate is that the developing countries will average growth of 3-3.5% in 1984, up from less than 1% in 1983 and less than 2% in 1982. Yet, since population is growing more than 2% a year in the developing countries, average per capita income actually fell in 1982-83 and will increase only modestly in 1984. Economic conditions vary greatly among the developing countries. 1 priority issue, clearly, is improved economic policies and performance in the industrial countries so that they can translate their current recovery into sustained and noninflationary growth. To move from recovery into a sustained period of economic expansion, the industrial countries need to create an environment conducive to structural change. Sustained and rapid growth will require further liberalization of international trade, and this is another priority issue. Barriers to trade must be reduced, including trade between the industrial and developing countries. Trade with developing countries is vitally important to the industrial countries. For the developing countries, growing exports to the industrial countries are essential for the recovery of growth and credit worthiness. For the world's low income countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, effective programs of official development assistance are essential. So the World Bank will continue to urge governments to increase their International Development Association (IDA) contributions. Strengthening IDA will be difficult, but it is essential. The slump in commercial bank lending and direct investment, along with very slow growth in official lending and development assistance, has forced the developing countries to cut imports. Looking ahead, it is expected that most developing countries will continue to be able to import more than they export and that the negative net transfers for medium- and longterm lending from private sources will continue to decline gradually. The debt crisis has had a most damaging effect on the private sector in the developing world. Developing countries must pursue economic policy reform urgently and tenaciously, for it is absolutely fundamental to the resumption of their economic and social progress.