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  1. 1

    Basis for the definition of the organization's action policy with respect to population matters.

    Pan American Health Organization [PAHO]

    [Unpublished] 1984 May 8. 31 p. (CE 92/12)

    This report shows how demographic information can be analyzed and used to identify and characterize the groups assigned priority in the Regional Plan of Action and that it is necessary for the improvement of the planning and allocation of health resources so that national health plans can be adapted to encompass the entire population. In discussing the connections between health and population characteristics in the countries of the region, the report covers mortality, fertility and health, and fertility and population increase; spatial distribution and migration; and the structure of the population. Focus then moves on to health, development, and population policies and family planning. The final section of the report considers the response of the health sector to population trends and characteristics and to development-related factors. The operations of the health sector must be revised in keeping with the observed demographic situation and the projections thereof so that the goal of health for all by the year 2000 may be realized. In several countries of the region mortality remains high. In 1/3 of them, infant mortality during the period 1980-85 exceeds 60/1000 live births. If measures are not taken to reduce mortality 55% of the population of Latin America in the year 2000 will still be living in countries with life expectancies at birth of under 70 years. According to the projections, in the year 2000 the birthrate will stand at around 29/1000, with wide differences between the countries of the region, within each of them, and between socioeconomic strata. High fertility will remain a factor hostile to the health of women and children and a determinant of rapid population growth. Some governments view the present or predicted growth rates as excessive; others want to increase them; and some take no explicit position on the matter. The countries would be well advised to assign values to their birthrate, natural increase, and periods for doubling their populations in relation to their development plans and to the prospects for improving the standard of living and health of their populations. An important factor in urban growth is internal migration. These migrants, like some of those who move to other countries, may have health problems requiring special care. Regardless of a country's demographic situation, the health sector has certain responsibilities, including: the need to promote the framing and adoption of population and development policies, in whose implementation the importance of health measures is not open to question; and the need to favor the intersector coordination and articulation required to ensure that population aspects are considered in national development planning.
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  2. 2

    [Statistical country yearbook: members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, 1984] Statisticheskii ezhegodnik stran--chlenov Soveta Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi, 1984.

    Sovet Ekonomicheskoi Vzaimopomoshchi

    Moscow, USSR, Finansy i Statistika, 1984. 456 p.

    This yearbook presents general statistical information for member countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. A section on population (pp. 7-14) includes data on area and population; population according to the latest census; average annual population; birth, death, and natural increase rates; infant mortality; average life expectancy; marriages and divorces; urban and rural population; and population distribution by social group. (ANNOTATION)
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  3. 3

    A fresh look at the threshold hypothesis of fertility change in ESCAP region

    Pathak KB; Murthy PK

    Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.

    The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
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  4. 4

    Demographic trends and their development implications.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    In: Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982). Selected papers. Bangkok, Thailand, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1984. 9-40. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 58)

    This report summarizes the recent demographic situation and considers prospective trends and their development implications among the 39 members and associate members of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). It presents data on the following: size, growth, and distribution of the population; age and sex structure; fertility and marriage; mortality; international migration; growth and poverty; food and nutrition; households and housing; primary health care; education; the working-age population; family planning; the elderly; and population distribution. Despite improvements in the frequency and quality of demographic data collected in recent years, big gaps continue to exist in knowledge of the demographic situation in the ESCAP region. Available evidence suggests that the population growth rate of the ESCAP region declined between 1970 and 1980, as compared with the preceding decade, but that its rate of decline was slow. Within this overall picture, there is wide variation, with the most developed countries having annual growth rates around 1% and some of the least developed countries having a figure near 3%. The main factors associated with the high growth rates are the past high levels of fertility resulting in young age structures and continuing high fertility in some countries, notably in middle south Asia. The population of countries in the ESCAP region is expected to grow from 2.5 billion in 1980, to 2.9 billion in 1990, and to 3.4 billion persons by the year 2000. This massive growth in numbers, which will be most pronounced in Middle South Asia, will occur despite projected continuing moderation in annual population growth rates. Fertility is expected to continue its downward trend, assuming a more widespread and equitable distribution of health, education, and family planning services. Mortality is expected to decline further from its current levels, where life expectancy is often at or around 50 years. In several countries, more than 10 in every 100 babies born die before their 1st birthday. The extension of primary health care services is seen as the key to reducing this figure. Rapid population growth and poverty tend to reinforce each other. Low income, lack of education, and high infant and child mortality contribute to high fertility, which in turn is associated with high rates of natural increase. High rates of natural increase feed back to depress socioeconomic development. High population growth rates and their correlates of young age structures and heavy concentrations of persons in the nonproductive ages tend to depress production and burden government expenditure with high costs for social overhead needs. Rapid population growth emerges as an important factor in the persistence of chronic undernutrition and malnutrition. It increases the magnitude of the task of improving the educational system and exacerbates the problem of substandard housing that is widely prevalent throughout Asia.
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  5. 5

    The demographic situation in the United Kingdom.

    England. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys

    [Unpublished] 1984 Aug. Background note presented to the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City, August 6-13, 1984. 4 p.

    The United Kingdom's birth rate has been below replacement level since 1973. Average family size is becoming smaller; the most popular size is 2 children. Women are postponing births to a later date, and age at marriage has risen. Problems of providing support and services for the growing number of very elderly are being studied by the government. Size of population is of less concern than well-being to the government. They provide assistance with family planning through the National Health Service, but believe that decisions about fertility and childbearing are each couple's to make. Population figures are taken into account in making economic and social policy, but there is no attempt to influence overall size and components of change except in the area of immigration where they lose more people by emigration than they gain from immigration.
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  6. 6

    Concise report on the world population situation in 1983: conditions, trends, prospects, policies.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, United Nations, 1984. 108 p. (Population Studies, No. 85; ST/ESA/SER.A/85)

    The 3 parts of this report on world, regional, and international developments in the field of population, present a summary of levels, trends, and prospects in mortality, fertility, nuptiality, international migration, population growth, age structure, and urbanization; consider some important issues in the interrelationships between economic, social, and demographic variables, with special emphasis on the problems of food supply and employment; and deal with the policies and perceptions of governments on population matters. The 1st part of the report is based primarily on data compiled by the UN Population Division. The 2nd part is based on information provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), as well as that compiled by the Population Division. The final part is based on information in the policy data bank maintained by the Population Division, including responses to the UN Fourth Population Inquiry among Governments. In 1975-80 the expectation of life at birth for the world was estimated at 57.2 years for both sexes combined. The corresponding figure for the developed and developing regions was 71.9 and 54.7 years, respectively. In 1975-80 the birthrate of the world was estimated at 28.9/1000 population and the gross reproduction rate was 1.91. These figures reflect considerable decline from the levels attained 25 years earlier: a crude birthrate of 38/1000 population and a gross reproduction rate of 2.44. World population grew from 2504 million in 1950 to 4453 million in 1983. Of the additional 1949 million people, 1645 million, or 84%, accrued to the less developed countries. The impact of population growth on economic development and social progress is not well understood. The governments of some developing countries still officially welcome a rapid rate of population growth. Many other governments see cause for concern in the need for the large increases in social expenditure, particularly for health and education, that accompany a young and growing population. Planners are concerned that the rapidly growing supply of labor, compounded by a trend toward rapid urbanization, may exceed that which the job market is likely to absorb. In the developed regions the prospect of a declining, or an aging, population is also cause for apprehension. There is a dearth of knowledge as to the impact of policies for altering the consequences of these trends. Many policies have been tried, in both developed and developing countries, to influence population growth and distribution, but the consequences of such policies have been difficult to assess. Frequently this problem arises because their primary objectives are not demographic in character.
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  7. 7

    Population: the Mexico conference and the future.

    Salas RM

    [Unpublished] 1984. 13 p. (UNFPA/ICP/84/E/2500)

    The complex relationship between population and development continues to be of critical concern for all countries of the World. World population is expected to increase to 6.1 billion by the year 2000 and stabilize at 10.5 billion by the end of the next century. This depends, however, on maintenance of the current momentum to reduce fertility. Although government programs to reduce fertility are available in countries covering 80% of the population of the developing world, levels of desired fertility in developing countries are higher than the fertility level necessary to attain eventual population stability (2.1 children/woman). The increase in the number of metropolitan centers and urbanization of the population have been striking features of the past decade. Changes in the volume, direction, and characteristics of international migration flows have raised concerns about human rights and the welfare aspects of these population movements. A significant feature of world demography has been the clearer emergence of intraregional similarities and interregional differences in population issues. Although the principles and objectives of the World Population Plan of Action will remain valid in the decades ahead, national population goals must be systematically reassessed. Countries should seek consistency between national and global goals and policies, take a longterm perspective, be aware of the interrelationships of the specific recommendations, be conscious of changing perceptions of population issues, and be alert to the primacy of the individual and his rights. The link between population and global security, and the role of population in shaping political behavior, point to the need for international cooperation. A more satisfying future can be brought about only through determined, rational, and humane population policies.
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