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  1. 1

    United Nations population estimates and projections with special reference to the Arab world.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    Population Bulletin of the United Nations Economic Commission For Western Asia. 1980 Jun; 18:65-80.

    The United Nations Population Division has been preparing world population estimates and projections by region since 1951, by country since 1958, and by sex and age for each country since 1968. The latest revision of the projections was prepared in 1978. The 2 basic methods of preparing population projections are mathematical and component, and the component methods are most widely used at present, by both national governments and the United Nations. Before projections are prepared, the base data must be evaluated and adjusted. In the UN projections, the assumptions imply that orderly progress will be made and that there will be no catastrophes such as famines and epidemics during the projection period. The projectins are prepared in 4 variants--"medium", "high," "low," and "constant." A major source of uncertainty in populations arises from the problem of estimating future fertility. Changes in fertility affect the age distribution and the total population size more than changes in mortality. At the UN, mortality assumptions are initially made in terms of life expectancy at birth and then in terms of age-sex patterns of probabilities of survival corresponding to different life expectancy levels at birth. Some of the results of the 1978 revision of the medium variant of the estimates and projections are shown in table form. The world total population of 4,033,000,000 in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199,000,000 by the year 2000. Among the major areas and regions of the world, the most rapid population growth for the future is projected for the Arab countries, Africa and Latin America. Of the 2 Arab regions, North Africa and Southwest Asia, Southwest Asia is expected to have the higher rate of growth because of assumed continued immigration. Within the Arab regions, there has been an increasing diversity in the rate of population growth. This divergence is expected to narrow with assumed decreased migration rates during the 1980s.
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  2. 2

    World and regional population growth.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    In: United Nations. Dept. of International and Social Affairs. World population trends and policies: 1979 monitoring report. Vol. 1. Population trends. New York, U.N., 1980. 23-7. (Population Studies; No. 70)

    In 1978 the United Nations Population Division reassessed world population estimates and projections in light of data that became available after the previous assessment of 1973. In this report the 1973 figures and the 1978 figures are compared with respect to base population, growth rate, and projections for the latter half of the 20th century. According to the 1978 assessment the population growth rates projected in 1973 were too high for both developing and developed countries, and the world population growth rate has been declining since the 1960s rather than rising as previously thought. However, the revised estimate of 1975 world population is higher by 65 million than the previous estimate, so the projection for the year 2000 is only slightly lower than before in spite of lower growth rates. The 1973 and 1978 assessments for major areas in developed and developing regions are tabulated and discussed.
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  3. 3

    Progress of work, 1979-1980, of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs in the field of population: report of the Secretary-General.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Council. Population Commission

    New York, UN, 1980 Nov 18. 20 p. (E/CN.9/349)

    A progress report of work performed during the 1979-1980 period by the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs in the field of population is presented. Covered in the report are activities of the Secretariat in the analysis of demographic trends and structure, demographic estimates and projections, fertility and family planning, population and development, population policy, monitoring and review and appraisal of the World Population Plan of Action. Also included are other continuing activities of the Secretariat. During the period covered by the report, efforts continued to carry out the program adopted by the Commission and the General Assembly. Mortality studies were reinstated along with urbanization studies, the scope of work in international migration was expanded, and new projections were prepared of total population, its sex-age structure, its urban-rural distribution, and the number of households and families. Additional work was carried out on analysis of World Fertility Survey data and of factors affecting acceptance of family planning programs. Also continued was the investigation of the relationships between social and economic factors and the components of demographic change. Under continuous study was the policy implications of the changing world population. Studies in population development and studies analyzing population policies were predominant in this 3rd round of monitoring of population trends and policies.
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  4. 4

    Action by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974: monitoring of population trends and policies: concise report on monitoring of population trends.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Council. Population Commission

    New York, UN, 1980 Dec 16. 30 p. (E/CN.9/347)

    Included in this document is a concise report presented to the Population Commission on the findings of the 3rd round of monitoring of world population trends as requested by the Economic and Social Council in resolution 1979/33. The findings are summarized in terms of the recent levels and trends of demographic variables and their differentials. Attention is directed to the socioeconomic determinants and consequences of these levels and trends. The relationships between population and development are reviewed. Such aspects are included as economic disparities associated with socio-demographic development and the relations between fertility, mortality and socioeconomic variables in developing countries. There appears to be increasing evidence that a movement towards fertility decline in underway in the developing countries and that the trend towards moderation in the rate of growth of world population is continuing. The annual rate of growth of the world population may decline to 1.5% by the end of the 20th century, from 1.7 at this time and 2.0% over 15 years ago. The decline is small, and its significance lies primarily in its persistence and anticipated acceleration. Otherwise, substantial population increase, primarily in many of the developing countries, will persist and continue to be among the major factors influencing the present and future of humanity. The decline in the birthrate of the developing countries was mostly brought about by declines in China and in several East-Asian, South-Asian and Latin American countries. Besides the initial fertility decline in the developing countries, another primary feature of the present demographic situation is the continuing fertility decline in the developed countries.
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  5. 5

    Africa faces new population challenges.

    Haupt A

    Intercom. 1980 May; 8(5):1, 12-15.

    Africa's growing population problems and the role of family planning in Africa were described. Population growth in Africa is accelerating more rapidly than in any other region of the world and population pressures on the continent are just beginning to emerge. The current population of Africa is 472 million and constitutes 10% of the world's population. Most countries in Africa are just entering the early phase of the demographic transition. Mortality rates are declining but the birth rates remain high. Africa's growth rate increased from 2% to 3% from 1955-1980. In sub-Saharan Africa vital statistics are not available for many of the countries and population estimates are based on inadequate data. Fertility is high in the region and the average woman has 6-7 children. Population problems in the region are masked to some extent because population density is still relatively low; however, land pressures are beginning to mount as overgrazed, deforested, eroded, and exhausted land areas increase. Per capita food production is declining by 1.4% annaually due in part to the outdated transportation and marketing systems which characterize many of the sub-Saharan countries. In many of these sub-Saharan countries there is a lack of interest in family planning and some governments have pronatalist population policies. Family planning is viewed by some Africans as an attempt on the part of Westerners to suppress the native population. National governments often hesitate to establish family planning programs for fear that these will be interpreted as veiled attempts to reduce the political influence of opposing tribal groups. Most family planning activities in sub-Saharan countries are financially supported by private and international organizations. Major contributors in 1979 were UNFPA, which provided $18 million primarily for the collection of demographic data, and IPPF, which spent $7.5 million on family planning programs. Other organizations providing assistance are 1) the Pathfinders, 2) the Population Council, and 3) the Family Planning International Assistance. USAID provides direct funding and also funds bilateral and regional programs through individual governments.
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