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Washington, D.C., ZPG, 1988 Aug.  p. (ZPG Fact Sheet)Industrialized nations have emitted gases, which are transforming the Earth into a greenhouse, into the atmosphere for many years. Carbon dioxide (CO2), produced by burning fossil fuels and wood; chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) released by refrigerants and other sources; nitrous oxides, generated by fossil fuels; and methane, produced from decomposition of organic matter, trap infrared rays thereby causing an unprecedented rate of global warming. In the period from 1900-1988, the concentration of CO2 has climbed 20% and the average global temperature has risen >1 degree Fahrenheit. Further, since 1963, the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 essentially equals population growth. Population growth also directly contributes to the increase in atmospheric methane. Forests naturally remove CO2 from the air, yet humans are destroying about 27 million acres of tropical forests/year. If the present fossil fuel rates persist, CO2 concentration will increase 2 fold by 2050 causing a mean global temperature increase of 9 degrees Fahrenheit. Other computer simulations predict changes in global precipitation, droughts, a rise in sea level by 1-4 feet, and the extinction of many species of plants and animals. Scientists major concern is the suddenness of this climatic change because it leaves little time for humans and plant and animal species to adapt. The World Meterological Organization of the United Nations advises that all nations ratify the recommendations of the 1987 Montreal meeting on ozone. 1 recommendation states that the industrialized nations must reduce the production and consumption of CFCs by 50% by the end of the century. Since the US consumes 28% of the world's annual energy consumption, the US should led the world in energy conservation. Any approach that does not advocate resource consumption and population stabilization will fail, however.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 2000 Jun; 26(2):413-7.This article is a reprint of the executive summary of the UN Population Division report entitled "Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Population?" The UN report computed the size of replacement migration and investigated the possible effects of replacement migration on the population size and age structure for eight countries and two regions that have a common fertility pattern of below the replacement level for the period 1995-2050. Major findings revealed that, the populations of most developed countries are projected to become smaller and older as a result of below-replacement fertility and increased longevity. In the absence of migration, these declines in population size will be even greater than projected. Therefore, the challenges being brought about by the decline and aging population will require objective, thorough, and comprehensive reassessments of many established economic, social and political policies and programs, in particular the replacement migration.
Statement to the Thirty-Second Session of the Commission on Population and Development. Agenda item 4: World Population Situation.
[Unpublished] 1999. Presented at the United Nations Commission on Population and Development, Thirty-second session, New York, New York, March 22-31, 1999  p.This paper summarizes the results of the 1998 Revision of World Demographic Prospects. It presents three projection variants known as the "high fertility," "medium fertility," and "low fertility" variants. The medium variant assumes that high fertility countries today will reach replacement level by 2050, while countries with fertility under replacement level today will remain under replacement level. The high variant assumes that the fertility of all countries will be at above replacement level by 2050, and the low variant assumes that the fertility of all countries will be below replacement level by 2050. Significantly, different age distributions result from the different growth dynamics implied by the three variants. Differences in population dynamics between developed and less developed regions are expected to persist during the next century. According to the low and high variants, the population of more developed regions is expected to total 1 and 1.4 billion persons, respectively, in 2050, and according to both medium and low variants, population growth in those regions will be declining by then. Net migration from less developed to more developed regions is expected to make a major contribution to the population growth--or reduced decline in population--of more developed regions in all variants. Projection variants estimate that there will be a continuous reduction of mortality in a majority of countries in the 21st century. The exceptions are the 32 countries with high adult prevalence of HIV/AIDS in 1997, including Brazil and India. By 2050, the impact of HIV/AIDS in the 34 most affected countries is expected to reduce the world's population by 186 million.
WORLD HEALTH. 1998 Mar-Apr; 51(2):26-7.This article discusses the WHO mission of health for all, and the prospects for future aging of populations in developed countries. Life expectancies have increased in the richest countries of the world; now over 75 years in many countries. Increases are due to improved sanitation, control of environmental hazards, better nutrition, public health initiatives, and clinical interventions. The example of Japan illustrates the rapid shift over time to a large elderly population, and the highest life expectancies in the world for both men and women. Almost 15% of Japan's population will be 75 years or over by 2025. 66% of this elderly population will be female. Japan achieved this population profile by rapid fertility decline. Since 1995, the population aged 15-64 years began to decline. By 2050, total population will decline to about 110 million. Japan has below replacement fertility. Deaths exceed births. Other countries with replacement level fertility or below include Italy, Spain, Germany, Hong Kong, Slovenia, Greece, Austria, Japan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania, Portugal, Switzerland, the Russian Federation, Bulgaria, Estonia, Netherlands, Macau, Cuba, Belgium, Ukraine, Latvia, Republic of Korea, Croatia, Luxembourg, Belarus, Czech Republic, Hungary, France, Barbados, Canada, Denmark, Lithuania, United Kingdom, Singapore, Finland, Slovakia, Norway, Poland, Australia, China, Yugoslavia, Thailand, Bahamas, Sweden, Ireland, Martinique, United States, Malta, Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
BMJ. British Medical Journal. 1993 Nov 6; 307(6913):1161.The first population summit for 56 of the world's scientific academies was held in New Delhi in late 1993. Participants at the three day meeting recommended that governments adopt an integrated policy on population and sustainable development. The African Academy of Science, co-sponsored of the event, did not endorse the recommendation. The African Academy of Sciences considered its large population as an important resource necessary for the exploitation of natural resources and productivity. Family planning that was fertility regulation alone was considered simplistic by the African Academy. The recommendation was separately endorsed by the national governments of Egypt, Ghana, and Nigeria. The aim of the summit was to provide input to the upcoming UN World Conference on Population and Development scheduled for Cairo in 1994. The population projection of 7.8 billion by 2050 with a reduced fertility of 1.7 children per woman early in the 21st century was still considered too large. The summit spent considerable time on the issue of funding for contraceptive research and development, which was low at 3% of annual sales globally. The distinction was made that family planning services should be part of a broader strategy of improving the quality of human life. There was less agreement on depletion of resources and environmental degradation. China, India, and Indonesia were considered to be depleting natural resources. However, excessive consumption was identified in the United States, Germany, and Japan. The US population of 250 million had a resource demand index 50 times higher than Indonesia's population of 188 million. The summit statement urged developed countries to be more resourceful in resource use and eliminate waste. An Oxford academician's considered opinion was that it was easier to reduce population size than to reduce affluence, lifestyles, and wastefulness.
Teaneck, New Jersey, Negative Population Growth, 1994 Aug.  p. (Negative Population Growth Position Paper)This position paper for the world population conference in Cairo in 1994 by the Negative Population Growth (NPG) organization reiterates the belief that disaster will result if growth is not stopped at eight billion people and then reversed. The demands of population growth require stopping growth and not just accommodating it. NPG recommends that the low variant of eight billion can only be reached by attaining subreplacement fertility of 1.7 by 2025-30. This means that world fertility would need to decline from the present 3.2 within 35 years. Family planning (FP) measures alone will not produce subreplacement fertility. A concerted effort must be made to change family size desires in all nations and to increase the demand for contraceptives. Universal access to FP is only one way to achieve subreplacement fertility. Measures such as expanded modernization or improving the status of women and educational status will not bring about change fast enough. Noncoercion in promotion of smaller families is a requirement. Incentives have been successful in China and Singapore. China faces a huge problem, and its past coercion should neither be promoted nor condemned. The final draft UN document is flawed in not stipulating a goal, such as the low UN variant. Sustainable development is not feasible with the present billions, much less with eight billion people. The solution is the combined interaction of FP, modernization, better status and education for women, reduced family size desires, incentives, and other measures. Emphasis should be on the optimum rate of growth and not on some hypothetical optimum population size number. The solution based on Erich Fromm's sense of history will depend on the cultural capacity of societies for planned, rational, voluntary reaction to challenge. While governments delay, famine, disease, and anarchy will prevail, and hope for a good life for all, free from material want, will perish. Inducements to reduce family size are a major omission from the draft document.
Schools of thought: negotiation analysis applied to interest groups active in international population policy formulation.
[Unpublished] 1993. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, Ohio, April 1-3, 1993. 17 p.The international population policy arena, based on negotiation analysis theory and methodology from the literature on conflict resolutions, is examined. 5 interest groups have been identified as influential in international population policy: the population, or population-concerned, community (POP); the market-preference community (MKT); the community representing international distribution concerns (DST); women's health advocates, focusing on women's initiatives (WIN); and the Vatican (VTC). The 5 groups' interest, population issues, preferred policy instruments (PPIs), and beliefs are presented. Asymmetry among these groups is revealed. Limiting solutions to the common ground between 2 such groups addresses only one PPI of the only group whose primary interest is the subject of the policy area, while it satisfies the primary interest of the second group. The most active dialogue in the field since the Earth Summit has been between POP and WIN. There is justification for: 1) refusing to limit the population subject to WIN objectives; 2) proposing an alternate intervention point in support of WIN's concerns about insensitive family planning programs; 3) taking an inclusive or integrative approach to population policy, with WIN and DST concerns incorporated into the process; 4) disaggregating the issues by including many issues not considered by the different groups for discussion, treating some linked pairs of issues as discussion topics in addition to single issues and then reaggregating the issues found to be relevant; and 5) viewing most of the WIN objectives as appropriate subjects for human rights policy, while viewing a number of WIN objectives that are either instrumental to population concerns or responsive to WIN concerns about family planning programs as appropriate components of population policy.
Population, natural resources and development. Recognition of the problems: a step in the direction of solving them.
AMBIO. 1992 Feb; 21(1):4-5.A brief summary is provided of international efforts related to the issues of population growth and limitation. The 1970s is remembered as the time the UN Expert Group on Population and the Environment met in Stockholm (1973) and the first UN Conference on Population took place in Bucharest (1974). The 1980s marked the second World Conference on Population, the UN Expert Group meeting in Geneva, and publication of the Brundtland report, "Our Common Future." The 1990s saw the Earth Summit, which brought together a variety of professional to discuss the issues of population, the environment, and development. The UN conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992 included the issue of population due to the efforts of representatives of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research. These representatives discovered that population issues were not included in the conference agenda and felt strongly that all essential global issues needed to be addressed. Within the time available, the conference agenda was set to overcome interdisciplinary problems and to engage in scientific discussion of essential issues. The goal was also to present scientific information in a way that was suitable for political audiences. There was to be comprehensive analysis and a set of recommendations which addressed linkages between population, the environment, and development. Success was achieved in maintaining open, positive, and searching debate among the economists, ecologists, sociologists, demographers, and others in attendance. There was no direct confrontation or territorial dispute. The Conference Statement generated a comprehensive analysis and wide reaching proposals for future action. The next Conference on Population and Development is scheduled for 1994. The environment will be firmly on the agenda, and the primary focus will be the human population and its future.
POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Feb; 20(2):6-7.The 1990 world population extensions, published by the United Nations Population Division, differ dramatically from the 1980 long-range projections and suggest reason for serious concern about future trends. In the 1980 extensions, it was assumed that all countries would achieve replacement fertility. The 3 scenarios developed--high, middle, and low--resulted in a population estimate for the year 2150 that ranged from 10,139 to 28,025 billion. In contrast, the 1990 extensions show 7 divergent long-range scenarios that yield totals for 2150 ranging from 4,299 to 694,213 billion. The latter projection assumes no change in current population growth rates. the medium-high series, based on the assumption that fertility will settle on a value 5% above replacement level, yields an estimate of 20,772 billion for 2150; the medium-low series, which projects a fertility level 5% below replacement level, produces a population estimate of 5,633 billion. In both the 1980 and 1990 series, the medium estimate was based on achievement of replacement-level fertility on a schedule that varied region by region on the basis of current birth rates, population policies, and socioeconomic factors. This estimate for 2050 increased from 10,139 billion in 1980 to 11,543 billion in the 1990 series, due to upward revisions in life expectancy in the latter calculations. These projections are of great significance since they form the basis for food production, labor force, and other socioeconomic planning.
[Unpublished] . 10,  p.Based upon United Nations medium population projections, the population of developing countries will grow from 4,086 million in 1990, to 5,000 million by the year 2000. To meet this medium-level projection, 186 million contraceptive users must be added for a total 567 million in addition to increased contraceptive prevalence of 59% from 51%. This study estimates the number of contraceptive users, acceptors, and cost of contraceptive commodities needed to limit growth to this medium projection. Needs are estimated by country and method for 1990, 1995 and 2000, for medium, high, and low population projections. The number of contraceptive users required to reach replacement fertility is also calculated. Results are based upon the number of women aged 15-49, percent married, number married ages 15-49, and the proportion of couples using contraception. Estimation methodology is discussed in detail. Estimated users of respective methods in millions are 150 sterilizations, 333 IUD insertions, 663 injections, 7,589 cycles of pills, and 30,000 condoms. Estimated commodity costs will grow from $399 million in 1990 to $627 million in 2000, for a total $5.1 billion over the period. Pills will be the most expensive at $1.9 billion, followed by sterilizations at $1.4 billion, condoms $888 million, injectables $594 million, and IUDs $278 million. Estimated costs for commodities purchased in the U.S. show IUDs and condoms to be significantly more expensive, but pills as cheaper. With donors paying for approximately 25% of public sector commodity costs, developing country governments will need to pay $4.2 billion of total costs in the absence of increased commercial/private sector and donor support.
In: UNFPA: 1986 report, [by] United Nations Fund for Population Activities. New York, New York, UNFPA, 1987. 6-31.The implications of population growth and prospects for the future are examined in a 1987 UNFPA report on the state of world population. Demographic patterns in developed and developing countries are compared, as well as life expectancy and mortality rates. Although most countries have passed the stage of maximum growth, Africa's growth rate continues to increase. Changes in world population size are accompanied by population distribution and agricultural productivity changes. On an individual level, the fate of Baby 5 Billion is examined based on population trajectories for a developing country (Kenya, country A), and a developed country of approximately the same size (Korea, country B). The report outlines the hazards that Baby 5 Billion would face in a developing country and explains the better opportunities available in country B. Baby 5 Billion is followed through adolescence and adulthood. Whether the attainment of 5 billion in population is a threat or a triumph is questioned. Several arguments propounding the beneficial social, economic, and environmental effects of unchecked population growth are refuted. In addition, evidence of the serious consequences of deforestation and species extinction is presented. The report concludes with an explanation of the developmental, health and economic benefits of vigorous population control policies, especially in developing countries.
People. 1981; 8(2):26.The slowed down world population growth rate masks the magnitude of the net population increase. This warning comes in the new set of population projections prepared by the United Nations Population Division in 1980. These estimates, submitted to the 21st session of the Population Commission in January, indicate that the annual rate of growth of the world population had declined from 2% about 15 years ago to 1.7% and may decline to 1.5% by the end of the century. The world population has increased by 1.9 billion in the last 3 decades; 2.6 billion people are expected to be added in the coming 3 decades, bring the world population to 7 billion by 2010. About nine-tenths of the annual increase is having to be absorbed in the developing countries, despite a substantial decline in the birth rate of 41/1000 in 1960-65 to 32/1000 at present. Most of the decline has occurred in China and in several Asian and Latin American countries. Little or no decline is yet apparent in South Asia and Africa. By 1978 only 7 out of 24 Western developed countries had fertility rates above the replacement level. The UN Population Division's analyses of government policies in 165 countries show that 84 governments consider fertility levels in their countries to be satisfactory, 22 too low and 59 too high. 17 governments have policies to increase fertility and 39 to reduce it.
IPPF Europe Regional Information Bulletin 8(1):2-4. January 1979.A German-speaking subregional working group meeting convened by the IPPF Europe Region in October 1978 discussed planned parenthood in low-birth-rate countries. 3 features characterize current fertility behavior in Europe: 1) a trend toward 2-child families; 2) early marriage (average age 23), with fertility confined to the 1st 6 years of marriage and longer birth intervals; and 3) marital fertility as the main birth rate determinant. Regional, social, and political fertility differences are diminishing. It is doubtful that material incentives to have children (e.g., financial assistance, maternity leaves, credit) are effective in the long term. While a connection is often made between the number of women workers and decreased fertility, it is the form rather than the proportion of women in employment that has changed. Even if women returned to the home, desired family size would not necessarily increase. More research is needed on the fertility effect of living accommodations. The meeting adopted 5 standpoints: 1) attempts to use social, economic, or political grounds to restrict people's ability to freely determine family size violate basic human rights; 2) family size decisions are influenced by a series of personal and social factors, with planned parenthood information and methods having no direct influence; 3) the role of planned parenthood is to subject the timing and frequency of births to self-determined planned action; 4) demographic trends should be analyzed so deficiencies in social and family policies noted can be corrected; and 5) planned parenthood cannot be used in the service of political action to decrease or increase population.
Forum 1(2):23-24. October 1978.Early results of the World Fertility Survey indicate trends toward slower worldwide population growth and reduced fertility. Since 1960, birth rates have decreased about 15% in the majority of countries in the developing world. Although the population should increase by 1.8 billion by the year 2000, fertility is declining in small, highly populated areas as well as larger countries. Even though population growth appears to be slowing, certain cities such as Mexico City, Lagos, Cairo, and Tokyo-Yokohoma are projected to grow to extraordinary size. Population policies to deter growth in these areas should be a basic factor in formulating plans for national development. The continued and rapid increase in fertility which peaked in the seventies appears, based on statistics from 70 nations, to be levelling off and should result in a zero population growth rate around 2075.
In: Thomlinson, R. Demographic problems: controversy over population control. 2nd edition. Encino, California, Dickenson, 1975. p. 215-234The family planning movement has become widely accepted and noncontr oversial throughout the world. International organizations who work in the field, e.g., the U.N. and the International Planned Parenthood Federation and its 79 national affiliates, are mentioned. Some developed nations are offering family planning aid to less developed countries. National family planning programs, their structures and achi evement, in India, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States are discussed. There is controversy over whether such programs should involve coercion or free choice. There is a difference of opinion over whether such programs are actually succeeding. Fertility reduction in most developed countries was achieved through individual decision and effort, not through governmental programs. Without motivation and without adherence to a small family norm, zero growth will never be achieved in most countries under present programs.
San Francisco, California, Sierra Club, 1982 Jan. 153 p.Designed for environmental and community activists who want to understand population projections, this handbook provides information on the following: ways of talking about population, i.e., censuses, estimates, forecasts, projections, and predictions; evaluating projections; policy debates; projections and wastewater--a case study of federal projections policy, types of population projections (projection methodologies, i.e., extrapolation, land use models, demographic models, econometric models, and ratio methods; geographic scope of projections; subject of projections; short-term and long-term projections; dissaggregating projections; and special information and ad hoc adjustments); how projections are developed (fertility, mortality, migration to the US and within the country, projections and policy, and zero population growth and determining if it has been reached); common errors; and the cast of characters (government agencies that prepare national or subnational projections, private groups that prepare projections, other groups active in the politics of projections, and regular publications and newsletters). Recently, the "politics of population projections" has intensified considerably, with more local governments and interest groups recognizing the power of projections. It is this handbook's goal to facilitate an individual's participation in these local and state debates. The basic idea of a projection done by extrapolation is the assumtpion that a trend in the past will continue into the future. 2 common types of extrapolations are the linear and the exponential. When examining a region for which data on land parcels is available, zoning and the current rate and types of housing construction can be used to projct the number of households. The demographic model breaks population growth into components of fertility, mortality, and migration, and further breaks down fertility and mortality by age, and migration into immigration and emigration. Econometric models of population change are predicated upon a presumed relationship between job availability and migration to or from an area. Ratio methods are frequently used to project population for areas lacking adequate data for using other methods. Projections for the world and for individual countries are prepared by the UN, by academic demographers, and by individual governments. In the US, projections for the world, for countries (including the US, and for individual states) are prepared by subunits of the Bureau of the Census.