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CONTRACEPTION. 1996 Jan; 53(1):1-7.In the year 2000, world population will exceed 6200 million and life expectancy will be over 68 years. The UN population projections for the coming 20 years after 1996 range from a low of 7100 million to a high of 7800 million. Between 1950 and 1992, in developing countries, life expectancy at birth increased by 29 years in China, by 24 years in India and Indonesia, by 21 years in Bangladesh, and by 16 years in Brazil. The gender difference in life expectancy is only 1 year in India, but 6 years in a number of developed countries. Corresponding increases in Australia were from 12.2 to 14.7 years for men and from 14.9 to 18.8 years for women. By the year 2025, the UN projects that the elderly (65 years and older) will constitute 10% of the population in Asia and more than 20% in North America and Europe, whereas 1.8% of the population of Asia, 4.6% of North America, and 6.4% of Europe will be very old (80 years and older). By the year 2030, there may be 1200 million postmenopausal women around the world, 76% of them in the developing countries. During the period 1990-2025 the elderly population of Sweden will increase by 33%, whereas that of Indonesia will increase by 414%. Between 2000 and 2100, the global population aged 15 years or younger will gradually decrease from 31.4% to 18.3%, while the population aged 65 and over will increase from 6.8% to 21.6%. The persistence of poverty in developing countries combined with aging poses a formidable challenge because the majority of old people receive little special support. The epidemiological dimension of aging embraces mortality and morbidity. Each year 39 million people die in the developing world mainly from infectious and parasitic diseases, noncommunicable and communicable diseases, and injuries. In the developed countries 11 million die primarily from cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms. In the developing countries noncommunicable diseases represent 87% of the disease burden resulting in increased isolation of the elderly. The ethical dilemma facing health care is poverty among the elderly.
BULLETIN OF THE INTERNATIONAL UNION AGAINST TUBERCULOSIS AND LUNG DISEASE. 1990 Dec; 65(4):75.WHO estimates of pediatric AIDS cases are 400,000 by September 1990, not including 300,000 who have already died. WHO projects that 10 million or more infants and children will have HIV infections by 2000, in addition to 25-30 million adults. The primary mode of transmission in most countries is heterosexual contact, resulting in a rapidly increasing prevalence in women of childbearing age. WHO predicts that pediatric AIDS will be a major, and in some countries the predominant, cause of death in children in the 1990s. Even though child survival programs have made progress recently, by immunization and diarrhea control, the fruits of these efforts are expected to be reversed. The world's cumulative total of HIV infected women is about 3 million. In the U.S., 20,000 infants have been born to infected mothers. In contrast, in Eastern Europe, about 1000 children are infected, mostly from unscreened blood transfusions and unsterilized needles and syringes. The impact of childhood AIDS is expected to be an increase in child mortality by 50% in many developing countries. Serious social repercussions for children also stem from projected 10 million uninfected children orphaned by AIDS, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. The only way to lessen this tragedy is for people to protect themselves by practicing safe sex and having sexually transmitted diseases treated.