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Fertility trends and prospects in East and South-East Asian countries and implications for policies and programmes.
POPULATION RESEARCH LEADS. 1991; (39):1-17.Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
In: Aspects of population change and development in some African and Asian countries. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1984. 43-56. (CDC Research Monograph Series no. 9)This paper examines the relationship between economic development and demographic change in the 13 states of the Economic Commission for West Asia (ECWA) region. Demographic variables considered include per capita income, proportion urban, proportion in urban areas with over 100,000 inhabitants, literacy among those over 15 years, and literacy among women. Unweighted rankings on these variables were added to produce a development ranking or general development index. Then this index was used to investigate the relationship between development and individual scores and rankings for various demographic indices. The development index exhibited a rough fit with the mortality indices, especially life expectancy at birth. Mortality decline appears to be most closely related to rise in income. At the same income level, countries that have experienced substantial social change tend to exhibit the lowest mortality, presumably because of a loosening in family role patterns. In contrast, the relationship between development and fertility measures seemed to be almost random. A far closer correlation was noted between the former and the general development index. It is concluded that economic development alone will not reduce fertility. Needed are 2 changes: 1) profound social change in the family and in women's status, achievable through increases in female education, and 2) government family planning programs to ensure access to contraception.
In: Quantitative approaches to analyzing socioeconomic determinants of Third World fertility trends: reviews of the literature. Project final report: overview, by Indiana University Fertility Determinants Group, George J. Stolnitz, director. [Unpublished] 1984. 79-91.Simple no-work/work distinctions are an unreliable basis for estimating causal linkages connecting female employment/work-status patterns to fertility. World Fertility Survey (WFS) data show about 3/4, 1/2, and 1/4 child differentials for over 20, 10-19, and under 10 years marital duration grouss respectively, for women employed since marriage. Effects on marriage seem strongest in Latin America and weakest in Asia. Controlling for age, marital duration, urban-rural residence, education, and husband's work status. But from the results of a number of WFS and other studies, it seems relationships of work status and fertility are difficult to confirm beyond directional indications, even in Latin America. A UN study using proximate determinants such as contraception and work status including a housework category indicated differentials in contraceptive practice were not significant net of control for education. Philippine data indicates low-income employment might increase fertility by decreasing breastfeeding, while WFS data from 5 Asian countries indicated pre-marital work encourages increased marriage age, without being specific about effects. Also, female employment must affect a large population to have a real impact on aggregate fertility, since female labor force activity is likely to change slowly if at all. Data presently available do not cover micro-level factors that may be important, such as effects of work on breastfeeding, nor do they lend themselves to examination by multi-equation analysis. More work is needed to isolate effects of work-status attributes like male employment, and to analyze intra-cohort mid-course fertility objective changes, as well as new theoretical process models such as competing time use and maternal role incompatibility.