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Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
POPULATION HEADLINERS. 1996 May-Jun; (252):2.Dr. Tim Dyson, professor of Population Studies at the London School of Economics, in his book entitled "Population and Food -- Global Trends and Future Prospects," claims the world will be able to feed its rapidly expanding population in 25 years, if fertilizer use doubles and world trade grows rapidly. He bases this conclusion on population, grain trade, and production data from UN sources and on the assumption that the world population is expanding at the rate of 1 billion people every 12 years. His prediction that several world regions will have great difficulty producing enough food to meet the demands of growing populations is more optimistic than that of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, which believes a world disaster is impending. FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf, while speaking at the opening session of the FAO Asia and the Pacific regional conference at Apia, Samoa, stated that "extremely violent and serious conflict" was possible if food security was not improved. He said that the prime responsibility of the FAO was to alert world opinion and world leaders to the food situation: although world population has grown substantially per capita, arable land continues to diminish; current modes of exploitation are degrading the environment; fishery resources are over-exploited; and the current distribution of food is skewed.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1995 Jun; 21(2):351-9.In 1793 Condorcet wrote to scientists about the important effect of wasteful consumption, the need to improve energy efficiency, and the usefulness of recycling. Malthusian notions of the natural laws of population continue to create scientific and literary controversy. Godwin's reply to Malthus in 1820 suggests a sustainable population limit of 9000 million. The 1993 World Population Science Summit held in New Delhi set a potential limit of 10 billion in 2050. Condorcet and Godwin believed man to be capable of reasoning about future population growth and responsible for constructing scientific tables of mortality. Summit papers by Nathan Keyfitz and Kerstin Lindahl-Kiessling support an overlooked Malthusian belief that futurists would plan for the balance between future growth and natural resources. The Summit papers are environmental Malthusianism, proposing that severe environmental damage will result if the consumption of poorer countries increases to the level of consumption in developed countries. The Summit papers also suggest that population increase is the key agent affecting local and regional environmental degradation. The number of migrants and refugees is expected to increase and to result in civil strife. Worldwide patterns are not described very well in the Summit papers. Natural scientific findings are disappointing. Individual fertility decisions have social consequences. Godwin and Hazlitt differ from Malthus in crediting political institutions as the cause of food shortages and overcrowding. Another Malthus critic, George Ensor, believed that fertility was controlled by intelligence and self-interest. Hazlitt, Godwin, and Ensor focused on the role of political institutions in affecting fertility decisions. The Summit papers neglect the role of political institutions but adhere to Condorcet's ideal of a universal union of sciences concerned with fertility, energy conservation, and responsibility to future populations.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1995 Jun; 21(2):341-9.It is difficult for social scientists to maintain an academic position on the consequences of population growth against religious or political agendas. Reform lacks both imagination, relevance, and specificity. Reform should give priority in Africa to very real issues, such as widespread tribalism, political corruption, and the lack of decent quality schooling for children, rather than to high birth or AIDS-related death rates. In other parts of the world reform should involve defining how many workers are needed for support of children and the elderly with dignity. Crises force technological solutions to man-made practices affecting, for instance, ozone depletion. The published papers of the 1993 Population Science Summit in New Delhi address a variety of issues about the relationship between population, natural resources, and the environment. This article discusses some of the issues presented in the published papers: the planning framework, reform as a subjective or epistemic system rather than an objective or ontologic system, and doomsday scenarios. The Summit planning framework recognizes that population growth is too high, that solutions involve zero population growth, and an increased standard of living with equality for men and women is desired. The 25 papers by 32 authors focus on the urgency of the population problem, resource use, demographic transition in a gender perspective, family planning and reproductive health, and future policy needs. Demographers and intellectuals confuse value commitment to slowing population growth with objective scientific argument. The Summit papers are subjective and a reflection of beliefs and opinions rather than scientific findings. Few recognize that later in life Malthus considered gluts or oversupplies of materials the cause for doom. Environmentalists posit shortages as a critical problem, while instability in civil society and the level of general poverty are much more pervasive and serious.
Population and development. Background paper for the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September 1994.
Copenhagen, Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida, 1994. , 63 p.This report identifies and discusses the central issues, problems, and contradictions in the population debate in order to provide background information for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and a basis for the development of Denmark's population policy. The introduction describes the 2 basic contradicting indicators of the unprecedented global annual growth rate of 93 million people and the equally unprecedented rapid decline in the total fertility rate in developing countries (from 6 in 1950 to 3.6 today). The next section deals with the links between population and development, including the risk of demographic traps and production and consumption traps. 6 major trends in population and sustainability are explored in terms of regional and national differences. Contradictions and myths in the population/development debate are then discussed. The third section of the report presents the demographic context including a short overview of population theories, the most recent global demographic projections, and the most important fertility determinants (infant and child mortality, the status of women, and the quality of services). Section 4 provides a discussion of the different approaches and rationales for the establishment of global and various national population policies and family planning (FP) programs. The final section is concerned with the transition from FP to sexual and reproductive health and rights. This discussion covers the role of vertical FP programs, integrated maternal-child health and FP services, and the transition to more comprehensive reproductive health services. Sexual and reproductive health is then considered within the gender framework and from a human rights perspective. Charts with data on population projections, the prevalence of contraceptive use in developing countries, and the total fertility rate since 1960 are appended.
Synthesis of the expert group meetings convened as part of the substantive preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):3-18.As part of the preparation for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development to be sponsored by the UN in Cairo, 6 expert groups were convened to consider 1) population growth; 2) population policies and programs; 3) population, development, and the environment; 4) migration; 5) the status of women; and 6) family planning programs, health, and family well-being. Each group included 15 experts representing a full range of relevant scientific disciplines and geographic regions. Each meeting lasted 5 days and included a substantive background paper prepared by the Population Division as well as technical papers. Each meeting concluded with the drafting of between 18 and 37 recommendations (a total of 162). The meeting on population, the environment, and development focused on the implications of current trends in population and the environment for sustained economic growth and sustainable development. The meeting on population policies and programs observed that, since 1984, there has been a growing convergence of views about population growth among the nations of the world and that the stabilization of world population as soon as possible is now an internationally recognized goal. The group on population and women identified practical steps that agencies could take to empower women in order to achieve beneficial effects on health, population trends, and development. The meeting on FP, health, and family well-being reviewed policy-oriented issues emerging from the experience of FP programs. The meeting on population growth and development reviewed trends and prospects of population growth and age structure and their consequences for global sustainability. The population distribution and migration experts appraised current trends and their interrelationship with development. In nearly all of the group meetings, common issues emerged. Concern was universally voiced for sustainable development and sustained economic growth, relevance of past experience, human rights, the status of women, the family, accessibility and quality of services, the special needs of subpopulations, AIDS, the roles of governments and nongovernmental organizations, community participation, research and data collection, and international cooperation.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):102-19.As part of the preparation for the forth-coming UN International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met in Paris, France, in November 1992 to discuss population growth and demographic structure. As part of the demographic background for the meeting provided by the UN Population Division, participants were informed that although the world population growth rate began to decline in the late 1970s, this decline has not yet resulted in declining absolute numbers, and the annual increment to the world population was not expected to decline to the level that existed in 1985 until the period 2020-25. World population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.3 billion in 1990. The medium variant population projection of the UN shows world population at 6.3 billion in 2000 and 8.5 billion in 2025 (the high variant shows 9.4 billion in 2025 and the low variant shows 7.6 billion). Population aging is expected to reach unparalleled levels in 2010-20. The meeting then considered the topics of population growth and socioeconomic development, confronting poverty in developing countries, demographic impacts of development patterns, demographic and health transitions, population growth and employment, social change and the elderly in developing countries, and social development and ageing in developed countries, The expert group meeting then prepared 19 recommendations aimed at governments, social institutions, and the international community. The recommendations call for political commitment to human resources development and population and development programs, especially in least developed countries, alleviation of poverty and social inequality, and equality of access to social and health resources that will lead to reduced mortality and fertility. Governments are urged to place a high priority on education and on increasing women's access to education and to remove barriers to economic independence for women. Health-sector priorities should be reassessed to provide the most cost-effective and efficient means of providing health care, reproductive health-care programs should receive high priority, and efforts should be made to minimize the effects of HIV infection and reduce the spread of AIDS. The needs of the elderly should be met with a "safety net," which should be developed in countries with no social security programs. The elderly should be recognized as an important human resource for development, and intergenerational equity should exist to accommodate their needs, with special efforts made to help them remain in their own homes and communities. Governments should collect accurate, comprehensive, and regular data on population characteristics and trends, and the international community should facilitate the comparative analysis of such data. Training should be provided to professionals in demography and related fields in developing countries.
[Social preconditions of founding and developing the family planning movement] Drustveni preduslovi osnivanja i razvoja pokreta planiranja porodice u svetu.
STANOVNISTVO. 1991 Jan-Jun; 18-19(1-2):245-67.Family planning, as a broader social movement, is of a recent date, although biological reproduction, as part of social reproduction, has been in the focus of human interest since the beginning of the human race. The great thinkers of the past have endeavored to find a connection between social trends and the population movement. Thus, they shaped population theories which, in the earlier stages of social development, were primarily an integral part of the economic approach towards social development. Contrary to the belief that population problems have received attention only in recent research, it has been demonstrated historically that these have attracted the attention of the great thinkers in the course of the development of human thought. Development of family planning, in its modern sense, shows that it had usually been considered as a remedy for overpopulation until the UN proclaimed it one of the basic human rights in 1966. Primary accumulation in England, implying accelerated growth of an army of the unemployed, is part of the core of the current family planning concept, the cradle of family planning in its modern sense. The Malthusian League which accepted Malthus's economic doctrine on population was founded in 1877. Reaction to their activities came at the very beginning from an ever-increasing revolutionary stream of the socialist movement. Socialist-oriented working class leaders pronounced an anathema on the Malthusian League's doctrine segments of the English society. The Neo-Malthusian leagues were founded in some European countries, but they were particularly strong in Denmark and Holland; later on, they emerged in the Far East as well. The Malthusian League held its last conference on its 50th anniversary in 1927. The First International Conference on Planned Parenthood was held in Stockholm in August 1946. "Each child has the right to be wanted by both parents and all parents have the right to decide on the number of children to be born..." is the basic message of this Conference. At this Conference, the First International Committee was established. The International Conference on Family Planning prepared by the International Committee for Family Planning, together with the National Organization for Family Planning in India, was held in Bombay in 1952. Thus, the International Planned Parenthood Federation was "born". (author's modified) (summaries in SCR. ENG)
The evolution of policy on fertility in Tanzania: drawing on, and influence of international experience.
In: Population policy in Sub-Saharan Africa: drawing on international experience. Papers presented at the seminar organized by the IUSSP Committee on Policy and Population, in Kinshasa, Zaire, 27 February - 2 March 1989 / Echanges d'experiences internationales en matiere de politique de population en Afrique au Sud du Sahara. Communications presentees au seminaire organise par la Commission des Politiques Demographiques de l'UIESP, a Kinshasa, Zaire, 27 fevrier - 2 mars 1989. Liege, Belgium, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], 1989. 333-60.The idea of adoption of population policies globally was associated with the unprecedented high population growth rates of over 2.5%/annum in most underdeveloped countries after World War II. The goal of Tanzania's population policy is to facilitate economic recovery. The policy, rooted in the Coale-Hoover model, is not viable because of the unrealistic assumptions of the model: 1) internal and international economic structures are not conducive to savings and their translation into investments; 2) old-age structures resulting from fertility decline do not bode well for a labor-intensive economy like that of Tanzania if economic expansion has to take place; and 3) no clear and consistent relationship between population and economic growth has been empirically observed. The evolution of population policy in Tanzania went through 2 significant phases: 1) opposition to family planning which was a spontaneous response to problems of socioeconomic development including maternal and child health and rural-urban migration; 2) the change toward working for an explicit population policy with central focus on reduction of population growth rate and fertility limitation. Since the mid-1980s efforts were exerted to reduce the population growth rate from the 1967-78 estimate of an annual 3.2-2.5% by reducing the total fertility rate from about 7.0 to 4.0. From the start of the new phase, a UN Population Fund project, executed by the International Labor Organization, was established in the Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and Planning to organize a Population Planning Unit. The main activities of the project have been population awareness seminars and coordination of the activities of the National Population Committee that drew up proposals on population problems.
[The controversies over population growth and economic development] Die Kontroversen um Bevolkerungswachstum und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung.
In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of, Springer-Verlag, 1988. 19-35.This paper presents a broad review of the major theoretical and political viewpoints concerning population growth and economic development. The western nations represent one side of the controversy; based on their experience with population growth in their former colonies, the western countries attempted to accelerate development by means of population control. The underlying economic reason for this approach is that excess births interfere with public and private savings and thus reduce the amount of capital available for development investment. A parallel assumption on the social side is that families had more children than they actually desired and that it was only proper to furnish families with contraceptives in order to control unwanted pregnancies. The competing point of view maintains that forcing the pace of development would unleash productive forces and stimulate better distribution of wealth by increasing social pressures on governments. The author traces the interaction between these two viewpoints and shows how the Treaty of Bucharest in 1974 marked a compromise between the two population policies and formed the basis for the activities of the population agencies of UN. The author then considers the question of whether European development can serve as a model for the present day 3rd World. The large differences between the sizes of age cohorts and the pressure that these differences exert upon internal population movements and the availability of food and housing is more important than the raw numbers alone.
State-society links: political dimensions of population policies and programs, with special reference to China.
New York, New York, Population Council, 1990. 36 p. (Research Division Working Papers No. 18)This paper attempts to reveal the political nature of population policies and programs. The first step to understanding this is to classify states by strength. The greatest predictive power can be achieved by looking at the political theories in terms of sociopolitical structures and processes. The argument goes that if societal forces can effect policy in a strong state, then they can most certainly do so in a weak one. In fact the effect should be greater in the weaker states touching everything from policy content, goals and program implementation and outcomes to policy initiation and even the ability to formulate a population policy. China is a strong state, India is a soft state, countries of sub-Saharan Africa are soft-soft states. However state strength may not lead directly to program success. In China a strong policy backfired and caused a political backlash. It eventually turned around, but reached its goal in an inverted "U" rather than a straight line. A state-society point of view on population policies and programs does lack in one important way: it does not take into account international agents who fund, advise and research. It is these agents form outside that can have a profound effect on this relationship. The author's final point is that the relation of the state and society must be further studied, keeping in mind that outside forces can sometime put a spin on the results.
[Population policy and family planning in the third world] Bevolkerungspolitik und Familienplanung in der Dritten Welt.
In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of, Springer-Verlag, 1988. 274-95.Beginning with the observation that the idea of the 3rd World is an artificial creation of western development economists, the author analyses the effects of family policy goals and processes toward the improvement of welfare and opportunities for children and mothers in African, Asian and South American countries and particularly the effects of programs aimed at decreasing fertility. He points out that two opposing points of view have dominated the development of family planning policies: "Development is the best pill" implies that when a country has become economically developed to European standards that fertility will decrease of its own accord; the opposing view: "No development without a pill" holds that economic development and modernization cannot take place without prior control of the rate of population growth. The author reviews UN General Assembly resolutions concerning the fundamental human right to development and sketches the background of UN actions based on that assertion. The author then traces the historical roots of community-based family planning from early times to more recent times, marked by national drives to limit the number of conceptions. He presents statistics on government policies regarding family planning, the populations affected by those policies and the demographic situations under which these policies operate. He itemizes the ethical issues involved in government and organizational activities in family planning and includes many examples of government activities in developing countries in which these principles have been involved.
Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe.
ZIMBABWE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS. 1988 Jan; 2(1):81-100.Conventional wisdom, as reflected in reports by the World Bank and the Whitsun Foundation, maintains that control of population growth is the key strategy for stimulating socioeconomic development and ending widespread poverty. The Witsun Foundation has criticized the Government of Zimbabwe for failing to include specific policies for population control in its National Transitional Development Plan. the report further expressed alarm about future availability of land to contain Zimbabwe's growing population. Communal areas are designed for a maximum of 325,000 families yet presently contain 700-800,000 families. This Malthusian, deterministic emphasis on population growth as the source of social ills ignores the broader, complex set of socioeconomic, historical, and political factors that determine material life. Any analysis of population that fails to consider the class structure of society, the type of division of labor, and forms of property and production can produce only meaningless abstractions. For example, consideration of crowding in communal areas must include consideration of inequitable patterns of land ownership in sub-Saharan Africa. Unemployment must be viewed within the context of a capitalist economic structure that relies on an industrial reserve army of labor to ensure acceptance of low wages and labor-intensive conditions. While it is accepted that population growth is creating specific and real problems in Zimbabwe and other African countries, these problems could be ameliorated by land reform and restructuring of the export-oriented colonial economies. Similarly, birth control should not be promoted as the solution to social problems, yet family planning services should be available to raise the status of women. Literacy, agrarian reform, agricultural modernization, and industrialization campaigns free from the dominance of Western capitalism represent the true solutions to Zimbabwe's problems.
[The Church, the Family and Responsible Parenthood in Latin America: a Meeting of experts] Iglesia, Familia y Paternidad Responsable en America Latina: Encuentro de Expertos.
Bogota, Colombia, CELAM, 1977. (Documento CELAM No. 32.)This document is the result of a meeting organized by the Department of the Laity of the Latin American Episcopal Council on the theme of the Church, Family, and Responsible Parenthood. 18 Latin American experts in various disciplines were selected on the basis of professional competence and the correctness of their philosophical and theological positions in the eyes of the Catholic Church to study the problem of responsible parenthood in Latin America and to recommend lines of action for a true family ministry in this area. The work consists of 2 major parts: 12 presentations concerning the sociodemographic, philosophical-theological, psychophysiological, and educational aspects of responsible parenthood, and conclusions based on the work and the meetings. The 4 articles on sociodemographic aspects discuss the demographic problem in Latin America, Latin America and the demographic question in the Conference of Bucharest, maturity of faith in Christ expressed in responsible parenthood, and social conditions of responsible parenthood in Peruvian squatter settlements. The 3 articles on philosophical and theological aspects concern conceptual foundations of neomalthusian theory, pastoral attitudes in relation to responsible parenthood, and pastoral action regarding responsible parenthood. 2 articles on psychophysiological aspects discuss the couple and methods of fertility regulation and the gynecologist as an advisor on psychosexual problems of reproduction. Educational aspects are discussed in 3 articles on sexual pathology and education, education for responsible parenthood, and the Misereor-Carvajal Program of Family Action in Cali, Colombia. The conclusions are the result of an interdisciplinary effort to synthesize the major points of discussion and agreements on principles and actions arrived at in each of the 4 areas.
POPULI. 1987; 14(1):39-47.This reevaluation of the demographic transition theory of Notestein (1945) presents a view of developing countries trapped in the 2nd stage and unable to achieve the economic and social gains counted upon to reduce births. Among the half of the world's countries that have not yet reached the demographic transition, 5 regions have growth rates of 2.2% or more yearly, or 20-fold per century, a are unable to prevent declining living standards and deteriorating ecological life-support systems. These are Southeast Asia (except Japan, China, and possibly Thailand and Indonesia), Latin America, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and Africa. In these countries, death rates will begin to rise, reversing the process of demographic transition. Examples of this phenomenon include 7 countries in West Africa with deteriorating agricultural and fuelwood yields, such that a World Bank study concluded that desertification is inevitable without a technological breakthrough. The elements of the life-support system, food, water, fuelwood and forests, are interrelated, and their failure will create "ecological refugees." When economic resources of jobs and income are added to biological resources, conflict and social instability will further hamper implementation of sound population policies. For the 1st time, governments are faced with the task of reducing birth rates as living conditions deteriorate, a challenge requiring new approaches. There are examples, such as China, where broad-based, inexpensive health care systems and well-designed family planning programs have encouraged small families without widespread economic gains. The most needed ingredient is leadership.
Human rights, population ethics and the Third World: sources of moral conflict in international population policies.
Madison, Wisconsin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Center for Demography and Ecology, 1987. 47,  p. (CDE Working Paper 87-10)This philosophical essay considers the basis of moral issues inherent in national and international population policies, largely based on U.N. texts. The basic definition of any moral stance on population policy depends on 1) how the problem is defined; 2) the nature of the feasible alternative courses of action proposed to resolve the problem; and 3) how the proposed actions will affect people's lives and property, broadly defined. Questions of cost versus benefit, ends and means, distributive justice and individual versus the commonality then arise. A brief history of the current world population situation is given. The development of the world's political understanding of the population problem, and the recent U.S. policy responses follow. A majority of the most populous and rapidly growing nations admit to their growth statistics and have instituted population policies. There are several distinct ideological groups that reject the notion of a population crisis, notably Marxists, Catholics, conservative political economists and some radical feminists. Certain middle-of-the-road theorists believe that the moderate population problem will resolve itself once the socioeconomic structure is developed. Resolution of moral dilemmas resulting from alternative visions of the population "problem" or "crisis" usually takes the form of a discussion of human rights. U.N. pronouncements on this issue have evolved from silence to the current view that each family has the right to knowledge and means to space and limit family size. A UNESCO publication even extends and specifies this right as the domain of the woman of the family. The rights of future generations are implicit in population ethics, but these are not articulated in the literature. Finally, UN texts imply rights of each nation (but not necessarily of actual national or ethnic groups within nations) to specify population policy. It should be appreciated that most of the non-western world does not have a tradition of individual rights, but rather communal rights. Most of the UN statements are based on European values. Simply to invoke the concept of "basic human rights" does not resolve moral issues.
LABOUR AND POPULATION ACTIVITES IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC. 1987 Mar; (27):2-4.The fertility transition in Thailand has been quite dramatic by cross-national standards. There is evidence that the family planning program has played a significant role in the transition, but it is less known to what extent socioeconomic development per se has contributed to the process. There is a growing consensus among population and development professionals that, given an already high contraceptive prevalence rate, the family planning program can not be expected to continue its past contribution to the transition. The long-range objective of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) is to contribute to more effective development policy and planning in Thailand by helping to enhance the capacity of relevant government agencies toward integrating population and human resources factors in development planning. Some of the strategies discussed for the project are: 1) preparatory activities, 2) coordination, 3) functional-awareness raising, 4) policy synthesis and research, 5) training programs, 6) information systems, and 7) research dissemination.
Demography India. 1984 Jan-Dec; 13(1-2):153-67.The threshold hypothesis shares with transition theory the basic assumption that a decline in fertility is interrelated with a decline in mortality and change in the social, economic, and cultural conditions of the population. However, threshold theory fails to formulate a causal chain between fertility and the other variables and its application at the aggregate country level is limited by intracountry heterogeneity in cultural and social variables. Problematic is the fixing of the timing for a country of a decline in fertility to be inferred from the fact that some indicators of development have reached the threshold zone while others have not. This paper attempts to develope a combined index for socioeconomic development on the basis of data from 12 countries of the ESCAP region of South East Asia. Variables included were life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate, adult female literacy, percentages of females economically active, GNP per capita, and percentage urban population. In 1970, 3 of the countries analyzed had a crude birth rate below 25, 6 countries had a rate between 25-40, and 3 had a rate above 40. The lowest value of the index recorded for countries of low fertility (crude birth rate below 25) and the highest value recorded for countries of high fertility (above 40) are taken as the threshold zones for the overall index. The number of countries in the threshold range increased from 5 in 1970 to 8 in 1975. With the increase in the index value, a reduction in the fertility level was noted. In contrast, where socioeconomic development was slow, fertility showed little change. Policy makers could use this system to assess which indicator could be pushed through to raise the overall index of development so as to effect a decline in fertility.
World Resources Institute Journal. 1985; 5-16.In Mexico City, the 2nd Population Corference emphasized the inextricable links between population, resources, environment and development and the need to integrate population and development programs. Essential points included in the core of the consensus enunciated in Mexico City are summarized. The US position at the Conference emphasized that population goals and policies must be considered not as ends in themselves but in the context of social and economic strategies designed to enhance the human conditions in a manner consistent with basic values. The US statement maintained that effective voluntary family planning programs will result in substantial declines in family size only to the extent that development changes the economic motivation and parents' desire for large families. This position evolved however after considerable pressure on the Reagan administration. The administration's initial position, considerable elements of which remain in the US policy statement, had quite a different emphasis. Its argument is summarized and criticized on the grounds that it is remarkably insensitive to the facts, especially in its assertion that the rise of economic statism in the developing countries after World War II constrained economic growth and thus created population problems. Rapid demograpphic transition in low income countries requires not only social and economic change that is broadly shared, but also vigorous governement population policies. The policies and programs put forward by consensus at Mexico City cannot be regarded as short-term ameliorative efforts. They require radical changes in development strategies to broaden access to education, health services, employment opportunities, and other basic needs. For the governemnt of the US to minimize the importance of rapid and widespread implementation of the policies adopted by consensus at Mexico City would be a disservice to the US and to the rest of the world. Population policies and programs and sound economic policies support one another, and all are essential for successful development.
Population and Development Review. 1984; 10(2):353-9.Thise comments and remarks were fomulated in 1974 during a panel discussion which was part of the program for the Population Tribune, a nongovernmental meeting, organized in parallel with the 1st UN World Population Conference at Bucharest. The panelists discussed the ways in which they expected the deliberations of a similarly conceived international conference, taking place 10 years after Bucharest, would differ from those of the 1974 meeting. The author prefaces his comments by clarifying his own position: population change is nnot the determinant of economic and social development. 5 major differences between the future policy debates and those at Bucharest are identified, explored and critically judged. The next Conference's deliberations will be characterised by a greatly increased understanding and appreciation of what its topic is supposed to be, of what the population problem really is and of what population policy is about. The author argues that the present conference did not deal with these issues in a satisfactory fashion. He maintains that there has been a failure to identify the structure of the population problem: an inconsistency between collective and individual interest. The principle to be adopted by governments is to analyze their own situation, identify their problems and act according to their best interest. The principles are the same whether a country is developed or developing. A 2nd major difference will be an increased understanding and appreciation that population policies should be guided by a search for improvement and optimization. A 3rd important difference will be increased demographic sophistication of the participants, to overcome the mechanistic and naive interpretation of the development-fertility link. A 4th difference is the expectation that, by 1984, the economic sophistication in discussing problems of development will have been greatly increased, which will facilitate constructive discussions of economic-demographic interrelations. A final change expected for 1984 would manifest itself in a calmer yet more helpful stance of the developed countries with respect to the developing world in demographic matters. Ultimately, the solutions must be local, rather than global.
[Geography of population: an international perspective] La geographie de la population: une vue internationale.
Espace, Populations, Societes. 1984; 2:59-63.Population geographers throughout the world have been influenced by a series of factors, including the extraordinary diversity of patterns of demographic transition throughout the world. Although the classic model of transition associated with modernization facilitated understanding, especially in Western countries, there have been so many exceptions that the model has only a crude value. The same situation holds in relation to the transition in mobility, which has brought brusque and unexpected modifications in migration patterns. The process of population redistribution is having the effect of intensifying disparities of density and pressure and increasing spatial concentrations. Political changes in which states are playing an even more important role in demographic policy have been another influence on population geography. Direct or indirect, explicit or implicit policies of governments are increasingly shaping population growth and displacement, regardless of the type of government. National socioeconomic situations as well as populationsize and growth help determine interest in population. The growing quantity of available data, although variable in amount and quality from country to country, has also prompted geographic interest. It must be noted that many questions require other sources besides census data. The growing number of specializations within geography is reflected in development of population geography, which in England for example has different foundations and orientations toward mathematics, history, ecology, cartography, sociology, and other fields. The diffusion throughout the world of different forms of population geography has been very uneven. The development of an applied geography or geography relevant to development planning and public policy, and the growing realization that population systems cannot be dissociated from social, economic, and political systems are other trends. The Commission on Population Geography of the International Geographic Union has organized colloquiums for geographers of different national backgrounds and training to study theoretical, technical, and practical problems in population geography. 7 colloquia have been organized between 1980-84 on various themes. The Commission has published 2 books and edits a semiannual newsletter on population geography with the aim of functioning as an international tribunal for population geography. (summary in ENG)
Assessment and implementation of health care priorities in developing countries: incompatible paradigms and competing social systems.
Social Science and Medicine. 1984; 19(4):373-84.This paper addresses conceptual issues underlying the assessment and implementation of health care priorities in developing countries as practiced by foreign development agencies coping with a potentially destabilizing unmet social demand. As such, these agencies mediate the gap between existing health care structures patterned around the narrow needs of the ruling classes and the magnitude of public ill-health which mass movements strive to eradicate with implications for capitalism at large. It is in this context that foreign agencies are shown to intervene for the reassessment and implementation of health care priorities in developing countires with the objective of defending capitalism against the delegitimizing effects of its own development, specifically the persistence of mass disease. Constrained by this objective, the interpretations they offer of the miserable state of health prevailing in developing countries and how it could be improved remains ideological: it ranges between "stage theory" and modern consumption-production Malthusiansim. Developing countries are entering into a new pattern of public health which derives from their unique location in the development of capitalism, more specifically in the new international division of labor. Their present position affects not only the pattern and magnitude of disease formation but also the effective alleviation of mass disease without an alteration in the mode of production itself. In the context of underdevelopment, increased productivity is at the necessary cost of public health. Public health improvement is basically incompatible with production-consumption Malthusianism from which the leading "Basic Needs" orientation in the assessment and implementation of health care priorities derives. Marx said that "countries of developing capitalism suffer not only from its development but also from its underdevelopment." (author's modified)
[Unpublished] 1976. 21 p.The US has given increasing support to the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). Concern about family planning began to grow in the 1950s along with concern about population growth and its relationship to resources as well as about newly available contraceptive methods. Northern European, Asian, and Caribbean countries were in the forefront of the voluntary family planning movement in the early 1950s and in the parallel effort to involve the UN and international agencies in those efforts. This was also supported by some US demographers and family planning pioneers, especially General William Draper, Hugh Moore, and various biologists, economists, agriculturists, and sociologists who were concerned with the environment and the quality of life in the US and other countries. Without official government or UN action, voluntary bodies were established such as the International Planned Parenthood Federation, the Population Council, the Pathfinder Fund, and the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations. By the end of the 1950s the oral contraceptive and the IUD had been refined, as were methods of delivery of contraceptive services. Despite official caution, the involvement of developed countries in family planning overseas increased and it was theorized in 1958 by Coale and Hoover that rapid population growth can seriously hamper efforts to hasten social and economic development in poorer countries. In the US pressure for government action increased. A 1959 Presidential Committee on foreign aid recommended assistance for action programs relating to population and a study for the Senate came to a similar conclusion, yet requests for population assistance were still being referred to private institutions. In 1962 the US stated that it was willing to help governments seeking solutions to population problems through the UN, and in 1966 the US co-sponsored a resolution on population programs which laid the foundations of UN involvement; in 1968 the US became the 2nd and largest donor to the UN's Trust Fund for Population Activities with US$1 million. The US has been the largest donor ever since, yet has never attempted to influence the Fund's policies. Several strands of thinking about population have emerged through the years: 1) the population/resources situation is a crisis which can be solved only by extraordinary means, perhaps by suspending normal civil liberties for a time, but this view has no status in the UN; 2) family planning services are essential to break the cycle of poverty since poverty and overpopulation are seen as symbiotic evils; and 3) social and by economic advancement in developing countries is the only way of dealing with problems posed by population growth and a reordering of the international economic system is needed to make this possible. Success in achieving consensus on the wider issues of international economics and development, as with population, consists in the exercise of restraint; a willingness to understand the needs of other nations and to accept those needs is crucial. The US must recognize its economic interdependence with the rest of the world, especially considering its own virtues of openness.
In: D'Souza AA, de Souza A, ed. Population growth and human development. New Delhi, India, Indian Social Institute, 1974. 17-26.Although demographic statistics are grossly inadequate, a fairly convincing panorama of the population situation and trends has been prepared by demographers based on fragmentary information, coupled with assumptions and tested against collateral information. Population study reveals a 1st stage early in the recent historic perspective during which fertility and mortality rates were very high and the corresponding rates of natural growth were low. The 2nd stage of the transition begins with a decline in the death rates while fertility rates remained at high levels, and even increases, population growth accelerates during this period. This stage is characterized by rapid urbanization provoked by displacement of population from rural areas to urban centers. Fertility rates begin to decrease at a later period, in some cases more than 20 years after the decline of death rates--tending to level off with death rates at low levels. In this stage, population growth is near zero and has in some cases decreased. The entire transition may take at least 50 years. The key question is how to determine the crucial character of the interactions between population and the critical problems of our society: poverty; underdevelopment; gaps of income between and within countries; food; and environment. In 3 symposia at Cairo, Honolulu, and Stockholm, it was concluded that there were 3 schools of thought. 1 considered rapid population growth as a major cause of structural rigidities of the less developed economies, and therefore reduction of population growth as a 1st priority for improvement of living standards. Another, putting its faith in technological innovation, considered that the way to development was by socioeconomic changes rather than demographic paths of action. The 3rd considered the demograpic approach as one of many leading to the attainment of economic and social progress. The consensus was that there are limits to the growth of population both in the short-term and in the long-term. A World Population Conference held in Bucharest, Rumania in 1974 addressed the issues of recent population trends; relations between population change and economic and social development; relations between population, resources, and environment; and population, family, and well being.
Berkeley, Calif./London, England, University of California Press, 1981. xii, 173 p. (In series: Royer Lectures)This work, intended for a general as well as professional audience, argues that the acquired abilities of people including education, experience, skills, and health, are basic in achieving economic progress in the developing world. The 1st section examines the phenomenon of poverty in the developing world and stresses the contributions of human capital to productivity and human welfare in the lower income countries. Possible investments in human quality are surveyed, and theoretical and empirical observations concerning education and health are presented. A separate chapter assesses the role of higher education in developing countries, arguing that although governments in many countries impair the role of higher education, achievements have been substantial in a number of them. The next section examined economic consequences of the increases in the value of time that occur with development. A discussion of methodological and conceptual difficulties in measuring the value of time is included. The final section analyzes some serious economic distortions that result from government policies in developed as well as developing countries and that prevent the potential economic productivity of the poor from being realized. Distortions in the school systems of large cities, in allocation of funds for research, and in various aspects of life in developing countries that are affected by the international donor community are examined. Some implications of the findings are suggested in a brief concluding chapter.