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  1. 1
    Peer Reviewed

    The United Nations 2012 population projections.

    United Nations. Population Division

    Population and Development Review. 2013 Sep; 39(3):551-555.

    The latest biennial series of population estimates and projections issued by the United Nations Population Division -- known as the 2012 Revision -- was released in June 2013. The series is the most widely used statistical source for international demographic comparisons. The new estimates are advertised as taking into account the results of the 2010 round of censuses, resulting in some adjustments to the 2010 Revision’s baseline figures on total populations and vital rates and, in turn, changes in projection assumptions and projection outputs. Selected results of this exercise, taken from the publication World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables (and from the press release announcing it), are reprinted by permission. (Excerpt)
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  2. 2

    The state of world population 2011. People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion.

    United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]

    New York, New York, UNFPA, 2011. [132] p.

    The milestone of 7 billion is marked by achievements, setbacks and paradoxes. While women are on average having fewer children than they were in the 1960s, our numbers continue to rise. Globally, people are younger -- and older -- than ever before. In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamper development and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, low fertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns about prospects for sustained economic growth and about the viability of social security systems. While labour shortages threaten to stymie the economies of some industrialized countries, unemployed would-be migrants in developing countries are finding more and more national borders closed to them and the expertise they may have to offer. And while progress is being made in reducing extreme poverty, gaps between rich and poor are widening almost everywhere. The State of World Population 2011 explores some of these paradoxes from the perspective of individuals and describes the obstacles they confront -- and overcome -- in trying to build better lives for themselves, their families, communities and nations. Through personal stories, this report sheds light on the real-life challenges we face in our world of 7 billion. It is mainly a report from the field, from nine countries where the ordinary people who live there, the national experts who study demographic trends and the policymakers who must make decisions based on local conditions talk directly about their lives and work: China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. (Excerpt)
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  3. 3

    Population challenges and development goals.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2005. 57 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/248)

    Part one of this report provides a global overview of demographic trends for major areas and selected countries. It reviews major population trends relating to population size and growth, urbanization and city growth, population ageing, fertility and contraception, mortality, including HIV/AIDS, and international migration. In addition, a section on population policies has been included, in which the concerns and responses of Governments to the major population trends are summarized. The outcomes of the United Nations conferences convened during the 1990s set an ambitious development agenda reaffirmed by the United Nations Millennium Declaration in September 2000. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, being one of the major United Nations conferences of the decade, addressed all population aspects relevant for development and provided in its Programme of Action a comprehensive set of measures to achieve the development objectives identified. Given the crucial importance of population factors for development, the full implementation of the Programme of Action and the key actions for its further implementation will significantly contribute to the achievement of the universally agreed development goals, including those in the Millennium Declaration. Part two discusses the relevance that particular actions contained in those documents have for the attainment of universally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals. It also describes the key population trends relevant for development and the human rights basis that underpins key conference objectives and recommendations for action. (excerpt)
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  4. 4

    Population issues in the 21st century: The role of the World Bank.

    Lakshminarayanan R; May JF; Bos E; Hasan R; Suzuki E

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Human Development Network, 2007 Apr. [78] p. (HNP Discussion Paper)

    The objective of this paper is to discuss some obstacles and opportunities presented by population processes in order to prioritize areas for investment and analytical work as background information for the 2007 HNP Sector Strategy. Within HNP, two areas fall within population: (1) reproductive, maternal, and sexual health issues, and the health services that address them; and (2) levels and trends in births, deaths, and migration that determine population growth and age structure. Many of the aspects of delivery of sexual and reproductive health services are addressed in the overall sector strategy. This paper, therefore, focuses on the determinants and consequences of demographic change, and on policies and interventions that pertain to fertility and family planning. Fertility has declined in most of the low- and middle-income countries, with TFRs converging toward replacement level, except in 35 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a broad-based decline in fertility has not occurred. As the priorities of donors and development agencies have shifted toward other issues, and global funds and initiatives have largely bypassed funding of family planning, less attention is being focused on the consequences of high fertility. Reproductive health is conspicuously absent from the MDGs, and assistance to countries to meet the demand for family planning and related services is insufficient. The need for Bank engagement in population issues pertains to economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as inequities in terms of the impact of high fertility on the poor and other vulnerable groups. Evidence indicates that large family size reduces household spending per child, possibly with adverse effects on girls, and the health of mothers and children are affected by parity and birth intervals. Equity considerations remain central to the Bank's work as poor people are less likely to have access to family planning and other reproductive health services. Other vulnerable groups that are less likely to be served by reproductive health services include adolescents and rural populations. Additionally, improved education for girls, equal opportunities for women in society, and a reduction of the proportion of households living below the poverty line are necessary elements of a strategy to achieve sustainable reductions in fertility. The Bank has a comparative advantage to address these issues at the highest levels of country policy setting, and its involvement in many sectors can produce synergies that will allow faster progress than a more narrow focus on family planning services. (author's)
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  5. 5

    Expert group meets on 1990 world population and housing census programme.

    UN Chronicle. 1986 Jan; 23:[3] p..

    An expert group meeting on the 1990 World Population and Housing Census Programme was held at Headquarters from 11 to 15 November. A resolution adopted in May 1985 by the Economic and Social Council on the recommendation of the Statistical Commission had requested the Secretary-General to proceed with the development of a 1990 World Population and Housing Census Programme, to be carried out during 1985-1994, and to make all of the necessary preparations with a view to assisting interested Member States in planning and carrying out improved censuses. The resolution had also noted with satisfaction the "unprecedented efforts" made by State Members, in all regions, to carry out population and housing censuses as part of the 1980 World Population and Housing Census Programme. In that decade, a census of population or a census of population and housing had been carried out in 191 countries or areas of the world. Thus, over 95 per cent of the world's population had been enumerated. (excerpt)
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  6. 6

    World population prospects: the 2002 revision. Volume III: Analytical report.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2004. [345] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/233)

    This volume presents the analytical report for World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, the official United Nations population estimates and projections. The analytical report is the third volume of a three-volume set; the earlier two published volumes provide the comprehensive tables and the sex and age distribution of the population of all countries of the world. A CD-Rom containing the results of the 2002 Revision population estimates and projections is also available for purchase. A description of these data sets contained in each and an order form appear at the end of this volume. The 2002 Revision is the eighteenth round of global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. Between 1951 and 2000, following an early attempt in the 1940s, 17 revisions of population estimates and projections were published: in 1951, 1954, 1957, 1963, 1968, 1973, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1998 and 2000. This analytical report employs a different format than previous reports. In particular, the first five chapters, provide succinct and easy accessible summaries of the main demographic tendencies covered. More detailed analytical tables are given in the annex. Chapter VI, on the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS, provides more details than the other chapters because of the importance of its subject. (excerpt)
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  7. 7

    Population and vital statistics report. Data available as of 1 April 2003.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Statistics Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division, 2003 Apr. 18 p. (Statistical Papers Series A, Vol. LV, No. 2; ST/ESA/STAT/Ser.A/225)

    This issue of the Population and Vital Statistics Report presents 2001 and 2002 estimates of world and continental population, as well as corresponding 2001 estimates for 235 countries or areas of the world, which are listed separately in the Report. Also shown for each country or area are the results of the latest nation-wide census of population (total, male and female) and, wherever possible, nationally representative statistics of live births, deaths and infant deaths (deaths under one year of age) for the most recent year available. If a nation-wide population census has never been taken, but a sample survey has, the survey results are shown in the "Latest population census" column until census data become available and are footnoted accordingly. (excerpt)
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  8. 8

    1993 demographic yearbook. 45th. 1993 annuaire demographique.

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Statistical Division

    New York, New York, United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Statistical Division, 1995. x, 1,032 p. (No. ST/ESA/STAT/SER.R/24)

    This is a comprehensive collection of international demographic statistics published annually by the United Nations. "The tables in this issue of the Yearbook are presented in two parts, the basic tables followed by the tables devoted to population censuses, the special topic in this issue. The first part contains tables giving a world summary of basic demographic statistics, followed by tables presenting statistics on the size, distribution and trends in population, natality, foetal mortality, infant and maternal mortality, general mortality, nuptiality and divorce. In the second part, this issue of the Yearbook serves to update the census information featured in the 1988 issue. Census data on demographic and social characteristics include population by single years of age and sex, national and/or ethnic composition, language and religion. Tables showing data on geographical characteristics include information on major civil divisions and localities by size-class. Educational characteristics include population data on literacy, educational attainment and school attendance. In many of the tables, data are shown by urban/rural residence."
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  9. 9

    International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), Cairo, Egypt, 5-13th September 1994. National position paper.

    Zambia. National Commission for Development Planning

    Lusaka, Zambia, National Commission for Development Planning, 1993 Dec. viii, 39 p.

    Zambia's country report for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development opens with a review of the country's unfavorable economic and demographic situation. Population growth has been increasing (by 2.6% for 1963-69 and 3.2% for 1980-90) because of a high birth rate and a death rate which is declining despite an increase in infant and child mortality. The population is extremely mobile and youthful (49.6% under age 15 years in 1990). Formulation of a population policy began in 1984, and an implementation program was announced in 1989. International guidance has played a major role in the development of the policy and implementation plans but an inadequacy of resources has hindered implementation. New concerns (the status of women; HIV/AIDS; the environment; homeless children and families; increasing poverty; and the increase in infant, child, and maternal mortality) have been added to the formerly recognized urgent problems caused by the high cost of living, youth, urbanization, and rural underdevelopment. To date, population activities have been donor-driven; therefore, more government and individual support will be sought and efforts will be made to ensure that donor support focuses on the local institutionalization of programs. The country report presents the demographic context in terms of population size and growth, fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization, spatial distribution, population structure, and the implications of this demographic situation. The population policy, planning, and program framework is described through information on national perceptions of population issues, the role of population in development planning, the evolution and current status of the population policy, and a profile of the national population program (research methodology; integrated planning; information, education, and communication; health, fertility, and mortality regulatory initiatives; HIV/AIDS; migration; the environment; adolescents; women; and demography training). A description of the operational aspects of population and family planning (FP) program implementation covers political and national support, the national implementation strategy, program coordination, service delivery and quality of care, HIV/AIDS, personnel recruitment and training, evaluation, and financial resources. The discussion of the national plan for the future involves priority concerns, the policy framework, programmatic activities, and resource mobilization.
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  10. 10

    Selected demographic indicators from the United Nations population projections as assessed in 1990.

    Japan. Ministry of Health and Welfare. Institute of Population Problems

    Tokyo, Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1991 Feb 22. [9], 143 p. (Research Series No. 267)

    According to the UN Population Projections of 1990, the world population of 5 billion, 292 million, 200 thousand in 1990 will reach 6 billion, 260 million, 800 thousand in the year 2000 with an annual increase rate of about 100 million. 94% of the increase will be in developing countries. In the year, 2025, the world population will be 8 billion, 54 million. 96% of the increase between 2000 and 2025 will also be in developing countries. The ratio of the population of developing countries to the world population was 77% in 1990 and will be 80% and 84% in 2000 and 2025 respectively. The new UN projections added about 10 million to the previous figure projected for 2000 and 38 million to the same for 2025. The World Bank's Projections are 6 billion 204 for the year 2000 and 8 billion 15 million for 2025. Their figures are slightly smaller than UN figures. Their data also include Taiwan and socio-economic group specific population, both of which are not found in UN data. In 2150, the world population is projected to be 11 billion 499 million with all of the increase from 2050 to 150 taking place in the developing region. According to high medium, and low variants in the UN projections, world population in 2020 will be 9 billion 400 million, 8 billion 500 million, and 7 billion 600 million respectively. Asian population, which constituted 55% of the world population in 1950, will be 59% in 1990. Since 1980, Southern Asia and Africa have seen the highest increase rates. African population, which was 9% in 1950 and 12% in 1990, will increase to 19% in 2025. After 2000, population in some regions of Europe will decrease as it will in Japan after 2010. The world population as a whole changed from high fertility and high mortality to high fertility and low mortality and then to low fertility and low mortality. In 1990, the population pyramid of developing nations was expansive triangular, while that of highly industrialized nations was constructive high rise or near stationary. The age specific ratio in industrialized regions will be 13% in 2000 and 18-19% in 2025.
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  11. 11

    [Population and development in the Republic of Zaire: policies and programs] Population et developpement en Republique du Zaire: politiques et programmes.

    Zaire. Departement du Plan. Direction des Etudes Macroeconomiques

    [Unpublished] 1986. Presented at the All-Africa Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development, Harare, Zimbabwe, May 12-16, 1986. 9 p.

    The 1st census of Zaire, in July 1984, indicated that the population of 30 million was growing at a rate of at least 2.3%/year. The crude birth rate was estimated at 46/1000 and was believed to be higher in urban areas than in rural because of better health and educational conditions. The crude death rate was estimated at 16/1000 and the infant mortality rate at 106/1000. 46.5% of the population is under 15. The population is projected to reach 34.5 million in 1990, with urban areas growing more rapidly than rural. Zaire is at the stage of demographic transition where the gap between fertility and mortality is very wide. The consequences for national development include massive migration and rural exodus, unemployment and underemployment, illness, low educational levels, rapid urbanization, and increasing poverty. In the past decade, Zaire has undertaken a number of activities intended to improve living conditions, but as yet there is no explicit official policy integrating population and development objectives. In 1983, the Executive Council of Zaire organized a mission to identify basic needs of the population, with the assistance of the UN Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). In 1985, the UNFPA developed a 5-year development plan. The UNFPA activities include demographic data collection, demographic policy and research, maternal-child health and family planning, population education, and women and development. In the area of data collection, the 1st census undertaken with UNFPA help has increased the availability of timely and reliable demographic data. The vital registration system is to be improved and a permanent population register to be developed to provide data on population movement. A National Population Committee is soon to be established to assist the Executive Council in defining a coherent population policy in harmony with the economic, social, and cultural conditions of Zaire. Demographic research will be conducted by the Demographic Department of the University of Kinshasa and the National Institute of Statistics. A primary health care policy has been defined to increase health coverage to 60% from the current level of 20%. Zaire has favored family planning services integrated with the primary health care system since 1979. At present 2 components of the Desirable Births" program are underway, the Desirable Births Service Project undertaken in 1983 and the Rural Health Project undertaken in 1982, both executed by the Department of Public Health with financing provided by US Agency for International Development. The RAPID (Resources for the Analysis of the Impact of Population on Development) program has been used since 1985 to inform politicians, technicians, and planners. Efforts have been underway since 1965 to include women in the development process, and a new family code is being studied which would give better protection to some rights of women and children.
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  12. 12

    [The Permanent Household Survey: provisional results, 1985] Enquete Permanente Aupres des Menages: resultats provisoires 1985

    Ivory Coast. Ministere de l'Economie et des Finances. Direction de la Statistique

    Abidjan, Ivory Coast, Ivory Coast. Ministere de l'Economie et des Finances. Direction de la Statistique, 1985. 76 p.

    This preliminary statistical report provides an overview of selected key economic and social indicators drawn from a data collection system recently implemented in the Ivory Coast. The Ivory Coast's Direction de la Statistique and the World Bank's Development Research Department are collaborating, under the auspices of the Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study, to interview 160 households per month on a continuous basis for 10 months out of the year. Data are collected concerning population size, age structure, sex distribution, family size, nationality, proportion of female heads of household, fertility, migration, health, education, type of residence, occupations, employment status, financial assistance among family members, and consumption. Annual statistical reports based on each round of the survey are to be published, along with brief semiannual updates.
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  13. 13


    International Planned Parenthood Federation

    London, England, IPPF, 1984. 3 p. (IPPF Fact Sheet)

    Long term problems of population growth in China are indicated by the fact that 65% of the 1,024,950,000 1983 population is under 30 years of age; 50% is under 21. Although family planning was started in the 1950s, it was neglected during the 1960s Cultural Revolution, and did not become a national program until 1971. The one child per family policy, proposed in 1978, has since become the basis for government regulations which are strictly enforced. Family planning messages are conveyed through every possible type of media, and services are made available to the entire population. Various economic incentives and disincentives such as, monthly health care subsidies granted to couples who have only one child until he reaches the age of 14, grain allocations for an only child, and larger private plots, are used to help reward those who obey the family planning policy. All contraceptives are available free of charge: at the end of 1983, 69.5% of fertile couples were using some form of modern contraceptive method. The China Family Planning Association was formed in 1980 with the objective of assisting the government program by motivating people to accept family planning. The Association's 3 year plan for 1985-1987 is: 1) to strengthen family planning publicity; 2) to increase the management and professional skills of the personnel; 3) to strengthen the Association's organization at central and branch level; and 4) to participate in international conferences and other activities.
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  14. 14
    Peer Reviewed

    Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95.

    Keilman N

    Population Studies. 2001 Jul; 55(2):149-64.

    Between 1951 and 1998, the UN published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. The author analyzes the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. The author studies also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptions for the sets of projections are compared with corresponding estimates from the UN 1998 Revision for total fertility and life expectancy at birth, total population, and the projected age structures. The report covers seven major regions (Africa, Asia, the former USSR, Europe, northern America, Latin America, and Oceania) and the largest 10 countries of the world as of 1998 (China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria). (author's)
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  15. 15

    [The United Nations revises its world population predictions upward] L'ONU revoit a la hausse ses previsions sur la population mondiale.

    EQUILIBRES ET POPULATIONS. 2001 Mar; (66):5.

    Despite considerable excess mortality due to AIDS in countries and regions around the globe, high fertility in developing countries could add 500 million more people than projected to world population over the next 50 years. Medium-level UN projections anticipate a total world population of 9.3 billion individuals by 2050. Due to high fertility levels, the population of developing countries will grow from 4.9 billion people in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050. If the mean number of children per woman worldwide is 2.82, the 48 countries located in the world’s least developed regions have average total fertility rates greater than 5 children per woman. Most recent UN population projections for 2050 are higher than previous calculations due to a re-examination of fertility rates for 16 developing countries which will alone add 374 million people. The correction is particularly important in the cases of Bangladesh and Nigeria. At the same time, while the extent of AIDS mortality will increase over the next 5 years, to afflict 15.5 million people in the 45 worst-hit countries, those countries’ populations should continue to expand due to high fertility. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36%, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where HIV/AIDS infection rates are over 25%, the populations should continue to grow significantly over the next 50 years: by 37% in Botswana, 148% in Swaziland, and 86% in Zimbabwe. Only South Africa should see its population decline until 2025, then expand again. In this context, international migration and demographic aging are considered.
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  16. 16

    Secretary-General welcomes Adnan, Baby 6 Billion.

    POPULI. 1999 Dec; 26(4):4-5.

    UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan greeted baby Adnan Melvic, symbolically designated Baby 6 Billion, to mark projections that the population of the world had crossed that milestone on that day, October 12, 1999. Within 4 decades, the world population has doubled. The number 6 billion represents "individual lives, each having a unique value, with individual needs to be met and rights to protected." On October 12, it was estimated that 356,000 babies were born and had to struggle for water, food, clothing, housing, basic education, and health care services. At the same time, 585,000 women die each year of pregnancy-related causes. Dr. Nafis Sadik, UN Population Fund (UNFPA) Executive Director, is urging the international community to meet its $17-billion-a-year commitment to ensure reproductive health care services for all people, to continue to increase life expectancy, to reduce maternal mortality, and to enhance child survival. Throughout the world, several activities have been underway to promote the 6 billion population milestone initiated by UNFPA, including Web sites and media campaigns as well as hospital designations of the symbolic 6-billionth baby. In Palestinian territory, a women s center was inaugurated to provide reproductive health services, counseling, physiotherapy and communication education. Countries are making progress in implementing their 20-year action plan to promote gender equality and reproductive health. To sustain this progress, increased funding especially from donor countries are urgently needed.
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  17. 17

    World population prospects: the 1992 revision. Annex tables.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    [Unpublished] 1992. [136] p.

    This report presents the 1992 revision of the UN world population projections to 2025 for its high, medium, and low variants and supplemental statistical data (fertility, infant death, birth, death rates; life expectancy; and dependency ratio. Data is tabulated for each of 240 countries of the world, regional totals, and world totals. Statistics are provided quinquennially during 1960-95 with projections quinquennially during 2000-25. Statistics give population size and annual rate of change.
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  18. 18

    The 1998 revision of the United Nations population projections.


    Total world population of 5.9 billion at mid-1998 is expected to reach 6 billion in 1999. During the period 1995-2000, the world population is growing at 1.33% per year, adding an average of 78 million people annually. Depending upon assumptions made about future fertility trends, anywhere from 7.3 to 10.7 billion people will inhabit the Earth in the mid-21st century. In the medium-fertility scenario, world population will reach 8.9 billion in 2050. The main results of the 1998 round of population estimates from 1950 to the present and population projections up to 2050 were released by the Population Division of the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs on October 28, 1998. The estimates and projections cover 228 countries and areas of the world. The projections and retrospective estimates are revised biennially. Compared with the 2 earlier sets of projections, the 1998 set shows marked changes. While the global population for 2050 according to the 1998 medium-scenario projection is 8.9 billion, the corresponding forecast was 9.4 billion in the 1996 revision and 9.8 billion in the 1994 revision. These differences, however, may only be partly attributed to revised current population data. Rather, they reflect reconsiderations of the likely outlook for the future evolution of fertility and mortality, driven by changed assumptions on the most plausible extrapolation of recent population trends. Important features of this shift include the acceptance of the idea that return to replacement-level fertility is unlikely in countries in which fertility is now below replacement level, a more rapid convergence of fertility to replacement level in countries in which fertility remains relatively high, and considerable excess mortality attributable to the AIDS epidemic in parts of the developing world.
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  19. 19

    UN projections assume fertility decline, mortality increase.

    Haub C

    POPULATION TODAY. 1998 Dec; 26(12):1-2.

    This article summarizes the latest findings from the UN Population Division's 1998 review of World Population Estimates and Projections. The revisions reflect lower future population size and faster rates of fertility and mortality decline. The medium variant of population projection for 2050 indicates 8.9 billion, which is 458 million lower than projected in 1996 and 924 million lower than projected in 1994. The changes are due to changes in developing countries. Africa's changes accounted for over 50% of the change. The UN medium projection assumes that the desire for fewer children and effective contraceptive practice will continue and that the availability of family planning services will increase. The revisions are also attributed to the widespread prevalence of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and greater chances for lower fertility in developing countries. AIDS mortality may decrease average life expectancy in 29 African countries by 7 years. The UN medium projection assumes a decline in fertility from 2.7 children/woman during 1995-2000 to 2.0 children/woman by 2050. The UN high variant is 10.7 billion by 2050; the low variant is 7.3 billion. It is concluded that efforts of national governments and international agencies have contributed to increased access to reproductive health services and subsequent fertility decline. Future declines will depend on accessibility issues. Despite declines, world population is still growing by 78 million annually. Even countries such as Botswana, with 25% of the population infected with HIV/AIDS, will double in size by 2050.
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  20. 20

    Haiti: not enough services for fast-growing population.

    POPULI. 1999 Jan; 25(4):4.

    According to the UNFPA, Haiti's estimated population of 8 million people is growing by about 200,000 people (2.3%) per year. Total population in Haiti is already larger than that projected in 1980 for the country in 2003. At the current rate of growth, Haiti's population will reach 10 million people by 2010 and 20 million by 2040. The country is becoming increasingly urbanized, with 55% of the population projected to be living in cities in 2010. Massive in-migration from rural areas to cities has destabilized urban life in terms of employment, housing, and transportation. Only 30% of jobs lost in Port-au-Prince after the 1991 military coup d'etat has been revived. Rents are increasing, homeless people abound, and numerous unregulated structures are being built. Traffic and pollution choke Port-au-Prince. Although the agricultural sector employs 70% of the work force, it earns only 31% of national income. 63% of the original forest in Haiti has been destroyed and 63% of the land cannot be cultivated because it slopes at an angle of greater than 20 degrees. The availability of potable water is growing increasingly scarce. Haiti's rapid population growth could impede social, economic, and environmental progress.
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  21. 21

    United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) moves Day of Six Billion from mid-June to 12 October 1999.

    POPULI. 1999 Jan; 25(4):3-4.

    Revised population estimates released last month by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs indicate that fertility levels in developing countries are dropping, partly due to improved reproductive health and family planning services and education for women. HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality are also helping to slow the rate of population growth in certain developing countries. The available data indicate a long-term decline to below replacement level fertility in most industrialized countries. These declines in fertility levels have caused the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to push back the date when world population will reach 6 billion people from June 16, 1999, to October 12, 1999. World population, however, continues to grow by 78 million people every year. 97% of that increase is in developing countries, where access to family planning and reproductive health services is limited.
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  22. 22

    World population projections to 2150.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division, 1998 Feb 1. 7 p.

    The long-range population projections presented here, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, cover the period from 1950 to 2150.... The median fertility scenario projects that world population could reach 10.8 billion persons by 2150 and would ultimately stabilize at nearly 11 billion persons around 2200. However, the low and high fertility scenarios put a large band around the numbers--from 3.6 billion persons in 2150 to 27.0 billion in 2150. (EXCERPT)
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  23. 23

    Population in Asia.

    Sanderson WC; Tan JP

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, 1995. xvii, 243 p. (World Bank Regional and Sectoral Studies)

    Based on a study using country-level data from Asian countries, the World Bank has come to three broad conclusions: by expanding contraceptive knowledge and contraceptive use, family planning programs in Asia have contributed to lower fertility; investments in family planning services, albeit necessary, are not sufficient to bring sustained fertility decreases to replacement level; and despite advances in fertility decline, relatively youthful populations in Asian countries will maintain a substantial population increase over the next 40 years. The capability of institutions (especially government) to provide social services to the people and the capability of individuals to use those services appropriately play a significant role in determining the speed and sustainability of fertility decline. The Asian countries exhibited differences in this social capacity. These differences bring to the fore questions about policies fostering fertility decline. Topics covered in this examination of population policy in Asian countries include: population size and growth; contraceptive prevalence; fertility levels; expenditures and the public vs the private sector in family planning and delivery of family planning services; case studies on family planning programs in China, India, and Indonesia; future population sizes of Asian countries and coping with population growth and change. The appendixes address parameterization of the total fertility rate; government policies and their effects on the use of family planning services; and supplementary data.
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  24. 24

    World population 1994. [Wallchart].

    United Nations. Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, Dept. for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, 1994 Aug. [2] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/142)

    This wall chart tabulates data from the medium variant of the UN population estimates and projections as revised in 1994. Figures are given for the world as a whole and for more developed, less developed, and least developed areas. Data are also provided for regions and for individual countries within those regions. The mid-year population is shown in thousands for 1994, 2015, and 2050. Figures are then detailed for percentage annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, and infant mortality rate for 1990-95. Age distribution (under age 15 years and 65 years or older) and density data are also provided for mid-1994. In addition to the main table, a listing is given of the 10 largest countries in 1994, and bar graphs show world population in millions for 1950-2050 as well as the average annual increase in millions for 1950-2050.
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  25. 25

    New UN projections include local effects of AIDS.

    Kalish S

    POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Oct; 20(10):1-2.

    Reaching 5.5 billion in mid-1992, global population is basically on track with population projections made in 1990. About 60% of the world's population currently lives in ten countries; China and India together comprise 38% of the total. At the growth rate of 1.7%, 750 million people will be added to the world by the end of the decade, with populations of less developed countries growing four times faster than those in the more developed regions. Although the overall growth rate is as projected, all is not as expected at the country level. Compared with 1990 estimates, several African countries are growing more slowly than expected, largely due to AIDS. It is noted, however, that the UN's projected effects of the AIDS epidemic on population size are modest compared to recent speculation that AIDS could halt population growth in Africa. Latin America is also growing slower than expected due to a faster than expected decline in fertility. China is growing a bit faster than expected and India is growing a bit slower. With its 1992 revisions, the UN Population Division for the first time took into account the potential demographic impact of the AIDS pandemic. Life expectancies have been adjusted downward in the 15 countries where AIDS has the highest prevalence: Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. AIDS could reduce population growth by 20 million in these countries over the next 25 years. Population growth rates will nonetheless remain strongly positive in the next few decades with the rapid pace of fertility affecting future population growth far more than mortality or any other demographic parameter. The new projections also take into account recent international migration and sweeping global political changes.
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