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  1. 1
    180813

    Forecasting the unknowable: the U.N. "World Population Prospects: the 2002 Revision".

    Grant L

    Washington, D.C., Negative Population Growth [NPG], 2003 Jun. 8 p. (NPG Forum)

    The United Nations Population Division has put the highlights of its new population estimates and projections onto the Web. Present world population is 6.3 billion. It is projected to rise to 8.9 billion by 2050, a number almost identical to the 1998 projection but 400-million-below-the-2000-version and slightly below the U.S. Census Bureau projection of 9.079 billion. The projection reflects (1) the expectation that fertility is heading below 2.1 in all but the poorest less developed countries (LDCs) and (2) the growing seriousness of AIDS. The new report represents an ongoing effort to bring the projections into line with recent experience. That process is still incomplete. Uncertainties internal and external to the calculations raise several questions: Will European fertility rise as anticipated? Will mortality continue to decline, particularly in the least developed countries, or will it rise and thus eventually bring population growth to a stop through the grim process of rising death rates rather than the benign process of reduced fertility? Do the projections still understate U.S. fertility and population growth? The report makes no effort to analyze the external forces that will affect mortality and migration. (excerpt)
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  2. 2
    090038

    Population in the 22nd century, from the United Nations long range projections.

    Grinblat JA

    In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 2, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 249-58.

    Information is provided on the population of the world to the year 2150 based on UN long-range projections. 9 major areas were consolidated into Group 1 (Northern America, Europe, Oceania, and USSR) and Group II (China, India, Other Asia, Latin America, and Africa). The long-range projections use as a base the population size for 2025 from 1 of the 4 variants of the 1990 Revision. Extensions were prepared to the 1990 Revision: the medium, medium/low, low, medium/high, high, and constant fertility extensions. According to the medium fertility extension, the population of the world but be multiplied by 4.6 between the years 1950 and 2150, growing from 2.5 billion to 11.5 billion, and eventually stabilize at 11.6 billion a half century later. By the year 2150 there will be 33% more old people, aged 65 and over, than children under age 15, and 50% as many very old people, aged 80 and over, as children. In 2150 the proportion of the population under age 15 will be 18%, having declined from 32% in 1990 and 21% in 2050. In 2150, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will be 24%; up from 6% in 1990 and 14% in 2050. The proportion of aged 80 and over will increase from 1% in 1990 to 3% in 2050 and 0% in 2150. The range in projected population size, for the year 2150, between the low and high fertility extensions is 4.3 billion persons to 28.0 billion persons assuming future fertility stabilized at 1.7 r 2.5 children/woman. Although the areas in Group 1 include about 20% of the population of the world in 1990, they will contribute less than 2% of the increase in the world population between 1990 and 2150, with more than 98% taking place in the areas of Group II (medium extension). The growth of the world population will take place essentially in the Group II. Africa will continue to be the fastest growing area. Its population is projected to be multi lied by 14 between 1950 and 2150. Its share of the world population will reach 27% in 2150 with a total of 3 billion and 90 million inhabitants.
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