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In: Population policies and programmes. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Policies and Programmes, Cairo, Egypt, 12-16 April 1992. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 27-41. (ST/ESA/SER.R/128)The world population reached 5.4 billion in mid-1991, and it is growing by 1.7% per annum. The medium-variant United Nations population projection for the year 2025 is now 8.5 billion, 260 million more than the United Nations projection in 1982. This implies reducing the total fertility rate in the developing countries from 3.8 to 3.3 by the year 2000 and increasing contraceptive prevalence from 51 to 59%. This will involve extending family planning services to 2 billion people. For the first time, fertility is declining worldwide, as governments have adopted fertility reduction measures through primary health care education, employment, housing, and the enhanced status of women. Since the 1960s, contraceptive prevalence in developing countries has grown from less than 10% to slightly over 50%. However, 300 million men and women worldwide who desire to plan their families lack contraceptives. Life expectancy has been increasing: for the world, it is 65.5 years for 1990-1995. Infant mortality rates have been halved. Child mortality has plummeted, but in more than one-third of the developing countries it still exceeds 100 deaths/1000 live births. Globally, child immunization coverage increased from only 5% in 1974 to 80% in 1990. At the beginning of the 1980s, only about 100,000 persons worldwide were infected with HIV. During the 1980s, 5-10 million people became infected. WHO projects that the cumulative global total of HIV infections will be between 30 and 40 million by 2000. The European governments are concerned with growing international migration. Currently, 34.5% of governments have adopted policies to lower immigration. In the early 1970s, the number of refugees worldwide was about 3.5 million; by the late 1980s, they had increased to nearly 17 million. A Program of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the 1990s was adopted in September 1990 to strengthen the partnership with the international donor community.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, United Nations, Economic Commission for Africa [ECA], Population Division, 1993 Jun. 26 p.The present study on consistency between population projections prepared by the United Nations and selected [African ECA] member States found that differences, which were substantial for some countries, exist between the two sets of projections. The basic reasons for the differences [are] related to alternative assessments of: (a) the bench-mark data on population sizes and (b) the bench-mark estimates and projections on fertility, mortality and migration. (EXCERPT)
In: Family planning. Meeting challenges: promoting choices. The proceedings of the IPPF Family Planning Congress, New Delhi, October 1992, edited by Pramilla Senanayake and Ronald L. Kleinman. Carnforth, England, Parthenon Publishing Group, 1993. 7-14.The International Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF) has been guided by the belief that family planning is a basic human right. The United Nations Population fund (UNFPA) and IPPF have had a long-standing cooperative relationship in this arena. Family planning is not only a human right, it is a necessity; projections indicate that world population will increase to 8.5 billion by 2025 and to 10 billion by 2050. The high and medium projections diverge sharply after the year 2000 depending on the effect of family planning acceptance and the spread of contraceptive prevalence. In 1989 the international community set a target of increasing contraceptive prevalence in developing countries from 387 million to 567 million by 2000. First the existing need for FP has to be met, since about 400 million couples do not have access to services. At least 150 million would use FP if services were available. The total cost of providing FP services would be $9 billion annually, which is a minute amount compared to total military expenditures. The positive impact of FP depends on voluntary acceptance, age, family, status, and parity, which fact rules out setting quotas or targets. A choice-based approach is preferred, which negates single-method FP programs. FP policies can succeed only if they invest in women with regard to education: this could end early marriage. The growing problem of adolescent pregnancy also has to be tackled. Maternal mortality and morbidity can be prevented by existing medical technology to treat their causes (hemorrhage, hypertension, infection, obstructed labor, and unsafe abortion). The promotion of breast feeding is important both for the child's health and for its temporary contraceptive effects. FP programs should also combat HIV/AIDS by providing information and counseling for women. In recent years the quality of care has come to the forefront in FP clinics where accessibility, privacy, and confidentiality of services are needed.
Population redistribution in the context of rapid population growth: the urbanization of the ESCWA region 1950-2000.
In: Population spatial distribution, [compiled by] United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia [ESCWA]. Social Development, Population and Human Settlements Division. [Amman, Jordan], ESCWA, 1993 Aug 8. 1-37. (E/ESCWA/POP/1993/4)UN data was used to examine trends in urbanization in Western Asia (ESCWA region), to identify potential factors affecting urbanization, and to give an overview of the region's population policies. Over the past 40 years, the rate of urbanization in the region has been more rapid than anywhere else in the world. The world level of urbanization was 43% in 1990, in the ESCWA region it was 56%. By 1975, all countries in the ESCWA region experienced large urban increases, and the gaps widened between countries. The tendency was for increased changes with every five year period. Between 1960 and 1975, urban population growth was double or more than rural population growth, except for the United Arab Emirates. The pace of change slowed between 1975 and that projected for the year 2000. The gap narrowed between countries with high urbanization levels and those with moderately high levels. Increases in each 5 year interval were observed for South Yemen, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria; decreases were observed with each 5 year interval for Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and North Yemen. Zero order correlations with the Spearman rank ordering technique showed a low negative relationship between population size and level of urbanization. Density and percentage urban in the largest agglomeration were positively and strongly related to urbanization. More densely populated urban areas were subject to greater urban increases. The total economically active population was weakly correlated with level of urbanization (0.692). The percentage engaged in non-agriculture and services were more strongly correlated (0.830 and 0.714, respectively). Smaller populations tend to have more advanced nonagricultural employment. Per capita gross domestic product was strongly associated with the percentage urban (0.709), but weakly associated with the percentage urban in the largest agglomeration and not at all related to population density. Urbanization and infant mortality were inversely related (-0.681). Infant mortality was correlated more strongly with percentage economically active in services (-0.852) and in non-agriculture than density or percentage urban in the largest agglomeration. By 1990, Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia had 80% of total population in urban areas. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates had urban populations ranging from 50% to 79%. Most governments in 1990 viewed their population distributions as less desirable. Nine out of 13 countries in 1976 recognized a policy objective of redistribution. All countries have a policy for promotion of small towns and intermediate sized cities. Seven countries out of 13 have policies for development of "new" towns and are using the development of public infrastructure and investment subsidies to encourage new development. Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Emirates are channeling urban development investment to specific industrial locations.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1993; (34-35):102-19.As part of the preparation for the forth-coming UN International Conference on Population and Development, an expert group met in Paris, France, in November 1992 to discuss population growth and demographic structure. As part of the demographic background for the meeting provided by the UN Population Division, participants were informed that although the world population growth rate began to decline in the late 1970s, this decline has not yet resulted in declining absolute numbers, and the annual increment to the world population was not expected to decline to the level that existed in 1985 until the period 2020-25. World population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 5.3 billion in 1990. The medium variant population projection of the UN shows world population at 6.3 billion in 2000 and 8.5 billion in 2025 (the high variant shows 9.4 billion in 2025 and the low variant shows 7.6 billion). Population aging is expected to reach unparalleled levels in 2010-20. The meeting then considered the topics of population growth and socioeconomic development, confronting poverty in developing countries, demographic impacts of development patterns, demographic and health transitions, population growth and employment, social change and the elderly in developing countries, and social development and ageing in developed countries, The expert group meeting then prepared 19 recommendations aimed at governments, social institutions, and the international community. The recommendations call for political commitment to human resources development and population and development programs, especially in least developed countries, alleviation of poverty and social inequality, and equality of access to social and health resources that will lead to reduced mortality and fertility. Governments are urged to place a high priority on education and on increasing women's access to education and to remove barriers to economic independence for women. Health-sector priorities should be reassessed to provide the most cost-effective and efficient means of providing health care, reproductive health-care programs should receive high priority, and efforts should be made to minimize the effects of HIV infection and reduce the spread of AIDS. The needs of the elderly should be met with a "safety net," which should be developed in countries with no social security programs. The elderly should be recognized as an important human resource for development, and intergenerational equity should exist to accommodate their needs, with special efforts made to help them remain in their own homes and communities. Governments should collect accurate, comprehensive, and regular data on population characteristics and trends, and the international community should facilitate the comparative analysis of such data. Training should be provided to professionals in demography and related fields in developing countries.
In: International Population Conference / Congres International de la Population, Montreal 1993, 24 August - 1st September. Volume 2, [compiled by] International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]. Liege, Belgium, IUSSP, 1993. 249-58.Information is provided on the population of the world to the year 2150 based on UN long-range projections. 9 major areas were consolidated into Group 1 (Northern America, Europe, Oceania, and USSR) and Group II (China, India, Other Asia, Latin America, and Africa). The long-range projections use as a base the population size for 2025 from 1 of the 4 variants of the 1990 Revision. Extensions were prepared to the 1990 Revision: the medium, medium/low, low, medium/high, high, and constant fertility extensions. According to the medium fertility extension, the population of the world but be multiplied by 4.6 between the years 1950 and 2150, growing from 2.5 billion to 11.5 billion, and eventually stabilize at 11.6 billion a half century later. By the year 2150 there will be 33% more old people, aged 65 and over, than children under age 15, and 50% as many very old people, aged 80 and over, as children. In 2150 the proportion of the population under age 15 will be 18%, having declined from 32% in 1990 and 21% in 2050. In 2150, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over will be 24%; up from 6% in 1990 and 14% in 2050. The proportion of aged 80 and over will increase from 1% in 1990 to 3% in 2050 and 0% in 2150. The range in projected population size, for the year 2150, between the low and high fertility extensions is 4.3 billion persons to 28.0 billion persons assuming future fertility stabilized at 1.7 r 2.5 children/woman. Although the areas in Group 1 include about 20% of the population of the world in 1990, they will contribute less than 2% of the increase in the world population between 1990 and 2150, with more than 98% taking place in the areas of Group II (medium extension). The growth of the world population will take place essentially in the Group II. Africa will continue to be the fastest growing area. Its population is projected to be multi lied by 14 between 1950 and 2150. Its share of the world population will reach 27% in 2150 with a total of 3 billion and 90 million inhabitants.