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Tokyo, Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1991 Feb 22. , 143 p. (Research Series No. 267)According to the UN Population Projections of 1990, the world population of 5 billion, 292 million, 200 thousand in 1990 will reach 6 billion, 260 million, 800 thousand in the year 2000 with an annual increase rate of about 100 million. 94% of the increase will be in developing countries. In the year, 2025, the world population will be 8 billion, 54 million. 96% of the increase between 2000 and 2025 will also be in developing countries. The ratio of the population of developing countries to the world population was 77% in 1990 and will be 80% and 84% in 2000 and 2025 respectively. The new UN projections added about 10 million to the previous figure projected for 2000 and 38 million to the same for 2025. The World Bank's Projections are 6 billion 204 for the year 2000 and 8 billion 15 million for 2025. Their figures are slightly smaller than UN figures. Their data also include Taiwan and socio-economic group specific population, both of which are not found in UN data. In 2150, the world population is projected to be 11 billion 499 million with all of the increase from 2050 to 150 taking place in the developing region. According to high medium, and low variants in the UN projections, world population in 2020 will be 9 billion 400 million, 8 billion 500 million, and 7 billion 600 million respectively. Asian population, which constituted 55% of the world population in 1950, will be 59% in 1990. Since 1980, Southern Asia and Africa have seen the highest increase rates. African population, which was 9% in 1950 and 12% in 1990, will increase to 19% in 2025. After 2000, population in some regions of Europe will decrease as it will in Japan after 2010. The world population as a whole changed from high fertility and high mortality to high fertility and low mortality and then to low fertility and low mortality. In 1990, the population pyramid of developing nations was expansive triangular, while that of highly industrialized nations was constructive high rise or near stationary. The age specific ratio in industrialized regions will be 13% in 2000 and 18-19% in 2025.
New York, New York, UNFPA, . , 33 p.A United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) mission to Albania in 1989 attempted to identify the country's priority population issues and goals. Albania, a socialist country, has made many accomplishments, including an administrative structure that extends down to the village level, no foreign debt, universal literacy, a low death rate (5.4/1000), and involvement of women in development. At the same time, the country has the highest birth rate in Europe (25.5/1000), a high incidence of illegal abortion, lack of access to modern methods of contraception, and inadequate technology in areas such as medical equipment and data collection. Albania's population policy is aimed at maintaining the birth rate at its current level, reducing morality, and lowering the abortion rate by 50% by 1995. Goals for the health sector include increasing life expectancy, reducing infant and maternal mortality, improving the quality of health services, and decreasing the gap between the standard of living in rural and urban areas. Family planning is not allowed except for health reasons. Depending on trends in the total fertility rate, Albania's population in the year 2025 could be as low as 4.6 million or as high as 5.4 million. Albania has expressed an interest in collaborating with UN agencies in technical cooperation projects. The UNFPA mission recommended that support should be provided for the creation of a population database and analysis system for the Government's 1991-95 development plan. Also recommended was support to the Enver Hoxha University's program of strengthening the teaching of population dynamics and demographic research. Other recommendations included activities to strengthen maternal care/child spacing activities, IEC projects, and to raise the status of women.
Bangkok, Thailand, ESCAP, Population Division, 1991.  p.The 1991 Population Data Sheet produced by the UN Economic and social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) provides a large chart by country and region for Asia and the Pacific for the following variables: mid-1991 population, average annual growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, male life expectancy at birth, female life expectancy at birth, % aged 0-14 years, % aged 65 and over, dependency ratios, density, % urban, and population projection at 2010. 3 charts also display urban and rural population trends between 1980 and 2025, the crude birth and death rates and rate of natural increase by region, and dependency ratios for 27 countries.
The sex and age distributions of population. The 1990 revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. viii, 391 p. (Population Studies No. 122; ST/ESA/SER.A/122)This statistical report includes the estimated and projected age distribution of the population based on high, medium, and low variants for 152 countries with populations greater than 300,000 between 1950 and 2025 in 5-year intervals. A world total as well as by continents and subregions are available along with the spatial groups; least developed countries, less developed regions (excluding China), the Economic Commission for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Pacific, Western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Grouped data reflect countries with populations both greater than and less than 300,000. This revision was begun in 1988 and completed in 1990 by the UN Population Division of the International Economic and Social Affairs Department in conjunction with other UN regional commissions and the Statistical Office. A discussion of methods and data used for these estimates, a summary of findings, and selected demographic indicators will be available in World Population Prospects, 1990, and in summary form in the UN World Population Chart, 1990. A magnetic tape and diskettes of these data are available on request for purchase.
[Unpublished] . 10,  p.Based upon United Nations medium population projections, the population of developing countries will grow from 4,086 million in 1990, to 5,000 million by the year 2000. To meet this medium-level projection, 186 million contraceptive users must be added for a total 567 million in addition to increased contraceptive prevalence of 59% from 51%. This study estimates the number of contraceptive users, acceptors, and cost of contraceptive commodities needed to limit growth to this medium projection. Needs are estimated by country and method for 1990, 1995 and 2000, for medium, high, and low population projections. The number of contraceptive users required to reach replacement fertility is also calculated. Results are based upon the number of women aged 15-49, percent married, number married ages 15-49, and the proportion of couples using contraception. Estimation methodology is discussed in detail. Estimated users of respective methods in millions are 150 sterilizations, 333 IUD insertions, 663 injections, 7,589 cycles of pills, and 30,000 condoms. Estimated commodity costs will grow from $399 million in 1990 to $627 million in 2000, for a total $5.1 billion over the period. Pills will be the most expensive at $1.9 billion, followed by sterilizations at $1.4 billion, condoms $888 million, injectables $594 million, and IUDs $278 million. Estimated costs for commodities purchased in the U.S. show IUDs and condoms to be significantly more expensive, but pills as cheaper. With donors paying for approximately 25% of public sector commodity costs, developing country governments will need to pay $4.2 billion of total costs in the absence of increased commercial/private sector and donor support.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
SCIENCE. 1991 Apr 19; 252:372-3.WHO and U.S. Centers for Disease Control data on HIV/AIDS prevalence as of April 1991 are summarized, as they were shown to a meeting of molecular biologists. WHO estimates that there are about 1 million cases of AIDS, and 8-10 million infected with HIV, although only 340,000 cases of AIDS have been reported to Geneva. In sub-Saharan Africa, 700,000 cases and 6 million carriers are estimated, including 500,000 infected infants. 15-20% of the workforce are predicted to die, leaving 10 million orphans within 10 years. HIV-related tuberculosis is a new problem. In Asia, there are estimated 500,000 people infected, mostly in Thailand, but also many in Bombay and Madras, India. Spread of HIV from prostitutes to migrant workers is a fear. In Latin America about 1 million are infected, with very high rates in some locations such as Haiti. Despite excellent interventions in Jamaica and Trinidad, infection rates are climbing. There are about 1 million infected in North America, 500,000 in Western Europe, largely limited to certain subgroups, and similar rates in Australia and New Zealand. Northern Africa, Eastern Europe and the USSR have much lower HIV prevalence so far. WHO predicts 15-20 million infected by 1995-2000.
New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 1991. , 48 p.Developing countries increased their commitment to implement population policies in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the support and guidance of UNFPA. These policies focused on improving, expanding, and integrating voluntary family planning services into social development. 1985-1990 data revealed that fertility began to fall in all major regions of the world. For example, fertility fell most in East Asia from 6.1-2.7 (1960-1965 to 1985-1990). This could not have occurred without strong, well managed family planning programs. Yet population continued to grow. This rapid growth hampered health and education, worsened environmental pollution and urban growth, and promoted political and economic instability. Therefore it is critical for developing countries to reduce fertility from 3.8-3.3 and increase in family planning use from 51-59% by 2000. These targets cannot be achieved, however, without government commitments to improving the status of women and maternal and child health and providing basic needs. They must also include promoting child survival and education. Further people must be able to make personal choices in their lives, especially in contraceptive use. Women are encouraged to participate in development and primary health care in Kerala State, India and Sri Lanka. The governments also provide effective family planning services. These approaches contributed significantly to improvements in fertility, literacy, and infant mortality. To achieve the targets, UNFPA estimated a doubling of funding to $9 billion/year by 2000. Lower costs can be achieved by involving the commercial sector and nongovernmental organizations, building in cost recovery in the distribution system of contraceptives, operating family planning services efficiently, and mixing contraceptive methods.