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An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1985. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1986. 3-7. (Cairo Demographic Centre Research Monograph Series No. 15.)On the 40th anniversary of the UN, demographers should pay special tribute to the UN's main demographic arm, the UN Population Division. There is no research worker in the field who has not learned from the Division's consecutive studies in mortality, fertility, migration, labor force, interrelationships with development factors, or the methodology of analysis from model life tables to stable population techniques or methods of assessment of the demographic impact of family planning. The author singles out the study entitled "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends," which provides a digest of the findings of scientific studies concerning the relationships between population variables and economic and social development factors. The expertise of the Population Division has been behind most of the international gatherings in the field, collaborating and contributing to their organization and conduct, starting with the Rome conference of 1954 to that of Belgrade in 1965 to the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974 and finally to the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. The Division's involvement in population and development and in population policies dates back to the early 1960s when the UN decided to pay due attention to the implications of population trends for development. A principal source of information in the policy area was, and still is, inquiry among governments concerning population and development and including population policies, conducted periodically by the Division as recommended by the World Population Plan of Action. The development of the UN population projections led to the important by-products of the manuals on demographic estimation and the development of computer programs for projections. Thus the stage was set for further development of work in this field from the 1970s until now: further methodological refinements, more information and substance to utilize in preparing the assumptions, more details, and more indicators.
In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England, George Allen and Unwin, 1986. 367-89.The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization, such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics, we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows, whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):35-43.The periodic assessment of global population growth from the past to the future has been one of the UN's most important contributions to member states and many other users. Available data and applicable analysis and projection methods were very limited in 1947, when the 1st global population estimates and projections were attempted. The 1st contributions of the Commission were manuals for these functions. Throughout the 1950s, 4 regional reports on Central and South America; Southeast Asia; and Asia and the far East were published. UN studies during this period tended to group regions by their position on a continuum of the demographic transition. Rough but alarming projections of population growth appeared. Projection technics were refined and standardized in the 1960s, and the demand grew for more specialized technics, e.g. dealing with urban/rural populations; the labor force; and other elements. The availability of computer technology at the end of the decade multiplied the projection capabilities, and the total population projections for the future were larger than ever. The 1970s projections, based on the more accurate and widely covered baseline data which had become available in developing countries, were also aided by more powerful and innovative indirect estimation technics; better software, and computers with larger capacities. By 1982, only a few countries were left with a total lack of data. A revision of estimates and projections is now undertaken biennially, incorporating the latest available data, utilizing advanced analytical methods and computer technology. Methodological manuals have been produced as the by-product of the revisions. UN demographic estimates and projections could be further improved by injection of a probabilistic element and the inclusion of economic factors. Roles for the future include maintenance of regional and interregional comparability of assumptions.
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):15-25.Over half of the 75 world cities projected to have populations exceeding 4 million by the year 2000 are in Asia. Asia's planners and city officials have developed and tested numerous policies and istruments for coping with rapid urban growth. These efforts have benefited from increased understanding of the demographic causes of urbanization, especially rural-urban migration. On an aggregate plane, the main consequences of urbanization have been metropolitanization, primacy, polarization, and centralization. Economic wealth, political power, and social status have become concentrated in capital cities; within cities, the increasing gap between privileged elites and impoverished masses has contributed to political radicalization among the poor. To cope with the problems of urbanization, many Asian authorities have set up metropolitan governments to handle area wide functions. Some cities have redefined their jurisdictions to incorporate outlying rural territories and small towns. The expansion of metropolitan jurisdiction prevents local government fragmentation and duplication of public services. It also allows for land-use controls over undeveloped areas that will be needed for urban expansion. In recent years, natural increase has been a more important factor in rapid urban growth than migration; thus, many Asian countries have adopted family planning programs to curb population growth. Most of the factors associated with declining fertility--educational achievement, employment of women, access to family planning services--are closely associated with urban culture, and urban fertility rates tend to be lower than those in rural areas. To be valid, urban policy goals must be integrated into broader development goals. Population issues permeate all stages of the planning process and should be viewed both as a cause and a consequence of economic and social development.
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
Population Today. 1986 Feb; 14(2):3, 8.The UN recently released its lastest population projection for 1985-2025. Although demographers remain uncertain about the future shape and rate of population growth, the UN figures are generally regarded as representing the state of the art in projection making. The UN makes medium, high, and low variant projections. According to the medium variant, the world population, in millions, will be 4,837 in 1985, 6,122 in 2000, 7,414 in 2015, and 8,206 in 2025. High and low variant projections, in millions, for 2025 are 9,088 and 7,358. The medium variant projection indicates that between 1985-2025 the population, in millions, will increase from 3,663-6,809 in the developing countries but only from 1,1754-1,396 in the developed countries. In other words, the proportion of the world's population residing in the developed countries will decrease from 24%-17% between 1985-2025. The world's growth rate will continue to decline as it has since it peaked at 2.1% in 1965-70. According to the medium variant, the projected growth rate for the world will be 1.63% between 1985-90, 1.58% between 1990-95, 1.38% between 2000-05, 1.18% between 2010-15, and 0.96 between 2020-25. The growth rate will decrease from 1.94%-1.10% for the developing countries and from 0.60%-0.29% for the developed countries between 1985-2025. The medium variant projections assume that the total fertility rate will decrease from 3.3 in 1985-90 to 2.8 in 2000-05 and to 2.4 in 2020-25. Respective figures are 3.7, 3.0, and 2.4 for the developing countries only and 2.0, 2.0, and 2.1 for the developed countries only. By 2025 the age structure of the developing countries is expected to be similar to the current age structure of the developed countries. In 2025, the 10 countries with the largest populations and their expected populations, in millions, will be China (1,475), India (1,229), USSR (368), Nigeria (338), US (312), Indonesia (273), Brazil (246), Bangladesh (219), Pakistan (210), and Mexico (154). The populations of some countries which are relatively small at the present time will be quite large in 2025. For example, the population, in millions, will be 111 for Ethiopia and 105 for Vietnam. The projections are summarized in 4 tables.