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Population and development in Africa, statement made at the Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 6 July 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 5 p.The United Nations estimated the population of Africa at 470 million in 1980, representing an addition of 250 million persons between 1950 and 1980. The average annual population growth rate has been continuously rising from about 2.1% during 1950-1955 to 3.0% now and is expected to decline only in the last decade of this century. As a result of this high growth rate, the population of this continent will have exceeded 850 million by the year 2000. The United Nations recently undertook an exercise to determine when and at what level the world population would stabilize; the population of Africa is likely to stabilize in the year 2110 at 2.2 billion. It is important to keep this long-term perspective in mind while discussing the issues of population and development. An improvement in the quality of life is considered crucial in bringing about a decline in fertility and mortality rates. It appears that the most important policy measures which can improve the quality of life are education, especially education of women, provision of health care resulting in reduced infant and child mortality rates and the elimination of malnutrition.
Report to ECOSOC, statement made to the Economic and Social Council at its Second Regular Session of 1981, United Nations, Geneva, 2 July 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 7 p.This statement discusses the vital role population problems and issues play in global development. The developing countries will be faced with population growth rates in the 1980s of around 2%/year. According to United Nations projections, the share of the total world population living in the developing countries would rise from 74% at present to 80% by the year 2000. A striking feature of the prospective future population growth is that the largest increases in population will occur in the poorest countries and regions of the world which also experienced the largest increases in recent decades. The various forces generated by population growth, the imbalance of resources and the lack of gainful employment opportunities will undoubtedly affect economic and social stability. In many developing countries, population pressures have been particularly acute in the cities, where increasing migration from the rural areas has caused social problems to be more severe. Recent projections prepared by the UN indicate that it will be possible to stabilize the world population between the latter part of the 21st and the 1st half of the 22nd century but only if the current level of population activities in various parts of the world can be maintained. However, there exists today considerable disparity between resources and demand for population assistance. This tight resource situation has necessitated that the Fund devote its major attention to building self-reliance in developing countries. The Fund's goals and policies are briefly outlined.
In: United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development. Population projections: problems and solutions. Report of the Workshop on Population Projections, Budapest, Hungary, 17-28 March 1980. New York, UN, 1981. 275-86.The UN computer projection program and how it can be used is described. Focus is on the basic design (or the model) of the program, input data requirements, types of output, various phases of the program operations, and the input card specifications. Several methods developed by the Secretariat for preparing fertility and mortality assumptions are reviewed. Some of these methods have been incorporated in the computer projection program. The component method is the method used in the projection program. The program utilizes the information on the age sex distribution of a population at a base date and assumed future levels and trends of fertility, mortality and migration to project the populations by age and sex over any desired projection period. The program provides either a forward projection, which projects the population to the future, or a backward projection, which reverse survives the population to past dates, or both. The program projects the population for every 5th year of the selected projection period. Thus the length of the period should be a multiple of 5 years. 4 types of input data are necessary in the projection: the base population and the fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. Accuracy of the base population data has an important bearing upon the projection's results. If no migration is assumed, migration input is not required. Migration inputs are the numbers of net migrants that are assumed to occur in a projection interval and to have survived to the end of that interval. Fertility inputs are made up of 2 parts: the sex ratio at birth and the quinquennial average age specific fertility rates for each projection interval. Mortality inputs also consist of 2 parts: the expectation of life at birth for each sex and the survival ratios by age and sex, for each projection interval. The computer program prints out all the input information, and output that will be generated by the program is listed. The operations of the program consist of 4 phases (input, projection, output, and continuation) and each of these is reviewed. The size of the computer projection program is about 130K. As this program was developed primarily for preparing world population projections at the UN, the primary considerations in programming are flexibility and efficiency and not size of the program. For use in the many developing countries which do not have a computer of the required memory capacity, a simplified computer projection program of a 64K size has been developed. The differences between the 2 programs are identified.
New York, UN, 1981. 101 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/78)The population estimates and projections presented in this report are based on the results of the 1980 assessment of demographic trends, which is the 8th round of such assessments undertaken by the United Nations. The majority of figures provided in the tables are based on available national data that have been evaluated and, whenever necessary, adjusted for deficiencies and inconsistencies. The component method of projection was used for all countries with a population generally of about 300,000 or more as of 1975. For smaller countries, the projections were prepared for the total population only by applying assumed rates of growth. According to the 1980 estimates and projections, the total population of the world is approximately 4432 million in 1980 with an annual rate of growth of 1.7%. This rate appears to be consistent with the gradual declining trend of the growth rate that began around the middle of the 1960s when the total population of the world was growing at an estimated rate of 2% annually. In the present projections (medium variant), it is assumed that the growth rate of the world population will be reduced to 1.5% by the end of the 20th century and to 1% by 2025. Accordingly, it is projected that the world population will increase to 6.1 billion in 2000 and 8.2 billion in 2025. For the world as a whole, the new estimates and projections indicate a slow but steady decline of the crude birth rate from 36.3/1000 in 1950-1955 to 28.5 in 1975-1980, then to 23.9 in 1995-2000, and finally to 17.9 in 2020-2025. At a global level, the world experienced an appreciable reduction in mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth from 47.1 years in 1950-1955 to 57.5 years in 1975-1980. The largest gains in mortality reduction, as was the case with fertility, have occurred among the less developed regions. It is anticipated that between 1980 and 2000 the major improvements in life expectancy will continue to occur in the less developed regions.
Estimates and projections of the number of households by country, 1975-2000 based on the 1973 assessment of population estimates and projections.
New York, UN, 1981 May 15. 76 p. (ESA/P/WP.73)The household estimates and projections presented in this report cover the period 1975-2000 and use the population estimates as assessed in 1978. The purpose of these household estimates is to respond to the need for demographic projections in terms of individual traits such as sex, age, labor force status, occupation, and urban-rural residential status and in terms of group characteristics such as the family and household composition. Families and households form the primary unit where individuals are socialized and interact with each other, and, consequently, can be considered as the molecular units of a population. The objectives of this report are to apply existing projections methods to available data, discuss the major problems encountered in their application, especially with regard to the estimation and projection of headship rates, and present the results. The detailed results are presented in tables and provide the total number of households, their annual rates of growth, and average household size by area, region, and country for each 5-year period between 1975 and 2000 according to medium, high, low, and constant variants. During the next 2 decades, it is expected that the number of households in the world will increase at a faster rate than the world's population. The total number of households of the world, which is estimated to have been about 909 million in 1975, is projected to increase by another 775 million (85%), reaching 1684 million by the turn of the century (medium variant). The range of the low and high variants is 1622 and 1754 million, respectively. The average household size for the world population is projected to decline from 4.4 persons in 1975 to 3.7 persons in the year 2000, reflecting the expected future fertility declines and the assumed increases in headship rates. The relatively rapid increases of households projected for the less developed regions is largely due to their high rates of population growth and to expected changes in headship rates. Among the 8 major areas of the world, the rate of increase in the number of households will be the highest in Africa and Latin America. The lowest average annual growth is expected in Europe.
Intercom. 1981 Jun; 9(6):8-9.A modest decline in the growth rates of developing countries has occurred in recent years. The principal reason for this has been a decline in fertility. Recently, reported changes in mortality trends have been noted, particularly mortality declines in many parts of the 3rd world. As indicated in a United Nations table of projected and reported crude birth, crude death, and population growth rates in the less developed countries (1960-1965 and 1970-1975), the United Nations foresaw a decline from 42.0/1000 to 39.0/1000--a decline of 3.0 points--between the 1960-1965 and 1970-1975 crude birth rates. However, by 1978 the reported 1960-1965 birth rate was actually 40/100 rather than 42.0/1000 and the 1960-1965 to 1970-1975 decline was 4.5 rather than 3.0 points. The United Nations projected the crude death rate to be around 18.8/1000 for 1960-1965. The expectation was that it would decline by 4.5 points to 14.3/1000 for 1970-1975. Instead, by 1978 the death rate decline had been only 3.6 points, from 16.8/1000 as then observed for 1960-1965 to 13.2/1000 in 1970-1975. This was 0.9 points less of a decrease than projected in 1968. As a result of these 2 influences working together, the 3rd world's population growth rate fell by 0.9 points between 1960-1965 and 1970-1975 instead of rising by the 1.5 points earlier foreseen. 37.5% of the divergence between the projected and realized population growth rates was attributable to the fact that the crude death rate declined less rapidly than anticipated. It is of considerable interest that the figures from the most widely used set of population estimates point to mortality in addition to fertility as a significant cause of the unexpected slow rate of population growth between the early 1960s and the early 1970s. Had it not been for the shower than expected mortality decline, there would have been no reduction in developing country population growth between 1960-1965 and 1970-1975.
[Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.