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Draft report of meeting; [United Nations Interagency Working Group on Demographic Estimates and Projections, tenth session, 12-14 November 1980, Bangkok].
Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, 1980. 18 p.Add to my documents.
New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities; London, England, Croom Helm, 1980. 215 p.The Arab population, consisting of 20 states and the people of Palestine, was almost 153 million in 1978 and is expected to reach 300 million by the year 2000. Most Arab countries have a high population growth rate of 3%, a young population structure with about 50% under age 15, a high rate of marriage, early age of marriage, large family size norm, and an agrarian rural community life, along with a high rate of urban expansion. Health patterns are also similar with epidemic diseases leading as causes of mortality and morbidity. But there is uneven distribution of wealth in the region with per capita annual income ranging from US$100 in Somalia to US$12,050 in Kuwait; health care is also more elaborate in the wealthier countries. Fertility rates are high in most countries, with crude birthrates about 45/1000 compared with 32/1000 in the world as a whole and 17/1000 in most developed countries. In many Arab countries up to 30-50% of total investment is involved in population-related activities compared to 15% in European countries. There is also increasing pressure in the educational and health systems with the same amount of professionals dealing with an increasing amount of people. Unplanned and excessive fertility also contributes to health problems for mothers and children with higher morbidity, mortality, and nutrition problems. Physical isolation of communities contributes to difficulties in spreading health care availability. Urban population is growing rapidly, 6%/year in most Arab cities, and at a rate of 10-15% in the cities of Kuwait and Qatar; this rate is not accompanied by sufficient urban planning policies or modernization. A unique population problem in this area is that of the over 2 million Palestinians living in and outside the Middle East who put demographic pressures on the Arab countries. 2 major constraints inhibit efforts to solve the Arab population problem: 1) the difficulty of actually reallocating the people to achieve more even distribution, and 2) cultural and political sensitivities. Since in the Arab countries fertility does not correlate well with social and economic indicators, it is possible that development alone will not reduce the fertility of the Arab countries unless rigorous and effective family planning policies are put into action.
[Unpublished] 1980 Dec. 183 p. (ADSS AID/DSPE-C-0053)A general report follows the "Executive Summary" of this evaluation of the World Fertility Survey (WFS). The general report covers the following: previous evaluations, terms of references, and composition and itinerary for the Evaluation Mission; background and objectives of WFS (origin of the program; objectives, priorities, and strategies); organization aspects of the WFS program (headquarters, country participation, operating procedures, survey organization, and coordination); inputs (scope of support to the program, procedures for provision of funds, headquarters costs, costs of country surveys, and complementary support to the program); methodological aspects of the program (sampling procedures; questionnaires, survey procedures, and basic documentation; data processing and archives; and production of the 1st country report); execution of national surveys (nature, character, and significance of WFS assistance; implementation of survey procedures); analysis (evaluative, illustrative, 2nd stage, and comparative analyses); building the national capability (contribution to survey taking capability, contribution to data processing capability, and contribution to analatical capability); dissemination of survey results (national meetings, limits of WFS participation in national dissemination activities, actual and potential audience for WFS survey results, and libraries in the WFS despository system); and use of WFS survey results. Conclusions are reported, recommendations are made, and country reports are included for the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, and the Philippines. The 1st objective of the WFS is to help countries acquire scientific information that will allow them to describe and interpret their populations' fertility, to identify meaningful differentials in patterns of fertility and fertility regulation, and to provide improved data in order to facilitate efforts in economic, social, and health planning. As of July 1980, a total of 36 less developed countries had completed fertility survey fieldwork, and of these 21 had published their First Country Report. The following were among the conclusions reached concerning this 1st objective: the sampling, training, field supervision, editing, and data processing standards set by the WFS for the national executing agencies were higher than those which characterized previous surveys; data processing was the major bottleneck in the participating countries during the surveys; and at all stages of the survey there was a conflict between the time constraints on completing the survey and getting the report out and the desire to rely as much as possible on local personnel. As far as utilization of WFS data, at this stage the Mission was able to evaluate only the short range use of the results.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations Economic Commission For Western Asia. 1980 Jun; 18:65-80.The United Nations Population Division has been preparing world population estimates and projections by region since 1951, by country since 1958, and by sex and age for each country since 1968. The latest revision of the projections was prepared in 1978. The 2 basic methods of preparing population projections are mathematical and component, and the component methods are most widely used at present, by both national governments and the United Nations. Before projections are prepared, the base data must be evaluated and adjusted. In the UN projections, the assumptions imply that orderly progress will be made and that there will be no catastrophes such as famines and epidemics during the projection period. The projectins are prepared in 4 variants--"medium", "high," "low," and "constant." A major source of uncertainty in populations arises from the problem of estimating future fertility. Changes in fertility affect the age distribution and the total population size more than changes in mortality. At the UN, mortality assumptions are initially made in terms of life expectancy at birth and then in terms of age-sex patterns of probabilities of survival corresponding to different life expectancy levels at birth. Some of the results of the 1978 revision of the medium variant of the estimates and projections are shown in table form. The world total population of 4,033,000,000 in 1975 is projected to reach 6,199,000,000 by the year 2000. Among the major areas and regions of the world, the most rapid population growth for the future is projected for the Arab countries, Africa and Latin America. Of the 2 Arab regions, North Africa and Southwest Asia, Southwest Asia is expected to have the higher rate of growth because of assumed continued immigration. Within the Arab regions, there has been an increasing diversity in the rate of population growth. This divergence is expected to narrow with assumed decreased migration rates during the 1980s.