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Genus. 2005 Jul-Dec; 61(3-4):111-140.At the end of 1951, in the first issue of the Population Bulletin, the United Nations published an article on the past and future growth of world population (United Nations, 1951). The article provided a "long-term view" of future population growth by projecting the population by groups of countries from 1950 to 1980. According to this first set of estimates and projections issued by the United Nations, the world population, which was estimated to be 2.4 billion in mid-1950, would increase by at least half a billion and at most 1.2 billion over the next 30 years, producing for 1980 a range of 3 billion to 3.6 billion people, with a "medium" value of 3.3 billion. A further scenario obtained by maintaining constant the vital rates estimated for the late 1940s produced a world population of 3.5 billion (table 1), The proceedings of the 1954 World Population Conference held in Rome included another set of population projections, updating the work published in 1951. The major difference between the two sets lies on an upward adjustment of the 1950 population of Asia that resulted in a world total closer to 2.5 billion and led to a larger population in 1980 (3.6 billion in the medium variant). Today, with the benefit of hindsight, we estimate that the world's population in 1950 was slightly over 2.5 billion and that it increased by 1.9 billion over the next 30 years, to reach 4.4 billion by 1980, a value higher than the highest projected at the time of the 1954 Conference. In reviewing past demographic trends, this paper will compare them with those expected by United Nations demographers in the 1950s and 1960s in order to understand better their assessment of how the demographic transition would proceed. (excerpt)
World population in 2300. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, United Nations Headquarters, New York.
New York, New York, United Nations, 2004 Mar 24 x, 36 p. (ESA/P/WP.187/Rev.1)In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of experts. The first meeting, the Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 30 June 2003 and provided consultation on the proposed assumptions and methodology for the projection exercise. The second meeting, the Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, was held at United Nations Headquarters on 9 December 2003. Its purpose was to examine the results of the long-range projections and to discuss lessons learned and policy implications. The Expert Group consisted of 30 invited experts participating in their personal capacity. Also attending were staff members of the Population Division and the Statistics Division, both part of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. This document presents the report of the meeting of the Expert Group on World Population in 2300, along with the background paper prepared by the Population Division and the questions addressed by the meeting. The Population Division drew valuable guidance from the deliberations at the meeting as well as from comments submitted in writing by the experts. All of these inputs will be taken into consideration in preparing the final report on the long-range projections, as well as in future projection exercises. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the preparation of the long-range projections. (excerpt)
TIDSSKRIFT FOR SAMFUNNSFORSKNING. 1998; 39(1):78-107.The article discusses the role of the United Nations' Population Commission through its first 50 years. The Commission has given advice on the development of population statistics, analyses, projections and policies. The Commission has also played an important role in the planning of and follow-up to the five World Population Conferences. The Commission has concentrated on problems faced by developing countries, including the role of family planning. The important link between population factors and development is emphasized in the 1995 change of name to the Commission for Population and Development. (EXCERPT) (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Population and development. Background paper for the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September 1994.
Copenhagen, Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida, 1994. , 63 p.This report identifies and discusses the central issues, problems, and contradictions in the population debate in order to provide background information for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and a basis for the development of Denmark's population policy. The introduction describes the 2 basic contradicting indicators of the unprecedented global annual growth rate of 93 million people and the equally unprecedented rapid decline in the total fertility rate in developing countries (from 6 in 1950 to 3.6 today). The next section deals with the links between population and development, including the risk of demographic traps and production and consumption traps. 6 major trends in population and sustainability are explored in terms of regional and national differences. Contradictions and myths in the population/development debate are then discussed. The third section of the report presents the demographic context including a short overview of population theories, the most recent global demographic projections, and the most important fertility determinants (infant and child mortality, the status of women, and the quality of services). Section 4 provides a discussion of the different approaches and rationales for the establishment of global and various national population policies and family planning (FP) programs. The final section is concerned with the transition from FP to sexual and reproductive health and rights. This discussion covers the role of vertical FP programs, integrated maternal-child health and FP services, and the transition to more comprehensive reproductive health services. Sexual and reproductive health is then considered within the gender framework and from a human rights perspective. Charts with data on population projections, the prevalence of contraceptive use in developing countries, and the total fertility rate since 1960 are appended.
An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1985. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1986. 3-7. (Cairo Demographic Centre Research Monograph Series No. 15.)On the 40th anniversary of the UN, demographers should pay special tribute to the UN's main demographic arm, the UN Population Division. There is no research worker in the field who has not learned from the Division's consecutive studies in mortality, fertility, migration, labor force, interrelationships with development factors, or the methodology of analysis from model life tables to stable population techniques or methods of assessment of the demographic impact of family planning. The author singles out the study entitled "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends," which provides a digest of the findings of scientific studies concerning the relationships between population variables and economic and social development factors. The expertise of the Population Division has been behind most of the international gatherings in the field, collaborating and contributing to their organization and conduct, starting with the Rome conference of 1954 to that of Belgrade in 1965 to the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974 and finally to the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. The Division's involvement in population and development and in population policies dates back to the early 1960s when the UN decided to pay due attention to the implications of population trends for development. A principal source of information in the policy area was, and still is, inquiry among governments concerning population and development and including population policies, conducted periodically by the Division as recommended by the World Population Plan of Action. The development of the UN population projections led to the important by-products of the manuals on demographic estimation and the development of computer programs for projections. Thus the stage was set for further development of work in this field from the 1970s until now: further methodological refinements, more information and substance to utilize in preparing the assumptions, more details, and more indicators.
[World population and development: an important change in perspective] Population mondiale et developpement: un important changement de perspective.
Problemes Economiques. 1984 Oct 24; (1895):26-32.The International Population Conference in Mexico City was much less controversial than the World Population Conference in Bucharest 10 years previously, in part because the message of Bucharest was widely accepted and in part because of changes that occurred in the demographic and economic situations in the succeeding decade. The UN medium population projection for 1985 has been proved quite accurate; it is not as alarming as the high projection but still represents a doubling of world population in less than 40 years. The control of fertility upon which the medium projection was predicated is well underway. The movement from high to low rates of fertility and mortality began in the 18th century in the industrial countries and lasted about 1 1/2 centuries during which the population surplus was dispersed throughout the world, especially in North and South America. The 2nd phase of movement from high to low rates currently underway in the developing countries has produced a far greater population increase. The proportion of the population in the developed areas of Europe, North America, the USSR, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will decline from about 1/3 of the 2.5 billion world population of 1950 to 1/4 of the 3.7 billion of 1985, to 1/5 of the 4.8 billion of 2000, and probably 1/7 of the 10 billion when world population stabilizes at the end of the next century. The growth rates of developing countries are not homogeneous; the populations of China and India have roughly doubled in the past 35 years while that of Latin America has multiplied by 2 1/2. The population of Africa more than doubled in 35 years and will almost triple by 2025. The number of countries with over 50 million inhabitants, 9 in 1950, will increase from 19 in 1985 to 32 in 2025. The process of urbanization is almost complete in the industrialized countries, with about 75% of the population urban in 1985, but urban populations will continue to grow rapidly in the developing countries as rural migration is added to natural increase. The number of cities with 10 million inhabitants has increased from 2 to 13 between 1950 and 1985, and is expected to reach 25 by 2000, with Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Shanghai the world's largest cities. The peak rate of world population growth was reached in the 1960s, with annual increases of 2.4%. In 1980-85 in the developed and developing worlds respectively the rates of population growth were .7% and 2.0%/year; total fertility rates were 2.05 and 4.2, and the life expectancies at birth were 72.4 and 57.0. Considerable variations occurred in individual countries. Annual rates of growth in 1980-85 were 2.4% in Latin America, 3.0% in Africa, 2.2% in South Asia and 1.2% in East Asia. Today only Iran among high fertility countries pursues a pronatalist policy. Since Bucharest, it has become evident to developing and developed countries alike that population control and economic development must go hand in hand.
New York, New York, United Nations 1984. 45 p. (Official Records, 1984, Supplement No. 2 E/1984/12 E./CN. 9/1984/9)The report of the 22nd session of the United Nations Population Commission includes the opening statements by the Under Secretary General for International Economic and Social Affairs, the Under Secretary General for Technical Cooperation for Development, the Director of the Population Division, and the Assistant Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. These are followed by a description of the actions taken by the United Nations to implement the recommendations of the World Population Conference, 1974. A report on the progress of ongoing work in the field of population summarized for the following categories: 1) world demographic analysis; 2) demographic projections; 3) population policies; 4) population and development; 5) monitoring of population trends and policies; 6) factors affecting patterns of reproduction; 7) dissemination of population information; 8) technical cooperation; and 9) demograpahic statistics. Programs of work in the field of population for the biennium 1984-1985 and medium-term plan for the period 1984-1989 are provided for each of the 9 preceding categories as well as a consideration of draft proposals and a report on the continuity of work. The report concludes with the organization, attendance, and agenda of the session.
China Population Newsletter. 1984 Aug; 1(3):1-3.In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.
In: State of the world 1985. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society [by] Lester R. Brown, Edward C. Wolf, Linda Starke, William U. Chandler, Christopher Flavin, Sandra Postel, Cynthia Pollack. New York, New York, W.W. Norton, 1985. 200-21.The demographic contrasts of the 1980s are placing considerable stress on the international economic system and on national political structures. Runaway population growth is indirectly fueling the debt crisis by increasing the need for imported food and other basic commodities. Low fertility countries are food aid donors, and the higher fertility countries are the recipients. In most countries with high fertility, food production per person is either stagnant or declining. Population policy is becoming a priority of national governments and international development agencies. This discussion reviews what has happened since the UN's first World Population Conference in 1974 in Bucharest, fertility trends and projections, social influences on fertility, advances in contraceptive technology, and 2 major family planning gaps -- the gap between the demand for family planning services and their availability and the gap between the societal need to slow population growth quickly and the private interests of couples in doing so. The official purpose of the 1984 UN International Conference on Population convened in Mexico City, in which 149 countries participated, was to review the world population plan of action adopted at Bucharest. In Bucharest there had been a wide political schism between the representatives of industrial countries, who pushed for an increase in 3rd world family planning efforts, and those from developing countries, whose leaders argued that social and economic progress was the key to slowing population growth. In Mexico City this division had virtually disappeared. Many things had happened since Bucharest to foster the attitude change. The costly consequences of continuing rapid population growth that had seemed so theoretical in the 1974 debate were becoming increasingly real for many. World population in 1984 totaled 4.76 billion, an increase of some 81 million in 1 year. The population projections for the industrial countries and East Asia seem reasonable enough in terms of what local resource and life support systems can sustain, but those for much of the rest of the world do not. Most demographers are still projecting that world population will continue growing until it reaches some 10 billion, but that most of the 5.3 billion additional people will be concentrated in a few regions, principally the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. What demographers are projecting does not mesh with what ecologists or agronomists are reporting. In too many countries ecological deterioration is translating into economic decline which in turn leads to social disintegration. The social indicator that correlates most closely with declining fertility across the whole range of development is the education of women. Worldwide, sterilization protects more couples from unwanted pregnancy than any other practice. Oral contraceptives rank second. The rapid growth now confronting the world community argues for effective family planning programs.
Statement by the Head of Delegation of the Republic of Korea at the International Conference on Population (ICP).
[Unpublished] 1984 Aug. Presented at the International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August 6-13, 1984. 3 p.In a 5-year plan, the Korean government has integrated family planning programs, including maternal and child health, medical insurance, and social welfare programs, into its primary health ervices in order to reach its hard-core low-income residents in both urban and rural areas. The Korea Women's Development Institute was established in 1982 to enchance the status of women, and the Labor Standard Law has been revised to try to overcome deep-rooted son-preference among Korean parenst. Migration out of rural areas is creating rural manpower problems, and stepped-up rural community development programs are planned. Population predictions by the mid-21st century stand at 61 million, too great for a country with such limited natural resources to support. Korea recommends an exchange of information on population and development between all countries, the setting aside of 1% of each country's annual budget for national population programs, and convening the world population conference every 5 instead of every 10 years so that more progress can be made in solving the problem.
[World population growth and questions of population policy] Rost mirovogo naseleniya i voprosy demograficheskoi politiki
Narodonaselenie. 1982; (39):3-20.World population trends during the past century are briefly reviewed, and U.N. projections to the year 2000 are presented. Population policy topics that have been discussed at the 1954, 1965, and 1974 World Population Conferences are outlined, with a focus on U.N. socioeconomic surveys. (ANNOTATION)