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Fertility rates and population projections: why the United Nations low population projection is best. Draft.
[Unpublished] 1994 Mar 23.  p.This paper stems from study on world food needs in the next century. Of course in a study of this nature population projections are essential. The writer used the United Nations medium population projections, illustrated in figure 1, as an authoritative source. Like everyone else of whom we are aware, the author assumed that the United Nations "medium" projection is the best estimate, in the sense of highest probability, in the opinion of the United Nations population experts. Since the medium projection closely corresponds to the World Bank's population projection (they provide only one) through to 2025 the assumption is further justified--and, apparently, supported by the independent opinion of the World Bank experts. (excerpt)
Tokyo, Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1991 Feb 22. , 143 p. (Research Series No. 267)According to the UN Population Projections of 1990, the world population of 5 billion, 292 million, 200 thousand in 1990 will reach 6 billion, 260 million, 800 thousand in the year 2000 with an annual increase rate of about 100 million. 94% of the increase will be in developing countries. In the year, 2025, the world population will be 8 billion, 54 million. 96% of the increase between 2000 and 2025 will also be in developing countries. The ratio of the population of developing countries to the world population was 77% in 1990 and will be 80% and 84% in 2000 and 2025 respectively. The new UN projections added about 10 million to the previous figure projected for 2000 and 38 million to the same for 2025. The World Bank's Projections are 6 billion 204 for the year 2000 and 8 billion 15 million for 2025. Their figures are slightly smaller than UN figures. Their data also include Taiwan and socio-economic group specific population, both of which are not found in UN data. In 2150, the world population is projected to be 11 billion 499 million with all of the increase from 2050 to 150 taking place in the developing region. According to high medium, and low variants in the UN projections, world population in 2020 will be 9 billion 400 million, 8 billion 500 million, and 7 billion 600 million respectively. Asian population, which constituted 55% of the world population in 1950, will be 59% in 1990. Since 1980, Southern Asia and Africa have seen the highest increase rates. African population, which was 9% in 1950 and 12% in 1990, will increase to 19% in 2025. After 2000, population in some regions of Europe will decrease as it will in Japan after 2010. The world population as a whole changed from high fertility and high mortality to high fertility and low mortality and then to low fertility and low mortality. In 1990, the population pyramid of developing nations was expansive triangular, while that of highly industrialized nations was constructive high rise or near stationary. The age specific ratio in industrialized regions will be 13% in 2000 and 18-19% in 2025.
Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
World population projections, 1992-93 edition. Estimates and projections with related demographic statistics.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1992. vii, 515 p.Statistical tales provided population projections every 5 years between 1985 and 2030 and every 25 years between 1985 and 2150. Data were also given for the birth, death, natural increase, net migration, growth, fertility, net reproduction, and infant mortality rates. The projections were an update of this series in 1990, and take into account the impact of AIDS; other changes included the inclusion of the 15 countries of the former Soviet Union, the combined Germanys and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Croatia and Slovenia. The overview of trends and projections indicated that Southeast Asia and Latin America have had rapid mortality and fertility decline, while most sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have had little change. Population growth for mid-1992 was estimated to be 5.44 billion. the projection for the year 2000 was 6.17 billion, which was a 12% increase over 1992 figures. 8.34 billion was the expected population for 2025, and 12.2 billion for 2050, of which 88% would be in countries currently defined as developing. The difference between these projections and those previously published in the 1989-90 edition was minimal for more developed countries, and lower for less developed countries due to the impact of AIDS. Population concentration is currently 59% in Asia, 15% in Europe, 14% in America, 12% in Africa, and 1% in Oceania. Changes will occur such that Africa's population will double, Europe's will be halved, and Asia's will remain stable. The fastest growing region in Africa in East Africa, followed by West Africa and then North Africa in 1992. The lowest growth rates in 1992 are in Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Without China and India, the highest growth rates are found among low income countries. Upper income countries have only 10% of total world population. The population under 15 years of age is expected to decrease from 32% in 1992 to 25% in 2025; conversely, the elderly population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase from 6% in 1992 to 10% in 2025. Life expectancy is highest in Japan at 79 years and lowest in Guinea-Bissau at 39 years. The largest difference in life expectancy between men and women is in the Russian Federation at 10.5 years. There is low fertility, mortality, and slow growth in the Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova; moderate growth in Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan; and mid to high fertility in the other republics.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, 1989 Dec. , 30 p. (Policy, Planning and Research Working Papers, WPS 337)On the basis of an assumption of the persistence of current demographic trends, a model is presented for the projection of short-term (1-2 decades) and long-term (1-2 centuries) mortality rates. Essentially, the model refines calculations of male and female life expectancy and takes infant mortality into account in the selection of the appropriate life tables. The analysis of data from developed and developing countries suggests a short-term life expectancy of 82.5 years and a long-term life expectancy of 90 years for women; male life expectancy is 6.7 years lower. For short-term predictions, the rate of change in the preceding 5 years and the proportion of females enrolled in secondary school are most significant. In terms of infant mortality, the rate is expected to decline to 6/1000 in the short-term and 3/1000 in the long- term. A split life table approach is then used, in which the infant mortality rate determines the level to select for mortality at the younger ages and life expectancy is the basis for level selection at the older ages. Application of this projection approach to 8 countries-- Zaire, Bolivia, Ghana, Pakistan, Thailand, Poland, Costa Rica, and Norway--produced mortality estimates that were within 2 percentage points of existing estimates. Infant mortality projections show a greater deviation, with faster falls than suggested by current World Bank estimates. A rapid mortality decline assumption allows life expectancy to be up to 6% higher in 1985-2100, the crude death rate up to 30% lower, and the infant mortality rate up to 50% lower, resulting overall in a population 8% above that expected under conditions of a medium decline. A slow decline pattern allows life expectancy to be 10% lower, the crude death rate up to 50% higher, and the infant mortality rate up to 170% higher than under conditions of medium mortality declines and produces a 13% population decline.
POPULATION TODAY. 1988 Jan; 16(1):3-4.Summary data are presented from the World Bank's "World Population 1987-88: Short and Long-Term Estimates by Age and Sex with Related Demographic Statistics." The projections do not differ much from those in the World Bank's 1985 projection except for large upward revisions for South Asian and West Asian countries and especially large upward revisions for Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Egypt. World population is expected to reach 10.4 billion in 2100 and to stabilize at 10 billion around year 2070. Intermediate figures are given for year 2000 (6.2 billion) and year 2050 (9.5 billion). The fifteen most populous countries in 2100 will be (in millions) China (1683), India (1678), Nigeria (529), Pakistan (395), USSR (385), Indonesia (363), Brazil (292), US (279), Ethiopia (204), Mexico (197), Iran (157), Philippines (137), Egypt (132), Japan (124), and Tanzania (123). The world's annual growth rate (currently 1.7%) will decrease to .9% in 2025 and .07% in 2100 due to decreasing birth rates, especially in Africa. Nevertheless, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will be 5 times its present size. The slowest annual growth will be for Europe, North America, and China; and the highest for Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
Baltimore, Maryland/London, England, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988. lvi, 439 p.This is the tenth in a series of population projections prepared by the World Bank and the third to be published separately. The introduction summarizes the methodology and assumptions and also "presents a brief history of the Bank's projections, delineates the sources of the principal data used, compares the Bank's estimates with those of the United Nations and other organizations, and provides summary demographic information on the new country groupings (by World Bank operational region and department) created by the recent reorganization of the Bank." The projections are given by age group and sex for five-year intervals up to the year 2030 for countries and regions. (EXCERPT)
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):15-25.Over half of the 75 world cities projected to have populations exceeding 4 million by the year 2000 are in Asia. Asia's planners and city officials have developed and tested numerous policies and istruments for coping with rapid urban growth. These efforts have benefited from increased understanding of the demographic causes of urbanization, especially rural-urban migration. On an aggregate plane, the main consequences of urbanization have been metropolitanization, primacy, polarization, and centralization. Economic wealth, political power, and social status have become concentrated in capital cities; within cities, the increasing gap between privileged elites and impoverished masses has contributed to political radicalization among the poor. To cope with the problems of urbanization, many Asian authorities have set up metropolitan governments to handle area wide functions. Some cities have redefined their jurisdictions to incorporate outlying rural territories and small towns. The expansion of metropolitan jurisdiction prevents local government fragmentation and duplication of public services. It also allows for land-use controls over undeveloped areas that will be needed for urban expansion. In recent years, natural increase has been a more important factor in rapid urban growth than migration; thus, many Asian countries have adopted family planning programs to curb population growth. Most of the factors associated with declining fertility--educational achievement, employment of women, access to family planning services--are closely associated with urban culture, and urban fertility rates tend to be lower than those in rural areas. To be valid, urban policy goals must be integrated into broader development goals. Population issues permeate all stages of the planning process and should be viewed both as a cause and a consequence of economic and social development.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
Community Development Journal. 1983; 18(2):104-19.A review of demographic trends and health and social problems in the fast growing urban areas of the world indicates that, in the future, increasing numbers of people will be living in precarious socioeconomic conditions which impede the achievement of health. It is estimated that from 4.4 billion in 1980 the world's population will increase to 6.2 billion by the year 2000. The urban population will increase from 1.8 to 3.2 billion during the same period, over 2 billion of which will be in developing countries. The rapid and often uncontrollable demographic growth of cities, especially in the developing world, stimulates the demand for resources, intensifies their utilization and creates an intolerable pressure on the urban infrastructure and physical environment. A number of action oriented projects to combat disease and contamination have been successful. Projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Hyderabad, India, Guayaquil, Ecuador, Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro have been implemented under a partnership among WHO, UNICEF, the Netherlands Aid Agency, the World Bank, and other international organizationals and governments. These projects all emphasize the fundamental role of community organizations, especially that of women; low-cost technology and the need to mobilize and efficiently use locally available resources; an ecological multisectoral concept of health whereby action concerning the environment, education, income generation and the availability of food, all with a powerful disease preventive potential, carry equal if not greater weight than the efforts to provide the population with health centers or implement curative practices. All these projects are focused on marginal groups; many were initiated by imaginative individuals or groups with a considerable amount of social orientation and motivation, and often, at least in the beginning, without the support of governments, nongovernmental or international organizations. It is important to study these projects in their accomplishments and failures; to help describe them and disseminate related information when appropriate; and to promote political and technical support for those which are successful so that they can rapidly come out of the experimental/demonstration phase and be expanded to become part of routine programs.