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Commission gives high priority to monitoring global trends - UN Population Commission meeting, Mar 28-31, 1994 - includes information on preparation of action program to be recommended at the Sep 5-13, 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, Egypt.
UN Chronicle. 1994 Jun; 31(2): p..The effect of population growth on the environment, the role and status of women, and the demographic implications of development Policies were among major topics discussed by the Population Commission at its twenty-seventh session (28-31 March, New York). "The most important lesson we have learned is that population growth and other demographic trends can only be affected by investing in people and by promoting equality between women and men", Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Secretary-General of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, told the 26-member body. In the single text approved during the session, for adoption by the Economic and Social Council, the Commission asked that high priority be given to monitoring world population trends and policies, and to strengthening multilateral technical cooperation to address population concerns. (excerpt)
New York, New York, UNFPA, . , 33 p.A United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) mission to Albania in 1989 attempted to identify the country's priority population issues and goals. Albania, a socialist country, has made many accomplishments, including an administrative structure that extends down to the village level, no foreign debt, universal literacy, a low death rate (5.4/1000), and involvement of women in development. At the same time, the country has the highest birth rate in Europe (25.5/1000), a high incidence of illegal abortion, lack of access to modern methods of contraception, and inadequate technology in areas such as medical equipment and data collection. Albania's population policy is aimed at maintaining the birth rate at its current level, reducing morality, and lowering the abortion rate by 50% by 1995. Goals for the health sector include increasing life expectancy, reducing infant and maternal mortality, improving the quality of health services, and decreasing the gap between the standard of living in rural and urban areas. Family planning is not allowed except for health reasons. Depending on trends in the total fertility rate, Albania's population in the year 2025 could be as low as 4.6 million or as high as 5.4 million. Albania has expressed an interest in collaborating with UN agencies in technical cooperation projects. The UNFPA mission recommended that support should be provided for the creation of a population database and analysis system for the Government's 1991-95 development plan. Also recommended was support to the Enver Hoxha University's program of strengthening the teaching of population dynamics and demographic research. Other recommendations included activities to strengthen maternal care/child spacing activities, IEC projects, and to raise the status of women.
ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL. 1992 Dec; 7(4):61-80.The State Statistical Office with the support of UNDESD and UNFPA prepared 3 projections. A standard cohort component method was used to project populations by sex and 5-year age groups for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019. 3 hypotheses were proposed. In Hypothesis 1, fertility was assumed to stabilize at a level of a TFR of 3.5 children per woman. In Hypothesis 3, fertility was assumed to decline up to the period 1990-2004 and up to the replacement level (2.23 children per woman during that period). Hypothesis 2 represents an intermediate situation between Hypothesis 1 and 3 which was considered as the most plausible future trend of fertility. According to Projection 2 the population of Mongolia will be almost 3.8 million in the year 2019. Projections 1 and 3 give total populations of 4.2 and 3.5 million, respectively. The difference between a TFR of 2.2 and 3.5 for the last quinquennium of the projection period resulted in a difference of around 700,000 people. The difference between Projections 1 and 2 is about 400,000 people. Considering the fertility assumptions adopted for these projections, it is not very likely that the size of the population at the turn of the century will be much smaller than 2.6 million or larger than 3 million. What is more uncertain is the scenario for the 2nd decade of next century. During the next 2 decades, the growth will become gradually more moderate. The main changes will be an increase in the proportion of the population between 15 and 64 years of age, a decline in the proportion of the young population of the young population resulting in a substantial decrease of the dependency ratio and an increase in the median age of the population. According to the 3 hypotheses, the young population will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. There will be a decline in the proportion of young to old people and an increase in the proportion of the population in the working age groups. Yet, all age groups will continue to increase in absolute terms. International migration may produce some deviations in this expected profile.
New York, New York, UNFPA, . vii, 91 p. (Report)An UNFPA team visited Pakistan in 1991 to evaluate Pakistan's contraceptive requirements and logistics management needs through 2000. It discussed its findings in a report. The 1st demographic projection conducted by the team estimated population growth rates of 2.6% in 1997-1998 and 2.5% in 1999-2000. In order for this projection to actually occur, the contraceptive prevalence rate in Pakistan must increase 3%/year. Yet this rate has hardly ever lasted in a country beyond 5 years. Further, to make it possible for a 3% increase/year, Pakistan needs US$ 17 million worth of contraceptives/years. It presumes contraceptive costs, excluding sterilization and the commercial sector, of US$ 39 million/year. The 2nd demographic projection resulted in a 2% increase/year in contraceptive prevalence. Several countries have been able to maintain this rate for at least 10 years. This projection estimated a population growth rate of 2.68%/year. It needs US$ 14 in contraceptives each year. Contraceptive costs would be US$ 35 million. The team also used procurement analysis tables to determine contraceptive needs. They predicted US$ 18 million of additional contraceptives for the rest of fiscal 1991-1992 and the next 2 fiscal years. Donors appeared to be interested in carrying on needed management information system technical assistance. The current logistics management of moving contraceptive stocks from the Ministry of Population Welfare to Ministry of Health outlets tended to problematic. The team suggested that UNFPA help the government coordinate procurement of donated contraceptives. Further UNFPA should encourage early implementation of an IUD follow up study and inform donors on the effect of recent price increases for oral contraceptives (OCs) and condoms. Plants in Pakistan manufacture or package OCs and injectables and Pakistan will eventually be self sufficient in OCs and injectables. The team did not foresee immediate local condom production, however.
New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 1991. , 48 p.Developing countries increased their commitment to implement population policies in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the support and guidance of UNFPA. These policies focused on improving, expanding, and integrating voluntary family planning services into social development. 1985-1990 data revealed that fertility began to fall in all major regions of the world. For example, fertility fell most in East Asia from 6.1-2.7 (1960-1965 to 1985-1990). This could not have occurred without strong, well managed family planning programs. Yet population continued to grow. This rapid growth hampered health and education, worsened environmental pollution and urban growth, and promoted political and economic instability. Therefore it is critical for developing countries to reduce fertility from 3.8-3.3 and increase in family planning use from 51-59% by 2000. These targets cannot be achieved, however, without government commitments to improving the status of women and maternal and child health and providing basic needs. They must also include promoting child survival and education. Further people must be able to make personal choices in their lives, especially in contraceptive use. Women are encouraged to participate in development and primary health care in Kerala State, India and Sri Lanka. The governments also provide effective family planning services. These approaches contributed significantly to improvements in fertility, literacy, and infant mortality. To achieve the targets, UNFPA estimated a doubling of funding to $9 billion/year by 2000. Lower costs can be achieved by involving the commercial sector and nongovernmental organizations, building in cost recovery in the distribution system of contraceptives, operating family planning services efficiently, and mixing contraceptive methods.
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
Editorial Research Reports. 1985; 2(20):887-904.The author discusses aspects of urbanization, living conditions in urban centers, and selected policies, summarizing findings from recently published sources. U.N. population projections for selected urban areas for the year 2000 are compared with 1950 estimates, and the proportions of the population living in urban areas in various regions of the world are contrasted. Attention is given to living conditions in rapidly growing and crowded cities, including Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Lagos, Nigeria; and Cairo, Egypt. Statements on urban growth issued by the U.N. Fund for Population Activities are considered.
Report on the evaluation of SEN/77/P04: population/socio-spatial/regional planning (population/amenagement du territoire).
New York, New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1984 Dec. xiii, 34,  p.The Senegal population/socio-spatial/regional planning project illustrates a truly integrated approach to population and development planning. The evaluation Mission concluded overall that the project's achievements are positive. The project's main accomplishments have been the establishment of a sophisticated population data bank, the preparation of national and regional population projections, an analysis of migration movements, and the production of related maps and tables using primarily 2ndary data sources. The technical quality and detail of the work undertaken, as well as its potential usefulness, were high. However, the Mission also found that various constraints specific to this project have considerably limited its achievements. These include inadequately formulated project objectives and planned activities, poorly defined conceptual framework, low absorptive capacity of the implementing agency, and severe United Nations Fund for Population Activities budget reductions. The value of the work was found to be lessened because the data assembled have not yet been systematically integrated into other relevant data banks, properly disseminated or utilized. The Mission recommended measures which will help conserve the valuable data bank and other results of the project and will assist in the transfer to nationals of the knowledge and skills to update and utilize the data bank. Limited outside assistance--financial and technical--is needed for some of the recommended measures.
Report of the Second African Population Conference: organized in co-operation with the United Nations Fund for Population Activities and the government of the United Republic of Tanzania (Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, 9-13 January 1984)
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa [ECA], 1984. 20, ; 158, 29 p. (no. ST/ECA/POP/1)This two-volume work contains the proceedings of the Second African Population Conference, held in Arusha, Tanzania, in January 1984. Vol. 1 includes summaries of the inaugural address and of the discussions at earlier meetings, a summary of the country statements submitted, and the text of the Kilimanjaro Programme of Action for African Population and Self-Reliant Development. Vol. 2 includes papers on the demographic situation in Africa and future population trends; the relationship between population and development; spatial distribution; family health, welfare, and family planning; the role of women in development; UNFPA assistance programs in Africa; and priorities in population programs in Africa.
Population and development in Africa, statement made at the Parliamentary Conference on Population and Development in Africa, Nairobi, Kenya, 6 July 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 5 p.The United Nations estimated the population of Africa at 470 million in 1980, representing an addition of 250 million persons between 1950 and 1980. The average annual population growth rate has been continuously rising from about 2.1% during 1950-1955 to 3.0% now and is expected to decline only in the last decade of this century. As a result of this high growth rate, the population of this continent will have exceeded 850 million by the year 2000. The United Nations recently undertook an exercise to determine when and at what level the world population would stabilize; the population of Africa is likely to stabilize in the year 2110 at 2.2 billion. It is important to keep this long-term perspective in mind while discussing the issues of population and development. An improvement in the quality of life is considered crucial in bringing about a decline in fertility and mortality rates. It appears that the most important policy measures which can improve the quality of life are education, especially education of women, provision of health care resulting in reduced infant and child mortality rates and the elimination of malnutrition.
Report to ECOSOC, statement made to the Economic and Social Council at its Second Regular Session of 1981, United Nations, Geneva, 2 July 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 7 p.This statement discusses the vital role population problems and issues play in global development. The developing countries will be faced with population growth rates in the 1980s of around 2%/year. According to United Nations projections, the share of the total world population living in the developing countries would rise from 74% at present to 80% by the year 2000. A striking feature of the prospective future population growth is that the largest increases in population will occur in the poorest countries and regions of the world which also experienced the largest increases in recent decades. The various forces generated by population growth, the imbalance of resources and the lack of gainful employment opportunities will undoubtedly affect economic and social stability. In many developing countries, population pressures have been particularly acute in the cities, where increasing migration from the rural areas has caused social problems to be more severe. Recent projections prepared by the UN indicate that it will be possible to stabilize the world population between the latter part of the 21st and the 1st half of the 22nd century but only if the current level of population activities in various parts of the world can be maintained. However, there exists today considerable disparity between resources and demand for population assistance. This tight resource situation has necessitated that the Fund devote its major attention to building self-reliance in developing countries. The Fund's goals and policies are briefly outlined.
New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities; London, England, Croom Helm, 1980. 215 p.The Arab population, consisting of 20 states and the people of Palestine, was almost 153 million in 1978 and is expected to reach 300 million by the year 2000. Most Arab countries have a high population growth rate of 3%, a young population structure with about 50% under age 15, a high rate of marriage, early age of marriage, large family size norm, and an agrarian rural community life, along with a high rate of urban expansion. Health patterns are also similar with epidemic diseases leading as causes of mortality and morbidity. But there is uneven distribution of wealth in the region with per capita annual income ranging from US$100 in Somalia to US$12,050 in Kuwait; health care is also more elaborate in the wealthier countries. Fertility rates are high in most countries, with crude birthrates about 45/1000 compared with 32/1000 in the world as a whole and 17/1000 in most developed countries. In many Arab countries up to 30-50% of total investment is involved in population-related activities compared to 15% in European countries. There is also increasing pressure in the educational and health systems with the same amount of professionals dealing with an increasing amount of people. Unplanned and excessive fertility also contributes to health problems for mothers and children with higher morbidity, mortality, and nutrition problems. Physical isolation of communities contributes to difficulties in spreading health care availability. Urban population is growing rapidly, 6%/year in most Arab cities, and at a rate of 10-15% in the cities of Kuwait and Qatar; this rate is not accompanied by sufficient urban planning policies or modernization. A unique population problem in this area is that of the over 2 million Palestinians living in and outside the Middle East who put demographic pressures on the Arab countries. 2 major constraints inhibit efforts to solve the Arab population problem: 1) the difficulty of actually reallocating the people to achieve more even distribution, and 2) cultural and political sensitivities. Since in the Arab countries fertility does not correlate well with social and economic indicators, it is possible that development alone will not reduce the fertility of the Arab countries unless rigorous and effective family planning policies are put into action.
New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA], 1982. 13 p. (Speech Series No. 79)The last decade of population control activity has proven that even poor rual populations, which are usually the most conservative groups, will change their fertility behavior under the right conditions since the transition from large to small families depends on the level of social development, including nutrition, health, education, housing, employment, and the needs of women. Yet population growth must continue to be taken seriously since UN figures show that it will continue in Asia until the end of the 21st century when Asia's population will be about 6 billion compared to 2.5 billion today. Growth will not be evenly spread throughout the region. East Asia will grow slowly but South Asia will rise from 1.4 billion in 1980 to 4.1 billion before stabilizing, and some countries have maintained an unchanged growth rate since the 1960s. Family planning delivery methods must continue to try to reach the rural population whose birth rate is highest. Low rates of maternal mortality are also crucial to population programs and birth spacing is an important factor in solving this problem. Migration to the cities was also a problem in the 1970s and better conditions in rural areas might help in solving this. Their growing number of elderly people must also be considered in population policy development. Although progress has been made in controlling population, population factors have not yet successfully been made part of the development planning process; it should be made clear on all levels that population has a pre-emptive claim on national resources. The extension of population programs has produced an increased demand for financial resources, technology, and human skills. Government expenditures for population programs doubled in the many countries in the 1970s while international assistance fell due to recession. The UN Fund for Population Activities is helping to cross-fertilize ideas by training experts from other countries in the region to increase regional self-reliance.