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Fertility rates and population projections: why the United Nations low population projection is best. Draft.
[Unpublished] 1994 Mar 23.  p.This paper stems from study on world food needs in the next century. Of course in a study of this nature population projections are essential. The writer used the United Nations medium population projections, illustrated in figure 1, as an authoritative source. Like everyone else of whom we are aware, the author assumed that the United Nations "medium" projection is the best estimate, in the sense of highest probability, in the opinion of the United Nations population experts. Since the medium projection closely corresponds to the World Bank's population projection (they provide only one) through to 2025 the assumption is further justified--and, apparently, supported by the independent opinion of the World Bank experts. (excerpt)