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Fertility rates and population projections: why the United Nations low population projection is best. Draft.
[Unpublished] 1994 Mar 23.  p.This paper stems from study on world food needs in the next century. Of course in a study of this nature population projections are essential. The writer used the United Nations medium population projections, illustrated in figure 1, as an authoritative source. Like everyone else of whom we are aware, the author assumed that the United Nations "medium" projection is the best estimate, in the sense of highest probability, in the opinion of the United Nations population experts. Since the medium projection closely corresponds to the World Bank's population projection (they provide only one) through to 2025 the assumption is further justified--and, apparently, supported by the independent opinion of the World Bank experts. (excerpt)
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, 1989 Dec. , 30 p. (Policy, Planning and Research Working Papers, WPS 337)On the basis of an assumption of the persistence of current demographic trends, a model is presented for the projection of short-term (1-2 decades) and long-term (1-2 centuries) mortality rates. Essentially, the model refines calculations of male and female life expectancy and takes infant mortality into account in the selection of the appropriate life tables. The analysis of data from developed and developing countries suggests a short-term life expectancy of 82.5 years and a long-term life expectancy of 90 years for women; male life expectancy is 6.7 years lower. For short-term predictions, the rate of change in the preceding 5 years and the proportion of females enrolled in secondary school are most significant. In terms of infant mortality, the rate is expected to decline to 6/1000 in the short-term and 3/1000 in the long- term. A split life table approach is then used, in which the infant mortality rate determines the level to select for mortality at the younger ages and life expectancy is the basis for level selection at the older ages. Application of this projection approach to 8 countries-- Zaire, Bolivia, Ghana, Pakistan, Thailand, Poland, Costa Rica, and Norway--produced mortality estimates that were within 2 percentage points of existing estimates. Infant mortality projections show a greater deviation, with faster falls than suggested by current World Bank estimates. A rapid mortality decline assumption allows life expectancy to be up to 6% higher in 1985-2100, the crude death rate up to 30% lower, and the infant mortality rate up to 50% lower, resulting overall in a population 8% above that expected under conditions of a medium decline. A slow decline pattern allows life expectancy to be 10% lower, the crude death rate up to 50% higher, and the infant mortality rate up to 170% higher than under conditions of medium mortality declines and produces a 13% population decline.
In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England, George Allen and Unwin, 1986. 367-89.The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization, such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics, we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows, whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 85 p. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)Upon a recommendation of the Population Commission, at its 20th session in January 1979, the Secretary General of the United Nations convened an Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections from 16 to 19 November 1981 at the UN Headquarters to discuss the methodology used for demographic projections and to consider the relationship of demographic projections to development change and population policies. The expert Group was also requested to provide guidelines and make recommendations to the Secretary-General on how to incorporate demographic changes into the methodology to be used for the next round of world population projections to be prepared by the UN Population Division in collaboration with the regional commissions. The papers prepared by members of the Expert Group as well as those prepared by the Population Division are reproduced in this publication. The recommendations of the Expert Group and a summary of the papers and discussion are also included. The topics addressed in this publication are: 1) problems in making population projections; 2) integration of socioeconomic factors in population projections; 3) population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies; 4) current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections; 5) expectations and progressive analysis in fertility prediction; 6) use of the intermediate factors in fertility projections; 7) family planning and population projections; 8) progress of work on a fertility simulation model for population projections at the UN Secretariat; 9) mortality trends and prospects in developing countries: some "best data" indications; 10) the urban and city population projections of the UN: data, definitions and methods; 11) a critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to UN methods; and 12) projections in Europe: some problems.
In: United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]. Modelling economic and demographic development. New York, United Nations, 1983. 117-223. (Asian Population Studies Series No. 54)This study uses a longterm demographic-economic model to analyze the effects of the rapid aging of the Japanese population on various aspects of the economy and government programs. It is assumed that the quantitative analysis of the interrelationships between age-structural changes and the socioeconomic system provides a useful basis for Japanese government planners to formulate policy measures to cope with problems arising in connection with an aging population. The study draws on population, economic, and social security submodels in a series of simulation experiments. In the Standard Case, the total fertility rate falls due to economic progress and the rising age at 1st marriage, mortality improves as a result of increased per capita medical expenditures, and population grows at a diminishing rate after peaking at 131.3 million in 2007. The model further projects an increase in the percentage of the population age 65 years and over from 9.1% in 1980 to 23.9% in 2021 and a corresponding decrease in the population ages 15-64 years from 67.4% to 61.8%, Per capita real GNP is projected to continue to rise in the 1980-2025 period. However, the decreasing growth rate of the labor force, increasing financial resources for social security programs, and decline in the average hours worked by those in the labor force are expected to produce an economic slow-down, particularly in the early part of the 21st century. 5 policy measures are proposed to cope with this lowered rate of economic growth: 1) acceleration of the speed of technological progress to compensate for the shortage of young workers; 2) extension of retirement age to ease financial pressures on public pension schemes and retain the economic contributions of aged workers; 3) updating of the skills of aged workers through government vocational retraining programs; 4) the modification of public pension schemes to make benefit provision more selective, and adjustment of the amount of benefits paid out by extending the pensionable age for each scheme; and 5) review of the effectiveness and efficiency of various public medical plans, with attention to unnecessary use of medical services and improvement of preventive interventions.
New York, United Nations, 1982. 345 p. (Comparative Study on Migration, Urbanization and Development in the ESCAP Region. Survey Manuals)In the developing countries of the Asian and Pacific region, migration and urbanization are major policy issues. To assist countries in confronting these issues the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has undertaken the design of a model national migration survey that will generate the types of information deemed of most use to national policymakers. This volume's purpose is to outline some of the principal techniques and approaches that can be applied to the data collected through the model. The introductory chapter highlights the types of information that can be generated from the model to see how these relate to the major issues in migration research and to provide the background and summaries of the analytical chapters that follow. The 12 chapters of this volume deal with various aspects of the analysis of migration in relation to development. These include discussions on aspects of policy implementation, measurement of spatial flows, the interrelationship between census and survey data, the causes and impacts of migration, and projections of future flows. The chapter devoted to the ESCAP national migration surveys and the development of population redistribution policies provides an overview of how the various aspects of population mobility systems revealed by the migration surveys can prove useful for policy formulation and remedy current deficiencies in data necessary for planning. In a chapter on identification and measurement of spatial population movements an attempt is made to develop a typology of population mobility based on a space-time continuum framework, but the recorded statistics of population mobility are restricted to discrete spatial units and discrete time intervals. The chapter dealing with techniques for analysis of migration history data emphasizes the usefulness of the life history approach and how it can be used in the analysis of the most important topics in migration research such as changes in the pattern of movement over time and the determinants and consequences of migration. One chapter focuses on subjectively expressed motivations for moving, examining the strengths and weaknesses of self assessed motivations. Subsequent chapters show that the national migration survey model has the potential to provide data to evaluate the conditions that operate to produce migrant/nonmigrant fertility differentials, address some of the theoretical aspects of the decision of whether or not to intervene in population redistribution patterns, discuss possible dimensions of the study of migration impacts, and examine various conventional methods of subnational population projections and suggests an innovative technique that will increase understanding of the dynamic process of multiregional population growth and distribution.