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Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
Population and development. Background paper for the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September 1994.
Copenhagen, Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida, 1994. , 63 p.This report identifies and discusses the central issues, problems, and contradictions in the population debate in order to provide background information for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development and a basis for the development of Denmark's population policy. The introduction describes the 2 basic contradicting indicators of the unprecedented global annual growth rate of 93 million people and the equally unprecedented rapid decline in the total fertility rate in developing countries (from 6 in 1950 to 3.6 today). The next section deals with the links between population and development, including the risk of demographic traps and production and consumption traps. 6 major trends in population and sustainability are explored in terms of regional and national differences. Contradictions and myths in the population/development debate are then discussed. The third section of the report presents the demographic context including a short overview of population theories, the most recent global demographic projections, and the most important fertility determinants (infant and child mortality, the status of women, and the quality of services). Section 4 provides a discussion of the different approaches and rationales for the establishment of global and various national population policies and family planning (FP) programs. The final section is concerned with the transition from FP to sexual and reproductive health and rights. This discussion covers the role of vertical FP programs, integrated maternal-child health and FP services, and the transition to more comprehensive reproductive health services. Sexual and reproductive health is then considered within the gender framework and from a human rights perspective. Charts with data on population projections, the prevalence of contraceptive use in developing countries, and the total fertility rate since 1960 are appended.
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
New York, New York, United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA], 1991. , 48 p.Developing countries increased their commitment to implement population policies in the late 1980s and early 1990s with the support and guidance of UNFPA. These policies focused on improving, expanding, and integrating voluntary family planning services into social development. 1985-1990 data revealed that fertility began to fall in all major regions of the world. For example, fertility fell most in East Asia from 6.1-2.7 (1960-1965 to 1985-1990). This could not have occurred without strong, well managed family planning programs. Yet population continued to grow. This rapid growth hampered health and education, worsened environmental pollution and urban growth, and promoted political and economic instability. Therefore it is critical for developing countries to reduce fertility from 3.8-3.3 and increase in family planning use from 51-59% by 2000. These targets cannot be achieved, however, without government commitments to improving the status of women and maternal and child health and providing basic needs. They must also include promoting child survival and education. Further people must be able to make personal choices in their lives, especially in contraceptive use. Women are encouraged to participate in development and primary health care in Kerala State, India and Sri Lanka. The governments also provide effective family planning services. These approaches contributed significantly to improvements in fertility, literacy, and infant mortality. To achieve the targets, UNFPA estimated a doubling of funding to $9 billion/year by 2000. Lower costs can be achieved by involving the commercial sector and nongovernmental organizations, building in cost recovery in the distribution system of contraceptives, operating family planning services efficiently, and mixing contraceptive methods.
POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1987; (19-20):70-81.This is a survey of the U.N. Population Division's contributions to the study of urbanization and internal migration, related research, and publications. In order to review these contributions, the relevant U.N. publications are classified under five broad topics: "estimates and projections of urban, rural and city populations, including problems of data comparability and methods to measure internal migration; monitoring of trends in urbanization; estimates and analyses of migration as a component of urban and metropolitan growth; studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of urbanization, and studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of internal migration." (EXCERPT)
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
Population and Development Review. 1984 Mar; 10(1):103-26.This paper presents some of the results of projections prepared by the World Bank in 1983 for all the world's countries. The projections (presented against a background of recent demographic trends as estimated by the United Nations) trace the approach of each individual country to a stationary state. Implications of the underlying fertility and mortality assumptions are shown mainly in terms of time trends of total population to the year 2100, annual rates of growth, and absolute annual increments. These indices are shown for the largest individual countries, for world regions, and for country groupings according to economic criteria. The detailed predictive performance of such projections is likely to be poor but the projections indicate orders of magnitude characterizing certain aggregate demographic phenomena whose occurrence is highly probable and set clearly interpretable reference points useful in discussing contemporary issues of policy. (author's)
New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 85 p. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)Upon a recommendation of the Population Commission, at its 20th session in January 1979, the Secretary General of the United Nations convened an Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Demographic Projections from 16 to 19 November 1981 at the UN Headquarters to discuss the methodology used for demographic projections and to consider the relationship of demographic projections to development change and population policies. The expert Group was also requested to provide guidelines and make recommendations to the Secretary-General on how to incorporate demographic changes into the methodology to be used for the next round of world population projections to be prepared by the UN Population Division in collaboration with the regional commissions. The papers prepared by members of the Expert Group as well as those prepared by the Population Division are reproduced in this publication. The recommendations of the Expert Group and a summary of the papers and discussion are also included. The topics addressed in this publication are: 1) problems in making population projections; 2) integration of socioeconomic factors in population projections; 3) population projections as an aid to the formulation and implementation of population policies; 4) current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections; 5) expectations and progressive analysis in fertility prediction; 6) use of the intermediate factors in fertility projections; 7) family planning and population projections; 8) progress of work on a fertility simulation model for population projections at the UN Secretariat; 9) mortality trends and prospects in developing countries: some "best data" indications; 10) the urban and city population projections of the UN: data, definitions and methods; 11) a critical assessment of urban-rural projections with special reference to UN methods; and 12) projections in Europe: some problems.
Report to ECOSOC, statement made to the Economic and Social Council at its Second Regular Session of 1981, United Nations, Geneva, 2 July 1981.
New York, N.Y., UNFPA, . 7 p.This statement discusses the vital role population problems and issues play in global development. The developing countries will be faced with population growth rates in the 1980s of around 2%/year. According to United Nations projections, the share of the total world population living in the developing countries would rise from 74% at present to 80% by the year 2000. A striking feature of the prospective future population growth is that the largest increases in population will occur in the poorest countries and regions of the world which also experienced the largest increases in recent decades. The various forces generated by population growth, the imbalance of resources and the lack of gainful employment opportunities will undoubtedly affect economic and social stability. In many developing countries, population pressures have been particularly acute in the cities, where increasing migration from the rural areas has caused social problems to be more severe. Recent projections prepared by the UN indicate that it will be possible to stabilize the world population between the latter part of the 21st and the 1st half of the 22nd century but only if the current level of population activities in various parts of the world can be maintained. However, there exists today considerable disparity between resources and demand for population assistance. This tight resource situation has necessitated that the Fund devote its major attention to building self-reliance in developing countries. The Fund's goals and policies are briefly outlined.
New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities; London, England, Croom Helm, 1980. 215 p.The Arab population, consisting of 20 states and the people of Palestine, was almost 153 million in 1978 and is expected to reach 300 million by the year 2000. Most Arab countries have a high population growth rate of 3%, a young population structure with about 50% under age 15, a high rate of marriage, early age of marriage, large family size norm, and an agrarian rural community life, along with a high rate of urban expansion. Health patterns are also similar with epidemic diseases leading as causes of mortality and morbidity. But there is uneven distribution of wealth in the region with per capita annual income ranging from US$100 in Somalia to US$12,050 in Kuwait; health care is also more elaborate in the wealthier countries. Fertility rates are high in most countries, with crude birthrates about 45/1000 compared with 32/1000 in the world as a whole and 17/1000 in most developed countries. In many Arab countries up to 30-50% of total investment is involved in population-related activities compared to 15% in European countries. There is also increasing pressure in the educational and health systems with the same amount of professionals dealing with an increasing amount of people. Unplanned and excessive fertility also contributes to health problems for mothers and children with higher morbidity, mortality, and nutrition problems. Physical isolation of communities contributes to difficulties in spreading health care availability. Urban population is growing rapidly, 6%/year in most Arab cities, and at a rate of 10-15% in the cities of Kuwait and Qatar; this rate is not accompanied by sufficient urban planning policies or modernization. A unique population problem in this area is that of the over 2 million Palestinians living in and outside the Middle East who put demographic pressures on the Arab countries. 2 major constraints inhibit efforts to solve the Arab population problem: 1) the difficulty of actually reallocating the people to achieve more even distribution, and 2) cultural and political sensitivities. Since in the Arab countries fertility does not correlate well with social and economic indicators, it is possible that development alone will not reduce the fertility of the Arab countries unless rigorous and effective family planning policies are put into action.
Community Development Journal. 1983; 18(2):104-19.A review of demographic trends and health and social problems in the fast growing urban areas of the world indicates that, in the future, increasing numbers of people will be living in precarious socioeconomic conditions which impede the achievement of health. It is estimated that from 4.4 billion in 1980 the world's population will increase to 6.2 billion by the year 2000. The urban population will increase from 1.8 to 3.2 billion during the same period, over 2 billion of which will be in developing countries. The rapid and often uncontrollable demographic growth of cities, especially in the developing world, stimulates the demand for resources, intensifies their utilization and creates an intolerable pressure on the urban infrastructure and physical environment. A number of action oriented projects to combat disease and contamination have been successful. Projects in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Colombo, Sri Lanka, Hyderabad, India, Guayaquil, Ecuador, Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro have been implemented under a partnership among WHO, UNICEF, the Netherlands Aid Agency, the World Bank, and other international organizationals and governments. These projects all emphasize the fundamental role of community organizations, especially that of women; low-cost technology and the need to mobilize and efficiently use locally available resources; an ecological multisectoral concept of health whereby action concerning the environment, education, income generation and the availability of food, all with a powerful disease preventive potential, carry equal if not greater weight than the efforts to provide the population with health centers or implement curative practices. All these projects are focused on marginal groups; many were initiated by imaginative individuals or groups with a considerable amount of social orientation and motivation, and often, at least in the beginning, without the support of governments, nongovernmental or international organizations. It is important to study these projects in their accomplishments and failures; to help describe them and disseminate related information when appropriate; and to promote political and technical support for those which are successful so that they can rapidly come out of the experimental/demonstration phase and be expanded to become part of routine programs.