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New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. ix, 858 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/144)The population projections included in this UN volume were based on the 1994 revisions. Projections and estimates were given for national populations and regions. Sex and age distributions were provided for the period 1950-90 and projected figures were provided for 1995-2050. The projections included high, medium, and low fertility variants. Countries were included if their population exceeded 150,000. Smaller countries were included in regional totals only. A full description of methodology and projection assumptions was given in a prior publication, "World Population Prospects: The 1994 Revision." Estimates were derived from available national data and adjusted for deficiencies and inconsistencies. The sex and age structure was set for the base year of 1990 and data was consistent with previous censuses and surveys and past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION JOURNAL. 1992 Dec; 7(4):61-80.The State Statistical Office with the support of UNDESD and UNFPA prepared 3 projections. A standard cohort component method was used to project populations by sex and 5-year age groups for each quinquennium between 1989 and 2019. 3 hypotheses were proposed. In Hypothesis 1, fertility was assumed to stabilize at a level of a TFR of 3.5 children per woman. In Hypothesis 3, fertility was assumed to decline up to the period 1990-2004 and up to the replacement level (2.23 children per woman during that period). Hypothesis 2 represents an intermediate situation between Hypothesis 1 and 3 which was considered as the most plausible future trend of fertility. According to Projection 2 the population of Mongolia will be almost 3.8 million in the year 2019. Projections 1 and 3 give total populations of 4.2 and 3.5 million, respectively. The difference between a TFR of 2.2 and 3.5 for the last quinquennium of the projection period resulted in a difference of around 700,000 people. The difference between Projections 1 and 2 is about 400,000 people. Considering the fertility assumptions adopted for these projections, it is not very likely that the size of the population at the turn of the century will be much smaller than 2.6 million or larger than 3 million. What is more uncertain is the scenario for the 2nd decade of next century. During the next 2 decades, the growth will become gradually more moderate. The main changes will be an increase in the proportion of the population between 15 and 64 years of age, a decline in the proportion of the young population of the young population resulting in a substantial decrease of the dependency ratio and an increase in the median age of the population. According to the 3 hypotheses, the young population will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. There will be a decline in the proportion of young to old people and an increase in the proportion of the population in the working age groups. Yet, all age groups will continue to increase in absolute terms. International migration may produce some deviations in this expected profile.
Baltimore, Maryland, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990. lxxiii, 421 p.The World Bank's Population and Human Resources Department regularly publishes a set of world population projections based on its data files. This 1989-90 report has projections for the world and for regions, income groups of countries, and 187 countries. World Bank staff made projections to the point where populations reach stability. In almost all cases, they made only 1 projection. Projection tables for 1985-2030 exist for each country's population. Each country also has tables on birth rate, death rate, net migration, natural increase, population growth, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, and dependency ratio. The report shows that from 1985-90 population growth was 1.74%, and projected 1990 world population size was 5.3 billion. By 2025, 84.1% of the world's population will be living in developing countries. 58% of the population now lives in Asia. The population of Africa is growing faster than that of Asia, however, (3 vs. 1.9%). By 2000, the population of Africa will be second only to that of Asia, yet in 1989-1990, it is behind that of Asia, Europe and the USSR, and the Americas. The current dependency ratio (67) is expected to decline to 53 by 2025. The highest current dependency ratio belongs to Kenya (120). In developed countries with aging populations, the dependency ratio will rise from 50-58. China will most likely to continue to be the most populous country for about 200 years. India will continue to contribute more to population growth than any other country in the world. Yet the Federal Republic of Germany loses 100,000 people yearly. Total fertility rates are the greatest in Rwanda, the Yemen Arab Republic, Kenya, Malawi, and the Ivory Coast (all >7.2). Afghanistan and 3 western African countries have the shortest life expectancies (about 40 years). These trends illustrate the need to alter population growth.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1992. vii, 46 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/127)Methods pertaining to the preparation of migration data for subnational population projections as of 1992 are explained. A brief review of sources of data for migration projections (censuses, surveys, and registration data) reveals that the requirements are base period estimates of the level or rate of migration between regions, estimates of the age and sex distribution of migrants, and any indicators that show likely future trends. In a discussion of the measurement of the volume of migration from census date, data on residence at a fixed prior time, estimates based on previous place of residence and duration of residence, and estimates of net migration of census survival/ratio methods are relevant. Estimates of the distribution of migrants by age and sex are explained based on different age and sex data: on place of residence at a fixed prior date, on place of previous residence and duration of residence, on age distributions from surveys, and from registers. Also explained is the use of model migration schedules when there is little or no information about age. Baseline migration projections for future estimates which are reasonable and account for variable rates of migration by region are discussed. The objectives desired are sometimes contradictory in that using a long time frame in order to average out random or abnormal fluctuations conflicts with continuing recent nonrandom or unusual changes so that emergent trends will be projected; objectives are also to use the most recent data available which account for shifts in migration patterns and to ensure convergence of migration rates toward equilibrium at some future point. Alternative strategies are provided as well as adjustments to provide consistent results. Adjustments involve the projection of numbers of migrants rather than rates, the use of out-migrant data on destination to adjust in-migration, and the scaling of in-migration to equal out-migration. Recommendations for data collection are presented. Internal migration data are best served by census data which asks the question about place of residence at a fixed prior time preceding the census and with a time interval designation that is of interest for projections. Single year of age and prior year questions and 5 years before are desired due to the need for short-range projections and planning. The 5-year prior place of residence question must be available by current region of residence and age and sex. Specific examples of multiregional projections are included.
The sex and age distributions of population. The 1990 revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1991. viii, 391 p. (Population Studies No. 122; ST/ESA/SER.A/122)This statistical report includes the estimated and projected age distribution of the population based on high, medium, and low variants for 152 countries with populations greater than 300,000 between 1950 and 2025 in 5-year intervals. A world total as well as by continents and subregions are available along with the spatial groups; least developed countries, less developed regions (excluding China), the Economic Commission for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia, and the Pacific, Western Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Grouped data reflect countries with populations both greater than and less than 300,000. This revision was begun in 1988 and completed in 1990 by the UN Population Division of the International Economic and Social Affairs Department in conjunction with other UN regional commissions and the Statistical Office. A discussion of methods and data used for these estimates, a summary of findings, and selected demographic indicators will be available in World Population Prospects, 1990, and in summary form in the UN World Population Chart, 1990. A magnetic tape and diskettes of these data are available on request for purchase.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. ix, 385 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/70.)The report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high, and low variants for population growth for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1980. The data for smaller countries or areas are included in the regional population totals and are not given separately. This report supplements the report on the WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS AS ASSESSED IN 1984, which presents methods, data, assumptions, and a summary of major findings of the estimates and projections, as well as selected demographic indicators for every country or area of the world. The sex and age distributions of population in this report are based on the 10th round of the global demographic assessments undertaken by the UN Secretariat. They are derived from data that were available to the UN generally by the beginning of 1985; therefore, the figures presented supercede those that were previously published by the UN.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.
[Washington, D.C., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development], 1981 Jul. 375 p.Population projections -- 1980-2000 and long-term (stationary population) are presented in tables for Africa, the United States and Canada, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. The base year for the projection of base total population and age/sex composition is 1980. The total population in 1980 was taken from a variety of sources, but the principal source was the United Nations Population Division -- "World Population Trends and Prospects by Country, 1950-2025: Summary Report of the 1980 Assessment, 1980", a computer printout. The base year mortality levels used in the projection of mortality level and trend are in general the same as those used in the recent United Nations projections. The principal source of the base fertility rates was also the revised United Nations population projections. Throughout the projections it was assumed that international migration would have no appreciable impact. Population projection was prepared separately for every country in the world. Since many countries reached stability only after 175 years of projection, the results of the projection are presented at 5-year intervals for the 1980-2000 period and at 25 year intervals thereafter. For each of the 165 separate units, the following information is presented in the accompanying tables: population by sex and 5-year age groups; birth rate, death rate, and rate of natural increase; gross reproduction rate, total fertility rate; expectation of life at birth and infant mortality rates for males and females separately; and net reproduction rates. According to this projection the total world population would increase from 4.416 billion in 1980 to 6.114 billion in the year 2000. The average growth rate during 1980-2000 would be about 1.63% per year decreasing from 1.71% in 1980 to 1.42% in the year 2000. The birth rate would decline by 5 points and the death rate by 2 points. The share of the population in less developed regions would be 1.94% per year compared to 0.59% per year for more developed regions. The estimated hypothetical stationary population of the world according to the present projection is 10.1 billion.
Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 1982; (14):17-30.UN medium range projections prepared in the 1980 assessment projected the population of individual countries up to the year 2025. The long range projections discussed here were prepared by projecting the population of 8 major world regions from 2025-2100. The purpose of the projection was to observe the implications of the changes from the 1978 assessment made in the 1980 medium range projections on the long range projections of the world's populations. As in previous projections, high, medium, and low variants were prepared in which fertility is assumed to be constant at the replacement level but at different times in the future. In addition, these projections contain 2 variants not previously prepared--namely, the growth and decline variants, in which the ultimate net reproduction rate is 1.05 and 0.95, respectively. In all the variants, expectation of life at birth is assumed to reach 75 years for males and 80 for females. According to the current medium variant projection, the earth's population will become stationary after 2095 at 10.2 billion persons, compared with a total of 10.5 billion projected in the 1978 assessment. The lower projection is largely attributable to a recent decline in the growth rate of several countries in South Asia which was greater than previously assumed. When the world population becomes stationary, both crude birth and death rates would be about 13/1000. In the decline variant, total population would peak at 7.7 billion in 2055, then decline gradually to 7.2 billion in 2100. The total population as projected by the growth variant would equal 14.9 billion in 2100 and would still be growing slowly. Between 1980 and 2050, 95% of the world's growth will occur in the currently less developed regions. Their share of total population will increase from 75-85% during that period. The age structure in all regions is expected to converge to 1 in which the median age is 39 years, the proportion both below age 15 and above age 64 is about 19% each, and the dependency ratio is about 60. A precise degree of accuracy cannot be specified, but the argument is made that the actual future population of the world is very likely to fall within the range of the projection variants and probably not far from the medium variant. (author's)