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    079154

    Educational development: world and regional statistical trends and projections to 1985.

    UNESCO

    In: The population debate: dimensions and perspectives. Papers of the World Population Conference, Bucharest, 1974. Volume I. New York, New York, United Nations, 1975. 313-46. (Population Studies, No. 57; ST/ESA/SER.A/57)

    The school enrollment ratio is determined by dividing student enrollment at given educational levels by the student population size in appropriate age ranges which should be enrolled according to national regulations. Calculation and review of this ratio offers a quick view of the extent of educational participation in given countries or regions. Without allowing for future plans, intentions, or policy changes, this paper projects enrollment trends of youth aged 6-29 to 1985 based upon data reported for the period 1960-1970. Data were limited for many of the 24 United Nation regions considered, but severe lack of information precluded the incorporation of East Asia in the analysis. East Asia incorporates China, Hong Kong, Mongolia, and Macau. Ages were broken into 3 ranges of 6-11, 12-17, and 18-29 years. Marked differences exist between the more and less developed regions in the trend of enrollment in the youngest age grouping. Specifically, enrollment follows population growth in developed regions, while enrollment growth in developing countries is unrelated to population growth. Enrollments in the remaining 2 age groupings were indirectly projected by estimating the percentage of enrollment in a given grouping in a given year remaining in school 6 years later. These percentages were then extended linearly into the future. In general, rapid population growth in developing countries greatly strains educational systems at all levels. Disparities between developed and developing countries are likely to continue for quite some time. While developed countries will achieve almost universal enrollment for those aged 6-17 by 1975, developing countries would have to treble average annual enrollment increases realized in the 1960s to simply achieve universal enrollment for those aged 6-11 by 1985. Those aged 6-17 not enrolled in developing countries will decline from 58% in 1965 to 50% in 1985, but the absolute number of out-of-schoolers will increase by 53%. Finally, by 1985, developing countries will have 32% of those aged 6-29 enrolled compared to 59% of those in more developed regions. Lacking resources, most developing countries can hope to simply tread water with school enrollment in the face of rapidly expanding populations.
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