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  1. 1
    024920

    Recommendations.

    United Nations. Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
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  2. 2
    045229

    The 5 billion baby.

    PEOPLE. 1987; 14(2):25.

    At some time during 1987 the 5 billionth person will be born according to the UN Population Division. If the UN media variant projections are accurate, the world will pass the 5 billion mark between April and July 1987. The world's population is expected to total 6 billion in 1999, 7 billion in 2010, and 8 billion in 2022. At the time the population reaches 5 billion, the annual global rate of population growth is estimated to be 1.63%. According to the medium-variant projections, the growth rate will drop to about 1.4% by 2000 and to less than 1% by 2025. Despite the relatively recent decline in the growth rate of the world, the annual increment to the total population continues to increase. Half of the world's 5 billion people in 1987 will be under age 24 and close to 1/3 will be children under age 15. 1 billion persons will be in the 15-24 age group; about 1 of 10 will be age 60 or older. 1 of 25 persons will be 70 years or older. By the middle of 1987, 42% of the world's population, or 2.1 billion people, will reside in urban areas, and it is anticipated that more than half of the world's 7 million people will live in towns and cities by 2010.
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  3. 3
    048415

    Forty years of United Nations: a tribute to the saga.

    El-Badry MA

    In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1985. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1986. 3-7. (Cairo Demographic Centre Research Monograph Series No. 15.)

    On the 40th anniversary of the UN, demographers should pay special tribute to the UN's main demographic arm, the UN Population Division. There is no research worker in the field who has not learned from the Division's consecutive studies in mortality, fertility, migration, labor force, interrelationships with development factors, or the methodology of analysis from model life tables to stable population techniques or methods of assessment of the demographic impact of family planning. The author singles out the study entitled "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends," which provides a digest of the findings of scientific studies concerning the relationships between population variables and economic and social development factors. The expertise of the Population Division has been behind most of the international gatherings in the field, collaborating and contributing to their organization and conduct, starting with the Rome conference of 1954 to that of Belgrade in 1965 to the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974 and finally to the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. The Division's involvement in population and development and in population policies dates back to the early 1960s when the UN decided to pay due attention to the implications of population trends for development. A principal source of information in the policy area was, and still is, inquiry among governments concerning population and development and including population policies, conducted periodically by the Division as recommended by the World Population Plan of Action. The development of the UN population projections led to the important by-products of the manuals on demographic estimation and the development of computer programs for projections. Thus the stage was set for further development of work in this field from the 1970s until now: further methodological refinements, more information and substance to utilize in preparing the assumptions, more details, and more indicators.
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  4. 4
    040810

    Global estimates and projections of population by sex and age: the 1984 assessment.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. ix, 385 p. (ST/ESA/SER.R/70.)

    The report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high, and low variants for population growth for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1980. The data for smaller countries or areas are included in the regional population totals and are not given separately. This report supplements the report on the WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS: ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS AS ASSESSED IN 1984, which presents methods, data, assumptions, and a summary of major findings of the estimates and projections, as well as selected demographic indicators for every country or area of the world. The sex and age distributions of population in this report are based on the 10th round of the global demographic assessments undertaken by the UN Secretariat. They are derived from data that were available to the UN generally by the beginning of 1985; therefore, the figures presented supercede those that were previously published by the UN.
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  5. 5
    042470

    Demographic estimates and projections.

    El-Badry MA; Kono S

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):35-43.

    The periodic assessment of global population growth from the past to the future has been one of the UN's most important contributions to member states and many other users. Available data and applicable analysis and projection methods were very limited in 1947, when the 1st global population estimates and projections were attempted. The 1st contributions of the Commission were manuals for these functions. Throughout the 1950s, 4 regional reports on Central and South America; Southeast Asia; and Asia and the far East were published. UN studies during this period tended to group regions by their position on a continuum of the demographic transition. Rough but alarming projections of population growth appeared. Projection technics were refined and standardized in the 1960s, and the demand grew for more specialized technics, e.g. dealing with urban/rural populations; the labor force; and other elements. The availability of computer technology at the end of the decade multiplied the projection capabilities, and the total population projections for the future were larger than ever. The 1970s projections, based on the more accurate and widely covered baseline data which had become available in developing countries, were also aided by more powerful and innovative indirect estimation technics; better software, and computers with larger capacities. By 1982, only a few countries were left with a total lack of data. A revision of estimates and projections is now undertaken biennially, incorporating the latest available data, utilizing advanced analytical methods and computer technology. Methodological manuals have been produced as the by-product of the revisions. UN demographic estimates and projections could be further improved by injection of a probabilistic element and the inclusion of economic factors. Roles for the future include maintenance of regional and interregional comparability of assumptions.
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  6. 6
    042473

    Urbanization and internal migration.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1987; (19-20):70-81.

    This is a survey of the U.N. Population Division's contributions to the study of urbanization and internal migration, related research, and publications. In order to review these contributions, the relevant U.N. publications are classified under five broad topics: "estimates and projections of urban, rural and city populations, including problems of data comparability and methods to measure internal migration; monitoring of trends in urbanization; estimates and analyses of migration as a component of urban and metropolitan growth; studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of urbanization, and studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of internal migration." (EXCERPT)
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  7. 7
    032293

    Future prospects of the number and structure of the households in developing countries.

    Kono S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
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  8. 8
    032290

    Prospects of mortality in developing countries.

    Ueda K

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 39-57, 326-7. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    A comparative study on mortality trends of developing countries was conducted by making use of UN projections of mortality measures. These mortality measures projected by the UN were used to observe future prospects of general mortality trends in selected countries. Under several research projects of the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), some attempts were made to analyze recent trends of cause-specific mortality covering several selected countries. Estimates of future changes in cause-specific mortality may be considered useful to supply basic information needed for social and economic development planning of a country. Trends of mortality changes in the 1950s and 1960s were characterized in many countries by a rapid decline. Such a declining trend of mortality was brought about initially by a successful control of infectious and parasitic diseases accompanied by improvements in living conditions of the people in general. Thus the mortality of less developed countries that had been affected to a greater extent directly by infectious and parasitic diseases could be improved more drastically at such a stage. After the 1970s the pace of decline in mortality slowed down gradually to a considerable extent all over the world but was more prominent among more developed countries. In most countries mentioned in this discussion, regardless of whether they are more or less developed, the crude death rate is expected to reach the lowest level within a few decades. In many instances of developing countries, the crude death rate is assumed to reach such a minimum level in and around 2000. After reaching the lowest level, the crude death rate will turn to increase in varying degrees. Such a rise in crude death rate does not imply deterioration of mortality conditions. The crude death rate is often affected by the sex-age composition of the population. In contrast to the crude death rate, in most countries selected here, the expectation of life at birth is expected to expand steadily towards the future during the whole duration of this projection. An analytical observation was made on the cause-specific mortality for 10 selected countries covering the period from 1970 to the latest year for which basic data were available on the 8th (1965) revision of International Statistical Classification. Future prospects of cause structure of deaths will be very much influenced by proccesses effected by policy making and planning, and projections of cause-specific mortality should be made with an aim toward providing useful information for policy making and planning for national development.
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  9. 9
    032288

    Prospects of population growth and changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries.

    Otomo A; Obayashi S

    In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)

    This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.
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  10. 10
    030872

    [Reconciling censal and inter-censal data and determination of the population base] Conciliacion censal y determinacion de la poblacion base.

    Rincon MJ

    In: Metodos para proyecciones demograficas [compiled by] United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]. San Jose, Costa Rica, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, 1984 Nov. 13-42. (Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] Series E, No. 1003)

    This work describes procedures used by the Latin American Demographic Center (CELADE) for establishing a base population for projection in quinquennial age groups by means of evaluation of population censuses and reconciliation of demographic data for 2 or more intercensal periods. Demographic reconciliation refers to the array of procedures through which the degree of coverage of successive censuses is evaluated; age and sex distributions resulting from incomplete coverage, differential omission, and poor age reporting are corrected; the demographic dynamics of intercensal periods are made coherent with estimates of mortality, fertility, and migration from all available sources; and a base population for population projection is established. There are no fixed rules for evaluation and reconciliation of census data, because the history and quality of data collection in each country are unique. The compensatory equation, in which 2 or more population censuses are reconciled in regard to fertility, mortality, and international migration in intermediate years usually in terms of age cohorts, is an indispensable tool for demographers in developing countries. The need to add children born in the years between censuses and the different types of errors typifying different age groups means that the process of census reconciliation should be carried out separately for at least 3 age groups: children under 5, the 5-9 year cohort, and those over 10 years of age. The age group 0-4 is often the most seriously underestimated. Because the age group 5-9 years is often the best enumerated in Latin American population censuses, it can serve as the basis for correction of the population aged 0-4. The data required include the population aged 5-9 in single years in the last census, the deaths in children under 10 by year of birth and age at death in single years, and the annual number of births in the 10 years preceding the last census. Data from Panama illustrate that the results of this technique are not always acceptable, in which case correction of the 0-4 cohort may be accomplished by means of correction of births and deaths using indirect methods. Corrections for the 5-9 cohort, if required, can be made in a similar manner to that for the youngest group. Evaluation and correction of errors of omission and misreporting of age of the population over 10 is the most difficult because data sources are most often inadequate, these age groups have the greatest age and sex differentials and poorest age reporting, and are most likely to be effected by emigration. All available data should be utilized to produce a group of alternative estimates for each cohort based on diverse basic data and assumptions about such variables as the sex ratios for age agroups. The most likely values must then be selected or calculated. The process by which census results from 1950-80 were used to estimate the base population for a projection by components in Panama illustrates the procedure used by CELADE.
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  11. 11
    030330

    Stopping population growth.

    Brown LR

    In: State of the world 1985. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society [by] Lester R. Brown, Edward C. Wolf, Linda Starke, William U. Chandler, Christopher Flavin, Sandra Postel, Cynthia Pollack. New York, New York, W.W. Norton, 1985. 200-21.

    The demographic contrasts of the 1980s are placing considerable stress on the international economic system and on national political structures. Runaway population growth is indirectly fueling the debt crisis by increasing the need for imported food and other basic commodities. Low fertility countries are food aid donors, and the higher fertility countries are the recipients. In most countries with high fertility, food production per person is either stagnant or declining. Population policy is becoming a priority of national governments and international development agencies. This discussion reviews what has happened since the UN's first World Population Conference in 1974 in Bucharest, fertility trends and projections, social influences on fertility, advances in contraceptive technology, and 2 major family planning gaps -- the gap between the demand for family planning services and their availability and the gap between the societal need to slow population growth quickly and the private interests of couples in doing so. The official purpose of the 1984 UN International Conference on Population convened in Mexico City, in which 149 countries participated, was to review the world population plan of action adopted at Bucharest. In Bucharest there had been a wide political schism between the representatives of industrial countries, who pushed for an increase in 3rd world family planning efforts, and those from developing countries, whose leaders argued that social and economic progress was the key to slowing population growth. In Mexico City this division had virtually disappeared. Many things had happened since Bucharest to foster the attitude change. The costly consequences of continuing rapid population growth that had seemed so theoretical in the 1974 debate were becoming increasingly real for many. World population in 1984 totaled 4.76 billion, an increase of some 81 million in 1 year. The population projections for the industrial countries and East Asia seem reasonable enough in terms of what local resource and life support systems can sustain, but those for much of the rest of the world do not. Most demographers are still projecting that world population will continue growing until it reaches some 10 billion, but that most of the 5.3 billion additional people will be concentrated in a few regions, principally the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. What demographers are projecting does not mesh with what ecologists or agronomists are reporting. In too many countries ecological deterioration is translating into economic decline which in turn leads to social disintegration. The social indicator that correlates most closely with declining fertility across the whole range of development is the education of women. Worldwide, sterilization protects more couples from unwanted pregnancy than any other practice. Oral contraceptives rank second. The rapid growth now confronting the world community argues for effective family planning programs.
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  12. 12
    024921

    Some problems in the making of population projections.

    Tabah L

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 15-6. (Population Studies No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    As the UN demographic estimates and projections cover all the developed and developing countries, special problems are encountered in data collection and evaluations. The responsibility for the UN projections rests primarily with the Population Division, but the results are the product of collaboration by all responsible offices within the UN system. This is 1 of the strengths of the UN population projections, yet there are numerous problems concerning those projections. Aside from the perpetual difficulties with collection and estimation of basic demographic indicators from incomplete data, all of which must be continuously undertaken, there are 8 major problems which have become more important in recent years and concern the current UN demographic projections. The 1st problem is the question of meeting the needs of the users who are the researchers, the planners, and the policymakers. The 2nd problem is that significant improvement can be made in the methodologies with, on the 1 hand, the prodigious advances in calculation devices and research techniques and on the other, a better knowledge of the economic and social context of demographic variables. The 3rd major problem in the component method of projections of fertility, which continues to be the most influential component to the future population of most nations. Another component of projection, mortality, has become a pressing issue in the field of projection as well. Knowledge of mortality in the third world is highly fragmentary. The 5th problematic issue is urbanization and city growth. There are severe problems with data comparability and projection methods. Sixth, for several developing and developed countries international migration plays a significant role in their population growth. More problematic than estimating the current net numbers of migrants is formulating assumptions about future patterns of international migration. Seventh, thus far demographic projections have largely been based on the demographic theory of transition, which appears to continue to be useful for developing countries. Yet, the demographic transition models are affected by a wider variety of trajectories than anticipated. Finally, no one has been able to explain clearly the major simultaneous movements of fertility of the developed countries. The question of obvious policy significance is what will happen in the future.
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  13. 13
    016084

    Evaluation report of the World Fertility Survey.

    Smith TE; Berquo E; Fisek NH; Knodel J; Ordonez-Plaja A; Presser HB

    [Unpublished] 1980 Dec. 183 p. (ADSS AID/DSPE-C-0053)

    A general report follows the "Executive Summary" of this evaluation of the World Fertility Survey (WFS). The general report covers the following: previous evaluations, terms of references, and composition and itinerary for the Evaluation Mission; background and objectives of WFS (origin of the program; objectives, priorities, and strategies); organization aspects of the WFS program (headquarters, country participation, operating procedures, survey organization, and coordination); inputs (scope of support to the program, procedures for provision of funds, headquarters costs, costs of country surveys, and complementary support to the program); methodological aspects of the program (sampling procedures; questionnaires, survey procedures, and basic documentation; data processing and archives; and production of the 1st country report); execution of national surveys (nature, character, and significance of WFS assistance; implementation of survey procedures); analysis (evaluative, illustrative, 2nd stage, and comparative analyses); building the national capability (contribution to survey taking capability, contribution to data processing capability, and contribution to analatical capability); dissemination of survey results (national meetings, limits of WFS participation in national dissemination activities, actual and potential audience for WFS survey results, and libraries in the WFS despository system); and use of WFS survey results. Conclusions are reported, recommendations are made, and country reports are included for the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, and the Philippines. The 1st objective of the WFS is to help countries acquire scientific information that will allow them to describe and interpret their populations' fertility, to identify meaningful differentials in patterns of fertility and fertility regulation, and to provide improved data in order to facilitate efforts in economic, social, and health planning. As of July 1980, a total of 36 less developed countries had completed fertility survey fieldwork, and of these 21 had published their First Country Report. The following were among the conclusions reached concerning this 1st objective: the sampling, training, field supervision, editing, and data processing standards set by the WFS for the national executing agencies were higher than those which characterized previous surveys; data processing was the major bottleneck in the participating countries during the surveys; and at all stages of the survey there was a conflict between the time constraints on completing the survey and getting the report out and the desire to rely as much as possible on local personnel. As far as utilization of WFS data, at this stage the Mission was able to evaluate only the short range use of the results.
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  14. 14
    022863

    National migration surveys. X. Guidelines for analyses.

    United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]

    New York, United Nations, 1982. 345 p. (Comparative Study on Migration, Urbanization and Development in the ESCAP Region. Survey Manuals)

    In the developing countries of the Asian and Pacific region, migration and urbanization are major policy issues. To assist countries in confronting these issues the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) has undertaken the design of a model national migration survey that will generate the types of information deemed of most use to national policymakers. This volume's purpose is to outline some of the principal techniques and approaches that can be applied to the data collected through the model. The introductory chapter highlights the types of information that can be generated from the model to see how these relate to the major issues in migration research and to provide the background and summaries of the analytical chapters that follow. The 12 chapters of this volume deal with various aspects of the analysis of migration in relation to development. These include discussions on aspects of policy implementation, measurement of spatial flows, the interrelationship between census and survey data, the causes and impacts of migration, and projections of future flows. The chapter devoted to the ESCAP national migration surveys and the development of population redistribution policies provides an overview of how the various aspects of population mobility systems revealed by the migration surveys can prove useful for policy formulation and remedy current deficiencies in data necessary for planning. In a chapter on identification and measurement of spatial population movements an attempt is made to develop a typology of population mobility based on a space-time continuum framework, but the recorded statistics of population mobility are restricted to discrete spatial units and discrete time intervals. The chapter dealing with techniques for analysis of migration history data emphasizes the usefulness of the life history approach and how it can be used in the analysis of the most important topics in migration research such as changes in the pattern of movement over time and the determinants and consequences of migration. One chapter focuses on subjectively expressed motivations for moving, examining the strengths and weaknesses of self assessed motivations. Subsequent chapters show that the national migration survey model has the potential to provide data to evaluate the conditions that operate to produce migrant/nonmigrant fertility differentials, address some of the theoretical aspects of the decision of whether or not to intervene in population redistribution patterns, discuss possible dimensions of the study of migration impacts, and examine various conventional methods of subnational population projections and suggests an innovative technique that will increase understanding of the dynamic process of multiregional population growth and distribution.
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  15. 15
    205092

    Computer software programs for demographic analysis: aspects of technical co-operation.

    United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1983. iv, 29 p. (ST/ESA/SER.E/32.)

    As part of its technical co-operation in the analysis of population and related demographic data, the UN Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) explores innovative methods for increasing the capacity of developing countries to analyze demographic data and prepare population projections speedily and accurately, to meet urgent development needs. The development and increasing availability of computer software programs for demographic analysis will greatly facilitate detailed analysis of demographic and socioeconomic data derived from censuses, surveys, and vital statistics, and aid in the preparation of population projections. DTCD conducted a study of available aoftware packages for demographic analysis and their capabilities and limitations in adapting them to specific minicomputers or microcomputers. The present paper examines 3 major software packages covering the widest range of technics for demographic analysis and population projections. These include "Computer programs for demographic analysis", developed by the US Bureau of the Census: "Computer programs for demographic estimation", developed at the US National Academy of Sciences, and the "Population projection computer program", developed by the UN Population Division. The software packages are evaluated in respect of their function, required computing configuration, transportability, and readability of source code to assist users in determining the adaptability of the programs to their computer configurations. To enhance these programs' utility, DTCD is planning to test, edit, and adapt them to suit specific computer configurations in developing countries. (author's modified)
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