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New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division, 2012. 118 p. (Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.228)The 2012 Revision is the twenty-third round of official United Nations population estimates and projections, prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. The 2012 Revision builds on the previous revision by incorporating the results of the 2010 round of national population censuses as well as findings from recent specialized demographic surveys that have been carried out around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2012 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. The results of the 2012 Revision incorporate the findings of the most recent national population censuses, including from the 2010 round of censuses, and of numerous specialized population surveys carried out around the world. The 2012 Revision provides the demographic data and indicators to assess trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system.
Commission gives high priority to monitoring global trends - UN Population Commission meeting, Mar 28-31, 1994 - includes information on preparation of action program to be recommended at the Sep 5-13, 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, Egypt.
UN Chronicle. 1994 Jun; 31(2): p..The effect of population growth on the environment, the role and status of women, and the demographic implications of development Policies were among major topics discussed by the Population Commission at its twenty-seventh session (28-31 March, New York). "The most important lesson we have learned is that population growth and other demographic trends can only be affected by investing in people and by promoting equality between women and men", Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Secretary-General of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, told the 26-member body. In the single text approved during the session, for adoption by the Economic and Social Council, the Commission asked that high priority be given to monitoring world population trends and policies, and to strengthening multilateral technical cooperation to address population concerns. (excerpt)
New York, New York, United Nations, 2001.  p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/207)The Population Division of the United Nations has a long tradition of studying population ageing, including estimating and projecting older populations, and examining the determinants and consequences of population ageing. From the groundbreaking report on population ageing in 1956, which focused mainly on population ageing in the more developed countries, to the first United Nations wallchart on population ageing issues published in 1999, the Population Division has consistently sought to bring population ageing to the attention of the international community. The present report is intended to provide a solid demographic foundation for the debates and follow-up activities of the Second World Assembly on Ageing. The report considers the process of population ageing for the world as a whole, for more and less developed regions, major areas and regions, and individual countries. Demographic profiles covering the period 1950 to 2050 are provided for each country, highlighting the relevant indicators of population ageing. (excerpt)
World population in 2300. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, United Nations Headquarters, New York.
New York, New York, United Nations, 2004 Mar 24 x, 36 p. (ESA/P/WP.187/Rev.1)In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of experts. The first meeting, the Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections, was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York on 30 June 2003 and provided consultation on the proposed assumptions and methodology for the projection exercise. The second meeting, the Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300, was held at United Nations Headquarters on 9 December 2003. Its purpose was to examine the results of the long-range projections and to discuss lessons learned and policy implications. The Expert Group consisted of 30 invited experts participating in their personal capacity. Also attending were staff members of the Population Division and the Statistics Division, both part of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. This document presents the report of the meeting of the Expert Group on World Population in 2300, along with the background paper prepared by the Population Division and the questions addressed by the meeting. The Population Division drew valuable guidance from the deliberations at the meeting as well as from comments submitted in writing by the experts. All of these inputs will be taken into consideration in preparing the final report on the long-range projections, as well as in future projection exercises. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the preparation of the long-range projections. (excerpt)
Tokyo, Japan, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1991 Feb 22. , 143 p. (Research Series No. 267)According to the UN Population Projections of 1990, the world population of 5 billion, 292 million, 200 thousand in 1990 will reach 6 billion, 260 million, 800 thousand in the year 2000 with an annual increase rate of about 100 million. 94% of the increase will be in developing countries. In the year, 2025, the world population will be 8 billion, 54 million. 96% of the increase between 2000 and 2025 will also be in developing countries. The ratio of the population of developing countries to the world population was 77% in 1990 and will be 80% and 84% in 2000 and 2025 respectively. The new UN projections added about 10 million to the previous figure projected for 2000 and 38 million to the same for 2025. The World Bank's Projections are 6 billion 204 for the year 2000 and 8 billion 15 million for 2025. Their figures are slightly smaller than UN figures. Their data also include Taiwan and socio-economic group specific population, both of which are not found in UN data. In 2150, the world population is projected to be 11 billion 499 million with all of the increase from 2050 to 150 taking place in the developing region. According to high medium, and low variants in the UN projections, world population in 2020 will be 9 billion 400 million, 8 billion 500 million, and 7 billion 600 million respectively. Asian population, which constituted 55% of the world population in 1950, will be 59% in 1990. Since 1980, Southern Asia and Africa have seen the highest increase rates. African population, which was 9% in 1950 and 12% in 1990, will increase to 19% in 2025. After 2000, population in some regions of Europe will decrease as it will in Japan after 2010. The world population as a whole changed from high fertility and high mortality to high fertility and low mortality and then to low fertility and low mortality. In 1990, the population pyramid of developing nations was expansive triangular, while that of highly industrialized nations was constructive high rise or near stationary. The age specific ratio in industrialized regions will be 13% in 2000 and 18-19% in 2025.
In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. Papers of the United Nations Ad Hoc Expert Group on Demographic Projections, United Nations Headquarters, 16-19 November 1981. New York, United Nations, 1984. 4-6. (Population Studies No. 83 ST/ESA/SER.A/83)These recommendations refer specifically to the work of the Population Division of the UN and the regional commissions and more generally to the work of the specialized agenices, which prepare projections of labor force and school enroolment. The current recommendations may be regarded as updating an earlier detailed set that was issued by a similar group of experts who convened in New York in November 1977. The recommendations cover general considerations, sources and assumptions, evaluation of projections and their uses, and internal migration and urbanization. The Population Division should consider the question of an optimal time schedule for publishing new estimates and projections in order to avoid unduly long intervals between publications and intervals so short as to cause confusion. The UN Secretariat has an important role in pursuing work on methodology of projections and making it available to demographers in the developing countries. Unique problems of demographic projection exist for those countries with particularly small populations. It is proposed that the Population Division prepare special tabulations, whenever possible, giving the estimated age and sex distribution for these countries. Future publications of population projections prepared by the Population Division should indicate the major data sources on which the projections are based and note if the data were adjusted before inclusion. In addition, some grading of the quality of the base data should be presented. For the UN set of national and international population projections, a more comprehensive system of establishing assumptions about the future trends of fertility is needed. The Secretariat needs to focus more attention on the evaluation of its population projections. UN publications of projections should report on the main errors in recent past projections with respect to estimates of baseline levels and trends and provide some evaluation of the quality of the current estimates. It is recommended that the UN encourage countries to establish a standard definition of urban which would be used for international comparisons but generally not replace current national definitions. The Secretariat should review the techniques currently used to project urban-rural and city populations and search for methodologies appropriate to the level of urbanization and the quality of data which would improve the accuracy of the projections. The Division should regularly produce long range population projections for the world and major countries and should continue and expand its household estimates and projection series, which provides information essential to government administrators and planning agencies, businesses, and researchers in all countries.
Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.
New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
POPULATION: AN ENGLISH SELECTION. 1996; 8:258-70.We...compare the UN projections made in 1994 to the previous set in 1992 and to the Blue Plan projections, for [Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey, the] six most populated [developing countries in the Mediterranean region]....We shall also consider more briefly the lesser populated countries. This will enable us to appreciate the changes that have occurred in the UN's perception of population growth in this region. (EXCERPT)
New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. x, 72 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/137)This 1994 report revises prior 1992 UN world population estimates and projections for Africa. The revision accounts for the potential demographic impact of AIDS mortality. Revisions are made for 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that had HIV seroprevalence of greater than 1% of the adult population in 1990. Country profiles pertain to Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. This revision includes more than the 1992 adjustments. A more detailed evaluation is made of changes in the age distribution of population and mortality. A review is given of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and the potential social and economic impacts. It is estimated that 9 million deaths will be added in the 15 countries by 2005, of which 61% will occur in Uganda (1.8 million), Zaire (1.4 million), Tanzania (1.3 million), and Zambia (1.1 million). Almost 50% of deaths will occur among youth under 15 years of age. The mortality rate in the age group 25-49 years in 2000-2005 is expected to double to 11.1 deaths/1000 population due to AIDS. Because mortality occurs in the prime working and family care years, the potential impact is expected to be enormous. Patterns of caregiving among children and the elderly are expected to be greatly affected. Families and extended families may be required to care for "stigmatized" HIV-infected adults and children and to replace income-earning capabilities. Medical expenditures and funeral costs will reduce the availability of resources for fulfilling other basic needs. The health sector will be affected by an increased case load that for some countries could reach 1 million persons. Health facilities already strained by inadequate resources will experience tremendous pressure. The size and quality of the labor force will also be affected.
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. 1992 Jun; 18(2):333-40, 394, 396.Population projections to 2150 have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations, based on the Division's 1990 assessment of world population. These projections are described and compared to earlier UN series and analogous projections published by the World Bank. In the medium variant, widely used as a 'best guess' of the demographic future, world population reaches 10 billion by 2050 but adds only another 1.5 billion over the 100 years following. Low and high variant totals, defined by long-run fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.5 lifetime births per woman, are 8 and 12.5 billion in 2050 and 4 and 28 billion in 2150. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
International Family Planning Perspectives. 1991 Sep; 17(3):108-13.South Asia consisting of Bangladesh, India, Nepal Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, claims 1/5 to total world population with expected population growth of at least 200 million by the year 2000. Taking issue with assumptions behind World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) population projections for the region, the authors make less optimistic assumptions of country fertility and mortality trends when running population projections for the region. Following discussion of methodological issues for and analysis of population projections, the paper's alternate assumptions and projection results are presented and discussed. Projections were made for each country of the region over the period 1985-2010, based on assumptions that only very modest fertility declines and improvements in life expectancy would develop over most of the 1990s. South Asian population would therefore grow from over 1 billion in 1985, to 1.4 billion by 2000, and almost 1.8 billion by 2010. Overall slower fertility decline than assumed for the UN and WB projections point to larger population growth with momentum for continued, larger growth through the 21st century. Rapid, substantial population growth as envisioned by these projections will impede movement toward an urban-industrial economy, with a burgeoning labor force exceeding the absorptive capacity of the modern sector. Job seekers will pile up in agriculture and the informal sector. Demands upon the government to deliver education and health services will also be extraordinarily high. High-tech niches will, however, continue expanding in India and Pakistan with overall negative social effects. Their low demand for labor will exacerbate income disparities, fuel interpersonal, interclass, and interregional tensions, and only contribute to eventual ethnic, communal, and political conflict. Immediate, coordinated policy is urged to achieve balanced low mortality and low fertility over the next few decades.
Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, 1989 Dec. , 30 p. (Policy, Planning and Research Working Papers, WPS 337)On the basis of an assumption of the persistence of current demographic trends, a model is presented for the projection of short-term (1-2 decades) and long-term (1-2 centuries) mortality rates. Essentially, the model refines calculations of male and female life expectancy and takes infant mortality into account in the selection of the appropriate life tables. The analysis of data from developed and developing countries suggests a short-term life expectancy of 82.5 years and a long-term life expectancy of 90 years for women; male life expectancy is 6.7 years lower. For short-term predictions, the rate of change in the preceding 5 years and the proportion of females enrolled in secondary school are most significant. In terms of infant mortality, the rate is expected to decline to 6/1000 in the short-term and 3/1000 in the long- term. A split life table approach is then used, in which the infant mortality rate determines the level to select for mortality at the younger ages and life expectancy is the basis for level selection at the older ages. Application of this projection approach to 8 countries-- Zaire, Bolivia, Ghana, Pakistan, Thailand, Poland, Costa Rica, and Norway--produced mortality estimates that were within 2 percentage points of existing estimates. Infant mortality projections show a greater deviation, with faster falls than suggested by current World Bank estimates. A rapid mortality decline assumption allows life expectancy to be up to 6% higher in 1985-2100, the crude death rate up to 30% lower, and the infant mortality rate up to 50% lower, resulting overall in a population 8% above that expected under conditions of a medium decline. A slow decline pattern allows life expectancy to be 10% lower, the crude death rate up to 50% higher, and the infant mortality rate up to 170% higher than under conditions of medium mortality declines and produces a 13% population decline.
POPULATION TODAY. 1988 Jan; 16(1):3-4.Summary data are presented from the World Bank's "World Population 1987-88: Short and Long-Term Estimates by Age and Sex with Related Demographic Statistics." The projections do not differ much from those in the World Bank's 1985 projection except for large upward revisions for South Asian and West Asian countries and especially large upward revisions for Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, and Egypt. World population is expected to reach 10.4 billion in 2100 and to stabilize at 10 billion around year 2070. Intermediate figures are given for year 2000 (6.2 billion) and year 2050 (9.5 billion). The fifteen most populous countries in 2100 will be (in millions) China (1683), India (1678), Nigeria (529), Pakistan (395), USSR (385), Indonesia (363), Brazil (292), US (279), Ethiopia (204), Mexico (197), Iran (157), Philippines (137), Egypt (132), Japan (124), and Tanzania (123). The world's annual growth rate (currently 1.7%) will decrease to .9% in 2025 and .07% in 2100 due to decreasing birth rates, especially in Africa. Nevertheless, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will be 5 times its present size. The slowest annual growth will be for Europe, North America, and China; and the highest for Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
An examination of the population structure of Liberia within the framework of the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City Recommendations on Population and Development: policy implications and mechanism.
In: The 1984 International Conference on Population: the Liberian experience, [compiled by] Liberia. Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs. Monrovia, Liberia, Ministry of Planning and Economic Affairs, . 111-36.The age and sex composition and distribution of the population of Liberia as affected by fertility, mortality, morbidity, migration, and development are examined within the framework of the Kilimanjaro Program of Action and recommendations of the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City. The data used are projections (1984-85) published in the 2nd Socio-Economic Development Plan, 1980. The population of Liberia is increasing at the rate of 3.5% and will double in 23.1 years. 60% of the population is under 20 and 2% over 75. Projected life expectancy is 55.5 years for women and 53.4 years for men. The population is characterized by high age dependency; 47.1% of the people are under 15 and 2.9% are over 64, so that half of the population consists of dependent age groups, primarily the school-age children (6-11 years). If these children are to enter the labor force, it is estimated that 19,500 jobs will have to be created to employ them. Moreover, fertility remains at its constant high level (3.5%), so, as mortality declines, the economic problem becomes acute. Furthermore, high fertility is accompanied by high infant and maternal mortality. High infant mortality causes couples in rural areas to have more children. These interdependent circumstances point up the need for family planning, more adequate health care delivery systems, and increasing the number of schools to eradicate illiteracy, which is currently at 80%. Integrated planning and development strategies and appropriate allotment of funds must become part of the government's policy if the Kilimanjaro and Mexico City recommendations are to be implemented.
PEOPLE. 1987; 14(2):25.At some time during 1987 the 5 billionth person will be born according to the UN Population Division. If the UN media variant projections are accurate, the world will pass the 5 billion mark between April and July 1987. The world's population is expected to total 6 billion in 1999, 7 billion in 2010, and 8 billion in 2022. At the time the population reaches 5 billion, the annual global rate of population growth is estimated to be 1.63%. According to the medium-variant projections, the growth rate will drop to about 1.4% by 2000 and to less than 1% by 2025. Despite the relatively recent decline in the growth rate of the world, the annual increment to the total population continues to increase. Half of the world's 5 billion people in 1987 will be under age 24 and close to 1/3 will be children under age 15. 1 billion persons will be in the 15-24 age group; about 1 of 10 will be age 60 or older. 1 of 25 persons will be 70 years or older. By the middle of 1987, 42% of the world's population, or 2.1 billion people, will reside in urban areas, and it is anticipated that more than half of the world's 7 million people will live in towns and cities by 2010.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1987. vi, 247 p. (Population Studies, No. 102; ST/ESA/SER.A/102)WORLD POPULATION POLICIES presents, in 3 volumes, current information on the population policies of the 170 members states of the UN and non-member states. This set of reports in based on the continuous monitoring of population policies by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. It replaces POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY BRIEFS: CURRENT SITUATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, and POPULATION POLICY COMPENDIUM. Except where noted, the demographic estimates and projections cited in this report are based on the 10th round of global demographic assessments undertaken by the Population Division. Country reports are grouped alphabetically; Volume I contains Afghanistan to France. Each country's entry includes demographic indicators detailing population size, a structure, and growth; mortality and morbidity; fertility, nuptiality, and family; international migration; and spatial distribution and urbanization. Current perceptions of these demographic indicators are included, along with the country's general policy framework, institutional framework, and policies and measures. A brief glossary of terms and list of countries replying to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th inquiries are appended.
In: Population strategy in Asia. The Second Asian Population Conference, Tokyo, November 1972. Report, declaration and selected papers, [compiled by] United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East [ECAFE]. Bangkok, Thailand, ECAFE, 1974 Jun. 69-130. (Asian Population Study Series No. 28; E/C.N.11/1152)The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) region currently includes 31 countries and territories. Since the first Asian Population Conference in 1963, there has been greater recognition of the adverse effects of rapid population growth on national development and on the standard of living of individual family units. By the year 2000, the population of the ECAFE region is expected to almost equal the total for the world in 1970, despite significantly slowed population growth in the East Asia subregion. During the periods 1900-1950 and 1950-2000, the average annual rates of growth for the population of the ECAFE region are estimated at 0.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The 4 largest countries in the region--China, India, Indonesia, and Japan--together hold 78% of the region's total population. Even in the countries where there has been a decline in fertility, it has not been sufficient to offset the effects of corresponding declines in mortality. The 1950 population of each country, except for China and Japan, will at least double itself by the year 2000. The number of preschool-aged children is expected to reach 356 million by 1980 and there will be 609 million school-aged children. Children ages 0-14 years currently comprise about 40% of the total population of the ECAFE region, producing a high dependency burden. The female population in the reproductive age group will grow from 474 million in 1970 to 593 million in 1980, implying that the fertility potential of the region will be accelerated. In addition, the population of persons aged 60 years and over will increase from 117 million in 1970 to 158 million in 1980, requiring significant investments in health facilities and social security. The urban population in the region is expected to increase from 25% in 1970 to 45% by 2000. Despite widespread awareness of the interrelation of population and development, no common approach among demographers, family plannes, and economic plannes has emerged.
In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England, George Allen and Unwin, 1986. 367-89.The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization, such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics, we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows, whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
Canberra, Australia, The Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography, 1987 Mar 12.  p. (International Population Dynamics Program Research Note No. 68)The latest assessment of population prospects are investigated to uncover and evaluate the underlying suppositions of the UN vision of the future for Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Macao and Brunei were too small to be evaluated, and Taiwan was included with China. Improving trends in mortality are expected to continue, with countries immitating Hong Kong's dramatic improvement, and some countries adding 5 years to their life expectancy. Exceptions are Cambodia and Laos. There were some decelerations in mortality decline in some countries in the 1970s, e.g. Mongolia; Malaysia; Thailand; the Philippines; Laos. In general high mortality is best attacked through strong public health measures; education; and primary care. Improvements in medical resource availability and nutritional status have come, but with difficulty, especially in Southeastern Asia, and indicate no clear path. UN mortality decline projections are more optimistic than those appearing in other literature, which tends to point to slow economic growth and increasing population as detrimental factors. In general, although a slow population decline was in evidence in all countries, Eastern Asia fared better: only Mongolia had a 1980s total fertility rate >4.0, while in the southeast, rates were <4.0 only in Malaysia; Thailand; and Singapore. Also marital fertility may not be declining. In general there is a danger of complacency when projections are too optimistic. Government-sponsored contraceptive distribution and promotion has been indispensable to lowering fertility. Government participation in and atttitudes towards family planning and the woman's right to choose the number and timing of births will be essential to future population decline.
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):15-25.Over half of the 75 world cities projected to have populations exceeding 4 million by the year 2000 are in Asia. Asia's planners and city officials have developed and tested numerous policies and istruments for coping with rapid urban growth. These efforts have benefited from increased understanding of the demographic causes of urbanization, especially rural-urban migration. On an aggregate plane, the main consequences of urbanization have been metropolitanization, primacy, polarization, and centralization. Economic wealth, political power, and social status have become concentrated in capital cities; within cities, the increasing gap between privileged elites and impoverished masses has contributed to political radicalization among the poor. To cope with the problems of urbanization, many Asian authorities have set up metropolitan governments to handle area wide functions. Some cities have redefined their jurisdictions to incorporate outlying rural territories and small towns. The expansion of metropolitan jurisdiction prevents local government fragmentation and duplication of public services. It also allows for land-use controls over undeveloped areas that will be needed for urban expansion. In recent years, natural increase has been a more important factor in rapid urban growth than migration; thus, many Asian countries have adopted family planning programs to curb population growth. Most of the factors associated with declining fertility--educational achievement, employment of women, access to family planning services--are closely associated with urban culture, and urban fertility rates tend to be lower than those in rural areas. To be valid, urban policy goals must be integrated into broader development goals. Population issues permeate all stages of the planning process and should be viewed both as a cause and a consequence of economic and social development.
POPULI. 1986; 13(1):5-14.Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of developing countries will shift as a result of rapid world urbanization. In 1970 the total urban population of the more developed world regions was almost 30 million more than in the less developed regions; however, by the year 2000 the urban population of developing countries will be close to double that in developed countries. A growing proportion of the urban population will be concentrated in the biggest cities. At the same time, the rural population in developing countries is expected to increase as well, making it difficult to reduce the flow of migrants to urban centers. Although urban fertility in developing countries tends to be lower than rural fertility, it is still at least twice as high as in developed countries. The benefits of urbanization tend to be distributed unevenly on the basis of social class, resulting in a pattern of skewed income and standard of living. Social conditions in squatter settlments and urban slums are a threat to physical and mental health, and the educational system has not been able to keep up with the growth of the school-aged population in urban areas. The problems posed by urbanization should be viewed as challenges to social structures and scientific technologies to adapt with concern for human values. It is suggested than 4 premises about the urbanization process should guide urban planners: 1) urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world; 2) urban and rural populations should not be conceptualized in terms of diametrically opposed interest groups; 3) national policies will have an impact on urban areas, just as developments in the cities will impact on national development; and 4) the great cities of the world interact with each other, exchanging both trade and populations. The United Nations Family Planning Association stresses the need for 3 fundamental objectives: economic efficiency, social equity, and population balance.
Population Today. 1986 Feb; 14(2):3, 8.The UN recently released its lastest population projection for 1985-2025. Although demographers remain uncertain about the future shape and rate of population growth, the UN figures are generally regarded as representing the state of the art in projection making. The UN makes medium, high, and low variant projections. According to the medium variant, the world population, in millions, will be 4,837 in 1985, 6,122 in 2000, 7,414 in 2015, and 8,206 in 2025. High and low variant projections, in millions, for 2025 are 9,088 and 7,358. The medium variant projection indicates that between 1985-2025 the population, in millions, will increase from 3,663-6,809 in the developing countries but only from 1,1754-1,396 in the developed countries. In other words, the proportion of the world's population residing in the developed countries will decrease from 24%-17% between 1985-2025. The world's growth rate will continue to decline as it has since it peaked at 2.1% in 1965-70. According to the medium variant, the projected growth rate for the world will be 1.63% between 1985-90, 1.58% between 1990-95, 1.38% between 2000-05, 1.18% between 2010-15, and 0.96 between 2020-25. The growth rate will decrease from 1.94%-1.10% for the developing countries and from 0.60%-0.29% for the developed countries between 1985-2025. The medium variant projections assume that the total fertility rate will decrease from 3.3 in 1985-90 to 2.8 in 2000-05 and to 2.4 in 2020-25. Respective figures are 3.7, 3.0, and 2.4 for the developing countries only and 2.0, 2.0, and 2.1 for the developed countries only. By 2025 the age structure of the developing countries is expected to be similar to the current age structure of the developed countries. In 2025, the 10 countries with the largest populations and their expected populations, in millions, will be China (1,475), India (1,229), USSR (368), Nigeria (338), US (312), Indonesia (273), Brazil (246), Bangladesh (219), Pakistan (210), and Mexico (154). The populations of some countries which are relatively small at the present time will be quite large in 2025. For example, the population, in millions, will be 111 for Ethiopia and 105 for Vietnam. The projections are summarized in 4 tables.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 115-40, 329. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This paper reviews the various methods of projecting future numbers of households, summarizes prospective major trends in the numbers of households and the average household size among the developing countries prepared by the UN Population Division in 1981, and analyzes the size structure of households among the developing countries in contrast to the developed nations. The purpose of this analysis is to prepare household projections by size (average number of persons in a household) for the developing countries. The headship rate method is now the most widely used procedure for projecting households. The headship rate denotes a ratio of the number of heads of households, classified by sex, age, and other demographic characteristics such as marital status, to the corresponding classes of population. When population projections have become available by sex, age, and other characteristics, the projected number of households is obtained by adding up over all classes the product of projected population and projected headship rate. In addition to the headship rate method, this paper also reviews other approaches, namely, simple household-to-population ratio method; life-table method, namely the Brown-Glass-Davidson models; vital statistics method by Illing; and projections by simulation. Experience indicates that the effect of changes in population by sex and age is usually the most important determinant of the change in the number of households and it would be wasteful if the household projections failed to employ readily population projections. Future changes in the number of households among the developing countries are very significant. According to the 1981 UN projections, the future increase in the number of households both in the developed and developing countries will far exceed that in population. In 1975-80 the annual average growth rate of households was 2.89% for the developing countries as a whole while that for population was 2.08%. In 1980-85, the growth rate for households for the developing countries will be 2.99%, while that for population will be 2.04%. In 1995-2000 the figure for household growth will be 2.89%, whereas that for population will be 1.77%. The past trend of fertility is the most important factor for the reduction of household size and it would continuously be the central factor. The increasing headship rates will be observed among the sex-age groups, except the young female groups, as a result of increasing nuclearization in households.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 39-57, 326-7. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)A comparative study on mortality trends of developing countries was conducted by making use of UN projections of mortality measures. These mortality measures projected by the UN were used to observe future prospects of general mortality trends in selected countries. Under several research projects of the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), some attempts were made to analyze recent trends of cause-specific mortality covering several selected countries. Estimates of future changes in cause-specific mortality may be considered useful to supply basic information needed for social and economic development planning of a country. Trends of mortality changes in the 1950s and 1960s were characterized in many countries by a rapid decline. Such a declining trend of mortality was brought about initially by a successful control of infectious and parasitic diseases accompanied by improvements in living conditions of the people in general. Thus the mortality of less developed countries that had been affected to a greater extent directly by infectious and parasitic diseases could be improved more drastically at such a stage. After the 1970s the pace of decline in mortality slowed down gradually to a considerable extent all over the world but was more prominent among more developed countries. In most countries mentioned in this discussion, regardless of whether they are more or less developed, the crude death rate is expected to reach the lowest level within a few decades. In many instances of developing countries, the crude death rate is assumed to reach such a minimum level in and around 2000. After reaching the lowest level, the crude death rate will turn to increase in varying degrees. Such a rise in crude death rate does not imply deterioration of mortality conditions. The crude death rate is often affected by the sex-age composition of the population. In contrast to the crude death rate, in most countries selected here, the expectation of life at birth is expected to expand steadily towards the future during the whole duration of this projection. An analytical observation was made on the cause-specific mortality for 10 selected countries covering the period from 1970 to the latest year for which basic data were available on the 8th (1965) revision of International Statistical Classification. Future prospects of cause structure of deaths will be very much influenced by proccesses effected by policy making and planning, and projections of cause-specific mortality should be made with an aim toward providing useful information for policy making and planning for national development.
In: Population prospects in developing countries: structure and dynamics, edited by Atsushi Otomo, Haruo Sagaza, and Yasuko Hayase. Tokyo, Japan, Institute of Developing Economies, 1985. 1-15, 325. (I.D.E. Statistical Data Series No. 46)This discussion covers the prospects of population growth in Asian countries, prospects of changes in sex-age structures in Asian countries, and the effect of urbanization on national population growth in developing countries. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, size of total population of Asian countries recorded 2580 million in 1980, which accounted for 58.2% of total population of the world. As it had shown 1390 million, accounting for 55.1% of the world population in 1950, it grew at a higher annual increase rate of 2.08% than that of 1.90% for the world average during the 30 years. On the basis of the UN population projections assessed in 1980 (medium variant), the world population attains 6121 million by 2000, and Asian population records 3555 million, which is 58.0% of the total population of the world and which is a slightly smaller share than in 1980. The population of East Asia shows 1475 million and that of South Asia 2077 million. During 20 years after 1980, the population growth becomes much faster in South Asia than in East Asia. After 1980 the population growth rate in Asia as well as on the world average shows a declining trend. In Asia it indicates 1.72% for 1980-90 and 1.50% for 1990-2000, whereas on the world average it shows 1.76% and 1.49%, respectively. The population density for Asia showing 94 persons per square kilometer, slightly lower than that of Europe (99 persons) as of 1980, records 129 persons per square kilometer and exceeds that of Europe (105 persons) in 2000. According to the UN estimates assessed in 1980, the sex ratio for the world average indicates 100.7 males/100 females as of 1980, and it shows 104.1 for Asia. This is higher than that for the average of developing countries (103.2). In the year 2000 it is observed generally in the UN projections that the countries with a sex ratio of 100 and over as of 1980 show a decrease but those with the ratio smaller than 100 record an increase. Almost all Asian countries are projected to indicate a decrease in the proportion of population aged 0-14 against the increases in that aged 15-64 and in that aged 65 and older between 1980-2000. In 1980 the proportion of population aged 0-14 showed more than 40.0% in most of the Asian countries. In the year 2000 almost all the countries in East Asia and Eastern South Asia indicate larger than 60.0% in the proportion of adult population. Urbanization brings about the effects of reducing the speed of increase in a national population and of causing significant changes in sex and age structures of the national population. Considering the future acceleration of urbanization in Asian countries, the prospects of growth and changes in sex and age structures of populations in Asian countries may need to be revised from the standpoint of subnational population changes.