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New York, New York, United Nations, 2007.  p. (ESA/P/WP.202)The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt)
UN Chronicle. 1990 Dec; 27(4): p..An estimated 8 to 10 million people globally will contract the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) that causes the acquired immuno-deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the next 10 years, a new study by the World Health Organization (WHO) predicts. That figure marks a significant and alarming rise of 2 million more people than WHO's projections last year. Equally dramatic are statistics showing that HIV is spreading fast among women and children in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. An estimated 3 million women will develop AIDS in the 1990s and at least 80 per cent are in sub-Saharan Africa, WHO suggested. By the end of 1992, there will be 1 million HIV-infected children born to these women. AIDS will become the leading cause of death of women aged 20 to 40 in some cities of central Africa. "It's obvious that HIV infection is continuing to spread very rapidly in parts of the world like central Africa, where AIDS is having a devastating impact on individual countries", said Dr. Michael H. Merson, Director of WHO's Global Programme on AIDS (GPA), in a recent interview. (excerpt)
2003 world population data sheet of the Population Reference Bureau. Demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world.
Washington, D.C., PRB, 2003. 13 p.With every passing year, prospects for population growth in the more developed and less developed countries grow more dissimilar. On this year’s Data Sheet, the total fertility rate (TFR) for the more developed countries is a mere 1.5, compared with 3.1 in the less developed countries—3.5 if outlier China’s large statistical effect is removed. But the passage of time, as well as the difference in fertility rates, is ensuring that the two types of countries can expect to continue to have different population sizes in the future. The decline in Europe’s fertility rates is not a recent phenomenon; those rates have been low for quite some time. As a result, there have been long-term changes to age distributions in Europe, and this “youth dearth” is now taking on a more significant role in the near certainty of population decline. (excerpt)
In: Population policies and programmes. Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Policies and Programmes, Cairo, Egypt, 12-16 April 1992. New York, New York, United Nations, 1993. 27-41. (ST/ESA/SER.R/128)The world population reached 5.4 billion in mid-1991, and it is growing by 1.7% per annum. The medium-variant United Nations population projection for the year 2025 is now 8.5 billion, 260 million more than the United Nations projection in 1982. This implies reducing the total fertility rate in the developing countries from 3.8 to 3.3 by the year 2000 and increasing contraceptive prevalence from 51 to 59%. This will involve extending family planning services to 2 billion people. For the first time, fertility is declining worldwide, as governments have adopted fertility reduction measures through primary health care education, employment, housing, and the enhanced status of women. Since the 1960s, contraceptive prevalence in developing countries has grown from less than 10% to slightly over 50%. However, 300 million men and women worldwide who desire to plan their families lack contraceptives. Life expectancy has been increasing: for the world, it is 65.5 years for 1990-1995. Infant mortality rates have been halved. Child mortality has plummeted, but in more than one-third of the developing countries it still exceeds 100 deaths/1000 live births. Globally, child immunization coverage increased from only 5% in 1974 to 80% in 1990. At the beginning of the 1980s, only about 100,000 persons worldwide were infected with HIV. During the 1980s, 5-10 million people became infected. WHO projects that the cumulative global total of HIV infections will be between 30 and 40 million by 2000. The European governments are concerned with growing international migration. Currently, 34.5% of governments have adopted policies to lower immigration. In the early 1970s, the number of refugees worldwide was about 3.5 million; by the late 1980s, they had increased to nearly 17 million. A Program of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the 1990s was adopted in September 1990 to strengthen the partnership with the international donor community.
[The United Nations revises its world population predictions upward] L'ONU revoit a la hausse ses previsions sur la population mondiale.
EQUILIBRES ET POPULATIONS. 2001 Mar; (66):5.Despite considerable excess mortality due to AIDS in countries and regions around the globe, high fertility in developing countries could add 500 million more people than projected to world population over the next 50 years. Medium-level UN projections anticipate a total world population of 9.3 billion individuals by 2050. Due to high fertility levels, the population of developing countries will grow from 4.9 billion people in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050. If the mean number of children per woman worldwide is 2.82, the 48 countries located in the world’s least developed regions have average total fertility rates greater than 5 children per woman. Most recent UN population projections for 2050 are higher than previous calculations due to a re-examination of fertility rates for 16 developing countries which will alone add 374 million people. The correction is particularly important in the cases of Bangladesh and Nigeria. At the same time, while the extent of AIDS mortality will increase over the next 5 years, to afflict 15.5 million people in the 45 worst-hit countries, those countries’ populations should continue to expand due to high fertility. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36%, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where HIV/AIDS infection rates are over 25%, the populations should continue to grow significantly over the next 50 years: by 37% in Botswana, 148% in Swaziland, and 86% in Zimbabwe. Only South Africa should see its population decline until 2025, then expand again. In this context, international migration and demographic aging are considered.
New York, New York, United Nations, 1994. x, 72 p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/137)This 1994 report revises prior 1992 UN world population estimates and projections for Africa. The revision accounts for the potential demographic impact of AIDS mortality. Revisions are made for 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa that had HIV seroprevalence of greater than 1% of the adult population in 1990. Country profiles pertain to Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. This revision includes more than the 1992 adjustments. A more detailed evaluation is made of changes in the age distribution of population and mortality. A review is given of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and the potential social and economic impacts. It is estimated that 9 million deaths will be added in the 15 countries by 2005, of which 61% will occur in Uganda (1.8 million), Zaire (1.4 million), Tanzania (1.3 million), and Zambia (1.1 million). Almost 50% of deaths will occur among youth under 15 years of age. The mortality rate in the age group 25-49 years in 2000-2005 is expected to double to 11.1 deaths/1000 population due to AIDS. Because mortality occurs in the prime working and family care years, the potential impact is expected to be enormous. Patterns of caregiving among children and the elderly are expected to be greatly affected. Families and extended families may be required to care for "stigmatized" HIV-infected adults and children and to replace income-earning capabilities. Medical expenditures and funeral costs will reduce the availability of resources for fulfilling other basic needs. The health sector will be affected by an increased case load that for some countries could reach 1 million persons. Health facilities already strained by inadequate resources will experience tremendous pressure. The size and quality of the labor force will also be affected.
POPULATION TODAY. 1992 Oct; 20(10):1-2.Reaching 5.5 billion in mid-1992, global population is basically on track with population projections made in 1990. About 60% of the world's population currently lives in ten countries; China and India together comprise 38% of the total. At the growth rate of 1.7%, 750 million people will be added to the world by the end of the decade, with populations of less developed countries growing four times faster than those in the more developed regions. Although the overall growth rate is as projected, all is not as expected at the country level. Compared with 1990 estimates, several African countries are growing more slowly than expected, largely due to AIDS. It is noted, however, that the UN's projected effects of the AIDS epidemic on population size are modest compared to recent speculation that AIDS could halt population growth in Africa. Latin America is also growing slower than expected due to a faster than expected decline in fertility. China is growing a bit faster than expected and India is growing a bit slower. With its 1992 revisions, the UN Population Division for the first time took into account the potential demographic impact of the AIDS pandemic. Life expectancies have been adjusted downward in the 15 countries where AIDS has the highest prevalence: Benin, Burundi, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. AIDS could reduce population growth by 20 million in these countries over the next 25 years. Population growth rates will nonetheless remain strongly positive in the next few decades with the rapid pace of fertility affecting future population growth far more than mortality or any other demographic parameter. The new projections also take into account recent international migration and sweeping global political changes.
SCIENCE. 1991 Apr 19; 252:372-3.WHO and U.S. Centers for Disease Control data on HIV/AIDS prevalence as of April 1991 are summarized, as they were shown to a meeting of molecular biologists. WHO estimates that there are about 1 million cases of AIDS, and 8-10 million infected with HIV, although only 340,000 cases of AIDS have been reported to Geneva. In sub-Saharan Africa, 700,000 cases and 6 million carriers are estimated, including 500,000 infected infants. 15-20% of the workforce are predicted to die, leaving 10 million orphans within 10 years. HIV-related tuberculosis is a new problem. In Asia, there are estimated 500,000 people infected, mostly in Thailand, but also many in Bombay and Madras, India. Spread of HIV from prostitutes to migrant workers is a fear. In Latin America about 1 million are infected, with very high rates in some locations such as Haiti. Despite excellent interventions in Jamaica and Trinidad, infection rates are climbing. There are about 1 million infected in North America, 500,000 in Western Europe, largely limited to certain subgroups, and similar rates in Australia and New Zealand. Northern Africa, Eastern Europe and the USSR have much lower HIV prevalence so far. WHO predicts 15-20 million infected by 1995-2000.