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  1. 1
    042470

    Demographic estimates and projections.

    El-Badry MA; Kono S

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):35-43.

    The periodic assessment of global population growth from the past to the future has been one of the UN's most important contributions to member states and many other users. Available data and applicable analysis and projection methods were very limited in 1947, when the 1st global population estimates and projections were attempted. The 1st contributions of the Commission were manuals for these functions. Throughout the 1950s, 4 regional reports on Central and South America; Southeast Asia; and Asia and the far East were published. UN studies during this period tended to group regions by their position on a continuum of the demographic transition. Rough but alarming projections of population growth appeared. Projection technics were refined and standardized in the 1960s, and the demand grew for more specialized technics, e.g. dealing with urban/rural populations; the labor force; and other elements. The availability of computer technology at the end of the decade multiplied the projection capabilities, and the total population projections for the future were larger than ever. The 1970s projections, based on the more accurate and widely covered baseline data which had become available in developing countries, were also aided by more powerful and innovative indirect estimation technics; better software, and computers with larger capacities. By 1982, only a few countries were left with a total lack of data. A revision of estimates and projections is now undertaken biennially, incorporating the latest available data, utilizing advanced analytical methods and computer technology. Methodological manuals have been produced as the by-product of the revisions. UN demographic estimates and projections could be further improved by injection of a probabilistic element and the inclusion of economic factors. Roles for the future include maintenance of regional and interregional comparability of assumptions.
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  2. 2
    030241

    Speech at the UN International Conference on Population, Mexico City, August, 1984.

    Wang W

    China Population Newsletter. 1984 Aug; 1(3):1-3.

    In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.
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  3. 3
    016084

    Evaluation report of the World Fertility Survey.

    Smith TE; Berquo E; Fisek NH; Knodel J; Ordonez-Plaja A; Presser HB

    [Unpublished] 1980 Dec. 183 p. (ADSS AID/DSPE-C-0053)

    A general report follows the "Executive Summary" of this evaluation of the World Fertility Survey (WFS). The general report covers the following: previous evaluations, terms of references, and composition and itinerary for the Evaluation Mission; background and objectives of WFS (origin of the program; objectives, priorities, and strategies); organization aspects of the WFS program (headquarters, country participation, operating procedures, survey organization, and coordination); inputs (scope of support to the program, procedures for provision of funds, headquarters costs, costs of country surveys, and complementary support to the program); methodological aspects of the program (sampling procedures; questionnaires, survey procedures, and basic documentation; data processing and archives; and production of the 1st country report); execution of national surveys (nature, character, and significance of WFS assistance; implementation of survey procedures); analysis (evaluative, illustrative, 2nd stage, and comparative analyses); building the national capability (contribution to survey taking capability, contribution to data processing capability, and contribution to analatical capability); dissemination of survey results (national meetings, limits of WFS participation in national dissemination activities, actual and potential audience for WFS survey results, and libraries in the WFS despository system); and use of WFS survey results. Conclusions are reported, recommendations are made, and country reports are included for the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, and the Philippines. The 1st objective of the WFS is to help countries acquire scientific information that will allow them to describe and interpret their populations' fertility, to identify meaningful differentials in patterns of fertility and fertility regulation, and to provide improved data in order to facilitate efforts in economic, social, and health planning. As of July 1980, a total of 36 less developed countries had completed fertility survey fieldwork, and of these 21 had published their First Country Report. The following were among the conclusions reached concerning this 1st objective: the sampling, training, field supervision, editing, and data processing standards set by the WFS for the national executing agencies were higher than those which characterized previous surveys; data processing was the major bottleneck in the participating countries during the surveys; and at all stages of the survey there was a conflict between the time constraints on completing the survey and getting the report out and the desire to rely as much as possible on local personnel. As far as utilization of WFS data, at this stage the Mission was able to evaluate only the short range use of the results.
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