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    157611

    [The United Nations revises its world population predictions upward] L'ONU revoit a la hausse ses previsions sur la population mondiale.

    EQUILIBRES ET POPULATIONS. 2001 Mar; (66):5.

    Despite considerable excess mortality due to AIDS in countries and regions around the globe, high fertility in developing countries could add 500 million more people than projected to world population over the next 50 years. Medium-level UN projections anticipate a total world population of 9.3 billion individuals by 2050. Due to high fertility levels, the population of developing countries will grow from 4.9 billion people in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050. If the mean number of children per woman worldwide is 2.82, the 48 countries located in the world’s least developed regions have average total fertility rates greater than 5 children per woman. Most recent UN population projections for 2050 are higher than previous calculations due to a re-examination of fertility rates for 16 developing countries which will alone add 374 million people. The correction is particularly important in the cases of Bangladesh and Nigeria. At the same time, while the extent of AIDS mortality will increase over the next 5 years, to afflict 15.5 million people in the 45 worst-hit countries, those countries’ populations should continue to expand due to high fertility. Even in Botswana, where HIV prevalence is 36%, or in Swaziland and Zimbabwe, where HIV/AIDS infection rates are over 25%, the populations should continue to grow significantly over the next 50 years: by 37% in Botswana, 148% in Swaziland, and 86% in Zimbabwe. Only South Africa should see its population decline until 2025, then expand again. In this context, international migration and demographic aging are considered.
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