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  1. 1
    316765

    World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Highlights.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2007. [118] p. (ESA/P/WP.202)

    The 2006 Revision is the twentieth round of official United Nations population estimates and projections prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. These are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information. The 2006 Revision builds on the 2004 Revision and incorporates both the results of the 2000 round of national population censuses and of recent specialized surveys carried around the world. These sources provide both demographic and other information to assess the progress made in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The comprehensive review of past worldwide demographic trends and future prospects presented in the 2006 Revision provides the population basis for the assessment of those goals. According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons annually. (excerpt)
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  2. 2
    296466

    Commission gives high priority to monitoring global trends - UN Population Commission meeting, Mar 28-31, 1994 - includes information on preparation of action program to be recommended at the Sep 5-13, 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, Egypt.

    UN Chronicle. 1994 Jun; 31(2):[3] p..

    The effect of population growth on the environment, the role and status of women, and the demographic implications of development Policies were among major topics discussed by the Population Commission at its twenty-seventh session (28-31 March, New York). "The most important lesson we have learned is that population growth and other demographic trends can only be affected by investing in people and by promoting equality between women and men", Dr. Nafis Sadik, Executive Director of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and Secretary-General of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, told the 26-member body. In the single text approved during the session, for adoption by the Economic and Social Council, the Commission asked that high priority be given to monitoring world population trends and policies, and to strengthening multilateral technical cooperation to address population concerns. (excerpt)
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  3. 3
    292219

    Household projections under the current AIDS pandemic.

    Springer S

    Habitat Debate. 2001 Jun; 7(2):[3] p..

    Population and household projections are of crucial importance to both policy makers and researchers who depend on timely and reliable projections to make informed decisions and to produce quality research studies. Currently, one of the most problematic areas regarding projections is the demographic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with high prevalence rates i.e. how the epidemic is influencing population and household projections. At the end of the year 2000, 36.1 million people were estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS, of which 1.4 million were children. 47 per cent of the infected adults were women. 5.3 million people will be newly infected during this year. The pandemic does not spread homogeneously. The number of infections, the risk of dying, the access to medication and the principal transmission ways vary worldwide, and so does the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on population structure and on household formation. In countries where the epidemic is endemic in the general population, the impact on the age and gender structure of the population is significant, and changes in the social context and behaviour are certain. (excerpt)
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  4. 4
    276973
    Peer Reviewed

    Population futures for the next three hundred years: Soft landing or surprises to come?

    Demeny P

    Population and Development Review. 2004 Sep; 30(3):507-517.

    World Population in 2300 (United Nations 2003b), reporting on the proceedings of a December 2003 expert group meeting on long-range population projections and presenting the results of a new set of United Nations population projections, bears out Hajnal's argument. Among his three propositions, the validity of the second is the most obvious. There has been a veritable outpouring of demographic projections during the last 50 years, prepared by various international organizations and national agencies, as well as by independent analysts. Among these, the United Nations Population Division's now biennially revised projections are by far the most detailed, best known, and most widely used. This well-deserved prominence reflects the Division's unparalleled access to national data, its in-house analytic experience and resources, and its willingness to draw on outside expertise whenever that might usefully complement its own. The most recent of the biennial projections, the 2002 Revision (United Nations 2003a), is the immediate predecessor of World Population in 2300, and indeed the former provides the year 2000 to 2050 component for the new set of long-term projections covering the next 300 years. This new set is not just one among the many. It is distinguished from the routine by an exceptionally brave ambition: to draw a picture of plausible demographic futures up to the year 2300 and to do so in extraordinary detail: country-by-country according to the political map of the early twenty-first century. (excerpt)
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  5. 5
    281168

    World population ageing: 1950-2050.

    United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, New York, United Nations, 2001. [48] p. (ST/ESA/SER.A/207)

    The Population Division of the United Nations has a long tradition of studying population ageing, including estimating and projecting older populations, and examining the determinants and consequences of population ageing. From the groundbreaking report on population ageing in 1956, which focused mainly on population ageing in the more developed countries, to the first United Nations wallchart on population ageing issues published in 1999, the Population Division has consistently sought to bring population ageing to the attention of the international community. The present report is intended to provide a solid demographic foundation for the debates and follow-up activities of the Second World Assembly on Ageing. The report considers the process of population ageing for the world as a whole, for more and less developed regions, major areas and regions, and individual countries. Demographic profiles covering the period 1950 to 2050 are provided for each country, highlighting the relevant indicators of population ageing. (excerpt)
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  6. 6
    272961

    Proceeding of the World Population Conference, Rome, Italy, 31 August-10 September 1954. Summary report.

    World Population Conference (1954: Rome)

    New York, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 1955. 207 p.

    The 1954 World Population Conference was the 1st scientific conference on the problems of population to be held under the auspices of the United Nations. This document describes the organization of the conference and contains a list of the 28 meetings held, the topics of discussion of each meeting, a list of the papers contributed and their authors, and a summary report of each meeting. Annex A provides a list of the officers of the conference and members of cimmittees. Annex B lists the participants and contributors. Topics discussed include mortality trends; demographic statistics--quality, techniques of measurement and analysis; fertility trends; new census undertakings; migration; legislation, administrative programs and services for population control; population projection methods and prospects; preliterate peoples; age distribution; socioeconomic consequences of an aging population; demographic aspects of socioeconomic development; design and control of demographic field studies; agricultural and industrial development; genetics and population; research on fertility and intelligence; social implications of population changes; recruitment and training of demographic researchers and teachers; forecast for world population growth and distribution; and economic and social implications of the present population trends.
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  7. 7
    082184

    Europe and Central Asia Region, Middle East and North Africa Region, population projections, 1992-93 edition.

    Vu MT; Bos E; Levin A

    Washington, D.C., World Bank, Population and Human Resources Dept., 1992 Nov. xcv, 203 p. (Policy Research Working Papers WPS 1016)

    Statistical information and a summary introduction were provided for Eastern Europe and Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East, and North African regions for selected demographic and economic measures. Measures included income, birth and death rates, fertility rates, rate of natural increase, net migration rate, growth rate, infant mortality rate, dependency ratio, and population projections to 2150. Detailed age and sex distributions were also provided. Both World Bank and nonborrower countries were included. The figures were updated from the 1990-91 Edition. The summary described and discussed recent demographic trends and future projections, and reviewed countries and regions by income level. Noteworthy changes by country were indicated. World Bank borrower countries were divided into the following regions: sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, which were regrouped into 4-6 country departments and into 4 income groups. The largest population was in East Asia and the Pacific with 30% of world population. Other large regions included South Asia with 21%, Africa with 10%, Europe and Central Asia with 9%, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8%, and the Middle East and North Africa with 5%. Country departments reflected the regions as a whole, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa with growth rates of 32.% to 2.8%. East Africa had the highest rates and Sahelian and South African countries the lowest rates. The Middle Eastern countries had rates of 3.0% in contrast to North African countries rates of 2.7%. Diversity was greatest in Asian departments. Rates were 2.0-2.6% in South Asia and 1.9-1.4% in East Asian and Pacific departments. The lowest rates were in European and Central Asian departments. In 1992, less developed countries comprised 77% of the world population. The projections indicated that by 2150 the population would reach 12.2 billion, of which 88% would live in developing countries. The 1992 projections differed from 1990-91's in that the projections were revised downward due to AIDS mortality. World fertility was projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by 2000 and 2.4 by 2025. Life expectancy was expected to reach 70 years in about 2010. The proportion aged would rise in more developed countries.
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  8. 8
    048415

    Forty years of United Nations: a tribute to the saga.

    El-Badry MA

    In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1985. Cairo, Egypt, Cairo Demographic Centre, 1986. 3-7. (Cairo Demographic Centre Research Monograph Series No. 15.)

    On the 40th anniversary of the UN, demographers should pay special tribute to the UN's main demographic arm, the UN Population Division. There is no research worker in the field who has not learned from the Division's consecutive studies in mortality, fertility, migration, labor force, interrelationships with development factors, or the methodology of analysis from model life tables to stable population techniques or methods of assessment of the demographic impact of family planning. The author singles out the study entitled "The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends," which provides a digest of the findings of scientific studies concerning the relationships between population variables and economic and social development factors. The expertise of the Population Division has been behind most of the international gatherings in the field, collaborating and contributing to their organization and conduct, starting with the Rome conference of 1954 to that of Belgrade in 1965 to the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974 and finally to the International Conference on Population held in Mexico City in 1984. The Division's involvement in population and development and in population policies dates back to the early 1960s when the UN decided to pay due attention to the implications of population trends for development. A principal source of information in the policy area was, and still is, inquiry among governments concerning population and development and including population policies, conducted periodically by the Division as recommended by the World Population Plan of Action. The development of the UN population projections led to the important by-products of the manuals on demographic estimation and the development of computer programs for projections. Thus the stage was set for further development of work in this field from the 1970s until now: further methodological refinements, more information and substance to utilize in preparing the assumptions, more details, and more indicators.
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  9. 9
    042470

    Demographic estimates and projections.

    El-Badry MA; Kono S

    POPULATION BULLETIN OF THE UNITED NATIONS. 1986; (19-20):35-43.

    The periodic assessment of global population growth from the past to the future has been one of the UN's most important contributions to member states and many other users. Available data and applicable analysis and projection methods were very limited in 1947, when the 1st global population estimates and projections were attempted. The 1st contributions of the Commission were manuals for these functions. Throughout the 1950s, 4 regional reports on Central and South America; Southeast Asia; and Asia and the far East were published. UN studies during this period tended to group regions by their position on a continuum of the demographic transition. Rough but alarming projections of population growth appeared. Projection technics were refined and standardized in the 1960s, and the demand grew for more specialized technics, e.g. dealing with urban/rural populations; the labor force; and other elements. The availability of computer technology at the end of the decade multiplied the projection capabilities, and the total population projections for the future were larger than ever. The 1970s projections, based on the more accurate and widely covered baseline data which had become available in developing countries, were also aided by more powerful and innovative indirect estimation technics; better software, and computers with larger capacities. By 1982, only a few countries were left with a total lack of data. A revision of estimates and projections is now undertaken biennially, incorporating the latest available data, utilizing advanced analytical methods and computer technology. Methodological manuals have been produced as the by-product of the revisions. UN demographic estimates and projections could be further improved by injection of a probabilistic element and the inclusion of economic factors. Roles for the future include maintenance of regional and interregional comparability of assumptions.
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  10. 10
    024924

    Current projection assumptions for the United Nations demographic projections.

    United Nations. Secretariat

    In: United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population projections: methodology of the United Nations. New York, N.Y., United Nations, 1984. 25-32. (Population Studies, No. 83; ST/ESA/SER.A/83)

    The United Nations population projection assumptions are statements of expected trends in fertility, mortality and migration in the world. In every assessment, each of the 3 demographic components is unambiguously specified at the national level for each of the 5-year periods during the population interval (1950-2025). The approach used by the UN in preparing its projections is briefly summarized. At the general level, the analyst relies on available information of past events and current demographic levels and differentials, the demographic trends and experiences of similar countries in the region and his or her informed interpretations of what is likely to occur in the future. One common feature of the UN population projections that guides the analyst in preparing the assumptions is the general conceptual scheme of the demographic transition, or the socio-economic threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. As can be observed from the projected demographic trends reported in this paper, population stabilization at low levels of fertility, mortality and migration is the expected future for each country, with the only important differences being the timing of the stabilization. Irrespective of whether the country is developed, with very low fertility (for example, the Federal Republic of Germany or Japan), or developing with high fertility (such as, Bangladesh or the Syrian Arab Republic), it is assumed that fertility will arrive at replacement levels in the not too distant future. Serious alternative theories or hypotheses of population change, such as declining population size, are not only very few in number, but they tend to be somewhat more unacceptable and inconvenient to the demographic analyst as well as being considerably less palatable to goverments.
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  11. 11
    016931

    Population in the Arab world: problems and prospects.

    Omran AR

    New York, United Nations Fund for Population Activities; London, England, Croom Helm, 1980. 215 p.

    The Arab population, consisting of 20 states and the people of Palestine, was almost 153 million in 1978 and is expected to reach 300 million by the year 2000. Most Arab countries have a high population growth rate of 3%, a young population structure with about 50% under age 15, a high rate of marriage, early age of marriage, large family size norm, and an agrarian rural community life, along with a high rate of urban expansion. Health patterns are also similar with epidemic diseases leading as causes of mortality and morbidity. But there is uneven distribution of wealth in the region with per capita annual income ranging from US$100 in Somalia to US$12,050 in Kuwait; health care is also more elaborate in the wealthier countries. Fertility rates are high in most countries, with crude birthrates about 45/1000 compared with 32/1000 in the world as a whole and 17/1000 in most developed countries. In many Arab countries up to 30-50% of total investment is involved in population-related activities compared to 15% in European countries. There is also increasing pressure in the educational and health systems with the same amount of professionals dealing with an increasing amount of people. Unplanned and excessive fertility also contributes to health problems for mothers and children with higher morbidity, mortality, and nutrition problems. Physical isolation of communities contributes to difficulties in spreading health care availability. Urban population is growing rapidly, 6%/year in most Arab cities, and at a rate of 10-15% in the cities of Kuwait and Qatar; this rate is not accompanied by sufficient urban planning policies or modernization. A unique population problem in this area is that of the over 2 million Palestinians living in and outside the Middle East who put demographic pressures on the Arab countries. 2 major constraints inhibit efforts to solve the Arab population problem: 1) the difficulty of actually reallocating the people to achieve more even distribution, and 2) cultural and political sensitivities. Since in the Arab countries fertility does not correlate well with social and economic indicators, it is possible that development alone will not reduce the fertility of the Arab countries unless rigorous and effective family planning policies are put into action.
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  12. 12
    004731

    Estimates and projections of the number of households by country, 1975-2000 based on the 1973 assessment of population estimates and projections.

    United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division

    New York, UN, 1981 May 15. 76 p. (ESA/P/WP.73)

    The household estimates and projections presented in this report cover the period 1975-2000 and use the population estimates as assessed in 1978. The purpose of these household estimates is to respond to the need for demographic projections in terms of individual traits such as sex, age, labor force status, occupation, and urban-rural residential status and in terms of group characteristics such as the family and household composition. Families and households form the primary unit where individuals are socialized and interact with each other, and, consequently, can be considered as the molecular units of a population. The objectives of this report are to apply existing projections methods to available data, discuss the major problems encountered in their application, especially with regard to the estimation and projection of headship rates, and present the results. The detailed results are presented in tables and provide the total number of households, their annual rates of growth, and average household size by area, region, and country for each 5-year period between 1975 and 2000 according to medium, high, low, and constant variants. During the next 2 decades, it is expected that the number of households in the world will increase at a faster rate than the world's population. The total number of households of the world, which is estimated to have been about 909 million in 1975, is projected to increase by another 775 million (85%), reaching 1684 million by the turn of the century (medium variant). The range of the low and high variants is 1622 and 1754 million, respectively. The average household size for the world population is projected to decline from 4.4 persons in 1975 to 3.7 persons in the year 2000, reflecting the expected future fertility declines and the assumed increases in headship rates. The relatively rapid increases of households projected for the less developed regions is largely due to their high rates of population growth and to expected changes in headship rates. Among the 8 major areas of the world, the rate of increase in the number of households will be the highest in Africa and Latin America. The lowest average annual growth is expected in Europe.
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  13. 13
    205092

    Computer software programs for demographic analysis: aspects of technical co-operation.

    United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development

    New York, New York, United Nations, 1983. iv, 29 p. (ST/ESA/SER.E/32.)

    As part of its technical co-operation in the analysis of population and related demographic data, the UN Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (DTCD) explores innovative methods for increasing the capacity of developing countries to analyze demographic data and prepare population projections speedily and accurately, to meet urgent development needs. The development and increasing availability of computer software programs for demographic analysis will greatly facilitate detailed analysis of demographic and socioeconomic data derived from censuses, surveys, and vital statistics, and aid in the preparation of population projections. DTCD conducted a study of available aoftware packages for demographic analysis and their capabilities and limitations in adapting them to specific minicomputers or microcomputers. The present paper examines 3 major software packages covering the widest range of technics for demographic analysis and population projections. These include "Computer programs for demographic analysis", developed by the US Bureau of the Census: "Computer programs for demographic estimation", developed at the US National Academy of Sciences, and the "Population projection computer program", developed by the UN Population Division. The software packages are evaluated in respect of their function, required computing configuration, transportability, and readability of source code to assist users in determining the adaptability of the programs to their computer configurations. To enhance these programs' utility, DTCD is planning to test, edit, and adapt them to suit specific computer configurations in developing countries. (author's modified)
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