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  1. 1
    098426

    Population, projections, and policy: a cautionary perspective.

    Stycos JM

    Madison, Wisconsin, Midwest Universities Consortium for International Activities, Environmental and Natural Resources Policy and Training Project [EPAT/MUCIA], 1994 Jun. [4], 15 p. (Working Paper No. 12)

    Population-related policy-makers should pay attention to the weaknesses in the data bases used to project population. Country variations, particularly in developing countries, are reflected in data deficiencies in birth and death registration and migration. Variations may be affected by higher rates of marriage, declines in sexually transmitted diseases, or reduced breast-feeding practices. The reliance on a single projection may appear easier, but alternative plans may be necessary as an appropriate response to the lack of certainty in projections. The medium estimate may be best used as a target for family planning or development, but plans must proceed for development of employment, services, infrastructure, and environmental quality due to population increases. Demographers should be wary of labels such as "most likely." Disseminating agencies should invest in data quality improvements, institutionalize surveys and alternate focuses, and develop more complex models. The UN's population projections show 31 countries that had constant fertility between 1960 and 1990, but reduced medium projections in population with reduced fertility of three to four children per woman over the next 30 years. How this is possible with no statistical evidence of decline makes the projection questionable. Declines in world population stagnated during the 1980s due to limited declines in fertility in India and China and the end to new fertility declines in other countries. Age structure has contributed to high birth rates, which offers the most hope for fertility change in the future. The medium UN projection for 2100 is rather optimistic if it assumes Chinese fertility will be below replacement level early in the century. Even the chief of the UN Population Division has considered that the high variant projections are more plausible than the medium variants. The US Census Bureau's projections may be considered high but are really reasonable middle projections. The UN and the World Bank revise projections every two years. Inherent in UN projections is the fallacious assumption that an orderly process will prevail without war, famine, or new epidemics.
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  2. 2
    076953

    World population projections, 1987-88 edition. Short- and long-term estimates.

    Zachariah KC; Vu MT

    Baltimore, Maryland/London, England, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988. lvi, 439 p.

    This is the tenth in a series of population projections prepared by the World Bank and the third to be published separately. The introduction summarizes the methodology and assumptions and also "presents a brief history of the Bank's projections, delineates the sources of the principal data used, compares the Bank's estimates with those of the United Nations and other organizations, and provides summary demographic information on the new country groupings (by World Bank operational region and department) created by the recent reorganization of the Bank." The projections are given by age group and sex for five-year intervals up to the year 2030 for countries and regions. (EXCERPT)
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